Trump's campaign manager Manafort and his lawyer Cohen guilty of 8 felonies each

[Moloch]

Cohen has already flipped on Trump and threw him under the bus over a week ago when he released a secretly recorded tape of Trump asking him to pay off Stormy Daniels (believe it or not, that's illegal to do during a campaign for president)

Cohen admits that he committed crimes under the direction of Trump

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

[1715110446]

1715110446

[suchmoon]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

[Moloch]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

I suppose if you can't find a single republican who cares about the law, Trump doesn't have anything to worry about (it's entirely possible)

But then again... there is an election in 3 months, and I highly doubt republicans will maintain control of congress after November... so he's got 3 months tops

[suchmoon]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

I suppose if you can't find a single republican who cares about the law, Trump doesn't have anything to worry about (it's entirely possible)

But then again... there is an election in 3 months, and I highly doubt republicans will maintain control of congress after November... so he's got 3 months tops

Removing the POTUS would require (1) impeachment by a simple majority in the House, which could be possible, and (2) conviction by two thirds in the Senate, which is extremely unlikely.

There is one hypothetical scenario if Democrats win the House and/or (very unlikely) the Senate. Republicans might rush to impeach Trump during the lame duck session as this would allow them to:

1) claim the high ground, law and order, etc;
2) craft the impeachment with all sorts of poison pills;
3) bonus: avoid the possibility of Democrats impeaching Trump AND Pence and putting Pelosi into the White House LOL.

[Moloch]

It is hard to say... I have heard there is legitimate evidence from Cohen that Trump committed at least one felony related to his campaign during the election.  I believe Cohen has already turned state's evidence...

This is not like Clinton being impeached over getting a blowjob... this is actual criminal behavior... things people go to prison for doing

If the republicans vote against impeaching Trump for actual felonies... I don't really know what to say... I just can't see that even happening... they would all be guilty of obstruction of justice... there would be riots in the streets... I'm not certain how people would react if our government openly obstructs justice to that extent, it could trigger a revolution

Robert Mueller’s witch hunt celebrates catching 47th witch
http://newsthump.com/2018/08/22/robert-muellers-witch-hunt-celebrates-catching-47th-witch/

3) bonus: avoid the possibility of Democrats impeaching Trump AND Pence and putting Pelosi into the White House LOL.

If they impeach both Trump and Pence before the next election, Paul Ryan would be president, right?

I suppose if they waited too long and democrats took control of the house Pelosi would be the speaker?... which is just as terrifying as Trump or Pence to me... I hate to say out of the choices I'd go with Paul Ryan

How would it work if, for example, both Trump and Pence were impeached next week?  Would Paul Ryan be president for a little over 2 years, or would the new speaker of the house take over after the election?

[suchmoon]

If the republicans vote against impeaching Trump for actual felonies... I don't really know what to say... I just can't see that even happening... they would all be guilty of obstruction of justice... there would be riots in the streets... I'm not certain how people would react if our government openly obstructs justice to that extent, it could trigger a revolution

People would react by enjoying the reality TV show.

I'm fully prepared to eat my words if e.g. election turnout is exceptionally high in November and some sort of massive shift in electorate mindset is indicated in some way. But as it stands now ignorance and apathy wins elections, particularly midterms.

If they impeach both Trump and Pence before the next election, Paul Ryan would be president, right?

I suppose if they waited too long and democrats took control of the house Pelosi would be the speaker?... which is just as terrifying as Trump or Pence to me... I hate to say out of the choices I'd go with Paul Ryan

Correct.

How would it work if, for example, both Trump and Pence were impeached next week?  Would Paul Ryan be president for a little over 2 years, or would the new speaker of the house take over after the election?

Ryan would serve out the rest of Trump's term. But that's even less likely than Pelosi. Republicans would be happy to keep Pence.

[Spendulus]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

I suppose if you can't find a single republican who cares about the law, Trump doesn't have anything to worry about (it's entirely possible)

But then again... there is an election in 3 months, and I highly doubt republicans will maintain control of congress after November... so he's got 3 months tops

You do realize there have been many, many Republicans that didn't like Trump.

Along with Democrats.

Are you a creature of the swamp who simply wants to protect it?

