TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead?

[MatTheCat]

The chart above is self explanatory. Since the crash, we have been knocking against the upper limits of the long term downtrend. Prior to the $400 crash, was the 10K Whale (or 10K noob according to spastics like billyjoeallen) who tricked automated trading bots into soaking up 3.5 million USD of $580 coin ($579.64 to be precise) before crashing the remaining 4.5K into the Bid Wall. This is a shit ton of liquidity, much of which would have be assumed was leverage. On the 85% post crash bounce from $400 we reached $610, but have generally been trending back down since then. In the shorter term, since we have dipped below the $580 mark, Bitcoin has proven very reluctant to get back above this point. Some whale operating on Bitstamp/Bitfinex just recently tried to manipulate a break out above this point (perhaps merely farming shorter stop losses) with a 1K BTC playing chip placed on the Bid wall just below spot. This resulted in a flurry of panic buying which stopped short of this critical level.

In the medium term, I absolutely do not buy into any of the fear of lower lows. Once the post bounce support level is established, I would consider that it will be grind up until at least the strong $765 resistance level.

In the near term however, I am open to the possibility of Bitcoin going two ways. If the price van break out above $580 and then successfully test this level on strong volume, then it will be time to go long Bitcoin. If however, all the momentum indicators are maxed out and are pointing back down whilst we are still sub $580, then short Bitcoin, looking to come out at any of a range of supports starting at $530-$540 down to $460 as an absolute lower limit. No chance are we going any lower than that. As a dedicated disciple of the Mighty Karhu, even I have to concede that $400 was the bottom.......for the time being at least and the time being is all that a trader cares about.

At the moment, a general declining in volume momentum above all else, suggests that the market is much more likely to go down from here rather than up. For the break out to occur, it would require a rather large influx of buying pressure to take Bitcoin up beyond this critical resistance level, and then hold it there.

[knightcoin]

would help cross it with blockchain records

[MatTheCat]

would help cross it with blockchain records

Blockchain records?

That sounds like TA 202.

I aint there yet.

[chesthing]

Your conclusion is what i come to simply by reading the newses and looking at that
butt-ugliness from $800. Keep the analysis coming though, it's very interesting.

[mmitech]

I agree with most of your post, but I am sure that this weekend will decide the direction of the trend, I say if we continue to resist the downtrend and push the price up a bit then this may be the second bottom and we can go up. why ? ok hear me out.

the 4h chart show that the MACD persiods are going to cross, with some volume and a bit of a push it will bring confidence which means that the 6h,12h charts MACD wont even get close to crossing and put us in a long bullish market.

as proving for all the above, the 1d chart already crossed and is showing a bull market, for this to continue we all need volume, and pushing the price from 570-650 would make it even clearer.

[knightcoin]

 

[bitcoinsrus]

so you guys believe it will go down from here (a little)?  When uptrend?  mid march maybe april?

[wendel]

I also saw this possible breakout point ahead. But I'm not sure if there will be enough power to buy up 4.5k of coins just to get past 600.
Maybe there is a chance to continue sideways in order to get out of the downtrend?

[MatTheCat]

I agree with most of your post, but I am sure that this weekend will decide the direction of the trend, I say if we continue to resist the downtrend and push the price up a bit then this may be the second bottom and we can go up. why ? ok hear me out.

the 4h chart show that the MACD persiods are going to cross, with some volume and a bit of a push it will bring confidence which means that the 6h,12h charts MACD wont even get close to crossing and put us in a long bullish market.

as proving for all the above, the 1d chart already crossed and is showing a bull market, for this to continue we all need volume, and pushing the price from 570-650 would make it even clearer.

I think that is what you might call selective TA.

Lots can happen in between a 4hr MACD approaching crossover and the 4Hr uptrend being confirmed. Also, the market is far too flat at the moment to be trading long on such long term indicators, that have declining volume momentum stacked firmly against them.


@bitcoinsrus

If you want to buy right now, then in the long run $570 will be a decent enough price up to at least the $750 resistance (in my humble opinion). If however you don't want to risk the excruciating agony of whating your Bitcoins on Bitstamp at 10%+ cheaper than what you paid for them, set yourself buy-in tranches from $540 down no further than $460. If lower supports than the recent $530 range don't transpire, then be prepared to jump on the bus at a confirmed (don't buy on mere price spike up to above here) $580 price level.

Remember. You came here when Bitcoin was at $820 and everyone was yelling at you to buy and hold as much as you possibly could. Well, any price in $500 range is much better than any price in the $800 range I am sure you would agree. But if you don't want to take risks of further drops, then do as I say. That way, even if $400 turns out not to be the near term bottom, then you are in a much better position to cover your ass on the inevitable bounce from the 'lower low', which I strongly doubt is going to happen.

[Solarstorm75]

The upper border of your donwtrend seems not to be correct.

This should be the right one:




The upper zone is sell zone.

The middle zone is chillout zone.

The bottom zone is buy zone.


But I'd recommend not to enter the market in the next weeks.

Btw. I posted this trend several days ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26136.msg5331362#msg5331362

[chesthing]

Good stuff Solarstorm.
I'm still not quite sure how a few bots on low volume pushing the price over $580 means a thing about future movement. I think the news is #1 thing to look at right now.

[CoinRocka]

My buddy went to Vegas and bet on black 11 straight times doubling his bet after each loss.  Walked back to the hotel...

Long on bitcoin, daytrading this bastard will surely kill you.

