2018 USA Mid Terms! Red or Blue Waves?!?

[Flying Hellfish]

Well with all the political pundits among us and the Mid Terms rapidly approaching I am curious how everyone see the House and Senate races panning out.

It looks to me like the Senate will stay Red and they might just pick up a couple seats giving them some breathing room!  Looks like Hietkamp is underwater double digits so the red state might get that seat back (and shes a no on Kavanaugh which probably doesn't help her).  Manchin is another tight race where he has a small lead but his vote on the Kavanaugh nom might sway voters one way or the other.

I haven't been watching to many other senate races so feel free to tell us about any more!

The early polls had a blue house but the Kavanaugh show seems to have energized the republican base.  Will the base come down if Kavanaugh gets confirmed?  Will the base get fired up if Kavanaugh gets voted down?  The same question can be asked of the Dem base.  Do they get energized if Kavanaugh gets confirmed.  Do they cool off if he gets voted down or does Trumps antics with the Kavanaugh Circus give the dems enough energy regardless of the outcome on Kavanaugh?

It's pretty damn rare for a Presidents party to pick up house seats in the mid term, which voters are motivated enough pre and post Kavanaugh confirmation vote!

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[bluefirecorp_]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018#Most_recent_election_predictions

/thread

I hope it's more blue. We need some accountability for the executive branch.

[Spendulus]

....
It's pretty damn rare for a Presidents party to pick up house seats in the mid term....

But the Repubs and the Dems were doing all they could to down Trump, and they failed because the people voted him in.

You have to consider THEM.

[Quickseller]

As it stands now, it looks like Republicans will flip a few seats, likely 2-3 seats in the senate and might get one seat flipped blue that is of a retiring senator.

The Kanavaugh witch-hunt appears to have riled up republicans with GOP enthusiasm in the midterms now virtually matching that of Democrats. I believe Democrats probably overplayed their hand and the witch-hunt will backfire on them. This is especially true if it is made public that FBI investigations are opened into one or more of many actors who likely broke laws.

The generic ballot for congress went from +14 for democrats to +7 (same side), which indicates that the control of Congress is a tossup. (It has been said that Democrats need +4 on the generic ballot to have control of Congress due to gerrymandering).

Fundraising for the GOP is way up over the past few weeks.

[theymos]

My desired result is for the Democrats to win the house by 1 seat or for there to be a dead tie, and for the Republicans to keep the Senate by as much as possible. That should ensure that nothing gets done, which is the best thing for the government to do. (I will get a certain sense of satisfaction if the Republicans win overwhelmingly, since I really dislike the Democrats, but the Republicans will also do plenty of harm if given the opportunity.)

My predicted result is that the Republicans will only barely retain the Senate and will lose the House by a few dozen seats. I think that both sides will be disappointed at their performance, but it will be a moderate blue wave. I sense that most people are only slightly enthusiastic about the economy, and are worried about future tariffs and especially the future of healthcare.

If either side wins big, there will be accusations of foreign interference. (And indeed, if any foreign power if capable of interfering with the election, now would be a great time, since it'd create maximal chaos.)

[TECSHARE]

The Democrat party will not quit until they are discredited for 2 generations. When you keep doubling down and losing, eventually the payment comes due, and the Democrats have built up quite a debt.

[Flying Hellfish]

My predicted result is that the Republicans will only barely retain the Senate and will lose the House by a few dozen seats. I think that both sides will be disappointed at their performance, but it will be a moderate blue wave. I sense that most people are only slightly enthusiastic about the economy, and are worried about future tariffs and especially the future of healthcare.

I do think the economy is being overshadowed by so many other factors ATM and doesn't really appear to be a major issue for voters. 

Now that we all but know the Kavanaugh outcome I am really curious if it will affect the MT's and how.  Historically the Thomas nomination would probably be the most similar case to look at.  Granted there aren't exact parallels but nothing ever is. 

Thomas's vote was in 91 and the next elections weren't till 92 more than a year later.  That gave a lot of women the time to get into the senate race.  It also gave time for women to "stew" over the decision and time for investigative journalist to dig into the matter further.  None of which is happening before this MT. 

Another big difference is the republican base, the Trump party is a far cry from the HW Bush party and Trump can rile up his base better than anyone.

I've seen a number of Pundits talking about the loser of the Kavanaugh fight will probably be the overall winner in the MT's and it may even play big into 2020.

The last and I think biggest difference between Thomas and Kavanaugh drama's is not in the facts or timing but the simple existence of social media.  In 91/92 it wasn't as simple as it is now for groups to connect, organize and spread information (good or bad!).  Trump is a master of social media and he just might be able to squash the enthusiasm of the left single handily because lets be honest the left isn't always the best organized!!

I think the left was already a little energized just from Trump and now I hope they will get more energized from Kavanaugh.

That being said, polls and history are indicating the house has a good chance of going blue but the senate I think might have just gotten a lot more interesting based on the right winning the Kavanaugh fight.  It's also fair to say the polls are almost entirely useless especially recently!!

[Spendulus]

....
If either side wins big, there will be accusations of foreign interference. (And indeed, if any foreign power if capable of interfering with the election, now would be a great time, since it'd create maximal chaos.)

