Trump's campaign manager Manafort and his lawyer Cohen guilty of 8 felonies each

[Moloch]

Cohen has already flipped on Trump and threw him under the bus over a week ago when he released a secretly recorded tape of Trump asking him to pay off Stormy Daniels (believe it or not, that's illegal to do during a campaign for president)

Cohen admits that he committed crimes under the direction of Trump

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

[suchmoon]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

[Moloch]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

I suppose if you can't find a single republican who cares about the law, Trump doesn't have anything to worry about (it's entirely possible)

But then again... there is an election in 3 months, and I highly doubt republicans will maintain control of congress after November... so he's got 3 months tops

[suchmoon]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

I suppose if you can't find a single republican who cares about the law, Trump doesn't have anything to worry about (it's entirely possible)

But then again... there is an election in 3 months, and I highly doubt republicans will maintain control of congress after November... so he's got 3 months tops

Removing the POTUS would require (1) impeachment by a simple majority in the House, which could be possible, and (2) conviction by two thirds in the Senate, which is extremely unlikely.

There is one hypothetical scenario if Democrats win the House and/or (very unlikely) the Senate. Republicans might rush to impeach Trump during the lame duck session as this would allow them to:

1) claim the high ground, law and order, etc;
2) craft the impeachment with all sorts of poison pills;
3) bonus: avoid the possibility of Democrats impeaching Trump AND Pence and putting Pelosi into the White House LOL.

[Moloch]

It is hard to say... I have heard there is legitimate evidence from Cohen that Trump committed at least one felony related to his campaign during the election.  I believe Cohen has already turned state's evidence...

This is not like Clinton being impeached over getting a blowjob... this is actual criminal behavior... things people go to prison for doing

If the republicans vote against impeaching Trump for actual felonies... I don't really know what to say... I just can't see that even happening... they would all be guilty of obstruction of justice... there would be riots in the streets... I'm not certain how people would react if our government openly obstructs justice to that extent, it could trigger a revolution

Robert Mueller’s witch hunt celebrates catching 47th witch
http://newsthump.com/2018/08/22/robert-muellers-witch-hunt-celebrates-catching-47th-witch/

3) bonus: avoid the possibility of Democrats impeaching Trump AND Pence and putting Pelosi into the White House LOL.

If they impeach both Trump and Pence before the next election, Paul Ryan would be president, right?

I suppose if they waited too long and democrats took control of the house Pelosi would be the speaker?... which is just as terrifying as Trump or Pence to me... I hate to say out of the choices I'd go with Paul Ryan

How would it work if, for example, both Trump and Pence were impeached next week?  Would Paul Ryan be president for a little over 2 years, or would the new speaker of the house take over after the election?

[suchmoon]

If the republicans vote against impeaching Trump for actual felonies... I don't really know what to say... I just can't see that even happening... they would all be guilty of obstruction of justice... there would be riots in the streets... I'm not certain how people would react if our government openly obstructs justice to that extent, it could trigger a revolution

People would react by enjoying the reality TV show.

I'm fully prepared to eat my words if e.g. election turnout is exceptionally high in November and some sort of massive shift in electorate mindset is indicated in some way. But as it stands now ignorance and apathy wins elections, particularly midterms.

If they impeach both Trump and Pence before the next election, Paul Ryan would be president, right?

I suppose if they waited too long and democrats took control of the house Pelosi would be the speaker?... which is just as terrifying as Trump or Pence to me... I hate to say out of the choices I'd go with Paul Ryan

Correct.

How would it work if, for example, both Trump and Pence were impeached next week?  Would Paul Ryan be president for a little over 2 years, or would the new speaker of the house take over after the election?

Ryan would serve out the rest of Trump's term. But that's even less likely than Pelosi. Republicans would be happy to keep Pence.

[Spendulus]

Say your farewells to Trump, he's screwed

The Congress would have to do the screwing though... and they (well, the GOP part of it anyway) are not going to do anything to upset Trump voters.

I suppose if you can't find a single republican who cares about the law, Trump doesn't have anything to worry about (it's entirely possible)

But then again... there is an election in 3 months, and I highly doubt republicans will maintain control of congress after November... so he's got 3 months tops

You do realize there have been many, many Republicans that didn't like Trump.

Along with Democrats.

Are you a creature of the swamp who simply wants to protect it?

[Psec]

It's unlikely that Trump will be impeach by Republican house and Senate but this will work in favor of Democrat in midterm election

[Spendulus]

It's unlikely that Trump will be impeach by Republican house and Senate but this will work in favor of Democrat in midterm election

More attempts to present fake news as real.

You guys realize that this is an attempt to claim that Trump paying those women to shut up is a campaign violation, which means contributing to your own campaign is wrong?

That's a ridiculous assertion. There's no difference between paying them yourself and through an agent.

