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Author Topic: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?  (Read 4349 times)
Bigpiggy01
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October 29, 2011, 10:15:01 AM
 #21

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At $4.1 we would've experienced a 100% price increase from the bottom of 2.04. If that's not a reversal, nothing is. Currently it takes only around $35 000 to break 4.1. People are afraid to sell because the market is so bullish. All the signs for a real reversal are here.


If we hit 4.1 for more than just a blip we'll have pushed back into long term uptrend territory  Grin

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October 29, 2011, 04:27:23 PM
 #22

Time to bring back the best graph around

netrin
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October 29, 2011, 05:55:58 PM
 #23

Then it will start all over again (rally I, crash II, rally III, crash IV, rally V. with either III or V reaching a new peak, beyond 30... then we have crash A, rally B and crash C again, repeat...)

Wave I began at zero so our II crash carries that same fear. Wave III, even if it crosses gold parity and IV drops to silver, will not likely produce the same panic. Major wave "II", should it exist after this II then III, IV, V are over in say 2016, will appear to be stable, even if it slowly declines, much like the reserve currencies or fortune 500.

I'm curious to see if we'll actually have a final crash to a new low in the next few months or if $2.04 really was the low. Many people are expecting this "super crash" to happen but I'm starting to be a bit doubtful about that. We've had plenty of situations where people could panic sell massively, Bitcoin has steadily gone from bad to worse price-wise. But there has been none of that, the biggest Mt. Gox volume is still around 200k which is not that much really.

Technomage, after the flaming mortal decent of II, upon the Gates of the third wave of HELLL, it reads:

Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.

Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.

Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.

Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import.

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October 29, 2011, 05:57:23 PM
 #24

Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.

Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.

Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.

Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import.
Bitcoin forecasting is becoming more and more the realm of the dark arts…

netrin
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October 29, 2011, 06:03:12 PM
 #25

We talk price first and then justify it later. The price determines our expectations. We are not reacting to news, such as the encrypted wallet, new bitcoin services, court cases in France. We are only slaves of the price, slaves of each other. Herdthink.

Technomage is correct, that when we are too exhausted to care about the price, then it will slowly climb. This is what he says, but this is not what has happened. We HOPE the price will rise because we FEEL it has gone too low. I'm waiting for APATHY and DISGUST.

Not when Nagle says "I told you so" but when Gavin says "maybe Nagle was right".

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October 29, 2011, 06:05:11 PM
 #26

1st RULE: You do not talk about forecasting.
2nd RULE: You DO NOT talk about forecasting.
34th RULE: Errr....

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November 03, 2011, 06:20:39 AM
 #27

@netrin:

since i am very new to this forum and bitcoin at all, i might have a more objective view on the sentiments of the bitcoin-community..
my observation so far: despair, zynism, all-hope-is-gone is in the game already, while there seems to be a steady input of people like me, who see low prices in BTC (compared to what they used to be some months ago) and are very optimistic and enthusiastic cause of this. so basically there are the depressed people who participated in the bubble and keep suffering since and new optimistic bullish people like me.

so it seems to me, as if a critical low point has already happened.. i also think it does not really matter if prices fall any deeper, cause either they now continue slowly to climb, or fall once deep and then shoot up high and then continue to climb or stay at theire usefull level.

another posts names pretty good what i intend to say: "Bitcoin is approaching its usefull value"

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November 03, 2011, 09:19:51 AM
 #28

@netrin:

since i am very new to this forum and bitcoin at all, i might have a more objective view on the sentiments of the bitcoin-community..
my observation so far: despair, zynism, all-hope-is-gone is in the game already, while there seems to be a steady input of people like me, who see low prices in BTC (compared to what they used to be some months ago) and are very optimistic and enthusiastic cause of this. so basically there are the depressed people who participated in the bubble and keep suffering since and new optimistic bullish people like me.

so it seems to me, as if a critical low point has already happened.. i also think it does not really matter if prices fall any deeper, cause either they now continue slowly to climb, or fall once deep and then shoot up high and then continue to climb or stay at theire usefull level.

another posts names pretty good what i intend to say: "Bitcoin is approaching its usefull value"



The value of the service of the Bitcoin system is still below the costs.  What is the value of money that can be spent in just one restaurant in New York?  There are maybe a couple of special cases where Bitcoin is useful now - Silk Road and someone reported that it is the only mean of making fast money transfers to China (but who knows if he is right, and for example here in Poland we already have a system of instant money transfers between bank accounts with just a minimal fee) - but I would speculate that it's value is even lower than the value of man-hours spent on this forum alone, not even counting the hours spent on the exchanges and the effort of the software developers and what with the electricity spent on mining?  Bitcoin's useful value is way below zero now.  But don't read this too hastily - all money systems require the network effect to work - once a threshold is reached the value will shoot up quickly - that's what everyone speculates about and that's why they are willing to pay more then 0 for bitcoins now.
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November 03, 2011, 01:29:20 PM
 #29

I'm kind of feeling the same way.  I feel like there should be an upward push on pricing from miners that want to turn a profit on their rigs.

Myself, for instance, I am not liquidating my BTC I mine.  I feel that I can get more and intend only to transfer BTC out of the commodity when the price has reached equilibrium.  I would imagine the basal equilibrium would be a combination of depreciated hardware values + ongoing electrical cost with a slight margin for profitability.

Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.
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November 03, 2011, 01:32:33 PM
 #30

Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.
Using that reasoning, it might be just above ~0, if you take into account people with free electricity.

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November 03, 2011, 05:05:14 PM
 #31

What innovative graphs!

@bitclown: We experience time on a logarithmic scale, which is why our later years seem to fly by so much faster than the earlier years.  And when bitcoin values are stable, we all get bored and time seem to last forever, which your graph makes clear.

@btcurious - LOL, that's hilarious!  Trolling the trolls, always a good time.
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November 03, 2011, 08:09:07 PM
 #32

I'm kind of feeling the same way.  I feel like there should be an upward push on pricing from miners that want to turn a profit on their rigs.

Myself, for instance, I am not liquidating my BTC I mine.  I feel that I can get more and intend only to transfer BTC out of the commodity when the price has reached equilibrium.  I would imagine the basal equilibrium would be a combination of depreciated hardware values + ongoing electrical cost with a slight margin for profitability.

Of course if such an equilibrium exists, it'd be somewhere below the ideal point for those that paid full retail for their mining equipment and somewhere above ideal for those that paid the lowest dollar possible.
There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh
zby
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November 04, 2011, 07:56:00 AM
 #33

There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
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November 04, 2011, 05:50:05 PM
 #34

There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.

Miners do not have to sell. They have the choice of selling, or holding. Perhaps you could say miners holding is a pull upward?
No - holding is not pushing down - that does not equal pushing up.
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November 04, 2011, 07:43:30 PM
 #35

There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
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November 04, 2011, 07:59:05 PM
 #36

There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure.
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November 04, 2011, 08:04:08 PM
 #37

There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure.
Hard to argue with that... ok, fine.  Tongue
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November 04, 2011, 08:59:31 PM
 #38

There IS an upward push on pricing from miners.  And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs.

So...  Huh

You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins?  Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining.
No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins.

We have a relatively steady price right now.  If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower.  If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher.  BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price.  And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price.  If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices.  The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price.
This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure.

Yeah - and the question is if there are more 'not sellers' or 'not buyers'.
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November 04, 2011, 09:15:00 PM
 #39

question: what exactly is the difference between the red and the green volume lines on bitcoincharts?

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November 04, 2011, 09:31:05 PM
 #40

green: the volume if prices are up in the interval
red: prices down

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