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Author Topic: Trading In the Bear | Checkout Whats Good & Bad |  (Read 160 times)
aoihs00
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August 13, 2018, 07:51:28 AM
Merited by frowsiter (5), googs84 (2), boyshx (2), Pursuer (1), mjglqw (1), darthmaul (1), eaglewhite80 (1)
 #1

Year 2018, its been rough year until now starting from the first day. When December 2017 hike came into effect then everyone thought that next year bitcoin and most of the Top altcoins will spike themselves by doubling themselves in volume. With that thought in mind most of the people invested heavily at wrong time.

That was the initial event when 2018 started. We surged through mega dump in the period January to February by dropping ourself to 16,000 USD and then 10,000 USD all the way down to 30-40% from ATH of December.

Traders Who Invested in December :

These people suffered a lot due to this kind of drop. They already went down by 40% from initial investment and there is no way they are going to recover that investment until the time they see 16K plus prices. But according to what I read over the forum most of the people with hard truth sold their coins already in the bear and incurred with huge losses ranging from 20-40%.

Learning : This event taught us that whenever the market goes many folds high then its the worst time to invest. Do not think that if the market has hiked itself heavily means it has become stronger and it will grow even further. No, that is the worst outcome you can predict from that. So whenever the crypto currency is in bull run ( ~ 20% + high from initial value) then its not the time to enter the market but to halt your trading operations.


Traders Who Invested in February to May :

These were the traders who had the excited state after the ATH's. They made investment whenever the price dropped below 10K USD during this period. We had 4-6 such occurrences when the BTC price moved from 10K to 8K USD and it was the exact time when you will see heavy rush in the market and more 24 hours volume than any other period. However this was too soon to predict that the BTC might go boom at anytime after tomorrow, then after day after tomorrow but nothing like that happened and BTC dropped even further to lowest of 2018 that is 6K USD by April midway. People took further shot of investing at this period and then this pumped the market to 8K USD by the end of May. They had great time with this peak because most of them got the profits as they invested during the trough and sold at crest. Perfect trade! But not the best one.  

Learning: Investment should not be done in excitement because it may result in some sort of loss which could be unprecedented. In this group not all the people got benefited because many of the bought the coins at 10K USD which was still the highest point until the May. However there were people who bought the bitcoin by looking at the bottom price of BTC which was around 6K USD. Nonetheless they made great profits after BTC started its wave off the trough reaching 8 to 10K USD. So the second group here analysed the situation by somewhat studying the bottom price and made the profits.


Traders Who Invested in May to August :

These are the group of investors who have already understood that this year is not so good for bitcoin and it is all surrounded with the Bearish Trend of bitcoin and even other coins indeed. This taught good lesson and people have now created strategy of buying bitcoin by investing only when they see the bottom rates. Sometimes it is hard to see the bottom rate but with the current years movement it is finalised that bitcoin will never go down to 5.5-6K USD looking at the current trade volume of bitcoin. This group will benefit the most in this year because they are probably holding their coins, they know very well 8, 10K USD is nothing but illusion and what they need to do is, to wait and see BTC moving above 10K USD to have proper sell of from the bear trend.

Leanring : The best thing to do is, research your "trade trend". After looking at 8 months of data one can surely state that we are not going off the bearish trend so easily and thus it might get difficult to get profits in such time. So the best way to keep buying at the troughs and whenever you see the bottom price. DONT rush the bitcoin selling whenever you see little green spikes, that would be mad decision to take because you are still selling in the Bear trend and not profiting with great % share.

Bear Fear

For those who are not capable of having control over their investment can do one easy stuff : They can go for the short term trading along with the swing mode.  Though we are in the bear mode then also crypto currencies keep fluctuating within that bear wave by 5-10% on a day or two basis. It can be done with careful selection of coins with such volatility and still have profits being in the bear. With the time you may think that Bear is nothing and just nausea which can be overcome very easily.



My Conclusion from 2018 "Trade Trend"

I was very much disappointed when I first saw the dumpsters in crypto currencies as my investment in versatile coins was going down very crazy. But over the period I did notice these troughs and crest and cant tell you how important they are while investing into the crypto. Whenever I see wide open graph of BTC or any currency then we can clearly see that from January to August every coin has made a wavy pattern with long troughs and crest and then you realise that you could have bought at lowest rates and that too many times and could have sold at high rates many more times. This way profiting yourself multiple times and by re-inevstign your profits.



