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Author Topic: over $3! almost 50% gain in 72 hours!  (Read 6404 times)
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December 12, 2011, 05:59:20 AM
 #61

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proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before?

Just hanging around for the thrilling conclusion.

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Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

I'll have been wrong.

Well, you were wrong.

3$ new support level now?

Wrong again, proudhon. Sad

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December 12, 2011, 12:22:53 PM
 #62

4$ it's a strong resistance, but with enough volume activity is possible to go through, you guys should look also volume activity and not only price action. Considering that tick data is free in this market (compared to other markets where you have to pay) it is valuable to do a proper uptick/downtick volume analysis, especially the cumulation of the volume on upticks minus volume on downticks.

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December 22, 2011, 02:15:05 AM
 #63

It does not seem to be able to break $4 for long.  Hopefully it wont slide back to the $2 range.
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December 22, 2011, 02:24:04 AM
 #64

It does not seem to be able to break $4 for long.  Hopefully it wont slide back to the $2 range.

Lots of people are piling on the asks right now.  I think there's a good chance we'll slide down.  To $2?  Probably not.  I could see the price dipping into the 2s though.
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December 22, 2011, 03:41:11 AM
 #65

Thats funny I noticed that the huge 15k askwall at $4 is much smaller so I feel the exact opposite as you.

Wishing for the price to drop won't make it so! You sure are one determined bear.
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December 22, 2011, 07:43:37 AM
 #66

Thats funny I noticed that the huge 15k askwall at $4 is much smaller so I feel the exact opposite as you.

Wishing for the price to drop won't make it so! You sure are one determined bear.

Has nothing to do with what anyone "wishes". 

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December 24, 2011, 08:44:47 AM
 #67


Lots of people are piling on the asks right now.  I think there's a good chance we'll slide down.  To $2?  Probably not.  I could see the price dipping into the 2s though.

Excellent, let them sell cheap now and buy high later. Escapes me how you guys can sell a commodity that has a max of $4 to fall, but on the other side a fantastic amount to gain.

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December 24, 2011, 09:49:47 AM
 #68


Lots of people are piling on the asks right now.  I think there's a good chance we'll slide down.  To $2?  Probably not.  I could see the price dipping into the 2s though.

Excellent, let them sell cheap now and buy high later. Escapes me how you guys can sell a commodity that has a max of $4 to fall, but on the other side a fantastic amount to gain.

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

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December 24, 2011, 11:03:18 AM
 #69

I feel that bitcoin seems to be consolidating near $4, waiting for an opportunity to break through it once and for all.  Will we see a $20 bitcoin?  For me I rather hold bitcoins than USD Smiley
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December 24, 2011, 01:22:32 PM
 #70

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

Why not? I don't know about you, but watching MtGoxLive all day does not seem to be worth my while. Contracting in the range of EUR 60-90 per hour and simply keeping the position until Bitcoin is THE currency seems a much better strategy to me. I trust that Bitcoin will yield >100% a year, the next 10 years. Without doing anything.

Daytrading with $5 Million may be different, but it seems to me that no one is doing that. There must be some trading with 100K, but most seem to trade with less than $1K. You guys are wasting your time.

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December 24, 2011, 04:53:25 PM
 #71

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

Why not? I don't know about you, but watching MtGoxLive all day does not seem to be worth my while. Contracting in the range of EUR 60-90 per hour and simply keeping the position until Bitcoin is THE currency seems a much better strategy to me. I trust that Bitcoin will yield >100% a year, the next 10 years. Without doing anything.

Daytrading with $5 Million may be different, but it seems to me that no one is doing that. There must be some trading with 100K, but most seem to trade with less than $1K. You guys are wasting your time.

I don't think I'm wasting my time. If I can double my holdings, then that is double the thousands when a BTC is worth $1000. I started with my first 60 mined BTC. I have since turned that into a fairly large holding with only a small cost from mining the first 60. When we saw very large amounts of volatility in previous months, I was nearly doubling my normal income. Then I decided that I wanted more BTC, not the dollars, so I double down any chance I get.
I trade with <$100k and >$1k.

At $4, a small change in price is a much larger percentage than the same change at $32. So, if anything, it would be more important to keep a close eye on the price at $4, then it was at $32. I'm not a fan of 50% loss. If I can avoid it, I will.