[Psec]

It's unlikely that Trump will be impeach by Republican house and Senate but this will work in favor of Democrat in midterm election

[Spendulus]

It's unlikely that Trump will be impeach by Republican house and Senate but this will work in favor of Democrat in midterm election

More attempts to present fake news as real.

You guys realize that this is an attempt to claim that Trump paying those women to shut up is a campaign violation, which means contributing to your own campaign is wrong?

That's a ridiculous assertion. There's no difference between paying them yourself and through an agent.

Blah-blah-blah.

Where's the Russia Collusion?

[suchmoon]

You guys realize that this is an attempt to claim that Trump paying those women to shut up is a campaign violation, which means contributing to your own campaign is wrong?

Even if you're right, candidate's own contributions would need to be reported. It that's all there is to it (unreported contribution) then he's just gonna get a slap on the wrist like many campaigns do for some bureaucratic reason or another. However if there is an illegal corporate contribution (AMI) or an over-limit personal contribution (Cohen) then Trump is potentially in some trouble if as alleged he coordinated with those entities.

[Moloch]

For a witch hunt, they sure seem to be finding a lot of witches.

WSJ: National Enquirer publisher David Pecker granted immunity
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/23/politics/david-pecker-immunity-cohen/index.html

David Pecker, the head of the company that publishes the National Enquirer, was granted immunity in the federal investigation into President Donald Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen in exchange for providing information on hush money deals, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Pecker, the CEO of American Media Inc., told federal prosecutors that Trump had knowledge of Cohen's payments to women who had alleged sexual encounters with him, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Pecker also provided investigators with details about payments Cohen made to the women, the sources said.
Representatives for American Media Inc. did not respond to a request for comment.

Cohen pleaded guilty Tuesday to eight criminal counts, including tax fraud, false statements to a bank and campaign finance violations.

In court Tuesday, Cohen said, "I and the CEO of a media company, at the request of the candidate, worked together" to squelch stories, effectively implicating Trump himself.
(...)

[Honour423]

And one juror away from it being 18 felonies.

[squatz1]

Removing the POTUS would require (1) impeachment by a simple majority in the House, which could be possible, and (2) conviction by two thirds in the Senate, which is extremely unlikely.

There is one hypothetical scenario if Democrats win the House and/or (very unlikely) the Senate. Republicans might rush to impeach Trump during the lame duck session as this would allow them to:

1) claim the high ground, law and order, etc;
2) craft the impeachment with all sorts of poison pills;
3) bonus: avoid the possibility of Democrats impeaching Trump AND Pence and putting Pelosi into the White House LOL.

People also don't understand the fact that if you remove Trump, who is someone who is HATED by the Democrats (and some moderates) by his strong stance on immigration, abortion, and so on and so forth. But when you're replacing someone like Trump I would assume people would want a push to moderate, but with removing him they're going to be getting Mike Pence

Mike Pence isn't anything close to moderate, and I think it would be fact for most people that Pence is much farther right then Trump on many things.

But I guess, back onto the topic.

I do think that people must remember that the crimes that Manafort committed had nothing to do with President Trump, and he is showing that he isn't going to flip (maybe because he has nothing to flip on, or maybe there's something that we're all not seeing at the moment) Though with Cohen, his crimes did relate to Donald Trump-- though I don't think the crimes that he committed were anything that should concern the President at all

I mean, Campaign Finance laws are laws without a doubt -- but the only thing I see coming out of this is a fine, which is what has happened to other politicians campaigns in the past. Though Muellers end game is to just try and flip people, though I would think that after this long something would have been dug up.

Lets see what will happen... I guess.

[theymos]

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

Although Cohen and Manafort both seem like highly unethical characters AFAICT (Cohen was secretly recording his clients in order to collect dirt on them, and Manafort apparently worked for an evil Ukrainian regime), the specifics of these cases make them look more like a move against Trump. For example, it's extremely unusual for anyone to be pursued for bank fraud in which the bank didn't actually lose any money, or criminally for this sort of campaign finance stuff. And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president. It'd be like saying that spending personal money to renovate your house was a campaign contribution because it'd look bad campaign-wise if you had a run-down-looking house; it's very tangential.

