TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead?

[oda.krell]

Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)

Thanks for the kind of advice....

We are both agreed that the market was looking stagnant, weak, and set for another leg down to confirm a low volume higher low, right?

So where is this fucking mass of buying power coming from? Where are all these massive bidding walls coming from? This is tens of millions of USD buying right at upper extremities of a highly depressed market in amongst a shit-storm of very scary Bitcoin news. Bottoms do not normally play out like this!

Granted, it 'might' be some megawhales looking to trigger another parabolic surge into Bitcoin, but would you not agree, that this has timed perfectly with the very first eastern Europe business hours, on the first banking day of the week after Putin marched his soldiers into the Crimea region of Ukraine?

Maybe I'm just a narcicist, but for me it's all about my own reactions, and observing them. You know with which thought I woke up today, 2nd time in a row? "I hope price acts nice today, and I can buy back in at a small profit, or at least profit neutral".

Once I realized that, I knew I'd buy back at a loss. Then I waited another hour, and paid for it.

The next step is simply: If *I* hope for a new bottom, for cheaper prices, while sitting on a big fat pile of cash, then why wouldn't others do as well. We're just one big pack of monkeys waiting for one of us making a move first, then rushing to get in on the action as well once it's clear it's a trend.

It's the same thing over and over again. And, yes, I also fall for it more often than not as well: volume can be a poor indicator, when there's money sitting on the sidelines. So what it takes is a short crash to reveal the underlying buying pressure. We had that "flipping the light on in a dark room" moment, at 400. *That* was the volume I should have focused on, not the pathetic volume of the last days.

If a room full of gunpowder blows up because some guy lights a match, who do you call responsible for the explosion? The match, or the room full of gunpowder? The match was that whale on bitstamp today, at midnight. But what actually blew up was built up buying pressure.

Take that interpretation or leave it, but I find it more plausible than that a few thousand people suddenly decide that *now* is the right time where the already well known Ukraine clusterfuck *really* warrants buying into Bitcoin big time.

[Cassius]

Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)

Thanks for the kind of advice....

We are both agreed that the market was looking stagnant, weak, and set for another leg down to confirm a low volume higher low, right?

So where is this fucking mass of buying power coming from? Where are all these massive bidding walls coming from? This is tens of millions of USD buying right at upper extremities of a highly depressed market in amongst a shit-storm of very scary Bitcoin news. Bottoms do not normally play out like this!

Granted, it 'might' be some megawhales looking to trigger another parabolic surge into Bitcoin, but would you not agree, that this has timed perfectly with the very first eastern Europe business hours, on the first banking day of the week after Putin marched his soldiers into the Crimea region of Ukraine?

Is that right? I thought things went crazy at 4pm UK time (where I am) which is start of office hours in America?
I was wondering whether things would crash again at midnight my time, 8 hours after the rally started.
Have I missed something/screwed up my timezones?

[hdbuck]

Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)

Thanks for the kind of advice....

We are both agreed that the market was looking stagnant, weak, and set for another leg down to confirm a low volume higher low, right?

So where is this fucking mass of buying power coming from? Where are all these massive bidding walls coming from? This is tens of millions of USD buying right at upper extremities of a highly depressed market in amongst a shit-storm of very scary Bitcoin news. Bottoms do not normally play out like this!

Granted, it 'might' be some megawhales looking to trigger another parabolic surge into Bitcoin, but would you not agree, that this has timed perfectly with the very first eastern Europe business hours, on the first banking day of the week after Putin marched his soldiers into the Crimea region of Ukraine?

Is that right? I thought things went crazy at 4pm UK time (where I am) which is start of office hours in America?
I was wondering whether things would crash again at midnight my time, 8 hours after the rally started.
Have I missed something/screwed up my timezones?

bitcoin doesnt seems to really stick with specific timezones. sometimes its the chineese, sometimes cyprus, sometimes the US, or sometimes some lost whales god knows were..

[MatTheCat]

Thanks for the kind of advice....

We are both agreed that the market was looking stagnant, weak, and set for another leg down to confirm a low volume higher low, right?

