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Author Topic: The True Value of Auroracoin  (Read 20831 times)
pandaisftw
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March 03, 2014, 03:36:18 AM
 #1

I looked around, and for some reason no one is talking about this..

I was looking up Auroracoin, and now I know why it's marketcap is insanely inflated: There are only 98476 coins in circulation, but coinmarketcap is also including all 10,500,000 (50%) of the premine coins for a total of 10,598,476 coins.

The true value of the Auroracoin marketcap is currently $2,552,498. When the airdrop happens, expect the price to eventually plummet to less than 1% of it's current value when the airdrop is finally complete. If I were an Icelander, I'd grab my free ~$900 USD and dump it right away, the price is only going to drop as the supply inflates by %10,000 in less than a year's time.

Additionally, people don't seem to realize that currently one entity controls 50% of the total Auroracoin supply (10,500,000) while there are only ~100k coins being traded by everyone else. So when the price "jumps" 60-70%, that's actually not uncommon for low valued coins; however, because the pre-mine number is included, this jump looks magnitudes larger than it really is.

People usually scream bloody murder to premine (even as *low* as 10%!), but some guy comes along and says "give me 50% premine, I promise to distribute it, trust me" and suddenly everyone is convinced.

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March 03, 2014, 03:54:51 AM
 #2

I looked around, and for some reason no one is talking about this..

I was looking up Auroracoin, and now I know why it's marketcap is insanely inflated: There are only 98476 coins in circulation, but coinmarketcap is also including all 10,500,000 (50%) of the premine coins for a total of 10,598,476 coins.

The true value of the Auroracoin marketcap is currently $2,552,498. When the airdrop happens, expect the price to eventually plummet to less than 1% of it's current value when the airdrop is finally complete. If I were an Icelander, I'd grab my free ~$900 USD and dump it right away, the price is only going to drop as the supply inflates by %10,000 in less than a year's time.

Additionally, people don't seem to realize that currently one entity controls 50% of the total Auroracoin supply (10,500,000) while there are only ~100k coins being traded by everyone else. So when the price "jumps" 60-70%, that's actually not uncommon for low valued coins; however, because the pre-mine number is included, this jump looks magnitudes larger than it really is.

People usually scream bloody murder to premine (even as *low* as 10%!), but some guy comes along and says "give me 50% premine, I promise to distribute it, trust me" and suddenly everyone is convinced.

Shhh, quiet now. No facts please on this forum. Brain hurts. Much math Tongue

I kid. I kid.

+1
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March 03, 2014, 03:56:17 AM
 #3

I looked around, and for some reason no one is talking about this..

I was looking up Auroracoin, and now I know why it's marketcap is insanely inflated: There are only 98476 coins in circulation, but coinmarketcap is also including all 10,500,000 (50%) of the premine coins for a total of 10,598,476 coins.

The true value of the Auroracoin marketcap is currently $2,552,498. When the airdrop happens, expect the price to eventually plummet to less than 1% of it's current value when the airdrop is finally complete. If I were an Icelander, I'd grab my free ~$900 USD and dump it right away, the price is only going to drop as the supply inflates by %10,000 in less than a year's time.

Additionally, people don't seem to realize that currently one entity controls 50% of the total Auroracoin supply (10,500,000) while there are only ~100k coins being traded by everyone else. So when the price "jumps" 60-70%, that's actually not uncommon for low valued coins; however, because the pre-mine number is included, this jump looks magnitudes larger than it really is.

People usually scream bloody murder to premine (even as *low* as 10%!), but some guy comes along and says "give me 50% premine, I promise to distribute it, trust me" and suddenly everyone is convinced.

It looks even worse when you think that 99% of all currently minted coins are pre-mined.

98,476 is the total that have been mined since launch.

10,598,476 AUR is the total including pre-mine AND mined coins.

10,500,000 is the pre-mine. (99% of total existing coins is pre-mine at this time.)

That's 10,500,000 x $25.75 = $270,375,000 at it's current rate. I don't see this ending well.
pandaisftw
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March 03, 2014, 04:04:04 AM
 #4

Shhh, quiet now. No facts please on this forum. Brain hurts. Much math Tongue

I kid. I kid.

+1

 Cheesy
I don't usually make these kinds of posts, but what I outlined above immediately threw up big red flags for me (as it should for everyone else).

It looks even worse when you think that 99% of all currently minted coins are pre-mined.

98,476 is the total that have been mined since launch.

