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Author Topic: Turkey’s economic crisis can trigger the next crypto bull run  (Read 454 times)
Esqarrouth
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August 25, 2018, 11:43:32 PM
 #1

https://hackernoon.com/turkeys-economic-crisis-can-trigger-the-next-crypto-bull-run-86e53392d9bc

What do you guys think?  Huh
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August 26, 2018, 03:45:34 AM
Merited by BitHodler (1), eaglewhite80 (1)
 #2

So far there is no clear example of Bitcoin growing as the result of some economic disaster. People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency. Turkey's economy is also too small to have significant effect on Bitcoin, if we had a crisis in EU or the US, that would be more likely to boost Bitcoin's price, but I doubt it would be enough to trigger a true bull run.

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August 26, 2018, 06:05:42 AM
 #3

So far there is no clear example of Bitcoin growing as the result of some economic disaster. People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency. Turkey's economy is also too small to have significant effect on Bitcoin, if we had a crisis in EU or the US, that would be more likely to boost Bitcoin's price, but I doubt it would be enough to trigger a true bull run.

The GDP of Turkey was around 1 trillion USD.I don't think that the Turkish economy is small.However,the current situation around the turkish lira show that there's no impact over the cryptocurrency prices.Nobody in Turkey is buying crypto to preserve the value of his savings.Actually,I saw that people in Turkey are buying more turkish lira in order to recover it's value. 

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August 26, 2018, 09:56:48 AM
Merited by eaglewhite80 (1)
 #4

Over the long term, the idea of economic crisis being contained inside turkey's borders could prove to be flawed.

Turkey's economic crisis, like venezuela's, might be traced back to overprinting of fiat currency.

If accurate, it could mean that every major nation on earth will experience this form of economic crisis inevitably as the united states, european union and major nations are all overprinting increasingly large sums of fiat in an effort to stave off deficit and debt.

While this could be good for bitcoin's value and longevity as increasingly large numbers of people transfer wealth into crypto markets in an effort to escape inflation, the economic implications could be terribad.

Sorry to say the sky is blue and water is wet but this does appear to be a somewhat neglected issue.

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August 26, 2018, 10:36:39 AM
Merited by BitHodler (1)
 #5

So far there is no clear example of Bitcoin growing as the result of some economic disaster. People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency. Turkey's economy is also too small to have significant effect on Bitcoin, if we had a crisis in EU or the US, that would be more likely to boost Bitcoin's price, but I doubt it would be enough to trigger a true bull run.

The GDP of Turkey was around 1 trillion USD.I don't think that the Turkish economy is small.However,the current situation around the turkish lira show that there's no impact over the cryptocurrency prices.Nobody in Turkey is buying crypto to preserve the value of his savings.Actually,I saw that people in Turkey are buying more turkish lira in order to recover it's value. 

I wouldn't say that nobody in Turkey is buying crypto. The overall size of daily trading volume in Turkish exchanges is over $10 million, and don't forget that they can exchange TRY for BTC or other crypto not only in Turkish exchanges. But I agree that probably over 99% of Turkish citizens don't buy crypto, and that is because over 99% of citizens of any country don't invest in cryptocurrencies. So, no, Turkey’s economic crisis will not trigger the next crypto bull run, neither any other country's economic crisis can do that.


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August 26, 2018, 01:02:23 PM
 #6

I do not believe that Turkey will bring the market to a better level now, and do not see a crisis that is too severe for Turkey at the moment, it is very difficult to show that bullrun will need more funds, if it is true that the Turkish people will buy crypto, so I don't think that will be too strong, most of them always ignore it, so we just wait for how many changes to the crypto market, or maybe it's to lure many people to buy and use seat belts to go upstairs.

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August 26, 2018, 01:29:13 PM
 #7

In this year, 2018, they speculated with many news that relate to the economy of some countries. Perhaps the crisis in Turkey, someone will be able to use and release news that can provoke a small leap.

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August 26, 2018, 02:00:52 PM
 #8

But I agree that probably over 99% of Turkish citizens don't buy crypto, and that is because over 99% of citizens of any country don't invest in cryptocurrencies. So, no, Turkey’s economic crisis will not trigger the next crypto bull run, neither any other country's economic crisis can do that.
I know quite some Turkish people and they have shown very little interest in crypto, despite the fact that it has gained a significant amount of media hype in the last couple of weeks.

From what they told me, they hold the majority of their wealth in EUR and use it to buy up the Liras from their family in Turkey, all to reduce the pressure on them with how the Lira keeps losing value due to the bad situation.

Converting Lira to whatever currency or asset as Turkish citizen within Turkey is heavily frowned upon. The only way for them to do so without being called an enemy of the state, is to have their family buy up their Liras.

Pretty sad situation.

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August 26, 2018, 03:33:42 PM
 #9

I do not think this can happen not only in Turkey but also in many other countries. Economic turmoil is our unpredictable problem, Turkey will have a speedy resolution of this and I think it will not affect the cryptographic market. Hopefully their economy will be more stable and towards a stronger cryptographic market in the future.
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August 26, 2018, 04:32:50 PM
 #10

You are wrong because the next world financial crisis cannot depend on so small economics like Turkish one. I know that mass media and some analysts have the similar ideas but this submission is wrong because Turkish economics is very small to have an effect on the world economy. I think that real reasons of the future crisis are laid much deeper. The world economy is overheated. Money is very cheap for loans and the stock markets are on the peaks (DOW, NASDAQ). Everything is ready for the strong correction or even the crash. The ideas of the future crisis are spreading now among various layers of people faster and faster therefore I think that the world financial crisis will happen soon but it will be initiated by either US or China but not Turkey
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August 26, 2018, 04:46:16 PM
 #11

People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency.
Turkish Lira at the moment, appears to be more volatile than Bitcoin, which is ridiculous. But agreed, gold and foreign currencies are better ways to store wealth.
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August 26, 2018, 05:04:37 PM
 #12

People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency.
People who think bitcoin is some sort of hedge against either inflation or volatility are insane.  You might as well just wipe your ass with $100 bills and flush them down the commode if you think that.

