[PETAMINE] Share Price Speculation Thread

[anon29426]

As a long time lurker in the other thread I think its about time we make a separate thread to discuss price speculation. We have too many opinion pieces in the other thread and its getting slightly out of control. To put it simply, its not good to have speculation going on the in the main thread, it is very confusing to new investors.

Please see below the latest update i have from CryptX

Dear Shareholders,

First of all we like to thank you for your patience and your confidence in our team and our business.

A little history to remind early shareholders and inform new shareholders what has happened so far.  We started trading on btct.co mid-August and set a goal of 1 GH/s per share to be deployed with Cointerra systems in December. Soon after this we decided to do an incentive for our shareholders and set up our first mine with custom made Bitfury systems free for all shareholders. We mined a couple of weeks and paid a total dividend of 915 BTC. In the meantime btct.co closed and we moved our stock to Cryptostocks.com.  After taking a vote, we decided to sell all the hardware to obtain more hashrate to be deployed in the mid-December mine. As a result all shares became entitled to 2.4 GH/s. We also made the decision to split our risk between Cointerra and Bitmine and we moved to Havelockinvestements because of the strict regulations on that exchange.

We have done everything in our power to start the mining as soon as possible. To do so, we have split the risk between two different hardware suppliers. Unfortunately, like 90% in this business, there have been delays with both of them. Our datacenter is ready to receive the miners for weeks now, so up till last week it was a frustrating waiting game for all of us.

We really believe in our project the PETAMINE and have invested a lot of time and money in it. We have set an ambitious goal to obtain and retain a minimum of 2% of the network.

To achieve this 2% goal, these factors are of crucial importance:

1.      Start date of the PETAMINE
2.      Initial hashrate of the PETAMINE
3.      Speed and cost of reinvestment
4.      Hosting capacity


1.      Start date of the PETAMINE

We suffered delays which were out of our control. Nevertheless we are proud to have started the deployment of the mine on the 13th of February. The progress of deployment can be followed here:
http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1PETAmNrgdzx3FwzJPNuhx18JVKdGtwWt6

2.      Initial hashrate of the PETAMINE

Our initial contract stated a hashrate of 1 GH/s per share which we were able to increase to 2.4 GH/s per share thanks to the Bitfury hardware sale.

Due to current delays in delivery and because of the crucial importance of the initial hashrate of the PETAMINE, we like to announce that WE WILL DEPLOY AN ASTONISHING 700 TH/S INSTEAD OF THE PROMISED 230 TH/S. This means a hashrate of 8.68 GH/S PER SHARE OR 3 TIMES THE PROMISED HASHRATE! We are confident that this is the extra push the PETAMINE needs to really excel! You can find the confirmed deployment schedule below.

CryptX will remain the right to IPO the remaining 19,326 shares at an equal hashrate per share at the time of the IPO, so no dilution is possible. This enables us to give the PETAMINE an extra boost of minimum 170 TH/s.

3.      Speed and cost of reinvestment

A lot of the success of the PETAMINE will depend on how and when the 35% reinvestment funds will be used. To ensure a fast deployment at a low cost, we decided to produce our own mining hardware based on the A1 chips. To accomplish this, we have currently 3 teams working on 3 different designs. We will choose the most optimal design in terms of costs and convenience for our production.
We also secured a huge chip deal which enables us to manufacture our own mining hardware.

4.      Hosting capacity

We own our own datacenter which has currently a capacity up to 750 TH/s, which enables us to deploy very fast and use custom designed hardware. We have engineered a standard unit with a hosting capacity of 500 TH/s, which can be installed fully operational in a matter of weeks. This enables us to expand at a very fast pace.

CryptX has invested a lot in our current datacenter and will have to do so in the future. The applied hosting costs of 0.45$/kwh includes all costs for the PETAMINE, so no extra electricity costs, maintenance costs, operational costs, management fees or any other costs will be charged.

Deployment schedule:

Cointerra
Currently:      26 TerraMiners fully deployed
Next week:      4 TerraMiners

Bitmine:
Currently:      8 Coincraft Desks fully deployed
Next week:      62 Coincraft Desks
Week 10:        55 Coincraft Rigs
Week 11:        55 Coincraft Rigs
Week 12:        55 Coincraft Rigs
Week 13-15:     250 TH/s of custom hardware together with the first reinvestment units

Please see below to a link to PETAMINE's hashing statistics.

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1PETAmNrgdzx3FwzJPNuhx18JVKdGtwWt6

Does anyone have an updated spreadsheet with the 700TH/s delivery numbers?