Key Notes :

1) There is still great possibility that this trend will continue.
2) There is NO POINT in asking when moon will come, because you can still gain profits whether its bear or bull.
3) Bearish trend is just your fear, it doesnt matter for how long it will stay.
4) Try to look at the smaller picture rather than bigger one, because no one knows the future trends.
5) You don't really need TA and other analysts to let you know whats coming, because you can predict whats the trough and when is the crest to buy and sell.







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August 13, 2018, 09:08:59 AM
 #2

Great thread and analysis. Personally, I'm not really sad about the current market trends. I'm even excited because this is a great opportunity to buy at the bottom. As Warren Buffet said, "Be greedy when others are fearful". This doesn't mean that you should buy every coin out there, research is also important.

I believe in Bitcoin and blockchain technology, and that's why I believe the price will increase again in the future.

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August 13, 2018, 09:09:40 AM
 #3

That is a very descriptive approach towards the Trading in bear market like the current one. I guess its true that we should not be fearsome of this situation and must stay and trade by applying different smart strategies to make out way through it. Its not big deal when we are in bear if we keep thoughts like these one's and learn from the past experiences. It takes time to evaluate situation so its better to have patience and see what happened in the past to create better future.

Over the forum, there are many topics created which talk about FUD's, FOMO type of investment whenever the market is dropping and thus everyone start to create panic situation due to this bear market. May be this guide can be good approach for learning what can be done in the bear trend.Will help for most of the newbies truly and weak handed investors.  Smiley


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August 13, 2018, 09:29:06 AM
 #4

Quote
Research your trade trends!
A very nice and lovely write up and I like this part the more. One thing I have known over the years is that a lot of investors we see today are just trying to get rich quick and they have no idea how to even invest, take advantage of the market and even have some little bit knowledge of trading. There is no way you can invest in something you have no knowledge to guide you without making silly mistakes.

It does not take anything to learn trend following and stick with that as a strategy which works easily for most longer time frames, but I feel some are just too lazy to learn and that is where they will keep getting it all wrong.

There is absolutely no cutting of corners when it comes to any investment which may even be outside cryptocurrency, because, as long as you are not vast in the area you want to invest in, you will definitely fail unless you just end up getting lucky and just very few do. What just perturbs me is that people like such, always tend to blame others for their errors.

Nice write up once again and I hope a lot of people who need this will not be so lazy to read it.
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August 13, 2018, 09:48:56 AM
 #5

I think bearish trend will continue until 2019, bitcoin will never break $10.000 this year. Hodling makes me broke  Smiley

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August 13, 2018, 10:10:52 AM
 #6

Bear market is a good opportunity, it can make people get a lot of money, they just don’t know it at the time. We cannot be sure when the bear market ends. A bear market is probably the best time of all to research projects so keep researching, you might find some potential upcoming ICOs,  there are a ton of great projects right now that have good things coming up. Moreover, now is a good opportunity to take positions in coins you've been waiting to get hold of. Everything is so cheap right now.
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August 13, 2018, 10:11:40 AM
 #7

While I enjoyed reading you, I have some problems with what you wrote, first of all, your statement to not invest in the market if it is in uptrend 10%-20% is totally wrong and by your logic traders should have stopped buy BTC at $3000 or maximum $4000 and we would never have reached ATH mark $20000.

It is all about knowing when to get out and make an exit  with maximum profit from a certain trade, now this maximum profit does not have to be 10%-20% and all you have to do is just choose an exit point based on many different things the exit point can be 200% it really does not matter.

Trading has it up and down moments and no one can be in profit forever, and the most important thing in trading is to set a stop-loss, not anything else, not entering a market that already had 10%-20% uptrend is playing it too safe and will not make any decent profit as I mentioned above BTC was on uptrend from $3000 nonstop to $20000 and choosing to get out at $4000 or even at $5000 just means you missed the train to $20000.

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August 13, 2018, 11:54:24 AM
 #8

Not usually a fan of any sort of trading analysis but well done OP for at least giving some fresh perspective on the period since that amazing bull of December 2017 that is still fresh on all our minds.

Not a serious trader myself, but the good point is that traders consistently have strategies for all seasons - like you said, it doesn't matter the market sentiment or if the bear or bull is playing, good traders don't wait for the big opportunities to the point that they miss out on regular ones.