I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically. Impeachment is unlikely, but if it does happen, we might end up looking back on that pardon as being the thing which ultimately resulted in Trump getting impeached. But a strong desire to pardon is understandable from Trump's perspective.

From a libertarian perspective, this whole mess is probably pretty good because it keeps the government chaotic, divided, and busy, and maybe it'll even expose the stupidity of some of these "paperwork crimes".

[suchmoon]

I mean, Campaign Finance laws are laws without a doubt -- but the only thing I see coming out of this is a fine, which is what has happened to other politicians campaigns in the past. Though Muellers end game is to just try and flip people, though I would think that after this long something would have been dug up.

Lets see what will happen... I guess.

There's a couple of other people involved in all this by way of being granted immunity so presumably having some dirt on DJT: David Pecker as mentioned a few posts above, who helped bury the affairs, and Allen Weisselberg, Trump's CFO. Now that last one sounds ominous no matter how you look at it.

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

Some sort of jurisdictional thing? Cohen was charged by SDNY on relatively minor crimes and a plea deal might be done with Mueller on some more serious charges.

I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically. Impeachment is unlikely, but if it does happen, we might end up looking back on that pardon as being the thing which ultimately resulted in Trump getting impeached. But a strong desire to pardon is understandable from Trump's perspective.

I don't really understand that part, why does he want to pardon Manafort? Just because he didn't flip? It's not over yet, Manafort still has one federal suit pending and there's state-level tax fraud so he's likely going to jail even with the pardon.

[Steamtyme]

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

The only move I see here is holding out for a better plea if needed down the road. Cohen can then leverage time served or some other trade off for information such as using the name of the "client running for federal office"; because until then it is just speculation as to who that could be. I feel his show of saying that he would not accept a pardon from the President, was a signal that he wants to play ball.

the specifics of these cases make them look more like a move against Trump. For example, it's extremely unusual for anyone to be pursued for bank fraud in which the bank didn't actually lose any money, or criminally for this sort of campaign finance stuff. And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president. It'd be like saying that spending personal money to renovate your house was a campaign contribution because it'd look bad campaign-wise if you had a run-down-looking house; it's very tangential.

That's exactly what both of these cases represent. Neither of these individuals would be facing any trial or investigation if they didn't fall within the scope of Mueller's probe. It's an interesting tactic and smart to use the full scope of investigation they can to cast a wide net and catch everything possible. The more people you can put pressure on the more likely you are to find the information you need to move forward. None of these charges are the endgame, they are small setup movements hoping to find what they are really looking for.
quote]
I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically.
[/quote]

I've stopped guessing what he may do. It wouldn't be the first horrible political move he's made; but it has shown how much politicians will accept/tolerate/follow/bend to for the chance to hold onto their power for another term.

[Edward_Ray]

Crazy crazy stuff! It is really sad and exciting at the same time. Trump's legitimacy and stance keeps crumbling from all ends. But it will be very stupid and just waste of taxpayer's money if the man ends up not being impeached. I'm still confident that the whole collusion talk is bullshit though. It was only used as an opportunity to start digging up dirt on the already controversial man. Then the Trump Tower janitor witness came up yesterday. Seems some people are really doing their jobs passionately. Let the Americans keep distracting their President, the rest of the world is enjoying it.

[theymos]

I don't really understand that part, why does he want to pardon Manafort? Just because he didn't flip? It's not over yet, Manafort still has one federal suit pending and there's state-level tax fraud so he's likely going to jail even with the pardon.

Trump is friends with Manafort, he believes (maybe rightly) that Manafort would not be in any trouble if not for his association with Trump, and Manafort is remaining loyal. Trump has proven throughout his presidency that the #1 thing he cares about is personal loyalty, so he will feel obligated to protect Manafort here. Trump isn't the kind of person who can easily throw someone under the bus, and he will perceive not pardoning Manafort as doing so.

[Moloch]

Trump isn't the kind of person who can easily throw someone under the bus, and he will perceive not pardoning Manafort as doing so.