When Obama ran for POTUS he received 92M in undocumented foreign contributions, but nobody investigated that or even seemed to care.

I think the Democratic Party is heavily influenced by foreign interests, down to and including it's basic platform. If you think about it, some of the matters that they seem "anti-American" on, that explains it.

[bluefirecorp_]

....
If either side wins big, there will be accusations of foreign interference. (And indeed, if any foreign power if capable of interfering with the election, now would be a great time, since it'd create maximal chaos.)

When Obama ran for POTUS he received 92M in undocumented foreign contributions, but nobody investigated that or even seemed to care.

I think the Democratic Party is heavily influenced by foreign interests, down to and including it's basic platform. If you think about it, some of the matters that they seem "anti-American" on, that explains it.

Fuck off with your troll or present actual evidence.

https://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.php?cycle=2008&cid=N00009638

https://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.php?cycle=2012&cid=N00009638

---

Unlike the corrupt, crooked, GOP, Obama didn't receive money from foreign entities.

Hell, the Jill Stein's more dirty than Obama.

My desired result is for the Democrats to win the house by 1 seat or for there to be a dead tie, and for the Republicans to keep the Senate by as much as possible. That should ensure that nothing gets done, which is the best thing for the government to do. (I will get a certain sense of satisfaction if the Republicans win overwhelmingly, since I really dislike the Democrats, but the Republicans will also do plenty of harm if given the opportunity.)

My predicted result is that the Republicans will only barely retain the Senate and will lose the House by a few dozen seats. I think that both sides will be disappointed at their performance, but it will be a moderate blue wave. I sense that most people are only slightly enthusiastic about the economy, and are worried about future tariffs and especially the future of healthcare.

If either side wins big, there will be accusations of foreign interference. (And indeed, if any foreign power if capable of interfering with the election, now would be a great time, since it'd create maximal chaos.)

Gridlock + GOP looting coffers = dead economy or fascist rising. It's almost like a foreign entity wants gridlock.

[Flying Hellfish]

Trump lies at republican rally by making up bogus name of bill...  Republicans eat this shit up are they not able to use something like google?

I can't ever remember a time when a President was so actively trying to create a division in his people.  What's also curious is that it is working extremely well and the Dems have not figured out a counter to it.

The gloating over the Kavanaugh victory while it appears to play really well with the GOP base show's very little class, generally the old saying of you should act like this isn't your first time in the end zone and you've been there many times before, shows some class... There is a big difference between celebrating and gloating!

I think the GOP base is fired right up over the SC win, and are hoping RBG "retires" and Trump will get them 6-3 the next holy grail!

It looks like a pretty easy thing for the Republicans to keep the senate and hell at this point I wouldn't even be surprised if the GOP kept the house as well.  

I think the house and senate will stay Republican at this point.  

[yoseph]

....
It's pretty damn rare for a Presidents party to pick up house seats in the mid term....

But the Repubs and the Dems were doing all they could to down Trump, and they failed because the people voted him in.

You have to consider THEM.

The Republicans tried all that they could so as to stop Trump from becoming the Republican nominee but he got past that to win the presidency because his message was to the people directly and not to the elites. With a great economy and Peace, it seems that the Republicans are being to be in control of both houses come the midterm election.

[Spendulus]

Trump lies at republican rally by making up bogus name of bill...  Republicans eat this shit up are they not able to use something like google?
....

"lies about the name of a bill" ??

I've never been under the impression that when Trump talks he is trying to get every little thing technically right. He'll exaggerate, make up pet phrases for stuff, all kinds of things. And he'll make mistakes. This is no big deal but is it lying? Gee...

Would not surprise me if the goose steppers take the House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVTQRRnpMgc

[InvoKing]

I think the house and senate will stay Republican at this point.  

Donkeys will crush da house while elephants will break da senate. Well this isn't very important since the most important thing ever is to keep seeing the big kid making America great again like it was before 1492. Good ol' days

[squatz1]

I can't ever remember a time when a President was so actively trying to create a division in his people.  What's also curious is that it is working extremely well and the Dems have not figured out a counter to it.

You must've missed the entire Presidency of Barrack Obama then..... Hehe.

The gloating over the Kavanaugh victory while it appears to play really well with the GOP base show's very little class

But attempting to ruin a man over a 35 year old sexual assault allegation is classful, right right.... We're all just happy that we were finally able to beat the whole sexual assault thing, get a conservative justice on the court, and do it all before midterms while the Democrats were trying to push it until after midterms.

I think the GOP base is fired right up over the SC win, and are hoping RBG "retires" and Trump will get them 6-3 the next holy grail!

It looks like a pretty easy thing for the Republicans to keep the senate and hell at this point I wouldn't even be surprised if the GOP kept the house as well. 

I think the house and senate will stay Republican at this point.  Cool

Ah, something we agree on. You're still a commie bastard btw.

[suchmoon]

Voter turnout will decide the outcome. Democrats are typically absent at midterms - think of your typical lazy millennial yapping about democracy but "too busy" to exercise said democracy once every two years vs a retiree with nothing better to do.