So where is this fucking mass of buying power coming from? Where are all these massive bidding walls coming from? This is tens of millions of USD buying right at upper extremities of a highly depressed market in amongst a shit-storm of very scary Bitcoin news. Bottoms do not normally play out like this!

Granted, it 'might' be some megawhales looking to trigger another parabolic surge into Bitcoin, but would you not agree, that this has timed perfectly with the very first eastern Europe business hours, on the first banking day of the week after Putin marched his soldiers into the Crimea region of Ukraine?

Is that right? I thought things went crazy at 4pm UK time (where I am) which is start of office hours in America?
I was wondering whether things would crash again at midnight my time, 8 hours after the rally started.
Have I missed something/screwed up my timezones?

I am in UK and this started at around 7am.

Huge amount of buying power in the form of buy tranches of up to 3K BTC at a time. Was so much grateful sellers that the price did not budge much, then the next large tranches came and then the next. By the final round of buy-in tranches, obviously Bitcoin went parabolic as every other Bitcoin investor in the land started panic buying. Seems to have calmed for now.

The 64K dollar questions are:

How long are these new price insensitive panic Bitcoin buyers going to hold to their coins for?

Will they be cashing them all out tomorrow when they arrive wherever they want them to go?

Will their be more rounds of mad buy-ins tomorrow?

If this is all due to Ukrainian capital flight/hedging against currency collapse, what are the routes for getting capital onto the exchanges? Just the same as for us, or do they need to take 'special' routes?

Knowing the answer to these questions could make the difference between waking up 20% in profit, or 20% (or even more) in deficit.

[chesthing]

Matt, there aren't any answers here. This forum basically consists of early adopters holding tons of coins bought cheap laughing their asses off at newcomers like us. No one knows dick about what will happen next, ta is next to worthless, it's just great entertainment for the lucky few.

[SlidingHorn]

Matt, there aren't any answers here. This forum basically consists of early adopters holding tons of coins bought cheap laughing their asses off at newcomers like us. No one knows dick about what will happen next, ta is next to worthless, it's just great entertainment for the lucky few.

I won't lie, I do feel this sentiment a little at times.  It does seem like it's very hard to get anywhere when you're looking up such a large mountain of coins at these big holders.

Doesn't mean I'm not going to try like hell, though!

[MatTheCat]

Matt, there aren't any answers here. This forum basically consists of early adopters holding tons of coins bought cheap laughing their asses off at newcomers like us. No one knows dick about what will happen next, ta is next to worthless, it's just great entertainment for the lucky few.

At some point though, those early adopters bit the bullet and pulled the trigger on something that could have went to zero the next week.

Having short sold much of the way down, profiting but making terrible exit decisions, I bought on bounce at $480. I thought I was smart selling at $550 in front of a 5K Ask wall on Stamp.....that was devoured quite literally 2 minutes after I sold.

Had I just held those $480 coins, I would be sitting back laughing right now.

Most of these early adopters really have next to zero market acumen yet they all think they possess wisdom well beyond that of their follow mortal. Take billyjoeallen. One of the biggest idiots on the forum....yet maxed out credit card debt to get in on double digit Bitcoin. Is now fkn loaded.....and thinks he is smart, when he is anything but.

But what they did clearly have was gonads, or simply the luck to get in on Bitcoin when a small throw-away amount of money could have bought dozens or even treble figure amounts of Bitcoin. Bought and spent plenty single digit Bitcoins on Silk Road myself.

Depending on what the reason(s) were for these mass purchases that triggered the bull run. Bitcoin could rocket yet further skywards tomorrow, or fall right back down to the $500s.

For us late adopters who have had every chance to buy much lower and hold, but didn't do so cos we thought we had a decent enough grasp on the markets (until some X-Factor comes right in out of knowhere and blows the trends out the water), this dilemna is like a razer blade dancing around our throats.

[chesthing]

Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

[pungopete468]

Wow, who saw that one coming?

I was afraid of this, I thought the longer term market trend would sustain; I was wrong and I got pinched.

I don't see this one turning back around. I think it's time to start considering that $550 could possibly be the new $130.

The people rushing in are likely looking for Haven Currencies; this might have some real strong legs if tensions continue to rise.

[MatTheCat]

Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

This can only be Ukraine situation.

Ukraine itself and the fear affecting the Russian economy.