At this point I don't even think metals are all that good for hedging, since there are plenty of people who bought gold & silver in the past few years who are still underwater with their investment.  On the other hand, metals have been less volatile than crypto and would protect you against a hyperinflation-type situation.  Then again, I think if hyperinflation ever came around my local economy, anything I owned other than cash would look like a great hedge in comparison.

Turkey's economic crisis, like venezuela's, might be traced back to overprinting of fiat currency.
That's what worries me about the situation in the US.  There hasn't been a lot of inflation in the past few years, but I suspect it's coming.  The Treasury's printing presses must be smoking hot with all the new money they've been printing (and yes, I realize that money hasn't mostly been in the form of FRNs).  It feels very much like waiting for the shoe to drop.

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August 26, 2018, 05:10:34 PM
 #13

People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency.
Turkish Lira at the moment, appears to be more volatile than Bitcoin, which is ridiculous. But agreed, gold and foreign currencies are better ways to store wealth.

Different people have different needs, and all wealth-storing methods have their pros and cons.

If we compare the long term value, gold and foreign currencies are likely to be stable or change their price by only a few percents in a year. Bitcoin can and most likely will go up and down by a lot, so it's more of an investment than store of value. Some people simply can't afford to risk or wait for a bear market to pass.

However, Bitcoin can be more secure to store if done properly, because the government can seize your gold/cash/bank account easily.

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August 26, 2018, 05:32:24 PM
 #14

Hi;

As being Turkish citizen I am not buying more crypto assets. Especially I prefer to keep my fiat in € and $ currencies instead of crypto money for risk diversification. I don't think this current situation going to be trig another bull run but this crisis going to be deeper for sure.

Kind regards
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August 26, 2018, 06:06:39 PM
 #15

Hi;

As being Turkish citizen I am not buying more crypto assets. Especially I prefer to keep my fiat in € and $ currencies instead of crypto money for risk diversification. I don't think this current situation going to be trig another bull run but this crisis going to be deeper for sure.

Kind regards

I do not think personally that this situation shall fire up a bull run, my reasoning is based on the fact that the Turks won't jump into a volatile instrument while trying to escape one. I don't think there's been any upward movement since the news broke out. This type of crisis is common and often happens where there is over printing of the currency, also it's pertinent to note the Turks are buying their fiat more or migrating to usd, there's no unusual demand seen from the Turkish nation, so it's fair to say we won't see a bull run based on this crisis.

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August 26, 2018, 07:40:25 PM
 #16


The article rightly made some reasonable arguments to tend towards the keep of wealth in crypto currency but its not a cast and stone event that because Lira is witnessing some challenges the people in Turkey would by default switch into crypto currency. This is by no small means far from reality based on the following

1. The article made mention of retirees keeping their money in gold or USD anytime there is an economic crisis in Turkey but the main reasons why they do that is because they are sure of stability and value which we all know is lacking in crypto at the moment and reason why they didn't keep it in AUD, Cedis, Naira, Franc and other foreign currencies.

2. The people who keep fund in other sources they are sure of value are the old people. Now what argument would make a huge portion of them leave the source that have given them results over the periods they witnessed economic crisis to a new source that they are not sure of. Youths are the ones who would likely invest in crypto but for them, they live everyday as it comes because there is enough years ahead to save.

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August 26, 2018, 07:53:00 PM
 #17

Time will tell but I generally agree with the sentiments above. I doubt the Turks are going to use another volatile asset to run from a volatile asset. With that said economic crises in less developed economies doesn't represent how the market would react to a crisis coming from a more developed nation. Statistically the United States should face a healthy recession at some point in the next 1-4 years, if it doesn't that would be very weird. Assuming that happens we'll get our first real take on how crypto responds to economic crisis since the last crisis happened before bitcoin existed.
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August 26, 2018, 08:22:27 PM
 #18

So far there is no clear example of Bitcoin growing as the result of some economic disaster.

i was about to say..... this OP reminds me of the hype around the 2013 cyprus financial crisis. people kept hyping it for months even though there was no evidence that it was increasing demand for BTC.

if we had a crisis in EU or the US, that would be more likely to boost Bitcoin's price, but I doubt it would be enough to trigger a true bull run.

some people believe that a major/global economic crisis would somehow be good for BTC (perhaps because it would expose the weaknesses of other assets). but IMO, it really depends how risky BTC is perceived to be---as you pointed out, it definitely hasn't achieved "safe haven" status. in times of crisis, i would expect money to flow into historically stable and hard assets.

As being Turkish citizen I am not buying more crypto assets. Especially I prefer to keep my fiat in € and $ currencies instead of crypto money for risk diversification.

that illustrates the point nicely. Cheesy

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August 26, 2018, 08:24:02 PM
 #19

Judging by the experience of Venezuela, it is possible the demand for bitcoin will increase, but again it was in Venezuela, and how will it be in Turkey?Huh This is a question, but I can assume the demand and price can grow for bitcoin

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August 27, 2018, 01:17:20 PM
 #20

I'm not sure the bull run is likely to happen.

The previous price hikes were mainly determined by larger economies like Japan & South Korea where the purchasing power is way higher than what it is in Turkey.

On the other hand, I remember visiting the Bazar and seeing a shop where you could buy crypto currencies so, the Turkish people may be more familiar with crypto currencies than some would expect.


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