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December 25, 2011, 12:39:00 AM
 #72

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

Why not? I don't know about you, but watching MtGoxLive all day does not seem to be worth my while. Contracting in the range of EUR 60-90 per hour and simply keeping the position until Bitcoin is THE currency seems a much better strategy to me. I trust that Bitcoin will yield >100% a year, the next 10 years. Without doing anything.

Daytrading with $5 Million may be different, but it seems to me that no one is doing that. There must be some trading with 100K, but most seem to trade with less than $1K. You guys are wasting your time.

I don't think I'm wasting my time. If I can double my holdings, then that is double the thousands when a BTC is worth $1000. I started with my first 60 mined BTC. I have since turned that into a fairly large holding with only a small cost from mining the first 60. When we saw very large amounts of volatility in previous months, I was nearly doubling my normal income. Then I decided that I wanted more BTC, not the dollars, so I double down any chance I get.
I trade with <$100k and >$1k.

At $4, a small change in price is a much larger percentage than the same change at $32. So, if anything, it would be more important to keep a close eye on the price at $4, then it was at $32. I'm not a fan of 50% loss. If I can avoid it, I will.

Well, IF you can double your holdings, it will be double the thousands when BTC is worth a mere $10.

But, for me the downside to daytrading isn't having to watch MtGoxLive all day.  Its the upside risk of selling.

Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.

During a strong pop, you won't be able to buy in where you sold.  And if you trade every time you get an itch, you'll lose the spread (which is worse than the fees).  If you're confident, then just hang on tight during an uptrend.

And remember, think logarithmically.  It was $2 to $4 with a stop at $3, because that was counter-trend.  But, if/when it breaks $5, it will go to $10 ($9/$9.5 more specifically) in the blink of an eye.  You'll be very lucky if you get the chance to buy at $4.50 or $6.

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December 25, 2011, 03:25:46 AM
 #73




Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.


That's an important point. It's easy to increase bitcoin holdings on a downtrend.. But then the same would be achieved without daytrading if you sold in July and bought again in November.
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December 25, 2011, 03:50:11 AM
 #74


Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.


That's an important point. It's easy to increase bitcoin holdings on a downtrend.. But then the same would be achieved without daytrading if you sold in July and bought again in November.

Well, if you had a crystal ball that told you to do that (or you were a very good trader), then you would have achieved gains much, much higher.

There's nothing easier than armchair trading.  It's pretty obvious in retrospect.

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December 25, 2011, 06:04:49 AM
 #75


Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.


That's an important point. It's easy to increase bitcoin holdings on a downtrend.. But then the same would be achieved without daytrading if you sold in July and bought again in November.

Well, if you had a crystal ball that told you to do that (or you were a very good trader), then you would have achieved gains much, much higher.

There's nothing easier than armchair trading.  It's pretty obvious in retrospect.

Agreed! Plus there is much lower risk in doing it like that.
I sort of play a double game. I have large(er) bids out in the outskirts to catch the big swings, then I play with a smaller pile of BTC at short spreads to play the normal fluctuations. And, I know! Trading on noise can be futile, but so far, I've done pretty well. Even with the obvious "Price Enforcement".

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December 25, 2011, 08:37:33 AM
 #76

Agreed! Plus there is much lower risk in doing it like that.
I sort of play a double game. I have large(er) bids out in the outskirts to catch the big swings, then I play with a smaller pile of BTC at short spreads to play the normal fluctuations. And, I know! Trading on noise can be futile, but so far, I've done pretty well. Even with the obvious "Price Enforcement".

Managing the risk of your portfolio like that is smart, and requires good discipline.  It's about your appetite for risk.

Of course, low risk equals low rewards.  But high risk can equal high losses.  That's why I stay off bitcoinica, so I never get zhoutonged if I'm wrong.

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December 25, 2011, 12:12:20 PM
 #77

I use bitcoinica because it's the only place I can go long by laying down btc

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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December 25, 2011, 12:54:47 PM
 #78

I use bitcoinica because it's the only place I can go long by laying down btc

https://icbit.se/

Thanks.  I signed up when they first announced it but It had no functionality then.  I'll check it out.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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December 25, 2011, 12:59:18 PM
 #79

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Speed: ICBIT is developed with intraday trading in mind, so executing thousands of traders per hour is not a problem

Ok.... Now I'm worried Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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