First time I've read nausea in an analysis. Apt description I'm sure many can relate to Wink

There is absolutely no cutting of corners when it comes to any investment which may even be outside cryptocurrency, because, as long as you are not vast in the area you want to invest in, you will definitely fail unless you just end up getting lucky and just very few do. What just perturbs me is that people like such, always tend to blame others for their errors.

Like Bitcoin teaches us to be responsible for our own funds, absolutely correct that traders should take responsibility for their trades. Profit or loss, own your decisions and learn from them.

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August 13, 2018, 12:06:40 PM
 #9

From the list of your key points, number 3 keep me realizing the reality inside this business, the bearish market is just inside our minds and if we build a good mindset regarding to this concerned we will be able to build better strategy and profitable position even in the down market.

This whole thread can help investors and traders to re assess how they embrace this unpredictable market, better to keep learning and studying those potential combination that will bring good results to our investment, just deal with changes and open your minds to a new sets of ideas.

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August 13, 2018, 12:14:14 PM
Merited by darthmaul (2)
 #10

good post. just some thoughts I have:

With that thought in mind most of the people invested heavily at wrong time.
lets focus on trading not investing because I can still argue that there is no bad time for investing in bitcoin if you consider it to go up in value and if you are not a trader. for example imagine someone who invested in bitcoin and doesn't want to trade back in 2013 at the peak when price was $1200. in in 5 years even after the drop he has made 400% profit or 80% per year. I'd say that is an excellent profit.

Quote
Learning : This event taught us that whenever the market goes many folds high then its the worst time to invest. Do not think that if the market has hiked itself heavily means it has become stronger and it will grow even further. No, that is the worst outcome you can predict from that. So whenever the crypto currency is in bull run ( ~ 20% + high from initial value) then its not the time to enter the market but to halt your trading operations.
I disagree because of the percentage that you included although you are generally right. there really isn't any percentage you can have in mind to call it the bull run is happened. for instance price went from $900 to $20000 in a year last year and that is 2122% rise. a 20% rise from 900 meant going to $1080. stopping there was a foolish move because price didn't stop until previous ATH of $1200 or the next round of rise was from that point to $2980 (148%).

things are even harder in altcoin market. some of them go at least 100% in one day before stopping!


Quote
it is finalised that bitcoin will never go down to 5.5-6K USD looking at the current trade volume of bitcoin.
one thing that I have learned about bitcoin is that you should never say never with confidence Tongue
with what we have seen so far I have also been saying that below $6k is impossible but I can not rule out unexpected incidents like a market wide panic when SEC rejects ETF in near future or some ridiculous other news like an exchange hack. all of which can bring down the price.
and I think this "fear" is one of the main reasons why we are not seeing any rises these days and the volume is not as high as it should be.

Quote
you could have bought at lowest rates and that too many times and could have sold at high rates many more times. This way profiting yourself multiple times and by re-inevstign your profits.
this is true although you need to remember that this type of trading is riskier because it requires a much better timing since sometimes that window of opportunity for buying or selling is too short.

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August 13, 2018, 05:12:46 PM
 #11

Thats great work really. I guess bear is like our own enemy and as long as we dont let it go we will not progress in this market. I guess I can relate myself with the whole situation that you have explained here, not investing at the right time or investing at the wrong time is biggest mistake we can do in the crypto. We should not be making investments blindly because each time period gives us different output so it matters a lot whenever we are investing here. I guess there are good lessons that can be taken from this.  Smiley

   

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August 13, 2018, 05:39:05 PM
 #12

It is really interesting for me how to trade and survive if you are a day trader, in the conditions of market falling, I mean if you are trading in uptrend it is quite easy to buy low and sell high but what are you going to do when it's all low?
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August 14, 2018, 07:01:42 AM
 #13

Quote
Bear Fear

For those who are not capable of having control over their investment can do one easy stuff : They can go for the short term trading along with the swing mode.  Though we are in the bear mode then also crypto currencies keep fluctuating within that bear wave by 5-10% on a day or two basis. It can be done with careful selection of coins with such volatility and still have profits being in the bear. With the time you may think that Bear is nothing and just nausea which can be overcome very easily.