Blah-blah-blah.

Where's the Russia Collusion?

[suchmoon]

You guys realize that this is an attempt to claim that Trump paying those women to shut up is a campaign violation, which means contributing to your own campaign is wrong?

Even if you're right, candidate's own contributions would need to be reported. It that's all there is to it (unreported contribution) then he's just gonna get a slap on the wrist like many campaigns do for some bureaucratic reason or another. However if there is an illegal corporate contribution (AMI) or an over-limit personal contribution (Cohen) then Trump is potentially in some trouble if as alleged he coordinated with those entities.

[Moloch]

For a witch hunt, they sure seem to be finding a lot of witches.

WSJ: National Enquirer publisher David Pecker granted immunity
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/23/politics/david-pecker-immunity-cohen/index.html

David Pecker, the head of the company that publishes the National Enquirer, was granted immunity in the federal investigation into President Donald Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen in exchange for providing information on hush money deals, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Pecker, the CEO of American Media Inc., told federal prosecutors that Trump had knowledge of Cohen's payments to women who had alleged sexual encounters with him, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Pecker also provided investigators with details about payments Cohen made to the women, the sources said.
Representatives for American Media Inc. did not respond to a request for comment.

Cohen pleaded guilty Tuesday to eight criminal counts, including tax fraud, false statements to a bank and campaign finance violations.

In court Tuesday, Cohen said, "I and the CEO of a media company, at the request of the candidate, worked together" to squelch stories, effectively implicating Trump himself.
(...)

[Honour423]

And one juror away from it being 18 felonies.

[squatz1]

Removing the POTUS would require (1) impeachment by a simple majority in the House, which could be possible, and (2) conviction by two thirds in the Senate, which is extremely unlikely.

There is one hypothetical scenario if Democrats win the House and/or (very unlikely) the Senate. Republicans might rush to impeach Trump during the lame duck session as this would allow them to:

1) claim the high ground, law and order, etc;
2) craft the impeachment with all sorts of poison pills;
3) bonus: avoid the possibility of Democrats impeaching Trump AND Pence and putting Pelosi into the White House LOL.

People also don't understand the fact that if you remove Trump, who is someone who is HATED by the Democrats (and some moderates) by his strong stance on immigration, abortion, and so on and so forth. But when you're replacing someone like Trump I would assume people would want a push to moderate, but with removing him they're going to be getting Mike Pence

Mike Pence isn't anything close to moderate, and I think it would be fact for most people that Pence is much farther right then Trump on many things.

But I guess, back onto the topic.

I do think that people must remember that the crimes that Manafort committed had nothing to do with President Trump, and he is showing that he isn't going to flip (maybe because he has nothing to flip on, or maybe there's something that we're all not seeing at the moment) Though with Cohen, his crimes did relate to Donald Trump-- though I don't think the crimes that he committed were anything that should concern the President at all

I mean, Campaign Finance laws are laws without a doubt -- but the only thing I see coming out of this is a fine, which is what has happened to other politicians campaigns in the past. Though Muellers end game is to just try and flip people, though I would think that after this long something would have been dug up.

Lets see what will happen... I guess.

[theymos]

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

Although Cohen and Manafort both seem like highly unethical characters AFAICT (Cohen was secretly recording his clients in order to collect dirt on them, and Manafort apparently worked for an evil Ukrainian regime), the specifics of these cases make them look more like a move against Trump. For example, it's extremely unusual for anyone to be pursued for bank fraud in which the bank didn't actually lose any money, or criminally for this sort of campaign finance stuff. And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president. It'd be like saying that spending personal money to renovate your house was a campaign contribution because it'd look bad campaign-wise if you had a run-down-looking house; it's very tangential.

I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically. Impeachment is unlikely, but if it does happen, we might end up looking back on that pardon as being the thing which ultimately resulted in Trump getting impeached. But a strong desire to pardon is understandable from Trump's perspective.

From a libertarian perspective, this whole mess is probably pretty good because it keeps the government chaotic, divided, and busy, and maybe it'll even expose the stupidity of some of these "paperwork crimes".

[suchmoon]

I mean, Campaign Finance laws are laws without a doubt -- but the only thing I see coming out of this is a fine, which is what has happened to other politicians campaigns in the past. Though Muellers end game is to just try and flip people, though I would think that after this long something would have been dug up.

Lets see what will happen... I guess.

There's a couple of other people involved in all this by way of being granted immunity so presumably having some dirt on DJT: David Pecker as mentioned a few posts above, who helped bury the affairs, and Allen Weisselberg, Trump's CFO. Now that last one sounds ominous no matter how you look at it.

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

Some sort of jurisdictional thing? Cohen was charged by SDNY on relatively minor crimes and a plea deal might be done with Mueller on some more serious charges.

