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Author Topic: I am predicting a spike above $3  (Read 9871 times)
Red
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October 24, 2011, 08:25:21 PM
 #141

I am working on aeroelasticity in grad school, so I may be biased towards seeing everything as a mass/spring/damper system.

Woot!
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October 24, 2011, 08:38:23 PM
 #142

I am working on aeroelasticity in grad school, so I may be biased towards seeing everything as a mass/spring/damper system.

Woot!

I've always wondered whether these relatively shallow analogies can actually work out mathematically, because that would be VERY interesting.  The same principles are certainly at work; you can see parabolas all the time in mtgox.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 24, 2011, 08:46:37 PM
 #143

Mathematically I doubt it, these kinds of things are really what computers are good at solving. You could run a numerical simulation with a certain number of players each following a few simple rules about buying and selling. The distribution of players using what rules could be determined on historical data. Basically taking the model I put up there a few posts ago, each "player" would have a time scale that they buy and sell on. For some they look at days, some hours, some minutes. The die-hards would be on an infinite time scale, meaning that starting from 0, they are always optimists. Anyways, if you could distribute the concentration of money along these scales in discrete packets, and then throw in some certain amount of random fluxtuation you would have a model for the price movement. Whether that model would have any level of accuracy is doubtful, but it might be a fun exercise. Since there is a lot of data out there, you could try to model other psychological buying and selling queues and maybe throw in some data from Google Trends.

Can anyone out there describe what influences them buy and sell at certain times in simple logical terms? Is it mostly the price and history that you look at, or are you basing it on news stories, or forum posts?

 What about the long term movements though? What caused the $30 peak? I mean maybe it started with a news story, but it seemed like the momentum just built more momentum. Maybe there is some kind of word-of-mouth growth factor at can be modelled too.

Speaking of this stuff, does anybody know where bitcoinity and bitcoin charts and them get their databases? Are they building them from scratch since the start of bitcoin? Anybody have access to a downloadable price timeline?

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October 24, 2011, 08:55:57 PM
 #144

Speaking of this stuff, does anybody know where bitcoinity and bitcoin charts and them get their databases? Are they building them from scratch since the start of bitcoin? Anybody have access to a downloadable price timeline?

You can download the historic data from the bitcoincharts API. It has mtgox trades from the time a bitcoin was 6 cents.

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October 25, 2011, 03:07:53 AM
 #145

did i not say it right? how about the first p2p file sharing system that prevents copying?  how would you say it?
I really don't know what you are trying to convey.

I can say that I'm really interested in the perception of the Bitcoin project, both amongst those who can read the source code and those who wont understand it. For the project with about 25 thousand lines of hard-to-read code the amount of misunderstanding among the software professionals is within my expected boundaries.

For non-practitioners in software I just don't have a frame of reference. I'm just trying to comprehend what they are imagining or believing as the features of Bitcoin. And if they believe then whom and in what claims. I find this very interesting and this is what is continuing to draw me to this forum.

Clearly you are an experienced investor, since you've quickly seen through the facade of Bitcoinica and Zhoutong's posts. Also clearly, you must rely on somebody's else opinions about the actual underlying technology.


so what do you think?  did i at least somewhat answer your question?
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October 25, 2011, 03:49:49 AM
 #146

1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.

Bitcoin's innovation is not that it prevents double-spending.  That was invented by David Chaum in the 1990s and formed the basis of DigiCash. Nor is "mining" new; that's from Hashcash in the 1990s. Bitcoin combines the two concepts. The end result is a lot like Digicash, but distributed. 
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October 25, 2011, 04:03:06 AM
 #147

1.  the first sourcecode that prevents file copying while allowing public access.

Bitcoin's innovation is not that it prevents double-spending.  That was invented by David Chaum in the 1990s and formed the basis of DigiCash. Nor is "mining" new; that's from Hashcash in the 1990s. Bitcoin combines the two concepts. The end result is a lot like Digicash, but distributed. 

i actually re wrote that above in response to 2112.

part of the difficulty of Bitcoin is figuring out just what it is and how best to apply it.  i've been thinking about this all day and i think that Bitcoin is the first system that allows the public distribution of a file (blockchain) that only allows modification according to a predefined set of rules.  any attempt to modify this file outside of these rules will be rejected.
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October 25, 2011, 09:53:48 AM
 #148

so what do you think?  did i at least somewhat answer your question?
Sorry, it seems like my original reply had disappeared into the ether. You shouldn't use the phrase "prevents file copying", but something like "allows efficient detection of duplicate copy versus the original" or "detects and suppresses the attempts to multiple-spend the original value".

Other than the above it seems like what you wrote is correct or very close to correct. I will not attempt at nitpicking who was first and who was second. But your writeup reads like a pitch, not like a diligent analysis.

While I understand and somewhat share the goal of overthrowing the banking cartel, I cannot share their methods of doing that. I see absolutely no reason to dispense with the generally accepted principles of accounting like e.g. double-entry and utmost good faith. It is quite unfortunate that nobody in the core development team is familiar with accounting practice. Moreover they are quite proud of not understanding accounting, universally despise accountants and bankers (even the conscientious ones) and actually seem to cherish the opportunity to poke out their eyes and ridicule their needs.

It is my opinion that as an investor you shouldn't rely on the opinion of Internet experts like Gavin, theymos, Dan Kaminsky or 2112. You should sit with somebody whom you know well, with whom you worked with for many years, and who had deployed and integrated some financial software in a business that you understand. Only then you'll have a real knowledge of what will happen when the Bitcoin rubber will meet the dirty road of financial reality. You're saying that the Bitcoin withstood 3 years of attempted attacks. I'm asking: why during those 3 years nobody had attempted even a toy integration project and shown that the books balanced?

Since you've asked about my technical perspective, here are the three points that should become hard questions to ask the core developers:

1) Their reliance on a "gitian" build system that is pretty much a rehash of "secure Ada compilers" from the days of Uncle Ronnie fighting Star Wars using imaginary weapons. This is just pure pandering to paranoia, not a software security methodology. It is nothing more than a tar pit that actually makes serious integration work pretty much impossible.

2) Their reliance on the JSON-RPC communication protocol that is completely unsuitable to the needs of two-way communication. The band-aids of "long poll" (implemented) or "monitor" (not yet implemented) are showing lack of literacy in the available technology, eg. FIX protocol (in use by financial institutions for almost 20 years) or ZeroMQ or AMQP.

3) The overall project dynamic is completely strangulated by the vested interest of miners. Even a simple off-by-one bugs aren't getting fixed because fixing them may offend miners. Check out this post by ArtForz and the discussion on the preceding and the following page.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=46498.msg555148#msg555148

This is completely unlike any other open-source project and worse than the majority of the closed-source ones.

I summed the "mining income" of the last 3 blocks: 150.0200. Of this 0.0200 was for the useful work of securing network transactions and 150 was the distribution lottery tickets that will decay exponentially to zero. If you feel that the current banking cartel is ripping you off then wait until the sole discretion at setting the transaction fees will be in the hands of the current mining cartel.

Bitcoin may be the solution to the current worldwide problems with fiscal management. But not in the present implementation and not with the present leadership.

Edit: Oh, and by "leadership", I don't mean Gavin Andresen personally.

Please comment, critique, criticize or ridicule BIP 2112: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54382.0
Long-term mining prognosis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91101.0
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