LMAO... Trump is exactly the kind of person to throw everyone under the bus.  The very first thing Trump does when someone accuses him of anything, is point the finger at someone else.  What did Trump say when accused of soliciting campaign contributions from foreign countries? "Hillary did it too!"  Trump is extremely narcissistic, he cares only about himself.  He will break any law he sees someone else break.  He wants to be the most corrupt of all politicians, he tries very hard at it

Poor Ted Cruz... thrown under the Trump bus

[squatz1]

Although Cohen and Manafort both seem like highly unethical characters AFAICT (Cohen was secretly recording his clients in order to collect dirt on them, and Manafort apparently worked for an evil Ukrainian regime), the specifics of these cases make them look more like a move against Trump. For example, it's extremely unusual for anyone to be pursued for bank fraud in which the bank didn't actually lose any money, or criminally for this sort of campaign finance stuff. And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president. It'd be like saying that spending personal money to renovate your house was a campaign contribution because it'd look bad campaign-wise if you had a run-down-looking house; it's very tangential.

This is more of what I mean when I'm talking about these cases, as I do think that these cases are only being looked into due to the relation with Trump. If these were people who had no relation to Trump in the slightest, the penalties wouldn't be as stiff nor would anyone really care too much.

Campaign finance violation is without a doubt a reach, and it's something that Trump knows. He knows that other politicans have got in trouble for campaign finance-related activities -- and all it has lead to was some fines (nothing actually criminally)

I think all of this just helps Trump as he's going to cast the AG (DOJ) as working against him and the special counsel as meddling in things he has no business in.

[Flying Hellfish]

I don't really understand that part, why does he want to pardon Manafort? Just because he didn't flip? It's not over yet, Manafort still has one federal suit pending and there's state-level tax fraud so he's likely going to jail even with the pardon.

Trump is friends with Manafort, he believes (maybe rightly) that Manafort would not be in any trouble if not for his association with Trump, and

It might also be fair to say that Manafort might not be in trouble if he wasn't committing felonies?  I guess criminals really are stupid in the end, who in the fuck takes a high profile job like that when engaged in felonies.

I guess one could suppose that the reason Manafort was associated with trump in the first place is because he was good at "stuff, wink wink" or would at least do them LOL.

Manafort is remaining loyal. Trump has proven throughout his presidency that the #1 thing he cares about is personal loyalty, so he will feel obligated to protect Manafort here.

I'd say Manafort is an idiot lol but that's just me.  I'm not sure Trump cares about anyone that can't do something for him tbh.  He certainly doesn't understand what loyalty to a wife is (although admittedly a lot of Presidents couldn't keep their dick in the pants).  He's a pretty classic narcissist and generally those personality types don't understand much outside of their world.

I'm curious if Manafort is taking it for Trump with something else still in his back pocket hoping he will get a pardon to keep quite on the rest?

Trump isn't the kind of person who can easily throw someone under the bus,

I mean unless your Mexican or a Women, am I right?  

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

[Spendulus]

.....

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

The 2/3 vote required in the Senate is impossible to achieve. These days everything is decided in the Senate by just a couple votes one way or the other.

This is all fake news. The more fake news express high negativity for Trump, the more certain factions are happy. As the Russia Collusion fabrications fade away, replace with New Bad Trumpies.

[squatz1]

It might also be fair to say that Manafort might not be in trouble if he wasn't committing felonies?  I guess criminals really are stupid in the end, who in the fuck takes a high profile job like that when engaged in felonies.

I guess one could suppose that the reason Manafort was associated with trump in the first place is because he was good at "stuff, wink wink" or would at least do them LOL.

I mean, nothing that Manafort did under Trump is being called under question as of right now. The only thing that is under question in all of the crimes that he's been found guilty of (and the crimes that there was a hung jury on) are crimes that have nothing to do with President Trump -- the have to do with Manaforts lobbying from 5 or so years ago. Which was under his own lobbying company.

I'm curious if Manafort is taking it for Trump with something else still in his back pocket hoping he will get a pardon to keep quite on the rest?

Or maybe he has nothing on Trump and just has to swallow his pride and take whatever the court gives him. Though this will probably just end up in appeals anyway, and who knows what the Manafort legal time will be able to do.

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

AH I SAID THIS BEFORE, NICE CATCH LIBERALS!!!!!