[stylin]

I feel a long bear market coming, at least a year if not two... Right now everyone and their mom is bullish on bitcoin, and IMO that is not a good sign. Bitcoin is continuously in the spotlight now... I do not believe it can rise like this, it needs to rise quietly and stealthily.

Source: 2 months' experience of trading and speculation. I am obviously a PRO!

[podyx]

nice posts here

[akujin]

535 on monday!
470 on thursday!
 

[threecats]

Glad to see some good charting and discussion going on. I would like to hear theories on

1) how much the pall of the gox bankruptcy, reduced liquidity (especially on bitstamp, where it seems to me that 10,000 dump is still clearly showing its wake, even days later) skews the TA.

2)  what are the motivations / seroiusness of the heavy bid walls both above and below the current price point, and how motivated they are to hold ground in the face of market movement.

3) when movement does come, which exchange will lead? BFX seems to be full of people chewing at the bit. Stamp seems lethargic and illiquid. Huobi seems to be following its own drum of late.

[podyx]

My buddy went to Vegas and bet on black 11 straight times doubling his bet after each loss.  Walked back to the hotel...

What do you mean by this??

[wendel]

Stamp is now 100% connected to huobi and doesn't act independently at the moment.
So when huobi makes a move exactly the same is done on stamp.
And since huobi has smaller candle steps to move upwards it looks like stamp is slow.
(hope my observations are right)

[MatTheCat]

But I'd recommend not to enter the market in the next weeks.

Btw. I posted this trend several days ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26136.msg5331362#msg5331362

Yeah. My long term trend line is admittedly dismissive of emotional or short squeezing price spikes in order to suit the 'knocking on the door' trend that we are now in. I wouldn't recommend that anyone pile in just as soon as $580 is breached by some bot's playing pass the parcel on a few Bitcoin. But if $580 is breached and then confirmed as support, then I will start entering the market long. I know the significance of $580 as a support if a break out of the long term down trend occurs. I sat and watched how the 10K noob placed his sell order in Bid Wall during China Prime Time. Gox was then driven down, the dumb bot traders on the other USD exchanges then followed suit, driving Stamp, BTC-E, etc also down. Then Gox was ramped right up from $112 to $240. The bot trading on Stamp was thus tricked into pissing $3.5 million USD of liquidity into the whales 10K wall. After it stopped working (just before China bedtime), the 10K whale then casually dropped his remaining 4.5K coins into the Bid Wall on Stamp, driving prices down to $514 before instant bounce back, right up until $580, where the price would not cross and has relied upon bounce momentum to cross above this point since then, but once again seems to be holding as a stubborn resistance.

Im Gegensatz zu Dir, fühle ich gar Keine Angst vor weiteren Niedergänge Bitcoins, die niedriger als $400 absenken werden und beim Bitcoinhandeln, verlasse ich mich auf mein Bauchgefühl sehr. Bis jetzt, hat es mir sehr gut verdient!

Stamp is now 100% connected to huobi and doesn't act independently at the moment.
So when huobi makes a move exactly the same is done on stamp.
And since huobi has smaller candle steps to move upwards it looks like stamp is slow.
(hope my observations are right)

Yup. And all the big moves are kicked off on Huobi. Probably a fake volume means of manipulating western markets. But I still 'feel' that the shit is over for now give or take the odd support confirmation and that a rise up to perhaps $765 range is on the horizon.

[bitcoinsrus]

I agree with most of your post, but I am sure that this weekend will decide the direction of the trend, I say if we continue to resist the downtrend and push the price up a bit then this may be the second bottom and we can go up. why ? ok hear me out.

the 4h chart show that the MACD persiods are going to cross, with some volume and a bit of a push it will bring confidence which means that the 6h,12h charts MACD wont even get close to crossing and put us in a long bullish market.

as proving for all the above, the 1d chart already crossed and is showing a bull market, for this to continue we all need volume, and pushing the price from 570-650 would make it even clearer.

I think that is what you might call selective TA.

Lots can happen in between a 4hr MACD approaching crossover and the 4Hr uptrend being confirmed. Also, the market is far too flat at the moment to be trading long on such long term indicators, that have declining volume momentum stacked firmly against them.


@bitcoinsrus

If you want to buy right now, then in the long run $570 will be a decent enough price up to at least the $750 resistance (in my humble opinion). If however you don't want to risk the excruciating agony of whating your Bitcoins on Bitstamp at 10%+ cheaper than what you paid for them, set yourself buy-in tranches from $540 down no further than $460. If lower supports than the recent $530 range don't transpire, then be prepared to jump on the bus at a confirmed (don't buy on mere price spike up to above here) $580 price level.

Remember. You came here when Bitcoin was at $820 and everyone was yelling at you to buy and hold as much as you possibly could. Well, any price in $500 range is much better than any price in the $800 range I am sure you would agree. But if you don't want to take risks of further drops, then do as I say. That way, even if $400 turns out not to be the near term bottom, then you are in a much better position to cover your ass on the inevitable bounce from the 'lower low', which I strongly doubt is going to happen.

i really wish i bought at 400 last week (24th or 25th) i didnt because I bought a cointerra (from someone on here on the 14th).  I resold for a little profit.  But I missed the 400 dip.  I literally am waiting for my bitstamp transfer to go through but its taking forever.  I hope i get sub 500 next week and hopefully my funds finally get added so I can begin.  Any advice on shorting?