This is something that most of the polls are very bad at predicting, even ones of "likely voters". Democrats could be +20 and still lose it if e.g. the weather is too cold on November 6, or they could be under water and still come out ahead like e.g. in Alabama last year.

The Democrat party will not quit until they are discredited for 2 generations. When you keep doubling down and losing, eventually the payment comes due, and the Democrats have built up quite a debt.

Not really. Demographic trends increasingly favor Democrats. Republicans can hold on for a while due to gerrymandering and due to the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but it's just a matter of time until they start losing big or have to change their policies to appeal to more than ~40% of the population.

[TECSHARE]

Voter turnout will decide the outcome. Democrats are typically absent at midterms - think of your typical lazy millennial yapping about democracy but "too busy" to exercise said democracy once every two years vs a retiree with nothing better to do.

This is something that most of the polls are very bad at predicting, even ones of "likely voters". Democrats could be +20 and still lose it if e.g. the weather is too cold on November 6, or they could be under water and still come out ahead like e.g. in Alabama last year.

The Democrat party will not quit until they are discredited for 2 generations. When you keep doubling down and losing, eventually the payment comes due, and the Democrats have built up quite a debt.

Not really. Demographic trends increasingly favor Democrats. Republicans can hold on for a while due to gerrymandering and due to the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but it's just a matter of time until they start losing big or have to change their policies to appeal to more than ~40% of the population.

Yet those "demographics" that used to be hard core Democrat are fleeing to the Republican side in masses. You have some nerve talking about gerrymandering when virtually every type of voter fraud is evident from the Democratic party, especially in areas they control. Please do question this I would love to give you MUCH more detail on the subject.

They are already appealing to the majority of the population, the establishment, the media, and the left in general just have too much at stake to admit it publicly. Hillary was a sure thing too, remember?

[suchmoon]

Yet those "demographics" that used to be hard core Democrat are fleeing to the Republican side in masses. You have some nerve talking about gerrymandering when virtually every type of voter fraud is evident from the Democratic party, especially in areas they control. Please do question this I would love to give you MUCH more detail on the subject.

They are already appealing to the majority of the population, the establishment, the media, and the left in general just have too much at stake to admit it publicly. Hillary was a sure thing too, remember?

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with voter fraud. It helps one political party to win more districts than it would in a more representative layout and on the current congressional map it overwhelmingly favors Republicans. Pennsylvania map is a good example: a ~ 50/50 state but Republicans won 12 of 18 House seats in the last election. That map has been redrawn and will likely cause Republicans to lose 2 or 3 seats this fall. North Carolina is nearly 50/50 as well and Republicans won 10 of 13 House seats. That map is still in effect for midterms but has been ruled unconstitutional so may cause Republicans to lose another 2 or 3 seats in 2020.

Hillary is not running in the midterms as far as I know. You might want to stay on topic - this board has a bona fide nazi for a moderator  

[TECSHARE]

Yet those "demographics" that used to be hard core Democrat are fleeing to the Republican side in masses. You have some nerve talking about gerrymandering when virtually every type of voter fraud is evident from the Democratic party, especially in areas they control. Please do question this I would love to give you MUCH more detail on the subject.

They are already appealing to the majority of the population, the establishment, the media, and the left in general just have too much at stake to admit it publicly. Hillary was a sure thing too, remember?

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with voter fraud. It helps one political party to win more districts than it would in a more representative layout and on the current congressional map it overwhelmingly favors Republicans. Pennsylvania map is a good example: a ~ 50/50 state but Republicans won 12 of 18 House seats in the last election. That map has been redrawn and will likely cause Republicans to lose 2 or 3 seats this fall. North Carolina is nearly 50/50 as well and Republicans won 10 of 13 House seats. That map is still in effect for midterms but has been ruled unconstitutional so may cause Republicans to lose another 2 or 3 seats in 2020.

Hillary is not running in the midterms as far as I know. You might want to stay on topic - this board has a bona fide nazi for a moderator  

Yes, I am well aware of what gerrymandering is, thank you, the point being while somewhat detestable behavior, it at least still in a legal grey area. Furthermore you can bet your ass Democrats do it where they can manage as well.

Then on the other hand you have systemic voter fraud within the DNC, also documented disenfranchisement of their own party's true vote to try to push their establishment candidate, and they lost. All this is very much on topic, you just dislike the implications. You cry about a zit on the ass of the Republican party when the Democrats have a brain tumor big enough to push its eye out of the socket. This Kabuki theater of crybullying is failing, and unfortunately that is all that is left for them.

[OgNasty]

Speaking strictly from a finance perspective, it's nice when there's a Republican-controlled Congress.

Stovall of S&P Capital IQ also took a look at the how the stock market does depending upon who controls Congress.
When Stovall sliced and diced the data that way since World War II, the best performance was when the nation had a Republican president with a Republican-controlled Congress.

Maybe you could add a poll to this thread?

[Spendulus]

...Republicans can hold on for a while due to gerrymandering and due to the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but it's just a matter of time until they start losing big or have to change their policies to appeal to more than ~40% of the population.

The Democrats change their policies to appeal to fewer and fewer, let's see how that works out.