This is all fake news. The more fake news express high negativity for Trump, the more certain factions are happy. As the Russia Collusion fabrications fade away, replace with New Bad Trumpies.

High negativity makes the media money, they're going to keep doing this in order to keep their bottom line nice, fat, and green. They'll keep doing this to get more and more clicks to continue to pad their bottom lines.

Maybe the people will notice that the media can't be trusted, but maybe they won't.

[suchmoon]

I'd say Manafort is an idiot lol but that's just me.  I'm not sure Trump cares about anyone that can't do something for him tbh.  He certainly doesn't understand what loyalty to a wife is (although admittedly a lot of Presidents couldn't keep their dick in the pants).  He's a pretty classic narcissist and generally those personality types don't understand much outside of their world.

He's sensitive to flattery though, so that may play a role. Also presidential pardons are quite authoritarian - no Senate approval, no "deep state" departments to deal with, and no judges to overturn them  - so it's one of very few things that Trump can do pretty much on his own. Seems like everyone telling him "don't do it" will just encourage him even more.

[theymos]

LMAO... Trump is exactly the kind of person to throw everyone under the bus.

I meant that he won't throw people in his in-group under the bus.

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

Pence is a Cheney-style neocon. Very pro-war and authoritarian. So he'd probably get along well with the neoliberal Democratic establishment, even if they'd pretend to hate him due to his social views (which he's not in a position to do much about as president anyway).

[Moloch]

.....

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

The 2/3 vote required in the Senate is impossible to achieve. These days everything is decided in the Senate by just a couple votes one way or the other.

This is all fake news. The more fake news express high negativity for Trump, the more certain factions are happy. As the Russia Collusion fabrications fade away, replace with New Bad Trumpies.

I can't take anyone seriously who propagates an improper usage of the term 'fake news'.  Reporting things you disagree with is not "fake"... fake news is people like Alex Jones, who spreads nonsense about pizza shops until some guy shows up shooting an assault rifle around

[Azazel333]

.....

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

The 2/3 vote required in the Senate is impossible to achieve. These days everything is decided in the Senate by just a couple votes one way or the other.

This is all fake news. The more fake news express high negativity for Trump, the more certain factions are happy. As the Russia Collusion fabrications fade away, replace with New Bad Trumpies.

I can't take anyone seriously who propagates an improper usage of the term 'fake news'.  Reporting things you disagree with is not "fake"... fake news is people like Alex Jones, who spreads nonsense about pizza shops until some guy shows up shooting an assault rifle around

Alex Jones is about the realest news we get although he's been wrong about a few things. At least he is occasionally correct and makes predictions that no one else made years ago.

CNN has gotten less objective than RT (Russia Today)

[Spendulus]

.....

What is interesting to me is that if the left gets their wish and Trump is somehow impeached, Pence is probably fucking 10 times worse.

The 2/3 vote required in the Senate is impossible to achieve. These days everything is decided in the Senate by just a couple votes one way or the other.

This is all fake news. The more fake news express high negativity for Trump, the more certain factions are happy. As the Russia Collusion fabrications fade away, replace with New Bad Trumpies.

I can't take anyone seriously who propagates an improper usage of the term 'fake news'.  Reporting things you disagree with is not "fake"... fake news is people like Alex Jones, who spreads nonsense about pizza shops until some guy shows up shooting an assault rifle around

Alex Jones is about the realest news we get although he's been wrong about a few things. At least he is occasionally correct and makes predictions that no one else made years ago.

CNN has gotten less objective than RT (Russia Today)

Not just CNN....

[Steamtyme]

Alex Jones is about the realest news we get although he's been wrong about a few things. At least he is occasionally correct and makes predictions that no one else made years ago.

CNN has gotten less objective than RT (Russia Today)

I'd say wrong on more than a few things. Since when is a good standard of news that he occasionally is correct, and that these are predictions.

There is not one source of News that can be found to be impartial, and reporting to the standards the public deserves. Unfortunately I believe the industry forgot how to report objectively and to fact check sources. I would much rather have a story 2 days later, but with fact checked information delivered without bias or spin.

I meant that he won't throw people in his in-group under the bus.