10,598,476 AUR is the total including pre-mine AND mined coins.

10,500,000 is the pre-mine. (99% of total existing coins is pre-mine at this time.)

That's 10,500,000 x $25 = $270,375,000 at it's current rate. I don't see this ending well.

Yikes, that does sound much worse, one person owns 99% of the current supply! Whether or not he actually distributes $270mil worth of coins to Icelanders, the fact is that for every $25 you pay for a single coin, $24.75 is going directly into an Icelander's pocket!

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March 03, 2014, 04:36:07 AM
 #5

That's weird you read my mind at the same exact time I post this using same words Tongue
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=446062.msg5475545#msg5475545

But ya - it's wild.

I was saying someone needs to setup a script that immediately notifies everyone if the pre-mine moves.
Or actually the dev should set that up and post it.

It would take some time to move and coins and I bet someone out there already probably is watching
with a script of some kind. So there would be some warning. Would take hours to get coins on cryptsy Tongue
at least. But the other exchanges would go pretty fast. I noticed savvy buyer are not usually leaving large
buys wall up. Just in case. But if that pre-mine fell it would be a permanuke to the coin. But they would only
get what is on the buy orders for an hour at best.

I do have a this weird feeling though that it's legit. But you can never be sure. Such is the game here.
I want it to work for the sake of innovation. That's me at least. But I am not holding the coin - i just go in
and out a few times. heh...

anderl
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March 03, 2014, 04:45:29 AM
 #6

It's a scam.  The developers create a coin without the governments consent.  Do a press release stating you will give "some" of the coins to the citizens (only the ones with internet with no explanation of how or why).  Traders pump it and developers dump the 50% premine.
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March 03, 2014, 04:49:42 AM
 #7


But you know what is official - Maza.

Mhmmm.

Think about it. Indian Casinos? American Indian Crypto? It's fantastic.
And apporved by the tribe. One of the largest in the US.

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March 03, 2014, 05:40:21 AM
 #8

+1
Revelations86
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March 03, 2014, 06:14:38 AM
 #9

I looked around, and for some reason no one is talking about this..

I was looking up Auroracoin, and now I know why it's marketcap is insanely inflated: There are only 98476 coins in circulation, but coinmarketcap is also including all 10,500,000 (50%) of the premine coins for a total of 10,598,476 coins.

The true value of the Auroracoin marketcap is currently $2,552,498. When the airdrop happens, expect the price to eventually plummet to less than 1% of it's current value when the airdrop is finally complete. If I were an Icelander, I'd grab my free ~$900 USD and dump it right away, the price is only going to drop as the supply inflates by %10,000 in less than a year's time.

Additionally, people don't seem to realize that currently one entity controls 50% of the total Auroracoin supply (10,500,000) while there are only ~100k coins being traded by everyone else. So when the price "jumps" 60-70%, that's actually not uncommon for low valued coins; however, because the pre-mine number is included, this jump looks magnitudes larger than it really is.

People usually scream bloody murder to premine (even as *low* as 10%!), but some guy comes along and says "give me 50% premine, I promise to distribute it, trust me" and suddenly everyone is convinced.

Someone is finally using common sense Smiley  The "real" low market cap indicates that it's being pumped by a select few traders that have $$$ to pump it which is the reason why it's price is so over inflated.  I'm also pretty sure that the developers are slowly dumping their share of the pre mine making tons of BTC a day.
What we have here is a game of Russian Roulette between the developers, traders and the innocent naive crypto currency enthusiast foolish enough to hold some of these coins.  There's also a very good chance that the traders pumping it up are also the developers themselves doing it for the sole purpose of setting up a very high artificial price.  Ask yourself this.. is there anything unique about this coin (feature wise) that justifies its current high price?  Absolutely not.

And yes, to your point about most miners/crypto enthusiasts screaming murder with even a 1% pre mine, does it make sense that all of sudden, the coin experiences a sudden surge in price and supposedly has wide spread support?  All this points to a manipulation/scam in progress.

If this really was also going to be distributed to the the people of Iceland, it would make national headlines there, be all over their media, official announcements by the government, nationalist groups etc... .  As a matter of fact, exchanging digital currency in Iceland is BANNED. This is a straight up scam.  This reminds me of the people that wanted to gamble and buy some Gox BTC when every single indicator was pointing to the insolvency of MT Gox.  
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March 03, 2014, 06:17:43 AM
 #10

Of course its a scam. But I rode the wave and bought in at $4 and cashed out at $30... lol. Too bad this coin will plummet very soon.

