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Author Topic: If the bull market recur periodically, how long dose a cycle take?  (Read 493 times)
Blocktopian88 (OP)
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October 21, 2018, 05:11:04 PM
 #1

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..
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October 21, 2018, 05:45:13 PM
 #2

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

Bitcoin is still too young to find well enough a pattern.

From what I see on the graphs (if you go to the link, set it to 3 days period) I think that the other significant bull run was the MtGox one, with about 1.5-2 years (2014, 2105) of bad and worse prices, then more than one year of slow recovery (2016 and part of 2017) to see a 8-9 months bubble (Apr-Dec 2017)

However, get the graphs and look for yourself...

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HODL2090
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October 21, 2018, 05:50:07 PM
 #3

There is no rhythmic or repeative pattern to the flow of bitcoin's value. And how long a rise or a fall would last. The bulk market does not recur periodically.
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October 21, 2018, 07:22:47 PM
 #4

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

We haven't yet seen any apparent pattern of the bull market which is repetitive in nature. Bitcoin market is only 10 years old and for now we have seen only growth in majority of the times. I want to keep the bull market of 2017 out of the equation because that was a hype game that worked big time! That was not an actual bull run based on strong ground, rather it was based on market hype! otherwise, we didn't see much downslide in bitcoin market if we compare since the initial phase of bitcoin.

Personally I am very happy with the way bitcoin market is functioning now. Price stability will help us to increase adoption rate for bitcoin. High volatility was always a challenge for the merchants to accept bitcoin as a payment method. If we see the stable market price, probably a lot more merchant and policy maker will be interested to adopt it for better!


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October 21, 2018, 08:37:59 PM
 #5

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

based on history, it could be months or years before the bull market resumes. it's also possible that the bull supercycle is over and that we won't see a resurgence like 2017 again.

bitcoin has only existed since 2009---anyone who gives you a specific answer doesn't understand statistics. it could look like the 2014-15 bear market. it could be much shorter. it could be much longer. for all we know, we're about to enter a 10-year bear market. Wink

i always laugh when people say "there's no way it could be like 2014! cuz mt gox! blah bah blah!" they couldn't begin to prove what they're saying.

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October 21, 2018, 10:05:53 PM
 #6

It is possible that we will see another bull run but market is evolving and possibly at the next bull run we will new , quality companies evolve not like before because investors wont trow money at anything that has ICO in them this time, they will think twice.

If we compare crypto time scale to dot com  bubble time scale, we are 3-6 months way from The start.

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October 21, 2018, 10:14:59 PM
 #7

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

If a bull market like what happened in 2017 is what we are hoping, i believe we would have it at least in 2020. 2017 is very bullish because many projects was started and what i believe will happen by 2020 is that many of this projects will become useful as a service that they were intended to not just as a way of making profits. It will be the time when mass adoption will take place and people will buy tokens not for it to trade but for it to be used in the way it was intended.
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October 21, 2018, 10:29:14 PM
 #8

Yeah its longer now and still unsure how long that cycle would be. But let's just take the example of last year, the whole 2017 was in a bull run if you'll analyze the chart.

And from half December up to the end seems to be the quickest bull and it only stayed for few weeks. Are you now learning from the past that you should take profit and remove the greediness inside you?

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October 21, 2018, 10:30:52 PM
 #9

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

I'm not an expert in this field, but in my opinion, should the bull run of 2017 repeat itself again, then we can draw an inference that periodically, the cycle of a bull run will take 9-12 months. Again, I feel the market is yet very young to have established a pattern at this stage as it still has a long way to go.

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October 21, 2018, 10:36:22 PM
 #10

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..
Base on the year 2017 market price movement the bull run happened. The bull run usually take at least a year when it recur but with dump in price that last long in the crypto market this days there's possibility the bull run cycle to increase than before after the market gain it total strengthen.

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October 21, 2018, 10:41:31 PM
 #11

There are too many variables to predict how long the cycle will last. People have different ideas about it like the one that the bear market seems to be getting longer. At least id was getting longer when we compare previous bear markets and 2014-15, but it doesn't mean anything. 2015 formed a continuation after a slight recovery in 2014 because we got Chinese bans and Chinese FUD that prolonged it. This is a great example of the influence that the media and the fundamentals have on the market.

At the moment we are in what looks like a bearish triangle with a falling volume, which indicates an imminent breakout. TA will tell you that such triangles usually break to the downside, but usually doesn't mean always. Since we're in a bear market bearsh news will mean that we'll go down from here, no news will probably have the same result, but bullish news can take us up. We haven't had a correction of this downtrend for almost 2 months and we are due for one.

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October 21, 2018, 10:46:43 PM
 #12

Many traders calculate this on the basis of technical analysis, which unfortunately does not work on the cryptocurrency market. However, if we consider the technical analysis, we can expect further price drops and about 2 years until the next ATH. In my opinion, this period will be much shorter and next ATH we will be able to observe next year. But, it is only my private opinion.