With his group, you are only in it until you are not. Membership gets revoked at the slightest perceived slight or tarnishing of the Trump brand of politics. (Unless you are family, I'm guessing you get docked inheritance or something)

He's sensitive to flattery though, so that may play a role. Also presidential pardons are quite authoritarian - no Senate approval, no "deep state" departments to deal with, and no judges to overturn them  - so it's one of very few things that Trump can do pretty much on his own. Seems like everyone telling him "don't do it" will just encourage him even more.

Flattery only gets these people their high paying role. If you want to keep the job or receive a very public Pardon, it has to poll well with his base.

[Quickseller]

For a witch hunt, they sure seem to be finding a lot of witches.

The investigation is finding a lot of criminal activity, although much of the found criminal activity was previously known to investigators and it was decided to not pursue charges, meaning the charges were political in nature. 

WSJ: National Enquirer publisher David Pecker granted immunity
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/23/politics/david-pecker-immunity-cohen/index.html

This should be chilling. News organizations have 1st amendment exemptions to campaign finance laws, they are able to endorse candidates and otherwise provide favorable/unfavorable coverage to candidates (which is very valuable) without having to report the value of such on campaign reporting forms. It is also very common for a news outlet to investigate a story (regarding a candidate), only to not report said story because it is not credible (remember that anything a news outlet publishes will affect it's reputation). I would also point out that major news outlets frequently refrain from reporting favorable information about the current state of the economy and the county, even though they spend money obtaining this information -- none of this is reported on any campaign finance disclosure form.

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

It is not entirely uncommon for defendants to plea guilty to a crime in exchange for some of the charges to be dropped. My understanding is that prosecutors were ready to charge Cohen with 20 counts of various crimes, and that the plea deal will prevent additional related charges from being brought.

And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president.

The facts surrounding the bank fraud charges are likely illegal (the bringing of said charges are still political though), however the underlying facts around the campaign finance violations are almost certainly not illegal however. The test of if something is a campaign expense is to ask if someone would have incurred an expense if they were not running a campaign, and if they would have, it is not a campaign expense. For example, if you have a debate on Tuesday, you might get a massage on Monday to be relaxed for the debate, or get a haircut so you look sharp during the debate, however neither of these are campaign expenditures. Further, all campaign expenditures are paid out of the "campaign" so if one were to argue the campaign should have paid off Trump's former girlfriend for her silence, then the argument is that political donors (via the campaign) should be paying for this, which of course is hogwash. Even if one reason for the payment was to help his election chances, Trump would have made this payment if he was not running for office to protect his reputation and marriage, which makes this a personal expense.

In regards to Cohens tax fraud charges, it is more common for someone to get audited, and as a result of the audit, for the IRS to find shady business, charge the back taxes, and penalties, and to move on. My understanding is that the filing of an amended return (that results from an audit, although also otherwise) with correct information will prevent prosecutors from filing tax fraud charges.

In regards to all of the charges, I suspect that if Cohen had agreed to corporate to provide evidence against Trump, he likely would not have received any jail time, any fine, and the prosecutors likely would not have forced Cohen to file amended tax returns with corrected information (pay back taxes). See the deal that Gates got.

I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically. Impeachment is unlikely, but if it does happen, we might end up looking back on that pardon as being the thing which ultimately resulted in Trump getting impeached. But a strong desire to pardon is understandable from Trump's perspective.

I think manafort should be pardoned. He should wait until the Mueller investigation is complete, or at least until Manafort is sentenced and it is clear he is unwilling (or much more likely, unable) to corporate.

I don't really understand that part, why does he want to pardon Manafort? Just because he didn't flip? It's not over yet, Manafort still has one federal suit pending and there's state-level tax fraud so he's likely going to jail even with the pardon.

Trump is friends with Manafort, he believes (maybe rightly) that Manafort would not be in any trouble if not for his association with Trump, and Manafort is remaining loyal. Trump has proven throughout his presidency that the #1 thing he cares about is personal loyalty, so he will feel obligated to protect Manafort here. Trump isn't the kind of person who can easily throw someone under the bus, and he will perceive not pardoning Manafort as doing so.

Manafort owns a condo in Trump tower in NY, and has likely known Trump for some time before his candidacy. Manafort was previously investigated and the FBI declined to pursue charges.

