What if MtGox makes good?

[bitcoin50k]

Is really nobody considering this scenario?  Josh Jones as bitcoinbuilder.com thinks MtGox is OK.  I'm with Josh!

You?

[Ibian]

Is this the bargaining stage?

[matt4054]

BFL customers also believed 'Josh' when he said two weeks...

IMO MtGox is obviously insolvent, and those arbing GOXBTC are just asking for trouble.

[bitcoin50k]

I think we are talking abt a dif Josh.

[CrashX]

I my self purchase some goxBTC at Josh's site.  I don't mind if I loose them if the site doesn't come back.

ANY INVESTMENT FOR  GOXBTC SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDER  VERY HIGH RISK. - I don't want you tell me, I follow your lead and lost my life savings or something.

[YipYip]

Is this the bargaining stage?

yup   

[bitcoin50k]

BFL customers also believed 'Josh' when he said two weeks...

IMO MtGox is obviously insolvent, and those arbing GOXBTC are just asking for trouble.

I should have listened...Josh also changed his tune tdy; I'm out of bitcoinbuilder after losing abt 5 BTC.  Moving on...

[njcarlos]

Josh also changed his tune tdy; I'm out of bitcoinbuilder after losing abt 5 BTC.  Moving on...

What's this about, can you elaborate?

[mmouse]

It would be very easy for Gox to prove that they are solvent. Just put a reasonable amount of coins in some addresses and sign a message with the corresponding keys.

The fact alone that they aren't doing so at this stage of the drama tells everything.

[bitcoin50k]

Josh also changed his tune tdy; I'm out of bitcoinbuilder after losing abt 5 BTC.  Moving on...

What's this about, can you elaborate?

It's abt playing gox/BTC on bitcoinbuilder.com.  Yesterday, bitcoinbuilder's Josh Jones's employee wrote me in an email that they still think that MtGox is OK.  Today, it's a different story on their site.  That made me quit arbing.

[kireinaha]

BFL customers also believed 'Josh' when he said two weeks...

IMO MtGox is obviously insolvent, and those arbing GOXBTC are just asking for trouble.

I should have listened...Josh also changed his tune tdy; I'm out of bitcoinbuilder after losing abt 5 BTC.  Moving on...

i guess you only have 49,995 bitcoin now? still not bad...

[yomofo]

sorry guys.  Gox is done. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/bitcoin-exchange-mt-gox-shutdown-said-to-be-probed-by-u-s-.html

https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/438858500601831426



the full story is now circulating.  ppl are lawyering up.  the btc foundation went to the Feds to ask for a mtgox probe.  they would only do this for CRIMINAL matters.


wow!  (speculation) mtgox was a ponzi running a fractional reserve for years.

[derpinheimer]

sorry guys.  Gox is done. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/bitcoin-exchange-mt-gox-shutdown-said-to-be-probed-by-u-s-.html

https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/438858500601831426



the full story is now circulating.  ppl are lawyering up.  the btc foundation went to the Feds to ask for a mtgox probe.  they would only do this for CRIMINAL matters.


wow!  (speculation) mtgox was a ponzi running a fractional reserve for years.

What would they gain from being a fractional reserve 

[bitcoin50k]

BFL customers also believed 'Josh' when he said two weeks...

IMO MtGox is obviously insolvent, and those arbing GOXBTC are just asking for trouble.

I should have listened...Josh also changed his tune tdy; I'm out of bitcoinbuilder after losing abt 5 BTC.  Moving on...

i guess you only have 49,995 bitcoin now? still not bad...

I wish!  My screen name is simply wishful thinking for 1 BTC being worth $50,000.  We got a ways to go.  I own 4 BTC right now.

[Peter R]

What would they gain from being a fractional reserve  

WARNING: PURE SPECULATION

I'm changing my tune.  Yesterday I thought the 750,000 BTC figure was FUD to get certain Gox creditors to voluntarily accept 10 cents on the dollar for their GoxBTC.  The theory I'm leaning towards now is that the 750,000 BTC figure is true and Gox has indeed been operating as a fractional reserve.    

The theory is that sometime in 2011--probably after the crash from $30 to $10--MtGox was lax with security and a group of thieves or hackers was able to steal about 500,000 to 1,000,000 BTC.  At the time, this only represented $10 million dollars.  

To avoid discrediting bitcoin and embarrassing himself, Mark pretended that nothing happened.  He knew that BTC withdrawals were roughly balanced by BTC deposits (typical fractional reserve banking) and he hoped to slowly earn back the bitcoins through trading fees.  

Meanwhile, the thieves worked to mix their coins with non-stolen coins and slowly sold them off, thereby driving the bitcoin price eventually to $2 later in the fall of 2011.  It was this extra selling pressure that continued through the remainder of 2011 and 2012 that kept the price of bitcoin artificially depressed.

