Forecasting Altcoin "Daily Price Change" Winners and Losers

[bitinlet]

Using data from coinmarketcap, I've created a model which can be used to predict which coins to invest in (for a daily price gain).

Thus far, the model appears to work relatively well. Yet, it has glitches. I should also point out the model isn't used to forecast which coins are "best". It's simply based on factors that lead to daily price change.

I will plan to post here and see if my model is working or not.

3/5/14

Today's top 5 will be:

1. Quibit
2. Olympic coin
3. Peseta coin
4. Ultra coin
5. Riecoin


Today's biggest losers will be:

1. Union coin
2. Megacoin
3. Quark
4. Protoshares
5. Astrocoin

[PyroClasTix]

I like this. Don't edit for the sake of editing. Just keep the results no matter what. I want to see if your model works well.

[bitinlet]

I like this. Don't edit for the sake of editing. Just keep the results no matter what. I want to see if your model works well.

Cool. That's what I plan to do - no edits. I wasn't so sure I should pick just 5. I have been doing this for every coin on coinmarketcap and then ranking them. I figured I'd just choose the top 5 and bottom 5 for now.

The goal will be to see if these top 5 and bottom 5 really do well/poor.

[crypto33]

Leprocoin

[PyroClasTix]

I like this. Don't edit for the sake of editing. Just keep the results no matter what. I want to see if your model works well.

Cool. That's what I plan to do - no edits. I wasn't so sure I should pick just 5. I have been doing this for every coin on coinmarketcap and then ranking them. I figured I'd just choose the top 5 and bottom 5 for now.

The goal will be to see if these top 5 and bottom 5 really do well/poor.

That sounds about right. 5 is enough. 10 - people won't pay attention. 3 is too few. 5 is nice.

[qiwoman]

Can you also post what 24 hours schedule aka time zone you are doing because we are in pacific time so that is also relative to where we are as we are all all over the place.

[jonnysomething]

Interesting concept. I enjoy day trading as a hobby so I'll keep an eye on this for sure.

[bitinlet]

OK, so yesterday went pretty well. Below, I will include info on the price change from yesterday afternoon to yesterday around midnight (1st number) and price change from yesterday afternoon to today (2nd number)

PREDICTED WINNERS      
Riecoin   6%   -3%
Ultracoin   81%   258%
Pesetacoin   12%   -36%
OlympicCoin   26%   28%
QubitCoin   23%   -4%
AVERAGE   30%   49%
      
PREDICTED LOSERS      
Unioncoin   1%   39%
Megacoin   3%   0%
Quark         1%     0%
Protoshares   10%   -1%
Astrocoin   2%   -4%
AVERAGE   3%   7%

[chesthing]

What info did you use to predict the ultra jump if I may ask?

[cryptonewbie]

What info did you use to predict the ultra jump if I may ask?

Yeah this is probably what everyone reading the thread is thinking.

[bitinlet]

Everything is based on a regression of historical data (over a few weeks) all obtained from coinmarketcap. So, just check out the site. It's a mix of those variables (market cap, price , supply, volume). To me, this market is "possible" to forecast because it's a currency market where supply is known. In econ, we all learn that if demand or supply increase/decrease, there will be a price change. The regression coefficients tells us how much of a change we can expect in the future across all cryptocurrencies.

If we obtained more up-to-date high-frequency data, the regression would be even more robust and I believe the predictions would be better. But, that would lead to a need for super high-frequency trading, which isn't really possible on these exchanges. So, for now, the daily data should work (on net - I still believe this is by no means full proof). For now, it's just a best guess and a writing it down here is just testing the hypothesis... nothing more.

I would not gamble based on these findings until we prove it's working consistently.

[bitinlet]

Today (3/6) picks:

Winners:

Tagcoin
Takeicoin
Grain
Unioncoin
Ultracoin


Losers:
Extremecoin
Astrocoin
Auroracoin
Frozen
Velocitycoin

[cryptonewbie]

Today (3/6) picks:

Winners:

Tagcoin
Takeicoin
Grain
Unioncoin
Ultracoin


Losers:
Extremecoin
Astrocoin
Auroracoin
Frozen
Velocitycoin

Do you have percentages also?

[PyroClasTix]

Besides the new picks, what were the findings for yesterday?

[bitinlet]

Besides the new picks, what were the findings for yesterday?

They are posted (in one of my posts) above. Pretty decent so far.

Maybe I should add that to the original post.

[bitinlet]

Today (3/6) picks:

Winners:

Tagcoin
Takeicoin
Grain
Unioncoin
Ultracoin


Losers:
Extremecoin
Astrocoin
Auroracoin
Frozen
Velocitycoin

Do you have percentages also?

No, I don't. I don't think it would be wise to be too exact with this because there's so much room for error. But, I can say that the models say today Ultra and Union coins have the biggest gains.

My bet is that those who get the highest number from the model (ultra and union) will do best for the remainder of today, then overnight, will tank, while the others (grain, takea, tag) will pick up steam. I say this because that's what happened yesterday. The one's with the best model results (Qubit and Pesta) did well until midnight, then tanked. The others (ultra, olympic) were ok during the day, then did well overnight.

This is all speculation, of course.

[PyroClasTix]

Wait, what are the percentages?

Gains/loss?
Hi/lo?

[bitinlet]

Wait, what are the percentages?

Gains/loss?
Hi/lo?

The listed percentages (I believe you were referring to) are price changes. I was looking at the original price when I ran the model and it's change to the price at midnight of that day. The second percentage is the change from the original price when I ran the model to the price the following day (morning).

[PyroClasTix]

Wait, what are the percentages?

Gains/loss?
Hi/lo?

The listed percentages (I believe you were referring to) are price changes. I was looking at the original price when I ran the model and it's change to the price at midnight of that day. The second percentage is the change from the original price when I ran the model to the price the following day (morning).

So starting as 1st then ending as 2nd? Just clarifying.

[bitinlet]

Wait, what are the percentages?

Gains/loss?
Hi/lo?

The listed percentages (I believe you were referring to) are price changes. I was looking at the original price when I ran the model and it's change to the price at midnight of that day. The second percentage is the change from the original price when I ran the model to the price the following day (morning).

So starting as 1st then ending as 2nd? Just clarifying.

No. I wish I could figure out how to post an excel table in here. I used the "Price Yesterday Afternoon" for modeling. Then I checked the price twice (midnight and this morning). The percentages refer to the change from the price yesterday afternoon to each (midnight and morning).

This should explain it:

Price at Yesterday Afternoon         Price around Midnight Yesterday...Gain      Price this Morning (ET)...Gain
        Riecoin   $0.34000                          $0.36126    6%                 0.33                 -3%
   Ultracoin   $0.05300                          $0.09600    81%                 0.19                 258%
   Pesetacoin   $0.06600                          $0.07359    12%                 0.042                -36%
   OlympicCoin   $0.00018                          $0.00023    26%                 0.00023                   28%
   QubitCoin   $0.00079                          $0.00097    23%                 0.00076                  -4%
                                                   Average      30%                             Average   49%
                     
        Unioncoin   $0.06600                         $0.06690    1%                  0.092                  39%
   Megacoin   $0.31000                         $0.31778    3%                  0.31                  0%
   Quark           $0.04600                         $0.04634    1%                  0.046                   0%
   Protoshares   $6.45000                         $7.07735    10%                   6.37                  -1%
   Astrocoin   $1.38000                          $1.40490    2%                   1.33                   -4%
                                                   Average      3%                                   Average    7%