I don't think there is anything Manafort can say that would be harmful to Trump, however he can obviously make things up. If Manafort does makes things up, he is risking Trump allowing him to spend the rest of his life in jail, essentially for no reason.

[theymos]

And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president.

A former chair of the Federal Election Commission agrees that the campaign finance stuff has no merit: https://www.c-span.org/video/?450698-4/washington-journal-bradley-smith-discusses-michael-cohens-plea-deal-campaign-finance-laws

[GreenBits]

And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president.

A former chair of the Federal Election Commission agrees that the campaign finance stuff has no merit: https://www.c-span.org/video/?450698-4/washington-journal-bradley-smith-discusses-michael-cohens-plea-deal-campaign-finance-laws

 

The office of the POTUS used to be a damned near sacred thing. An office of respect, prestige. Great men who put themselves to the side to serve country. Above party, race, above all.

When we do MAGA, I'd like to return to the time when that was the case 

[Spendulus]

And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president.

A former chair of the Federal Election Commission agrees that the campaign finance stuff has no merit: https://www.c-span.org/video/?450698-4/washington-journal-bradley-smith-discusses-michael-cohens-plea-deal-campaign-finance-laws

The finance thing is laughable, Mueller is essentially arguing that a man cannot contribute to his own campaign IF it is done through an intermediary such as an attorney.

As for the "bank charges," those date from a period in time when foreign bank accounts were routinely not reported. Remember UBI and their US customers' overseas accounts? Thousands of US citizens received amnesty by admitting and reporting. Sure, during those days not reporting was illegal.

But the existence of that huge amnesty program was only the tip of the iceberg. Those were the days when the US was starting to tighten the screws on surveillance of US citizens and their affairs, and that was one part.

[Flying Hellfish]

I'm curious if Manafort is taking it for Trump with something else still in his back pocket hoping he will get a pardon to keep quite on the rest?

Guess it's time to sing like a little bitch eh?  LOL a presidents chairman manager pleads guilty to more felonies, agrees to forfeit everything and co-operate fully with special counsel hahaha this is going to get fun!  He also gets to sit in custody until his co-operation is done.  Oh I like the part where Manafort has to waive his right to have his counsel present during interviews and debriefings!!!

Manafort must think he has enough dirt on Trump to make himself worthwhile to Mueller.  Trump should pardon Manafort lol.

[Quickseller]

I'm curious if Manafort is taking it for Trump with something else still in his back pocket hoping he will get a pardon to keep quite on the rest?

Guess it's time to sing like a little bitch eh?  LOL a presidents chairman manager pleads guilty to more felonies, agrees to forfeit everything and co-operate fully with special counsel hahaha this is going to get fun!  He also gets to sit in custody until his co-operation is done.  Oh I like the part where Manafort has to waive his right to have his counsel present during interviews and debriefings!!!

Manafort must think he has enough dirt on Trump to make himself worthwhile to Mueller.  Trump should pardon Manafort lol.

Rick Gates, who was Manafort right hand man, and who stayed on the campaign after Manafort resigned from the campaign has been cooperating for months, so presumably Mueller would have information regarding the Trump campaign that manafort could offer, if any exists.

Further, based upon the fact that the FBI was spying on the trump campaign, I would find it unlikely that Manafort would have information that the FBI, and the Mueller team doesn’t already know about.

I agree that Manafort should get pardoned, but not for trump to protect himself.

[suchmoon]

Rick Gates, who was Manafort right hand man, and who stayed on the campaign after Manafort resigned from the campaign has been cooperating for months, so presumably Mueller would have information regarding the Trump campaign that manafort could offer, if any exists.

Further, based upon the fact that the FBI was spying on the trump campaign, I would find it unlikely that Manafort would have information that the FBI, and the Mueller team doesn’t already know about.

So why would they cut him a deal? And why would he take it if he knows that he can't deliver any new info AND he's throwing away the chance of a pardon.

I agree that Manafort should get pardoned, but not for trump to protect himself.

Not after this. Trump isn't gonna pardon a snitch.

[Quickseller]

Rick Gates, who was Manafort right hand man, and who stayed on the campaign after Manafort resigned from the campaign has been cooperating for months, so presumably Mueller would have information regarding the Trump campaign that manafort could offer, if any exists.

