Crashing' Bitcoin Predictions

[Crashing]

http://i67.tinypic.com/15g2zav.jpg

Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

[Crashing]

If the weekly candle ends green in two days this will suggest that we'll have a red negative weekly candle after, but that the first line which is going to pass next week at around 5970 will hold. See the graphic.
But "they" love to trick us. So it might still end up going to the second support line passing at 5600.
My predictions aren't based only on the lines, but the rest are business secrets.
Any breach of the 6620 and clearly the 6700 (this would breach the moving average passing about 6660) will ruin this plan and force a prudent exit even if in the end this probably is going to go anyway to 5600.
Trying to see a glimpse of bitcoin's future is always an exercise on probabilities, we won't ever have certainty. Anyone saying the contrary is a joke.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

[Crashing]

Other posts from me which might be of some interest:

Bitcoin price ins't unpredictable. Bitcoin follow certain patterns shown by past market events. Of course these patterns aren't clear most of the time. So you will get it wrong many times.
But if you only go to the market when you have a plan AND an exit plan and you jump out when your plan is ruined, you will make money. Because there will be many times when things will go according to the plan.

Bitcoin in the past followed a clear rule: if it makes a new high it will triple or quadruple the price, so it can go to 60,000 or 80,000 usd. A very secure moment to buy is always when bitcoin made a new all time high, for crazy that it may sound. Of course, it's not the ideal moment, you should enter before.
But I doubt bitcoin will make a new high or even go above 10,000 during the firth 6 months of 2019.
As I just wrote on another post: "On the past bitcoin market never reacted fast to any crash like this one. It went to the bottom and stayed there for months before beginning another uptrend.".
But I might be wrong. Sometimes the past isn't a mirror of the future. But it's the only objective thing we have to try to see a glimpse of the future.
Of course I don't know if bitcoin will ever make a new high again. That depends on things that now are unpredictable since it would only happen probably on 2020.


The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

[Crashing]

There are holders who hate bearish people like currently I am. Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price. This is a very stupid thing to think. The market is huge and is moved by thousands of traders. Any post from anyone on bitcointalk won't ever influence the price.
Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.

[YuginKadoya]

There are holders who hate bearish people like currently I am. Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price. This is a very stupid thing to think. The market is huge and is moved by thousands of traders. Any post from anyone on bitcointalk won't ever influence the price.
Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.

But we can not take the fact that there are people doing this kind of things, We can sure post anything we like in the forum, Or even the slightest intention that we like we can surely do, But like you have said a single FUD won't really affect the price all so sudden But if the poster is an influencer or a well-known person just like when Satoshi is still posting in the forum it will make a big difference, But there are facts that a FUD can really help in decreasing the price or changing the feelings of certain people it will surely depend on whose posting it, And I think we have a ranking base kind of racism in the forum that can sure affect the feeling of most people here, Well I am saying there is a fact that if a Hero or Legendary rank member would post FUD most would have an eyes on it and may cause a lot of newbies and average rank to believe, well I am saying that people may sure base on the rank and would not research and see the fact if that persons information is legit or not.

[BrewMaster]

all i see is paradox everywhere in your comments!
you say bitcoin isn't unpredictable then everything else you said is saying it is unpredictable but at the same time you are trying to predict it.
then you go on with saying the past is not the "mirror" and it doesn't have to be repeated but at the same time your arguments are based on the past!
and more...

There are holders who hate bearish people

another paradox
a long term investor commonly known as a hodler does not care about bearish or bullish trend and those people in it!

Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price.

it is their goal, nobody said they succeed!
and there is nothing wrong with posting "negative things" about bitcoin. but "negative things" is not the same as FUD

[exstasie]

The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

I learned to stop fighting the trend years ago. And since we haven't broken out of the succession of lower highs and lower lows yet, I'd agree that we haven't technically broken the downtrend.

But you'd have to agree, there's no bear momentum anymore. We've gone sideways for months now. Late shorts have got to be sweating just as much as bagholding bulls. There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range.

[suzanne5223]

[snip]

Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

I agree with you when you said you don't recommend the prediction because the market price movement is not certain. However, I also presume some dip in price before the end of this year but I don't actually the price range but I'm certain it will be deeper than the previous dump in price.

[senin]

I know that bitcoin behavior is really unpredictable. Therefore, references to these technical charts and tables do not matter much. It is unlikely that bitcoin will continue to drop in price so low, I do not believe in it. In many respects the behavior of bitcoin in the last months of this year will depend. We hope that, like in every year, bitcoin in the last months of the year will increase significantly in price. Although we do not expect a sharp increase for the time being. If bitcoin in the last months of this year will not significantly increase in price, this will greatly disappoint investors.

[pooya87]

no, you can not come up with any predictions at this point. filling it with ifs and butts and mights is not going to change that. you are making a guess not a prediction. at this point we are at the bottom for a long time, there is no trend, neither bear nor bull because there haven't been any drops or rises for a couple of months now and drawing lines on the chart is not going to change that!
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.

