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Author Topic: Impending Change  (Read 1558 times)
Vandroiy
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October 19, 2011, 11:13:29 PM
 #1

I think we're at the height of the bust, the grand finale has already begun. The panic sells and downward force is so massive, I don't think psychological reasons are keeping price up any more.

The current cycle of panic and breaking hoarded coins loose is heating up to the limit. The lower prices go, the more powerful forces against it are. If this wasn't the maximum the bust had, we're reaching it soon. Exponential trends cannot continue forever, and we just had a super-exponential breakout. A mirror image of the 32-peak?

Judgment Day for the trend-followers, in my opinion.

TL;DR: unless everyone suddenly rates Bitcoin dead, this cannot go on. The current trend tries to run at zero within a month, this is not reasonable.

Edit: Oh, sure I wrote this after I bought some. Don't blame me if it drops further, I didn't say it won't, even kept some Dollars on Mt. Gox in case. I'm just saying I think there's a timeout of about a month on the madness.
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Cluster2k
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October 20, 2011, 01:02:10 AM
 #2

The current cycle of panic and breaking hoarded coins loose is heating up to the limit. The lower prices go, the more powerful forces against it are. If this wasn't the maximum the bust had, we're reaching it soon. Exponential trends cannot continue forever, and we just had a super-exponential breakout. A mirror image of the 32-peak?

Is there a 'timeout' on the madness?  Sure.  It can't lose several dollars in price per month for much longer... but it can continue to drop over 30% per month for quite a long time...

Just because we had a massive speculative frenzy up to $32, and a crash down to $2 (and probably going lower) doesn't mean the price will rebound quickly.  It may never rebound at all.  There is no rule, law, or trend that says the price must bounce again.  It has already bounced, when it briefly went above $20 after the $32 blow off. 

In situations like this I like to refer to this graph.  It's from a company that's still in business and had a share price of over 80c ten years ago.  It's currently 0.001c.  It has never recovered.

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=SRA&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M10

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gewure
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October 25, 2011, 05:06:37 PM
 #3

 Shocked

the words you use speak a psychologically story for themselfs
Edward50
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October 25, 2011, 05:20:01 PM
 #4

It can easily go lower. Just look at the basic fundamentals.

Bitcoin is a very tiny community.
Over 50K new coins are created every single week.
So much selling pressure would happen if the price started to rise. This would put an end to any rally.
Most people who want bitcoins, own them now. No reason to buy more
The community of bitcoiners is not increasing.
Nothing new has come out in months for bitcoin that would make it mroe desirable to own.
The price of Bitcoin has gotten beat so badly that most people will not risk buying even more bitcoins for speculation.
Bitcon was not made for speculation, it was made as a form of currency. There is no reason why it should just rise in price, especially considering the fact that over 50K new bitcoins are created every week.
Bitcoin still has many competitors. It is risky to own bitcoin when there could possibly be a better replacement at any time. Miners seem to mine what ever bitcoin earns them money. Personally i would buy another currency that put their cap in the billions, not in the millions.

The list could go on, there are so many negatives about bitcoin to speculate your money into it.



Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
cypherdoc
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October 25, 2011, 05:25:38 PM
 #5

It can easily go lower. Just look at the basic fundamentals.

Bitcoin is a very tiny community.
Over 50K new coins are created every single week.
So much selling pressure would happen if the price started to rise. This would put an end to any rally.
Most people who want bitcoins, own them now. No reason to buy more
The community of bitcoiners is not increasing.
Nothing new has come out in months for bitcoin that would make it mroe desirable to own.
The price of Bitcoin has gotten beat so badly that most people will not risk buying even more bitcoins for speculation.
Bitcon was not made for speculation, it was made as a form of currency. There is no reason why it should just rise in price, especially considering the fact that over 50K new bitcoins are created every week.
Bitcoin still has many competitors. It is risky to own bitcoin when there could possibly be a better replacement at any time. Miners seem to mine what ever bitcoin earns them money. Personally i would buy another currency that put their cap in the billions, not in the millions.

The list could go on, there are so many negatives about bitcoin to speculate your money into it.




this entire list is opinion based.
infofront
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October 25, 2011, 06:07:41 PM
 #6

It can easily go lower. Just look at the basic fundamentals.

Bitcoin is a very tiny community.
Over 50K new coins are created every single week.
So much selling pressure would happen if the price started to rise. This would put an end to any rally.
Most people who want bitcoins, own them now. No reason to buy more
The community of bitcoiners is not increasing.
Nothing new has come out in months for bitcoin that would make it mroe desirable to own.
The price of Bitcoin has gotten beat so badly that most people will not risk buying even more bitcoins for speculation.
Bitcon was not made for speculation, it was made as a form of currency. There is no reason why it should just rise in price, especially considering the fact that over 50K new bitcoins are created every week.
Bitcoin still has many competitors. It is risky to own bitcoin when there could possibly be a better replacement at any time. Miners seem to mine what ever bitcoin earns them money. Personally i would buy another currency that put their cap in the billions, not in the millions.