Further, based upon the fact that the FBI was spying on the trump campaign, I would find it unlikely that Manafort would have information that the FBI, and the Mueller team doesn’t already know about.

So why would they cut him a deal? And why would he take it if he knows that he can't deliver any new info AND he's throwing away the chance of a pardon.

I agree that Manafort should get pardoned, but not for trump to protect himself.

Not after this. Trump isn't gonna pardon a snitch.

You don’t know what Manafort is going to tell Mueller. I have read that he may give dirt on Podesta or others in his circle.

He is also pleading guilty to specific crimes that would make it difficult to mount a defense if his convictions are overturned on appeal.

My understanding is that Manafort was previously investigated many years ago and authorities declined to pursue charges. I also understand that Mueller didn’t uncover substantial additional information about Manafort. These facts make me come to the conclusion that Manafort would not have been prosecuted except for his connection to Trump.

[theymos]

Manafort's guilty plea surprised me a lot. I hope at some point we get all of the details behind this.

Not after this. Trump isn't gonna pardon a snitch.

Agreed.

[Flying Hellfish]

So why would they cut him a deal? And why would he take it if he knows that he can't deliver any new info AND he's throwing away the chance of a pardon.

The only reason to cut him a deal is because Mueller needs something else from him.  This is classic legal investigation tactics he is working his way up the ladder, Kushner, Jr and Ivanka are next don't be surprised.

Rick Gates, who was Manafort right hand man, and who stayed on the campaign after Manafort resigned from the campaign has been cooperating for months, so presumably Mueller would have information regarding the Trump campaign that manafort could offer, if any exists.

Well that is stupid logic and just illustrates your lack of understanding of how legal investigations work, your saying Gates knew EVERYTHING Manafort knows...  Gee I wonder if Manafort did stuff Gates maybe didn't know about hmm or took care of things Gates didn't know about, nah I guess that's not even remotely possible.

Gee I also wonder if Mueller needs corroborating witness's, even if Gates knows EVERYTHING Manafort and Trump did, Mueller still needs corroborating evidence AS MUCH OF IT AS HE CAN GET HIS HANDS ON, you know to support his overall case....

Look Manafort gave up EVERYTHING and Mueller gave up very little.  The reason Manafort turned is because he trusts Mueller more now than Trump LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Manafort has dirt on the next level in the mob or the top level or Mueller would have let him rot on trial or forced a straight up guilty plea with no conditions.  

Do you think Manafort's lawyers didn't explore the possibility of a guilty plea with no co-operation deal, of course not but that option didn't exist because Mueller needed something from Manafort.

If all you smart guys round here actually thought about this as an investigation instead of looking at the politics you would see that Trump is FUCKED.  Manafort guilty and co-op deal is a fucking bomb like it or not Trumpies!

These facts make me come to the conclusion that Manafort would not have been prosecuted except for his connection to Trump.

1 other tiny little thing you left out, he committed the crimes you know he probably wouldn't have been prosecuted if he hadn't committed actual felonies either...  

Just because he may or may not have been investigated before doesn't mean new information hasn't come to light to suggest further investigation and actual prosecution this time...

For a smart guy your logical fallacies are pretty significant, no wonder you love trump!

Manafort's guilty plea surprised me a lot. I hope at some point we get all of the details behind this.

Wait for Kushner's plea that's probably gonna surprise you when it happens too!

[suchmoon]

You don’t know what Manafort is going to tell Mueller. I have read that he may give dirt on Podesta or others in his circle.

He is also pleading guilty to specific crimes that would make it difficult to mount a defense if his convictions are overturned on appeal.

My understanding is that Manafort was previously investigated many years ago and authorities declined to pursue charges. I also understand that Mueller didn’t uncover substantial additional information about Manafort. These facts make me come to the conclusion that Manafort would not have been prosecuted except for his connection to Trump.

You don't know that either. He could have dirt on his neighbor who's parking too close to a fire hydrant. But seeing how Mueller referred Podesta and other lobbyists to prosecutors in New York and already had Podesta's former employees spilling the dirt I'd say it's more likely that he's going after Trump's circle with this plea deal.