[ujka]

Updated spreadsheet linked. If you are interested in a quick look at what dividends it calculates - 0.078btc/share.
I changed few things, mostly btc exchange rate. Set that at $550, and with 1% increase/10 days. Goes to $750 in 2015. Somehow low

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqR6B1kLN7bvdF9EemNGeVBKdDE5MWZtdkFBYk9SY3c&output=html&richtext=true

That second question now is, at what price will shares be?
If 0.078 is annual dividend, and we (shareholders) settle with a PE of 4 (yield 25%), it's 0.312 btc/share.

[karol]

Second assumption - in time hosting fee (power) will be lower per ghs - will be new more efficient chips with better kwh/ghs ratio.

[mikemikemike]

Updated spreadsheet linked. If you are interested in a quick look at what dividends it calculates - 0.078btc/share.
I changed few things, mostly btc exchange rate. Set that at $550, and with 1% increase/10 days. Goes to $750 in 2015. Somehow low

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqR6B1kLN7bvdF9EemNGeVBKdDE5MWZtdkFBYk9SY3c&output=html&richtext=true

That second question now is, at what price will shares be?
If 0.078 is annual dividend, and we (shareholders) settle with a PE of 4 (yield 25%), it's 0.312 btc/share.

The P/E on AM is 12, that would put the Petamine price at 0.936.

any idea why the shares are valued so low? im starting to think some people know something about petamine i don't

i'm expecting a massive rise over the next two weeks as we reach full deployment

[ujka]

Many are still waiting for first dividends to arrive before making any decision. Will be late

[Anotheranonlol]

Updated spreadsheet linked. If you are interested in a quick look at what dividends it calculates - 0.078btc/share.
I changed few things, mostly btc exchange rate. Set that at $550, and with 1% increase/10 days. Goes to $750 in 2015. Somehow low

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqR6B1kLN7bvdF9EemNGeVBKdDE5MWZtdkFBYk9SY3c&output=html&richtext=true

That second question now is, at what price will shares be?
If 0.078 is annual dividend, and we (shareholders) settle with a PE of 4 (yield 25%), it's 0.312 btc/share.

The P/E on AM is 12, that would put the Petamine price at 0.936.

any idea why the shares are valued so low? im starting to think some people know something about petamine i don't

i'm expecting a massive rise over the next two weeks as we reach full deployment

The price is low in my opinion. As investor you need to decide whether you believe CryptX stated goal of  sustaining 2% (or more) of total global hash-rate is achievable, then settle on what a reasonable time-frame on a return is for you based upon dividend calculations and your buy-in price.

Bitcoin markets can be at times predicatably irrational, and irrationally predictable
In this case you will see an example, as hashrate increases, share-price will also increase, yet the news has already been publicized and it should already be priced in. maybe some think it's a safer bet buying on the up, when something is demonstrated and proven. In some cases it is, but buying low is safe bet when you already know others will buy on the up and you believe what's stated.

[trek27]

The price is low in my opinion. As investor you need to decide whether you believe CryptX stated goal of  sustaining 2% (or more) of total global hash-rate is achievable, then settle on what a reasonable time-frame on a return is for you based upon dividend calculations and your buy-in price.

+1

[ujka]

CryptX announced, dividend will be paid this Friday, Feb 28th.

[mikemikemike]

Updated spreadsheet linked. If you are interested in a quick look at what dividends it calculates - 0.078btc/share.
I changed few things, mostly btc exchange rate. Set that at $550, and with 1% increase/10 days. Goes to $750 in 2015. Somehow low

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqR6B1kLN7bvdF9EemNGeVBKdDE5MWZtdkFBYk9SY3c&output=html&richtext=true

That second question now is, at what price will shares be?
If 0.078 is annual dividend, and we (shareholders) settle with a PE of 4 (yield 25%), it's 0.312 btc/share.

If you use the original PETAMINE forecast and just move the dates for a 700TH/s start in April you get an annual dividend of 0.132. check it out

[ujka]

That was with btc at $1000 (new hardware priced in $ - less bitcoins go to reinvest and hosting, more for dividends)

[trek27]

CryptX announced, dividend will be paid this Friday, Feb 28th.

and shares a bit higher     but only progress on deployment can really entice new buyers.

[Wayne_Chang]

We will have first dividend this Friday. Hope the share price will increase after.

[Elvis Trout]

The AM PE ratio is not a good comparison at the moment. At it's peak it was about 30% yield. But now all the people who bought in are just holding out of desperation rather than expecting a decent return.

[ujka]

The AM PE ratio is not a good comparison at the moment. At it's peak it was about 30% yield. But now all the people who bought in are just holding out of desperation rather than expecting a decent return.

AM shareholders are holding because of high expectations on return from gen3 hardware.
About yield, you're right - it was about 30%. That was I used in my post above.

[ujka]

I stopped reading at

For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month.

So, the network hashrate in April will grow for 50'000 TH.
 1'700 TH added per day?

sure, next month 2,400 TH added per day, the next month 4,8000 TH per day, the month after 8,600 TH per day, the month after 17,200 per day, month after 34,400 per day, 64,800 , 128,600. everything can be totally exponential  

December ends with 11'500'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH?

Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh)

I don't need mining then, I'll go now and buy 1BTC, and I'm good. For life! (with constant 80% increase, bitcoin HAS to be over $2'000'000 in 2015, even with new chips 0.3J/GH)  

[ujka]

I used $0.1/kwh.  Can go lower, $0.05/kwh. Bitcoin only at $1'000'000 to support that. I'll still be good with my 1btc   (well, maybe better I buy 2 now

And power used - 4'000 GW. What capacity are nuclear plants? 1GW? Ah, just 4'000 nuclear power plants for bitcoin network. No problem.

Oh, no, what wikianswers says - there are only 439 nuclear reactors in the world?

[hephaist0s]

It's been 3 days since we had breathtakingly good news. I'm selling everything.

[Usman056]

The AM PE ratio is not a good comparison at the moment. At it's peak it was about 30% yield. But now all the people who bought in are just holding out of desperation rather than expecting a decent return.

AM shareholders are holding because of high expectations on return from gen3 hardware.
About yield, you're right - it was about 30%. That was I used in my post above.

I'd like to see the math on that, i'm pretty sure that if you take into account the btc price change and bought in at IPO of .1,  the P/E is alot higher than 30%. the prices peaked at 4.5 to 5 BTC per share.

[ujka]

The AM PE ratio is not a good comparison at the moment. At it's peak it was about 30% yield. But now all the people who bought in are just holding out of desperation rather than expecting a decent return.

AM shareholders are holding because of high expectations on return from gen3 hardware.
About yield, you're right - it was about 30%. That was I used in my post above.

I'd like to see the math on that, i'm pretty sure that if you take into account the btc price change and bought in at IPO of .1,  the P/E is alot higher than 30%. the prices peaked at 4.5 to 5 BTC per share.

Found that post (P/E calculated on the actual share price, not IPO price):

With that kind of earnings, what kind of PE ratio are we looking at for the company ...  in this industry?

If we use that yield to be 33% of the share price, that gives 0.27 btc/share
25% -- 0.36 btc/share

I googled PE ratio in general, and read that on average it's 20-25 times earnings.
Don't expect that for a company in bitcoin mining bussiness. Not yet. All ppl here are only for a quick profit.

PE ratio in this industry is about 3-4 times - if we look at data for ASICMiner:
15.07.2013 - share price: 4.5; divs: 0.025; projected per year: 1.3; PE: 3.5
15.08.2013 - share price: 3.9; divs: 0.021; projected per year: 1.1; PE: 3.5
09.09.2013 - share price: 2.2; divs: 0.014; projected per year: 0.7; PE: 3.1

[trek27]

It's been 3 days since we had breathtakingly good news. I'm selling everything.

Your move turned out to be very well timed.
Both lack of deployment progress and recent Havelock issues are weighing on the price.

[karol]

Yes, we should be 220TH (before increase to 700TH) now instead of 50TH.
So what  he announced 700th, but that are only words - we still have only 50th currently

[qwertyqwerty]

It's been 3 days since we had breathtakingly good news. I'm selling everything.

Your move turned out to be very well timed.
Both lack of deployment progress and recent Havelock issues are weighing on the price.

Actually I would of thought that was sarcasm  
 selling shares @ 25% less than a day ago because first weeks deployment a little slower (although still on track with schedule written on site) is very short-sighted.

[ujka]

Yes, we should be 220TH (before increase to 700TH) now instead of 50TH.
So what  he announced 700th, but that are only words - we still have only 50th currently

Yes, still at 50th. But we would be at 50th no matter what the initial promise was - 220 or announced 700, now all depend on how fast the production at bitmine.ch is. Hope is, that special production line Bitmine opened for Petamine will keep with deployment plan. Strange that no new devices arrived this week.

[karol]

OOO new miners coming on line

[hephaist0s]

It's been 3 days since we had breathtakingly good news. I'm selling everything.

Your move turned out to be very well timed.
Both lack of deployment progress and recent Havelock issues are weighing on the price.

Actually I would of thought that was sarcasm  
 selling shares @ 25% less than a day ago because first weeks deployment a little slower (although still on track with schedule written on site) is very short-sighted.

It was sarcasm. *sigh*

[trek27]

It's been 3 days since we had breathtakingly good news. I'm selling everything.

Your move turned out to be very well timed.
Both lack of deployment progress and recent Havelock issues are weighing on the price.

Actually I would of thought that was sarcasm  
 selling shares @ 25% less than a day ago because first weeks deployment a little slower (although still on track with schedule written on site) is very short-sighted.

It was sarcasm. *sigh*

Sorry, I was sure you had managed to sell around 0.11-0.115

[ujka]

0.00040211 btc/share, it's on havelock.