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October 21, 2018, 11:30:59 PM
 #13

The market is too young for a periodic pattern to be drawn. TA won't even come close into predicting near an actual time-frame since the market reacts spontaneously, though we might get some form of approximation out of the past trends. There are also many factors affecting the run towards another ATH knowing that a lot of people are now involved in the market and it's not limited to enthusiasts and a few businessmen at all, which makes it even harder to come to a close approximation of when a bull run woupd start. Add to that fact that there are instances that a great price performance would occur only to be dumped hard later. A lot of mixed signals in an already convoluted free market makes things harder for people who want to draw a line of (un)certainty.

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October 21, 2018, 11:36:18 PM
 #14

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..
Base on the year 2017 market price movement the bull run happened. The bull run usually take at least a year when it recur but with dump in price that last long in the crypto market this days there's possibility the bull run cycle to increase than before after the market gain it total strengthen.


Not really. There's no "usually" here. In May 2012 there was a huge bull run, much like the one in 2017, but bigger. The price went from 1 to almost 29 USD, which is much greater than the 2017 rally. For this to be comparable, in 2017 the price that started to climb from ~3k USD would have to stop at 87k USD! That's how much money people made in 2012, and the bear market that followed lasted from June to December of the same year, so only 6 months! A bull market that took boosted the price 3 times more than the 2013 rally was followed by a bear market 4 times shorter. Your usually is based on 2014. You can't draw a pattern based on a single case.

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October 21, 2018, 11:41:06 PM
 #15

I'm seeing this a positive result of market cycle, This includes the stock market falls and global recession will getting started soon- Most huge pump are more likely a hype but the next mega bull is for the economic crisis- Most traders will jump into a new hedge fund and by the way i don't follow TA

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October 21, 2018, 11:41:52 PM
 #16

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..
I think the bull is still not show because if you are referring on what happened in 2017 it was not a bull it was just hype so the bull run still nothing, well let us wait when the bull run came I think it will have a big impact because we didn't now how much it will be or let say it will be the greatest history of bitcoin and will last longer.
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October 21, 2018, 11:46:20 PM
 #17

I'm seeing this a positive result of market cycle, This includes the stock market falls and global recession will getting started soon- Most huge pump are more likely a hype but the next mega bull is for the economic crisis- Most traders will jump into a new hedge fund and by the way i don't follow TA
I'm agree with you it will be a mega bull run because they will prepare for the economic crisis and long run again, I think it will have a new cycle again let us wait what will happen for now there is no sign that the price of coin would increase it was just stable and we didn't know if we will have a bull this year or it will happen next year or in 2020.
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October 22, 2018, 12:06:08 AM
 #18

Many in this forum seem curious about the pattern of the bull run but I guess there is no certain pattern towards it, and maybe it just comes and goes it is just an event that happens without a warning and last for just a couple month, But I really think even if we are not in the bull market bitcoin still have a decent price, to begin with and we should consider looking forward on the future price than worrying so much about the dropping price for now, And in my opinion for the time being it is a great time in acquiring bitcoin because we can never know when the bull run starts.
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October 22, 2018, 12:19:39 AM
 #19

If it was possible to predict the length of the cycle, then there would be only millionaires on this forum Smiley In the speculation section there are thousands of posts about what will happen in the near future. And as usual, some believe that at the end of this year the price of BTC will be above $10k, and others that it will fall to $4k. I think that the truth is in the middle and the price should start growing slowly now. So in my opinion, we are at the beginning of new cicle.

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October 22, 2018, 12:32:16 AM
 #20

Many in this forum seem curious about the pattern of the bull run but I guess there is no certain pattern towards it, and maybe it just comes and goes it is just an event that happens without a warning and last for just a couple month, But I really think even if we are not in the bull market bitcoin still have a decent price, to begin with and we should consider looking forward on the future price than worrying so much about the dropping price for now, And in my opinion for the time being it is a great time in acquiring bitcoin because we can never know when the bull run starts.
I have read it that since September, a lot of people are expecting that Bitcoin would rise in price and other cryptocurrencies as well. No one would be able to predict unless some whales have some different intention with its price. I like the idea to acquire more and more in a cryptocurrency, it's best to be like that.

If it was possible to predict the length of the cycle, then there would be only millionaires on this forum Smiley In the speculation section there are thousands of posts about what will happen in the near future. And as usual, some believe that at the end of this year the price of BTC will be above $10k, and others that it will fall to $4k. I think that the truth is in the middle and the price should start growing slowly now. So in my opinion, we are at the beginning of new cicle.
I think that was the different indicators are for in a chart, but you can never be sure of that. I have met with some experienced traders that they have a strategy and a method to determine what's going to happen but that's all a load of crap calling their failed calls to other names, but what all they have in common is they know how to discipline themselves and put trade cut loss if they know it was a wrong call.

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