The US Govt stole your coins - not MtGox

[cryptoanarchist]

Seeing as how not anyone on this forum has provided ANY evidence that proves otherwise, I'm sticking with this as a far more likely theory.

Gox has been watched by the US govt for years now. If you were being pressured to conform to regulations, then had an account shut down by DHS, would you try to steal ALL the coins out of your cold storage wallet for everyone to see?

No mention by the "experts" or general media of the transaction that started to disperse the cold wallet funds: https://blockchain.info/tx/478ea915aa3a2e54503c43e1c5659722b42a784412423a05394c83a44affb805. It would be a simple matter for the Feds to ask Karpeles why these transactions were made. We would already be hearing about it if they were. With so much heat, I simply cannot believe that Karpeles would try to steal hundreds of millions in broad daylight.

Many will say it was incompetence. I don't buy that either. Transaction malleability doesn't explain how a cold wallet just starts dividing up coins. No one hacked the coins. They were moved by someone with the private keys, and maybe, that person had a gun to their head.

To think that you can replace an entire monetary empire without these kinds of black ops being waged is completely ridiculous. The mainstream media story completely fits with the governments MO of "problem, reaction, solution" - there's a reason for that, and its not a coincidence.

[1715003850]

1715003850

[hostmaster]

yes agreed. there is morethan simple hack here.

[Bit_Happy]

I want to know more, are we there yet?

[tvbcof]

Some approximation of this hypothesis stands as my most powerful one as well, and has for some time.  We'll see I guess.

[Melbustus]

I don't buy the theft-over-years-that-no-one-noticed explanation either. Or transaction malleability in any way adding up to hundreds of thousands of bitcoin, even with Gox's terrible accounting.

But what about the lost-the-private-keys possibility?: http://letstalkbitcoin.com/somethings-not-right-at-gox/

From the above:

There are any number of different reasons why the coldest-cold wallet’s keys are wrong/missing/corrupted. Perhaps there is a problem with the elliptic curve in the PHP custom wallet software.
...

There is good reason to believe that whatever cold-storage solution MtGox has developed that there are wallets which may have not been tested for months or years. Very few coins would be required to be in first stage cold or hot wallets in order to run the operation.

There is good reason to believe that Mark can fuck up essential code. Depending on the nature of the theoretical wallet bug, it is possible that early tests of public/private pairs were successful, and only later did the wallet software begin producing incorrect private keys.

If MtGox was watching the public addresses of their coldest-cold wallets then they would have had no reason to be concerned, and accounting would have balanced right up until the end.

[redhawk979]

I have no evidence, but GOVERNMENT!!!

[#Darren]

Seeing as how not anyone on this forum has provided ANY evidence that proves otherwise, I'm sticking with this as a far more likely theory.

Gox has been watched by the US govt for years now. If you were being pressured to conform to regulations, then had an account shut down by DHS, would you try to steal ALL the coins out of your cold storage wallet for everyone to see?

No mention by the "experts" or general media of the transaction that started to disperse the cold wallet funds: https://blockchain.info/tx/478ea915aa3a2e54503c43e1c5659722b42a784412423a05394c83a44affb805. It would be a simple matter for the Feds to ask Karpeles why these transactions were made. We would already be hearing about it if they were. With so much heat, I simply cannot believe that Karpeles would try to steal hundreds of millions in broad daylight.

Many will say it was incompetence. I don't buy that either. Transaction malleability doesn't explain how a cold wallet just starts dividing up coins. No one hacked the coins. They were moved by someone with the private keys, and maybe, that person had a gun to their head.

To think that you can replace an entire monetary empire without these kinds of black ops being waged is completely ridiculous. The mainstream media story completely fits with the governments MO of "problem, reaction, solution" - there's a reason for that, and its not a coincidence.

I agree.  How naive to think that BIG BOTHER hasn't put his hands in this honey pot.

[fasmax]

What if the thief made a copy of his cold storage wallet.dat file early on, maybe before it was cold storage.
He thinks the coins are safe but some one moves them a year or 2 later.
When he sinks his cold storage he finds the coins are all transferred out.

[QuestionAuthority]

[Nathonas]

Honestly I'm leaning towards this theory too. Only one difference they didn't "steal" them, they're holding them in storage because of how Gox is supposedly linked to Silk Road. Or something...This also explains why Mark and Gox are not telling us a whole lot about what the hell is going on, and why they've been lying - they're under gag order so they can't say anything substantial. In any case, we should be getting more details on this topic daily so the truth will hopefully come out.

[fasmax]

Idiotic theory. Steal from Gox yet leave every other exchange alone.

Put your tin foil hats back on.

Gox has been around a long time.
If the cold storage wallet was generated in the early days before bitcoin had much value it may not have been protected very well.

What would be idiotic is thinking the thief would be able to compromise wallet.dat files from multiple exchanges.

[Nathonas]

Idiotic theory. Steal from Gox yet leave every other exchange alone.

Put your tin foil hats back on.

*IF* the government is indeed involved...It's NOT stealing. It's a criminal investigation linked to Silk Road, which is why Gox in particular is involved. They didn't "steal" the coins, they're holding them in storage under their control because Gox's bitcoins are incriminated.