BTC: 13Yg1PwgBFTxyKpGY3393jDJeqNTFNijjH | HOBO: hXzbM3jzvYxrFts7y9zTwmLUJLyw2RYQM | WARNING: Pre-mine or IPO without escrow = SCAM
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March 03, 2014, 06:49:36 AM
 #11

The first time I read the Auroracoin thread one thing bugged me "...airdropped to the Icelandic People..."

That the central bank of Iceland has banned bitcoin trading is not going to kill bitcoin, but even if the auroracoin developers have the best of intentions, they will certainly run into opposition from the Icelandic govt
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t8zf3/bitcoin_trading_illegal_in_iceland_according_to/

I was pissed to have missed getting in on aur from the start, now I'm glad I never mined it at all

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March 03, 2014, 06:58:41 AM
 #12

Psst... klondike has the same number of total coins as aurora with no premine, already has payment processors, just had a massive block reduction, and is currently valued at one thousandth that of aurora.

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March 03, 2014, 07:04:01 AM
 #13

Of course its a scam. But I rode the wave and bought in at $4 and cashed out at $30... lol. Too bad this coin will plummet very soon.

It pains me that I missed the wave. I've been trying to buy Aurora coins for three days (when they were less than half of their current $36.29) and I fear by the time coinbase verifies my account it will be far too late.
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March 03, 2014, 07:23:31 AM
 #14

You guys are all just jealous you didn't get some when it was cheap.  If the Dev wanted to steal the coins, don't you think he would have by now?  If he steals the coins how is he gonna sell them when right now there is not enough liquidity to cash out.

All I see in this thread are a bunch of butt hurt whiny bitches.  I'm sure most of you saw Auroracoin a few weeks ago and now are just kickin' yourself for not getting in earlier.

So, lets just let the coin succeed or fail on its own merits.  If it does succeed it will be a huge plus for cryptos in general.

The purpose of SCAMCOINS is pump and dump (e.g. Wolongs Panda coin). I highly doubt that is the case here

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March 03, 2014, 07:27:11 AM
 #15

You guys are all just jealous you didn't get some when it was cheap.  If the Dev wanted to steal the coins, don't you think he would have by now?  If he steals the coins how is he gonna sell them when right now there is not enough liquidity to cash out.

All I see in this thread are a bunch of butt hurt  I'm sure most of you saw Auroracoin a few weeks ago and now are just kickin' yourself for not getting in earlier.

So, lets just let the coin succeed or fail on its own merits.  If it does succeed it will be a huge plus for cryptos in general
I think it will succeed.  I don't think it will keep a higher marketcap than litecoin, but I think it will do well and the airdrop will work.  I was in with aurora from the beginning, but I went to bed the night before it blew up with a giant buy order that never got filled, and now I'm spectating the meteoric rise instead of participating.  Ultimately I'm in this for the profit though so its time for me to find the next big thing.

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March 03, 2014, 07:28:42 AM
 #16

I saw in a thread title or some such place that the coin was going to be issued later in March so when it showed up on a list of market caps I was wondering how the heck it was purported to be worth anything at all being as how it was not yet even issued...

(Basically I wondered if the people have not gotten their coins yet how are they managing to sell them so soon... So it seemed pretty obvious it has to be some kind of a scam. People selling futures in them or selling coins they have yet to even be issued, suspicious...)

Looks like my first impression was probably correct...

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March 03, 2014, 07:29:26 AM
 #17

where do you go if you want to short AuroraCoin?
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March 03, 2014, 07:38:19 AM
 #18

Whether this turns out to be a massive scam or an epic failure, I'm sure that it will be very fun to watch from the sidelines. Smiley
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March 03, 2014, 07:44:43 AM
 #19

Wake up, man. This is just a scamcoin!
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March 03, 2014, 08:26:08 AM
 #20

all these butthurts make my day! So much whining how it is a scam, bet you wanted to buy when aur was 0.002 and oh shit now is what 30x more? Please tell us how much scam it is.
Panda was dumped after its price went 600% - who would not wanted to make 6x times their investment? Aur is 3000% percent now, so what is this dev waiting for? 5000% ? 10 000%? Please enlighten me when the scam is going to take off, because I never saw a dump coin waiting for thousands of percents.

Whiny little barbies.

In fact you should all buy now: Lets make it interesting

as of 9:31 gmt +1 the price is 0.06BTC/aur

in a week the price will double ,-)
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