I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically. Impeachment is unlikely, but if it does happen, we might end up looking back on that pardon as being the thing which ultimately resulted in Trump getting impeached. But a strong desire to pardon is understandable from Trump's perspective.

I don't really understand that part, why does he want to pardon Manafort? Just because he didn't flip? It's not over yet, Manafort still has one federal suit pending and there's state-level tax fraud so he's likely going to jail even with the pardon.

[Steamtyme]

From what I've heard, Cohen's guilty plea was unusual in that he seemed to plea guilty without actually cooperating with law enforcement or even seeking a typical plea deal. I wonder what that's about.

The only move I see here is holding out for a better plea if needed down the road. Cohen can then leverage time served or some other trade off for information such as using the name of the "client running for federal office"; because until then it is just speculation as to who that could be. I feel his show of saying that he would not accept a pardon from the President, was a signal that he wants to play ball.

the specifics of these cases make them look more like a move against Trump. For example, it's extremely unusual for anyone to be pursued for bank fraud in which the bank didn't actually lose any money, or criminally for this sort of campaign finance stuff. And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president. It'd be like saying that spending personal money to renovate your house was a campaign contribution because it'd look bad campaign-wise if you had a run-down-looking house; it's very tangential.

That's exactly what both of these cases represent. Neither of these individuals would be facing any trial or investigation if they didn't fall within the scope of Mueller's probe. It's an interesting tactic and smart to use the full scope of investigation they can to cast a wide net and catch everything possible. The more people you can put pressure on the more likely you are to find the information you need to move forward. None of these charges are the endgame, they are small setup movements hoping to find what they are really looking for.
quote]
I think that Trump will pardon Manafort, which is a horrible move politically.
[/quote]

I've stopped guessing what he may do. It wouldn't be the first horrible political move he's made; but it has shown how much politicians will accept/tolerate/follow/bend to for the chance to hold onto their power for another term.

[Edward_Ray]

Crazy crazy stuff! It is really sad and exciting at the same time. Trump's legitimacy and stance keeps crumbling from all ends. But it will be very stupid and just waste of taxpayer's money if the man ends up not being impeached. I'm still confident that the whole collusion talk is bullshit though. It was only used as an opportunity to start digging up dirt on the already controversial man. Then the Trump Tower janitor witness came up yesterday. Seems some people are really doing their jobs passionately. Let the Americans keep distracting their President, the rest of the world is enjoying it.

[theymos]

I don't really understand that part, why does he want to pardon Manafort? Just because he didn't flip? It's not over yet, Manafort still has one federal suit pending and there's state-level tax fraud so he's likely going to jail even with the pardon.

Trump is friends with Manafort, he believes (maybe rightly) that Manafort would not be in any trouble if not for his association with Trump, and Manafort is remaining loyal. Trump has proven throughout his presidency that the #1 thing he cares about is personal loyalty, so he will feel obligated to protect Manafort here. Trump isn't the kind of person who can easily throw someone under the bus, and he will perceive not pardoning Manafort as doing so.

[Moloch]

Trump isn't the kind of person who can easily throw someone under the bus, and he will perceive not pardoning Manafort as doing so.

LMAO... Trump is exactly the kind of person to throw everyone under the bus.  The very first thing Trump does when someone accuses him of anything, is point the finger at someone else.  What did Trump say when accused of soliciting campaign contributions from foreign countries? "Hillary did it too!"  Trump is extremely narcissistic, he cares only about himself.  He will break any law he sees someone else break.  He wants to be the most corrupt of all politicians, he tries very hard at it

Poor Ted Cruz... thrown under the Trump bus

[squatz1]

Although Cohen and Manafort both seem like highly unethical characters AFAICT (Cohen was secretly recording his clients in order to collect dirt on them, and Manafort apparently worked for an evil Ukrainian regime), the specifics of these cases make them look more like a move against Trump. For example, it's extremely unusual for anyone to be pursued for bank fraud in which the bank didn't actually lose any money, or criminally for this sort of campaign finance stuff. And the campaign finance thing seems like a real stretch, since Trump has buried personally-damaging stories like this on several occasions before he was running for president. It'd be like saying that spending personal money to renovate your house was a campaign contribution because it'd look bad campaign-wise if you had a run-down-looking house; it's very tangential.

This is more of what I mean when I'm talking about these cases, as I do think that these cases are only being looked into due to the relation with Trump. If these were people who had no relation to Trump in the slightest, the penalties wouldn't be as stiff nor would anyone really care too much.

Campaign finance violation is without a doubt a reach, and it's something that Trump knows. He knows that other politicans have got in trouble for campaign finance-related activities -- and all it has lead to was some fines (nothing actually criminally)

I think all of this just helps Trump as he's going to cast the AG (DOJ) as working against him and the special counsel as meddling in things he has no business in.