Meanwhile MtGox was buying coins whenever it had spare cash.  But as the price of bitcoin exploded in the spring of 2013 they saw their liabilities in $ terms increase tremendously.  But at this point they had to keep going, even using customer deposit money to buy coins from other exchanges or individuals.

The problems at MtGox (probably due to extreme stress of MK) got worse, and MtGox lost market share, slowly dwindling down MtGox's small supply of coins.  

MtGox purposely mixed immature coins into withdrawal transactions, and later used the malleability excuses, all to buy time to somehow get more coins and make good on withdrawals.  

But eventually all hope was lost.  Their supply of coins dwindled down to 2,000 BTC while their bitcoin liability were a huge 750,000 BTC.  

And here we are today.  If this theory is correct, there are 750,000 less bitcoins in existence than what everyone thought.  

[bitcoin50k]

What would they gain from being a fractional reserve  

WARNING: PURE SPECULATION

I'm changing my tune.  Yesterday I thought the 750,000 BTC figure was FUD to get certain Gox creditors to voluntarily accept 10 cents on the dollar for their GoxBTC.  The theory I'm leaning towards now is that the 750,000 BTC figure is true and Gox has indeed been operating as a fraction reserve.    

The theory is that sometime in 2011--probably after the crash from $30 to $10--MtGox was lax with security and a group of thieves or hackers was able to steal about 500,000 to 1,000,000 BTC.  At the time, this only represented $10 million dollars.  

To avoid discrediting bitcoin and embarrassing himself, Mark pretended that nothing happened.  He knew that BTC withdrawals were roughly balanced by BTC deposits (typical fraction reserve banking) and he hoped to slowly earn back the bitcoins through trading fees.  

Meanwhile, the thieves worked to mix their coins with non-stolen coins and slowly sold them off, thereby driving the bitcoin price eventually to $2 later in the fall of 2011.  It was this extra selling pressure that continued through the remainder of 2011 and 2012 that kept the price of bitcoin artificially depressed.

Meanwhile MtGox was buying coins whenever it had spare cash.  But as the price of bitcoin exploded in the spring of 2013 they saw their liabilities in $ terms increase tremendously.  But at this point they had to keep going, even using customer deposit money to buy coins from other exchanges or individuals.

The problems at MtGox (probably due to extreme stress of MK) got worse, and MtGox lost market share, slowly dwindling down MtGox's small supply of coins.  

MtGox purposely mixed immature coins into withdrawal transactions, and later used the malleability excuses, all to buy time to somehow get more coins and make good on withdrawals.  

But eventually all hope was lost.  Their supply of coins dwindled down to 2,000 BTC while their bitcoin liability were a huge 750,000 BTC.  

And here we are today.  If this theory is correct, there are 750,000 less bitcoins in existence than what everyone thought.  

Who's theory is this?  It makes no sense, with due respect!  R U saying that the price of BTC should bounce because 750 k are gone?...

[derpinheimer]

What would they gain from being a fractional reserve  

Who's theory is this?  It makes no sense, with due respect!  R U saying that the price of BTC should bounce because 750 k are gone?...

I dont.. see where he said that?
 

What would they gain from being a fractional reserve  

Sounds more reasonable than anything else I've read, but its still hard to believe they could hang on this long with that kind of debt though.

[matt4054]

And here we are today.  If this theory is correct, there are 750,000 less bitcoins in existence than what everyone thought.

I agree (in "speculating mode") with most of your post, but I fail to understand the 750KBTC LOST COINS theory (you're not the first to come up with it). If they were stolen, what makes you think they are destroyed? I would believe the thieves have secured and/or resold them already, so they are still in circulation, not destroyed.

[Peter R]

Who's theory is this?  It makes no sense, with due respect!

I have no idea whether this is correct.  That's why I wrote "WARNING: PURE SPECULATION."

The bottom line is that there's no way MtGox didn't notice a slow theft of 750,000 BTC.  My three contending theories in current order of preference are:

#1.  What I posted above.
#2.  The 750,000 BTC figure is FUD designed to buy-out GoxBTC for cheap and close the (smaller) solvency gap.  
#3.  The "Mark messed-up the private key to deep cold storage" theory.

R U saying that the price of BTC should bounce because 750 k are gone?...

If there are 750k BTC less than what everyone thought, I'd say that was very bullish, at least over the medium and long term.  

[derpinheimer]

And here we are today.  If this theory is correct, there are 750,000 less bitcoins in existence than what everyone thought.  

For this to be true, those coins would have to have been lost. Where in this scenario did this loss occur? If the hackers mixed coins and eventually resent them to Gox to sell them, how do we conclude that they were then lost?

Unless MK lost the private keys (unsubstantiated), those coins are still in the supply.

I think hes just saying "750k less coins than were thought to exist, exist"

As in, the 750k are gone to wherever and exist normally. However the 750k in Gox users' accounts? Well, it doesnt exist (But, they were actively traded on the exchange, so they "half existed" for awhile)