IMO second option. Almost all coins are now at the edge of profitability/lossability. Especially when you are mining with pools.
The point is if the miner would be profitable then it's owner wouldn't lease it (most probably ) or would lease it at higher price. Your profit then depends on whether you'll find a better (more profitable) coin to mine.
This, exactly this. Why would they be renting the miner out if they made a profit mining BTC / Altcoins. if you use a mining calculator, i can guarantee you're going to be paying more than your making in the renting period.