Prediction: $800 by April

[Elwar]

Based upon past capitulation events and with a floor of $400/BTC I predict that the price of Bitcoin will reach $800 by April.

Based on the numbers at that point, those that have been through this a few times should be able to get an idea of the next peak.

[escrow.ms]

It will for sure.

[wobber]

I don't think so... Seems people are really panicked about what happened. Maybe a 600 at max, but also lowers into 200s?

[Elwar]

I don't think so... Seems people are really panicked about what happened. Maybe a 600 at max, but also lowers into 200s?

Well, I hope it is gradual over the course of the month. Otherwise it would be too fast. If it takes the whole month then we will be on pace for a new ATH. Too early, and it is just regular volatility.

[escrow.ms]

Well last year we didn't had so many buyers, but now whole world knows about bitcoins, so if hike/bubble started again it will reach new ATH for sure even without china.

[wobber]

I don't think so... Seems people are really panicked about what happened. Maybe a 600 at max, but also lowers into 200s?

Well, I hope it is gradual over the course of the month. Otherwise it would be too fast. If it takes the whole month then we will be on pace for a new ATH. Too early, and it is just regular volatility.

It won't be much of ATH if it goes to 1330 or so, and down to 500s again. Still, I don't think we can see new ATH this year.

LE: I mean, who's gonna buy all those 3600 btc/day?

[Miz4r]

Let's see how this whole thing plays out first. It could be like the Silk Road crash, with the media all wondering about why the price is holding up so well despite MtGox lying in ruins. There's no such thing as negative publicity for Bitcoin, everyone thought the Silk Road shutdown would be disastrous for Bitcoin but it wasn't. I tend to believe the same thing may be true for the shutdown (or takeover) of MtGox. Whatever happens, these are exciting times for sure.

[porcupine87]

LE: I mean, who's gonna buy all those 3600 btc/day?

Noone has to buy the new mined coins. Do you think all miners sell instantly?

This is a "everything is possible"-year. I think we reach a new ATH before July. Depending on the news which I don't know.

[wobber]

Let's see how this whole thing plays out first. It could be like the Silk Road crash, with the media all wondering about why the price is holding up so well despite MtGox lying in ruins. There's no such thing as negative publicity for Bitcoin, everyone thought the Silk Road shutdown would be disastrous for Bitcoin but it wasn't. I tend to believe the same thing may be true for the shutdown (or takeover) of MtGox. Whatever happens, these are exciting times for sure.

By no means I want to make people feel stupid, but there's almost no reason for the Gox-Scam-Incompetence to affect the bitcoin price. I'm satisfied of what I saw last 3 weeks, Bitcoin did really well ignoring MtGox. And still does.

But, trend is trend so we'll see lower also.

[Miz4r]

Bitcoin did NOT ignore MtGox lol, you must be really oblivious if you think that.

[smoothie]

MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.

[wobber]

Bitcoin did NOT ignore MtGox lol, you must be really oblivious if you think that.

Considering I was expecting price to really pop to 200s... i'm still amazed.

[checkers6676]

im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

[GigaCoin]

I must admit i saw the prices going lower after waking up to the Gox news. The dip to $400 unfortunately happened when i was asleep so for me it doesn't count, i managed to buy in this dip at $475 with some Fiat.

[Torque]

I must admit i saw the prices going lower after waking up to the Gox news. The dip to $400 unfortunately happened when i was asleep so for me it doesn't count, i managed to buy in this dip at $475 with some Fiat.

Same here, bought just before the dive to $400.  Still managed to get some more under $500.

We might go sideways for a while instead of steadily up, but didn't it do the same after June's final capitulation?

[Cyberlight]

MTGOX shutdown is like a Silk Road shutdown from last october.

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1054541

In perspective.

[Obi-Wan Coinobi]

One bad apple spoils the bunch, but doesn't ruin apples...they are good! Now, more people know about apples and we will all be eating apple pie soon. (sorry, I ran away with the apple analogy)

[mjsbuddha]

im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

why? price didn't jump last time. with a daily exchange volume in hundreds of thousands of coins, newly mined coins make up like 2% of the daily volume. Mining rewards are just to small a percentage to effect price much.

[hostmaster]

Based upon past capitulation events and with a floor of $400/BTC I predict that the price of Bitcoin will reach $800 by April.

Based on the numbers at that point, those that have been through this a few times should be able to get an idea of the next peak.

yes i also think so.

[ThatDGuy]

im holding my btc until the next block reward halving.

why? price didn't jump last time. with a daily exchange volume in hundreds of thousands of coins, newly mined coins make up like 2% of the daily volume. Mining rewards are just to small a percentage to effect price much.

Didn't the last halving happen in December 2012?  April 2013 wasn't too far after that.

Granted, there were other things going on, but I absolutely think that reward halving has an effect - even if it's largely psychological at first.