The list could go on, there are so many negatives about bitcoin to speculate your money into it.


this entire list is opinion based.

So it's an opinion that over 50,000 new bitcoins are created every week?
Most of the rest of what he said is opinion, but it seems to be pretty well supported. I wouldn't argue against him on any of those points. Except that I don't believe any other cryptocurrencies have a chance. Bitcoin is the only horse in the race. Even if bitcoin totally fails and there's a successor, it will be even more of a niche product, as most of the cryptocurrency supporters will have moved on.
Edward50
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October 25, 2011, 06:14:00 PM
 #7

infofront, when the price of bitcoin jumped to $30, I told someone in my family that I think bitcoins could have future potential. I was not so looking at the price, just what an online currency could offer.

he told me "I would not invest in it, what would stop someone from creating another currency and doing the same thing".

That was really the only person I tried to talk the idea into.

Anyway to add to that list:

Bitcoins could be shut down by governments. Already paypal stopped anything to do with them, and account freezes happened in Europe

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
beckspace
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October 25, 2011, 06:36:03 PM
 #8


he told me "I would not invest in it, what would stop someone from creating another currency and doing the same thing".


Like GoogleCoins or AppleCoins. I know, I hear that a lot. But to me, it is not a concern. From all the alternative coins that were created after Bitcoin, everyone of them used the Bitcoin protocol. Unless something completely different comes at the stage, Bitcoin has the traction.

Makes no sense another slightly better alternative cryptocoin replacing Bitcoin. It's all about confidence, if Bitcoin fails, all crypto-currencies will.


You guys have really come up with somethin'
anu
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October 25, 2011, 07:14:15 PM
 #9

It can easily go lower. Just look at the basic fundamentals.

Bitcoin is a very tiny community.
Over 50K new coins are created every single week.
So much selling pressure would happen if the price started to rise. This would put an end to any rally.
Most people who want bitcoins, own them now. No reason to buy more
The community of bitcoiners is not increasing.
Nothing new has come out in months for bitcoin that would make it mroe desirable to own.
The price of Bitcoin has gotten beat so badly that most people will not risk buying even more bitcoins for speculation.
Bitcon was not made for speculation, it was made as a form of currency. There is no reason why it should just rise in price, especially considering the fact that over 50K new bitcoins are created every week.
Bitcoin still has many competitors. It is risky to own bitcoin when there could possibly be a better replacement at any time. Miners seem to mine what ever bitcoin earns them money. Personally i would buy another currency that put their cap in the billions, not in the millions.

The list could go on, there are so many negatives about bitcoin to speculate your money into it.

.... sounds like a lot of really good reasons to spend time on Bitcoin in general and on this board in particular  Grin

Time == Money


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Tomatocage
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October 25, 2011, 07:30:13 PM
 #10

Anyway to add to that list:

Bitcoins could be shut down by governments. Already paypal stopped anything to do with them, and account freezes happened in Europe


You're referring to Bitcoin exchanging.  This has little to do with Bitcoin itself.

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cypherdoc
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October 25, 2011, 08:06:23 PM
 #11

It can easily go lower. Just look at the basic fundamentals.

Bitcoin is a very tiny community.
Over 50K new coins are created every single week.
So much selling pressure would happen if the price started to rise. This would put an end to any rally.
Most people who want bitcoins, own them now. No reason to buy more
The community of bitcoiners is not increasing.
Nothing new has come out in months for bitcoin that would make it mroe desirable to own.
The price of Bitcoin has gotten beat so badly that most people will not risk buying even more bitcoins for speculation.
Bitcon was not made for speculation, it was made as a form of currency. There is no reason why it should just rise in price, especially considering the fact that over 50K new bitcoins are created every week.
Bitcoin still has many competitors. It is risky to own bitcoin when there could possibly be a better replacement at any time. Miners seem to mine what ever bitcoin earns them money. Personally i would buy another currency that put their cap in the billions, not in the millions.

The list could go on, there are so many negatives about bitcoin to speculate your money into it.

.... sounds like a lot of really good reasons to spend time on Bitcoin in general and on this board in particular  Grin

Time == Money


stop being so practical.
Vandroiy
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October 28, 2011, 05:04:44 PM
 #12

Oh wow, 50k BTC a week. That's a whole 150k USD at current price.

Indeed, there are more Bitcoins generated than Minecraft keys sold, at least in average over the last two years. 1.7something is the factor.

Sorry, but do you have any idea about the magnitude global markets work on? Whether the market value is 24M or 50M USD, that's still nothing but nothing! Even with a 90% "Bitcoin will die" probability, current price is rather low.
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