The Ukraine withdrawal limit was announced only on Friday 28th, in which case the buying pressure today, was merely the fastest money to get out the country, or capital that was already on Bitstamp with much more in the wire to follow it.

I have just thrown all TA principles and caution out the window and have piled in on Bitstamp at $680...yep, it is down already. It might be down further by tomorrow, but that is the risk that I am taking.

I have become a HOLDER.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

This can only be Ukraine situation.

Ukraine itself and the fear affecting the Russian economy.

The Ukraine withdrawal limit was announced only on Friday 28th, in which case the buying pressure today, was merely the fastest money to get out the country, or capital that was already on Bitstamp with much more in the wire to follow it.

I have just thrown all TA principles and caution out the window and have piled in on Bitstamp at $680...yep, it is down already. It might be down further by tomorrow, but that is the risk that I am taking.

I have become a HOLDER.

What about the goxxed whales who thought they owned a bunch of bitcoins (or had a bunch of gox-dollars ready for the bottom) only to find out they didn't own (or have) shit.

Perhaps some of them saw $400 as the bottom and want back in the market. They certainly can't do it at Gox!

How long does it take to get money into BitStamp?

4/5 days max
If you're already verified

[RyNinDaCleM]

Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

This can only be Ukraine situation.

Ukraine itself and the fear affecting the Russian economy.

The Ukraine withdrawal limit was announced only on Friday 28th, in which case the buying pressure today, was merely the fastest money to get out the country, or capital that was already on Bitstamp with much more in the wire to follow it.

I have just thrown all TA principles and caution out the window and have piled in on Bitstamp at $680...yep, it is down already. It might be down further by tomorrow, but that is the risk that I am taking.

I have become a HOLDER.

What about the goxxed whales who thought they owned a bunch of bitcoins (or had a bunch of gox-dollars ready for the bottom) only to find out they didn't own (or have) shit.

Perhaps some of them saw $400 as the bottom and want back in the market. They certainly can't do it at Gox!

How long does it take to get money into BitStamp?

4/5 days max
If you're already verified

Business days? So it could fit? We hit 400 a week ago today.

There might even be some lag for them to actually make the decision to continue to play this market after burning themselves so badly.

Yes, business days. I'm in the US so this is intl. wire I'm talking about
Those who live on the same continent as Stamp might be able to move money faster.

[sgbett]

Yes, business days. I'm in the US so this is intl. wire I'm talking about
Those who live on the same continent as Stamp might be able to move money faster.

you can get it same day depending on who you bank with (urgent SEPA, but it costs 30GPB)

but in answer to the general question of "wheres all this buying coming from" did anyone really think that the gajillion dollars everyone "made" panic selling was going to be withdrawn and spent on hookers and blow?

its probably mostly waiting to buy back in cheaper. along with all the new money floating around that thought it might like a piece but was just waiting for the right time to buy.

like oda said "all the monkeys are just looking at each others bottom" or at least I think it was something like that

holding out for the best price, is just the other side of the coin of catching the falling knife.

if you didn't already do your averaging down during the latest ~70% off sale (70% interesting number it might very well be 68.2% depending on how you are measuring!) when everyone was shitting their pants that bitcoin was doomed (and I'm sure many still are)... well then I think you may have been looking at the wrong indicators. In fact the best TA opinion I read recently was the one that was correlating movement with phases of the moon. Human's are animals, evolution is just extra layers of paint on the same canvas.

now in the interests of fairness if you want to talk about *my* mistakes then just bring up mtgox and/or bitcoinbuilder I'm a big boy though. I knew what I was getting myself in to

full disclosure: currently 320% bitcoin and 0% fiat.

[sgbett]

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.msg5469510#msg5469510

[bitcoinsrus]

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.msg5469510#msg5469510

   you must be some kind of wizard.  I plan to cold store until 2016 (or sooner).  What do you think the price would be in 1-2 yrs?

[chesthing]

Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

This can only be Ukraine situation.

Ukraine itself and the fear affecting the Russian economy.

The Ukraine withdrawal limit was announced only on Friday 28th, in which case the buying pressure today, was merely the fastest money to get out the country, or capital that was already on Bitstamp with much more in the wire to follow it.