[ijphlrnxewho]

Do you find it to be a coincidence
right after MtGox file for bankruptcy an article came out to regulate bitcoin?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/japan-studies-regulation-of-bitcoin-after-mt-gox-goes-dark/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

[btcmania]

Do you find it to be a coincidence
right after MtGox file for bankruptcy an article came out to regulate bitcoin?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/japan-studies-regulation-of-bitcoin-after-mt-gox-goes-dark/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

Mx. Gox was an embarrassment to the Japanese. If BTC-E closed overnight there would be an equal number of newspaper editors writing about how Bitcoin needed to be regulated. It's not a coincidence, it's the usual media flood of article on how to fix things.

It is possible the NSA did this all for sake of trying to get regulations in place but c'mon... some people also believe the government blew up the Twin Towers.

[#Darren]

Idiotic theory. Steal from Gox yet leave every other exchange alone.

Put your tin foil hats back on.

err...

1)  GOX is the big fish in the tank, so it attracts the feds and/or organised crime

2) What makes you think they aren't linked with the others ? 

3)  Are you so naive as to not understand that organisations like the CIA (for example) have their hands in major dealings the world over, and have done so for decades?

[Obi-Wan Coinobi]

Who cares if the Easter Bunny took them? They are gone.

[BitButt]

A gun to his head is what makes the most sense to me.
That would make anyone hand over the keys.

Who would be behind the gun, though?
NSA?
The israelis ?
Yakuza?
Common tokyo street criminal?

[chopstick]

I saw a post on reddit making the argument that Mark is under a gag order, and all the BTC were seized by US gov because of different investigations

Honestly I'm starting to think this is the most likely theory.

Sets a dangerous precedent that they can just seize ALL the coins though, considering most of Gox customers were not doing anything illegal.

[TechieCFO]

Please try not to speculate.
Its just a post.

the likelihood its a lie or misinformed is 50/50

the likelihood its the truth or misinformed is 50/50

Truth is perception, in the end. Unless you do
your homework.

[ISAWHIM]

You know... it is like a 1:987654982364832846873287468237648732684692423684683276483268463286 chance to find the pass-phrase to open a wallet...

However, that being said...

You can still find it in 1 shot...

However, I do believe the draining was a long-term thing. The only good thing about that, is that there is a record of every transaction that was "resent", since the coins were not drained "accidentally", and it could only have been done if someone purposely altered the txid that Gox was using to confirm the "sent transaction"...

Eg, They know everyone that they re-sent to... because they have double withdraw records. One of each transaction was just "nullified", so it didn't come off that accounts balance. (Even if they didn't have the original Txid, they have the resent txid, and can check the address, and find 2 exact transfers, one after the other.)

Now... hopefully the idiots doing this, (though doubtfully), had verified accounts. (Accounts which had multiple IP's show, were forced to verify. Large transactions were forced to verify. Thus, some verification must exist, as well as a list of IP's or one singular IP for each drained account used.)

If that is actually the case. (Which I honestly doubt.)

I find it more believable that "someone", not K, has drained the wallets. After having somehow gotten access to the wallet and with equal access to the records.

That, or his wallets got "crypted" by that BTC ransom virus... which is uncrackable, and would require the ransom to be paid, to decrypt it. (Until the gov catches that guy, and freely decrypts everyone's locked computers.)

Or...

There was this other "Issue" with wallets... kind of a little known annoyance.

After the first 100 addresses that are created in a wallet.dat file... You can create many more. However, unless you have those saved, knowing the actual created addresses... they can never be "recreated", from an older backup of the wallet. Thus, those funds are essentially "gone", unless you randomly find the randomly created prior addresses, by luck.

That would make them "not gone", but "not accessible", which is a word he used in an interview.

The only solution to resolve that, is to not let the wallet create the addresses, you use a wallet generator, which is external, and can re-create the same random addresses, if given a seed-value. Then you just add those addresses to your wallet.dat file, to use them. (If the wallet becomes corrupt, you can still recreate it, using the external address generator. But not the wallet itself.)

Only sad part of the above... it does not work for "returned change", which will go to a new random address, beyond the 100, and out of the scope of the address generator.

honestly, the wallet needs an overhaul.

There is always simple "espionage"... hidden cameras, invisible tracer-paint on keypads, key loggers, database prying, packet-sniffing... It is not like he hand-built the systems himself. Nor did he have 24/7 security control, with security-watchers watching them, like a casino has.

It is time Gox was purchased by a real trade-market manager, with the security and protections it needs. Including fraud detection, and live audits.

Also.. how the hell did the audits NOT detect this? They had to audit off something real. (That alone says it probably wasn't actually a draining of a wallet.)

Whatever... a real criminal investigation is now underway. The reality will be exposed, then a real auditor will re-evaluate the actual losses... since his estimations were not legally valued like they should have been. 10,000 BTC deposited 4 years ago, was not worth today's prices, if it was never sold. It was worth the value at the time of deposit or of the last trade it had. He estimated all values at today's prices, including his own coins.

Not to mention all the dead accounts that were fake, and not a loss, because the depositors are dead, or in prison, or can never legally verify. (Thieves will not be going through the verification process to get laundered money that they stole, and now have to claim, for fear of being caught. Those have to come off the top of the "losses" also, and have to go to "unclaimed funds", which will just become, "unclaimed losses".)