The crisis document claims they've lose 742,400 out of 744,400 coins and that they only have 2000 coins left.
Here is my prediction.
The theft related to the transaction malleability was small and probably only 5-20% of their actual funds - all it did was empty their hot wallet and force them to try to redeem their cold wallet. Imo, there is no chance that they lost 99.9% of their bitcoin from that theft, since it would have equated to 500-600 coins per day since mtgox's inception; or $50,000 a day in the long, sustained stable period of a average price of $100 usd/btc.
Upon trying to redeem their huge cold wallets with around 80% of the customer's 774,000 coins; Mark discovered that the private keys could not be recovered due to some bug in his own custom coded software. Ever since he's been stalling for time, trying to recover the keys to the private storage. The document is in fact real, and mark would rather cry theft than admit that he accidentally lost the keys to 772,000 coins. The document was being circulated to potential investors so that Mtgox could be bought and no one would ever know the true depth of Mark's incompetence.
The document was leaked by someone involved in the potential acquisition and that immediately destroyed some interest in the acquisition.
I still believe that Mtgox may be acquired or some outside experts may be brought in to recover the private keys.
The private keys may not be recoverable, and 600,000-700,000 coins are lost forever.
I think the above is good but I would add the following twist. Mtgox's reserves are recoverable but he only has 500k btcs and is short 240k btcs. He decided to "protect" the wealth of mtgox and hope for a buyer to make up the difference instead of shutting it down. Personally, he has stashed away some btcs for retirement.