I have just thrown all TA principles and caution out the window and have piled in on Bitstamp at $680...yep, it is down already. It might be down further by tomorrow, but that is the risk that I am taking.

I have become a HOLDER.

I gave up and bought back in myself. There goes all the profit I made buying in mid $400s selling high $500s. I swear I've got to be the worst trader ever, I'm sure I will wake up to $500 coins now, just because I bought of course. At least I haven't lost any money, I just haven't made any yet. I suck.

[sgbett]

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.msg5469510#msg5469510

   you must be some kind of wizard.  I plan to cold store until 2016 (or sooner).  What do you think the price would be in 1-2 yrs?

I don't know. Probably higher than now, but maybe not.

It could all go to zero tomorrow.

As long as you remember that, and are cool with it if it happens, then you'll be fine.

[MatTheCat]

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.msg5469510#msg5469510

   you must be some kind of wizard.  I plan to cold store until 2016 (or sooner).  What do you think the price would be in 1-2 yrs?

What price did you end up buying in at bitcoinsrus?

P.S. He aint a wizard. He is a nutter. He was screaming at me to buy cheap coins at $820 not more than a month ago.

I gave up and bought back in myself. There goes all the profit I made buying in mid $400s selling high $500s. I swear I've got to be the worst trader ever, I'm sure I will wake up to $500 coins now, just because I bought of course. At least I haven't lost any money, I just haven't made any yet. I suck.

Same boat. If I wake up to $500 region Bitcoins tomorrow then that along with some of my shitty short trades of late, will swallow up all my profit over the past 10 days which would mean I have been banging my head at these charts for no reason. But I think I could take that better than waking up and seeing it $750 or whatever...which in comparison to today's massive rise, is relatively modest. Common sense tells me it must come down lower than what I re-bought in at (which was higher than I sold at), but if the same customer(s) turn up at the exchange tomorrow, as did today for round two of their buying program, then it will absolutely go through the roof once again.

[sgbett]

And just to totally tempt fate, I did give fair warning

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.msg5469510#msg5469510

   you must be some kind of wizard.  I plan to cold store until 2016 (or sooner).  What do you think the price would be in 1-2 yrs?

What price did you end up buying in at bitcoinsrus?

P.S. He aint a wizard. He is a nutter. He was screaming at me to buy cheap coins at $820 not more than a month ago.

I gave up and bought back in myself. There goes all the profit I made buying in mid $400s selling high $500s. I swear I've got to be the worst trader ever, I'm sure I will wake up to $500 coins now, just because I bought of course. At least I haven't lost any money, I just haven't made any yet. I suck.

Same boat. If I wake up to $500 region Bitcoins tomorrow then that along with some of my shitty short trades of late, will swallow up all my profit over the past 10 days which would mean I have been banging my head at these charts for no reason. But I think I could take that better than waking up and seeing it $750 or whatever...which in comparison to today's massive rise, is relatively modest. Common sense tells me it must come down lower than what I re-bought in at (which was higher than I sold at), but if the same customer(s) turn up at the exchange tomorrow, as did today for round two of their buying program, then it will absolutely go through the roof once again.

I see your sense of self importance his still intact. Good for you. If reading comprehension fails, then just pretend you know more than everyone else. I've got another great strategy, buy on one site and short on another you can't lose!  

[MatTheCat]

I see your sense of self importance his still intact. Good for you. If reading comprehension fails, then just pretend you know more than everyone else. I've got another great strategy, buy on one site and short on another you can't lose!  

Turns out you can lose. Some whale can come to market and send the market in the complete opposite direction of what it was heading in the most spectacular fashion. My short got margin called. A $666.67 loss I took on that, with all the other fees that the exchange steals from you not included.

Then on the rise, I thought I would be smart and try and trade the tops...turns out it wasn't so smart and I would end up buying back for more than I sold at, so I never tried to trade the $710 top. Now, that would have been smart. Instead, I sold 75% of what I had at $650, fearing a smack down that would wipe out all my profits....turns out, I burned myself again.......I am very bad at trading when the market is so intense. I cant trust any decision that I need to make in the heat of the moment when emotions come into play.

This market is enough to drive anyone to fkn distraction.