This is what everyone should be looking for. To be honest most of the people on the forum are always afraid of the bear market and always start nerve wrecking reaction whenever they see the bitcoin or altcoins in the bear mode. They keep asking what they should do, whether they should be selling their capital or should they convert this to that and make thing look worse all the time and leading themselves to the loss and nothing else. This is best strategy to look after because its true that though there is bear then also there are up and down moments within that period. Nicely written OP.


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August 14, 2018, 07:10:43 AM
 #14

The bearish market has dominated cryptocurrencies market since January till now and I think the day traders are the people putting in money now.  That is why we keep see bitcoin getting pump and dump within week.  The investors are not really putting in money and the investors are the one that can put confidence into cryptocurrencies.

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August 14, 2018, 08:50:55 AM
 #15

I mean if you are trading in uptrend it is quite easy to buy low and sell high but what are you going to do when it's all low?

Not sure if that's the case.

It's way easier to make money on the way down than on the way up for me. Bitcoin has always been extremely unpredictable when it comes to its increases, while after a bull run it historically goes down with ~75% form its peak, and it happens time on time again. The 2014 bear market trapped me in like a noob, but this time it's different, and I hope it's the same for the people who got trapped in currently. Bear markets make strong future hodlers. What can be worse than going through a 75% decline? Cheesy

Tip; if the price ever is going through a bull run again, make sure you short a small percentage of your Bitcoin with a 2x leverage (don't recommend higher) and leave it open till you think the bottom is in. It could be seen as insurance for your investment, because the lower the price falls, the more you'll profit, and the more bearable it is for you.

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August 14, 2018, 09:33:57 AM
 #16

I really learn many thing from this situation of crypto market, crypto price become more unpredictable and too high volatility, so we have to be set goal how many profit we can make it and we have to out from the market when we make the goal, and i also should put profit from crypto in others asset that has lower risk.

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August 14, 2018, 09:36:58 AM
 #17

I think, bare market is a good opportunity to earn money. You can benefit from this very quickly. And Baer Market is a suitable time to invest here. Here's all ICOs are also very effective.

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August 14, 2018, 09:37:14 AM
 #18



Learning : This event taught us that whenever the market goes many folds high then its the worst time to invest. Do not think that if the market has hiked itself heavily means it has become stronger and it will grow even further. No, that is the worst outcome you can predict from that. So whenever the crypto currency is in bull run ( ~ 20% + high from initial value) then its not the time to enter the market but to halt your trading operations.

This piece of advice is golden and if possible I would have it framed but then again the market is a two-way which is we need people who believe in the hike  to bring the money so that others (the so called smart ones) will dump on them and make their profit. There would be no form of trading happening if everyone is a smart ass and refuses to invest.
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August 14, 2018, 01:25:29 PM
 #19

good post. just some thoughts I have:

one thing that I have learned about bitcoin is that you should never say never with confidence Tongue
with what we have seen so far I have also been saying that below $6k is impossible but I can not rule out unexpected incidents like a market wide panic when SEC rejects ETF in near future or some ridiculous other news like an exchange hack. all of which can bring down the price.
and I think this "fear" is one of the main reasons why we are not seeing any rises these days and the volume is not as high as it should be.

Quote
you could have bought at lowest rates and that too many times and could have sold at high rates many more times. This way profiting yourself multiple times and by re-inevstign your profits.
this is true although you need to remember that this type of trading is riskier because it requires a much better timing since sometimes that window of opportunity for buying or selling is too short.

Thanks for your thoughts.

I do believe that bitcoin won't be putting itself down below 5-6K USD window but again its ultimate fate is dependent upon various fundamentals.

However, it doesnt matter if bitcoin falls below that bottom because as I said with my analysis above, its just another opportunity for us to buy more bitcoin. With the past one thing is clear, bitcoin forms the wavy patterns does bounce back again and again. One can literally have periodic payments as profits from this beauty beast.  Cheesy







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August 15, 2018, 10:28:43 AM
 #20

After seeing the current deep movement of the bitcoin your post is looking more convincing to me because yes thats what happening right now. This is the another "trough" as per your analysis and thus a great chance to jump in and buy more coins. It feels perfect technique because as usual after few days or a week bitcoin will start pumping back to where it started (this time 8K USD again) and thus giving lot more profits one can imagine. Yes, now I believe that we need to see at "bigger picture" too. Like big wave under which we are seeing ups and downs here.


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