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Poll
Question: How many people will pick this option?
0-1%
2-20%
21-35%
36-50%
51-99%
100%

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Author Topic: Self-referential poll  (Read 3330 times)
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 02:37:15 PM
 #1

Please vote what you think is correct, before reading the rest of the posts.

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teukon
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October 30, 2011, 02:56:29 PM
 #2

Please vote what you think is correct, before reading the rest of the posts.

On this it would be useful if the first few posts here didn't give any opinions on specific poll options.  I wonder if I can resist

...
...
...

Whew, made it. Smiley
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 03:03:13 PM
 #3

Here, I'll help resisting.

There have been votes.

teukon
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October 30, 2011, 03:42:46 PM
 #4

There have been votes.

Hmm... Does "There have been votes" give users information on the poll?  Presumably if there had not been any votes that could imply that people are thinking very carefully about the poll.

Perhaps it's only fair to give cryptic information such as whether or not any of the options is currently correct (not mentioning specific options of course).
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 03:45:27 PM
 #5

I don't think "there have been votes" gives info, since I try to vote for the option which I think will be correct in the long-term. If you just want your vote to be correct right now, then of course it gives info. The opposite of the info "there have been no votes", which would imply you should vote 100% if you want it correct right now.

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October 30, 2011, 04:48:12 PM
 #6

Here's a fun article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superrationality

I assumed most of you would employ similar strategies to my own.
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 04:54:10 PM
 #7

Here's a fun article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superrationality

I assumed most of you would employ similar strategies to my own.
Thanks, that was a good read!
I wouldn't assume everyone here is superrational though Roll Eyes

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October 30, 2011, 05:15:51 PM
 #8

Quote from: Spoiler
I wouldn't assume everyone here is superrational though
That's what I did and I got it wrong Undecided.
teukon
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October 30, 2011, 05:18:13 PM
 #9

Here's a fun article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superrationality

I assumed most of you would employ similar strategies to my own.
Thanks, that was a good read!
I wouldn't assume everyone here is superrational though Roll Eyes

Damn, there goes my stategy.
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October 30, 2011, 05:37:07 PM
 #10

And no one picked 1%  Embarrassed

payb.tc
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October 30, 2011, 10:35:37 PM
 #11

i didn't think about it for too long but i figured since there are 6 options, then the average would be 16% so 2-20% would be the one to choose.

however over time, more people would probably also realise this and vote on lower numbers, bringing them higher in comparison to options 4, 5, 6.

so i bumped it up a notch and chose 21-35%  ...it's currently on 16.7% but i expect that one might grow to fit correctly over time.
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 10:47:32 PM
 #12

I've seen/done more of these polls over time, and usually the correct answer is indeed around the 25% range. I wanted to make it a bit more interesting, that's why I didn't make the ranges the same size; the high percentage is obviously much higher.
I find it funny there's always people choosing 100%. It's not like everyone is going to do that…

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October 30, 2011, 11:15:25 PM
 #13

Upon reading the supplied Wiki link, then reading via other links, I think I came across a great example of semantic loopholes: htttp://www.cs.virginia.edu/~evans/cs655/readings/purity.html
I.Goldstein
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October 30, 2011, 11:20:19 PM
 #14

The most logical option will be the second to last one in most cases.
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 11:21:42 PM
 #15

The most logical option will be the second to last one in most cases.
Why would that be the most logical? I can think of 2 interpretations of "most logical", and they both give a different option than the second to last one.

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October 30, 2011, 11:35:06 PM
 #16

As the amount of voters increase, the more likely the chance a large majority of people choose one poll option. People's perceptions rarely differ and tend to correlate to one degree. The larger the sample, the more potent the accuracy. There can only be one, if you will. This will inevitably eliminate any possible correctness of most poll options and leave only 51%-99% as the only possibly correct option.
BTCurious
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October 30, 2011, 11:39:02 PM
 #17

As the amount of voters increase, the more likely the chance a large majority of people choose one poll option.
That's not true. You cannot see the results before you voted, and you cannot change your vote afterwards. So it would be: As the amount of voters increases, the statistical deviation will get smaller, and it will get closer to its ultimate distribution.

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October 30, 2011, 11:41:29 PM
 #18

As the amount of voters increase, the more likely the chance a large majority of people choose one poll option.
That's not true. You cannot see the results before you voted, and you cannot change your vote afterwards. So it would be: As the amount of voters increases, the statistical deviation will get smaller, and it will get closer to its ultimate distribution.
It is true. You have only misunderstood me. What I mean is the majority of people will stick to one common answer. People tend not to be snowflakes when it comes to this stuff.

In any case, the poll will either be totally incorrect or correct in terms of one answer. Distribution being even is not likely.
Phinnaeus Gage
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October 30, 2011, 11:42:31 PM
 #19

As the amount of voters increase, the more likely the chance a large majority of people choose one poll option.
That's not true. You cannot see the results before you voted, and you cannot change your vote afterwards. So it would be: As the amount of voters increases, the statistical deviation will get smaller, and it will get closer to its ultimate distribution.

...based on rational voters, otherwise all bets are off.


I.Goldstein
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October 30, 2011, 11:43:15 PM
 #20

As the amount of voters increase, the more likely the chance a large majority of people choose one poll option.
That's not true. You cannot see the results before you voted, and you cannot change your vote afterwards. So it would be: As the amount of voters increases, the statistical deviation will get smaller, and it will get closer to its ultimate distribution.

...based on rational voters, otherwise all bets are off.

http://jamin.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/rational-emotial-service1.jpg

Mr. Gage gets it. I salute you.
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