Are we finally seeing bitcoin capitulation?

[OgNasty]

Today is one of the highest volume days we have had in months.  The only two days in the last couple of months that compare were a result of hacks on exchanges and "banks" that led to massive amounts of stolen coins hitting the market.  Today the volume selloff appears to be completely due to fear.  Could we finally be seeing the bitcoin capitulation that would signal a market bottom? 

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[danman87]

It's not done yet.

[bitleaker]

It's not done yet.

^this

I've said before that I believe that the true price of BTC is between $1 and $2. It looks as though the market is stabilising back to it's true value.

[proudhon]

It's not done yet.

I agree.  I've said this before, but people often forget that a vast quantity of bitcoins were acquired at prices well under $1.  There are plenty of people with loads of bitcoins who could still panic/capitulate.  As those people continue to dump what they've held onto the decline will accelerate and it's not hard to imagine bitcoin prices well under $1 by the end of the year.  I'm confident now that we won't see prices over $5 for the rest of 2011.

[mobodick]

[Technomage]

I don't think we'll actually reach "despair" because everyone knows it's impossible for Bitcoins to become totally worthless at this stage. Simply because there is real demand, even if it's small, and because there are more and more players involved who could cause a significant rally the lower we go. At these prices medium players become potential market makers.

Some will undoubtedly panic but there are many that have already decided that they won't sell because the price is too low. Price going to $1.x or even below $1 would not make them sell more urgently. It would be depressing if you're holding BTC but the lower it goes the more it'll seem like it's "too late" to sell.

This is why I think we're already at or very close to the bottom. There is still a possibility for a dip to $1.x but that will very likely be a short lived one because not many are happy to sell at those prices, however buying at $1.x is extremely attractive. And again, if enough people think like this, it might not even break $2.

I see that a lot of people are currently expecting the price to still drop more, which means it might not drop much. That is because those people have already made their exit, unable to cause any further downward pressure.

[OgNasty]

That is because those people have already made their exit, unable to cause any further downward pressure.

That is a good description of what I think we've seen this morning and sounds like capitulation to me.  Looks like it came to a head about 2 hours ago.  The charts look like they're telling me we could end the day around $2.50-$2.70 and the low has already been put in.  We'll see...

[anu]

What a really stupid question this is. The rest of the bubble went away. So?

[pent]

Today is one of the highest volume days we have had in months.  The only two days in the last couple of months that compare were a result of hacks on exchanges and "banks" that led to massive amounts of stolen coins hitting the market.  Today the volume selloff appears to be completely due to fear.  Could we finally be seeing the bitcoin capitulation that would signal a market bottom? 

there is a russian saying which describes this situation:

- нac eбyт, a мы кpeпчaeм

which is translated approximately to:

- owned ass makes us stronger

 

[Nagle]

Today is one of the highest volume days we have had in months.

Not really. Look at volume in dollars.



Volume in Bitcoins is going up as the price declines. Volume in currency is going down.

[Doug Rudd]

I think the price of Bitcoin is headed for parity. And when I say parity, I don't mean with the USD, I mean parity with all the other alternative crypto-currencies.

[anu]

I think the price of Bitcoin is headed for parity. And when I say parity, I don't mean with the USD, I mean parity with all the other alternative crypto-currencies.

Does that mean they all will have exactly the same value per unit?

[Revalin]

It's not done yet.

+1, but I'd like to add:  The dead cat is going to bounce like a rubber ball.  This isn't going to be over for a long while.

It may never be over to my satisfaction, which is when we see volatility get to the single digits per month.

[OgNasty]

Dare I say it was capitulation we were witnessing?

[proudhon]

It's not done yet.

I agree.  I've said this before, but people often forget that a vast quantity of bitcoins were acquired at prices well under $1.  There are plenty of people with loads of bitcoins who could still panic/capitulate.  As those people continue to dump what they've held onto the decline will accelerate and it's not hard to imagine bitcoin prices well under $1 by the end of the year.  I'm confident now that we won't see prices over $5 for the rest of 2011.

I still think I'm going to be right about that one.

[Qoheleth]

If you mean the 5$ part, yeah. The fact that we made it from 3$ to 4$ so fast is itself pretty amazing; going from 4$ to 5$ in the 10 days we have left is really too much for anyone to hope for.

If you mean the "well under 1$" part, well, I think at this point closing the year at that price is even less likely than closing above 5$.

[proudhon]

I think at this point closing the year at that price is even less likely than closing above 5$.

I think you're right.

[flyguy]

had to bring this one back from the dead

[antimattercrusader]

When I saw proudhon, I was like.. wait... he's back on the speculation subform? WHAT? Oh wait, 2011.

I was also quite surprised he predicted we'd see sub $1 prices. Oh, 2011.

[PenAndPaper]

It's just people panicking and try to guess the bottom. Some capitulation is happening of course but it's mostly panic and speculation.