[Baofeng]

no, you can not come up with any predictions at this point. filling it with ifs and butts and mights is not going to change that. you are making a guess not a prediction. at this point we are at the bottom for a long time, there is no trend, neither bear nor bull because there haven't been any drops or rises for a couple of months now and drawing lines on the chart is not going to change that!
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.

Exactly, the same pattern we have seen prior  to the rush at $7300, trading sideways with no clear direction (bullish/bearish), but suddenly we went on another break out run to $7300 but the Goldman&Sachs plus the wallet connected to Mt. Gox or Silk Road went on a move pulling the price to $6300-$6500 for the nth time. So we need to wait again as to who are going to win this battle bears to pull the price or the bulls to make the price grow. I'm sure that day traders are very happy with this rampant price fluctuations, easy for they to profit 1%-5% daily. As for those who are waiting, we can't blame them as most of them got burned already.

[Crashing]

all i see is paradox everywhere in your comments!
you say bitcoin isn't unpredictable then everything else you said is saying it is unpredictable but at the same time you are trying to predict it.
then you go on with saying the past is not the "mirror" and it doesn't have to be repeated but at the same time your arguments are based on the past!
and more...

If you read my posts with some more attention they would be clear.
Bitcoin's prices are unpredictable on the long-run, because they can be determined by unpredictable events, like political decisions, economic demand, technological improvement or consensus.
But they are predictable on a certain measure on the short-term (one week, one month).
The past can only give us some clues about the future, but without certainty. That's why I wrote that bitcoin prices can be predictable on a certain measure. It's because of this that I also get them wrong.

[Crashing]

The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

I learned to stop fighting the trend years ago. And since we haven't broken out of the succession of lower highs and lower lows yet, I'd agree that we haven't technically broken the downtrend.

But you'd have to agree, there's no bear momentum anymore. We've gone sideways for months now. Late shorts have got to be sweating just as much as bagholding bulls. There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range.

We are in agreement about the value of the trend. But I still think we are on a bearish trend. We are making lower highs and I'm still standing behind my prediction: about 5960 on the next week. They can even trick us and make a new lower low, even if I'm not betting on it. I'm expecting a nice bounce around 5960.

[Crashing]

no, you can not come up with any predictions at this point. filling it with ifs and butts and mights is not going to change that. you are making a guess not a prediction. at this point we are at the bottom for a long time, there is no trend, neither bear nor bull because there haven't been any drops or rises for a couple of months now and drawing lines on the chart is not going to change that!
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.

Day traders can only earn profits if they can make correct predictions. Flipping a coin or just guessing without support on graphics is a recipe for disaster. But I will always be humble when trading bitcoin and add a might. It's about probabilities and not certainties.

[Crashing]

[snip]

Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

I agree with you when you said you don't recommend the prediction because the market price movement is not certain. However, I also presume some dip in price before the end of this year but I don't actually the price range but I'm certain it will be deeper than the previous dump in price.

Remember the top at about 1140 on 2013? We had a bear market of more than 2 years next, then a painful recovery during 2017, before we were able to make a new higher high. In between we saw real blood on the market with panic deeps. I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. But as the time frame gets longer, predictions are even less certain.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

[reactorjuno]

I must confess I am quite surprised that the support around $5800 has been that strong. Like you I was expecting the price to go below that yesterday or today... That's why Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general are still very hard to predict...
Traditional financial markets (stocks) are a totally different world from my humble experience. It is necessary to analyze the results of the company + consider complex financial and economic notions.

From my experience (I have been into stock markets since 2011) I prefer the crypto market: volatility / no financial analysis, only technical analysis.

[hase0278]

There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range.

The only question is when will we see the sideway range break? I do hope that this uneventful market would not last that long. Uneventful market such as this is not that profitable at all.

I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. But as the time frame gets longer, predictions are even less certain.

With the way things are going now, I am sure that this bear market would not that long because even if it is uneventful, there are a lot of upcoming events that might set a new momentum for a bullish market.

[aso118]

There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...

[wuvdoll]

There are holders who hate bearish people like currently I am. Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price. This is a very stupid thing to think. The market is huge and is moved by thousands of traders. Any post from anyone on bitcointalk won't ever influence the price.
Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.

Holders who hate bearish people ? You think real holders who understand the technology, the future and the benefit and understand the risk with volatility will be worried about where the market wants to drive to? A serious holder will care less and even buy the dips if need be.

Nevertheless, the OP is just stating his own opinion. That does not mean his opinion will have to count in the long run, as future is unpredictable, but whichever way, you should also understand that the market sure have more room to go lower, and how you view that as an opportunity or problem is where the problem is.

[haroldtee]

There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...

If you do not have faith in TA, then you will be lost as a trader, because without it you are definitely not going to be able to make anything out of it. I have been using TA for a long time, and even in stocks and Forex market, they fail sometimes, but really, TA are not meant to give you certainty that the market is going in a particular direction, but they are just there to guide into a strategy you can use to play with the market fluctuations, which mean you will beating yourself up as a trader, if you are expecting 100% successful trades every time. If it is that way, there won't be need for stop loss.