ETF Will Kill Bitcoin For Good” Investors Express Skepticism

[talkbitcoin]

one interesting thing that i have noticed about those who speculate a rise of bitcoin because of ETF and are seemingly so excited about it is that they are all saying it out of emotions not out of speculation. in other words majority of them want the price rise and since it doesn't, they think ETF is the solution for that so they ignore everything else and only focus on the possible positive side of it alone.

[clrpod]

one interesting thing that i have noticed about those who speculate a rise of bitcoin because of ETF and are seemingly so excited about it is that they are all saying it out of emotions not out of speculation. in other words majority of them want the price rise and since it doesn't, they think ETF is the solution for that so they ignore everything else and only focus on the possible positive side of it alone.

Such is the same with near every development. People's view of what will happen is easily swayed by what they wish to happen. That being said, I do believe ETFs will be a positive thing, they're just one more piece of the puzzle. Manipulation happens anyway and the whales and financial industries will get their hands on bitcoin if they want to. We may as well allow bitcoin to reach a greater audience and exposure in the process.

[El duderino_]

i agree with that random dude on reddit which was quoted here. ETF can be one of the worst things that can happen to bitcoin specially now that bitcoin is still young.

Can you give examples on how the ETF and bitcoin derivatives markets can be bad? Market derivatives also did not prevent gold from growing to a $7 trillion market. It might have helped it, I reckon.

i generally dislike ETFs because they shouldn't even be a thing for a currency. it is like having USD ETF, or JPY ETF. they don't make sense and bitcoin as a currency should not have an ETF just like other currencies in the world don't have them.
but also i say they are a bad thing for bitcoin mostly because of the (more) market manipulation that it can bring to bitcoin.
also an Andreas Antonopoulos video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSv0J4bfBCc&vl=en

I think most people don't consider bitcoin a currency, but some sort of asset, I think in japan is seen as a property. The point is, governments are going whatever they want about it.

If it's of any use, there is this chart comparative with bitcoin and gold when it introduced the ETF, it seems similar:




The ETF should be bullish because it's supposedly bitcoin settled, so they must buy BTC to meet contract obligations, whereas the futures contracts aren't backed by BTC so it was bearish.

"Buy the dip" is what that chart is telling me.

With or without an ETF, Bitcoin will be priced in six digits by 2020 - 2021 because of simple economics. Less supply, more demand, and the honey badger don't care.

PEEP

no don't care

[exstasie]

one interesting thing that i have noticed about those who speculate a rise of bitcoin because of ETF and are seemingly so excited about it is that they are all saying it out of emotions not out of speculation. in other words majority of them want the price rise and since it doesn't, they think ETF is the solution for that so they ignore everything else and only focus on the possible positive side of it alone.

That's where I think the comparisons to gold are coming from. People are looking for any reason to justify a rise in price. If they looked a little further, they'd see that plenty of assets declined in price when their first ETF was launched. Gold is a cherry-picked example.

It really all depends on whether Bitcoin is in a bull market when it gets launched. No bull market to be seen here....

[1Referee]

If it's of any use, there is this chart comparative with bitcoin and gold when it introduced the ETF, it seems similar:

It's very similar, but that also applies to plenty of other assets after a bull run. If you look at various tech stocks for example, and then mainly their activity during and after the dot com bubble, you'll see how similar the charts look.

People keep focusing on the SEC for an ETF approval, but with how the demand for Bitcoin is coming mainly from Asia, and how the market in general there is further in development than the western market, there are chances that we'll be seeing an Asian ETF well before we finally see the SEC make up its mind. People need to figure out that there is more in the world than just the US.

Bakkt is great tool to measure institutional interest in the underlying asset, so let's wait for their market to go live first. If the demand is there, they'll bite. If there is little to no demand we'll know as well.

[bbc.reporter]

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I think most people don't consider bitcoin a currency, but some sort of asset, I think in japan is seen as a property. The point is, governments are going whatever they want about it.

If it's of any use, there is this chart comparative with bitcoin and gold when it introduced the ETF, it seems similar:

Japan is like the iconic country that actually sees bitcoin as a currency (aka a legal way of payment as they put it). and i am not talking about governments and what they see in bitcoin, but instead about what bitcoin really is.
you can't use that chart because bitcoin and gold have nothing in common to begin with and also because the scale of that chart is manipulated. bitcoin's chart is for less than 10 years while gold is for more than 50! besides bitcoin isn't rising because of some ETF, but it is rising because it is a global decentralized payment system that nobody can censor.

~
But I reckon bitcoin is almost not treated as a currency but more as an investment in a digital gold type of asset. Agreed that it might bring more manipulation but it is already manipulated nevertheless.

ETFs and other derivatives brought gold to be a $7 trillion market, why do you reckon will it not bring the same to bitcoin?

the problem with seeing bitcoin as an investment not a currency is that it becomes worthless if you do that! in other words if you remove the currency aspect then you are left with some numbers in a database which you are trading virtually.
when you think about ETF and gold you can clearly see the benefit of it. because without things such as ETF if you wanted to buy gold as an investment you had to also dedicate a space in your garage for storing this gold! now with ETF you are buying gold without needing to store it. but it is not the same with bitcoin! you can store $0.01 or $100 million on a piece of paper alike. so you don't need ETF and that can only bring the manipulation part of it in the market instead. not to mention that many of the proposals don't even have to be backed by actual bitcoins!

I do not see the difference between gold as an investment, bluechip stocks as an investment and bitcoin as an investment. All 3 each have their own market where their prices can go up and down depending on the market cycle.

Also, can you explain how the ETF removes bitcoin's currency aspect?

[Rune]

All the ETF really does is give some investors the illusion that they are putting there money into bitcoin when they are in fact not this does take away a lot of the investment that would actually be in bitcoin.
I don't agree with what his says keeping the price down forever and all this nonsense as long as it is still possible for people to trade bitcoin freely then the people who know to actually hold there keys will bring the price up regardless of a ETF.

[cellard]

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I think most people don't consider bitcoin a currency, but some sort of asset, I think in japan is seen as a property. The point is, governments are going whatever they want about it.

If it's of any use, there is this chart comparative with bitcoin and gold when it introduced the ETF, it seems similar:

Japan is like the iconic country that actually sees bitcoin as a currency (aka a legal way of payment as they put it). and i am not talking about governments and what they see in bitcoin, but instead about what bitcoin really is.
you can't use that chart because bitcoin and gold have nothing in common to begin with and also because the scale of that chart is manipulated. bitcoin's chart is for less than 10 years while gold is for more than 50! besides bitcoin isn't rising because of some ETF, but it is rising because it is a global decentralized payment system that nobody can censor.

~
But I reckon bitcoin is almost not treated as a currency but more as an investment in a digital gold type of asset. Agreed that it might bring more manipulation but it is already manipulated nevertheless.

ETFs and other derivatives brought gold to be a $7 trillion market, why do you reckon will it not bring the same to bitcoin?

the problem with seeing bitcoin as an investment not a currency is that it becomes worthless if you do that! in other words if you remove the currency aspect then you are left with some numbers in a database which you are trading virtually.
when you think about ETF and gold you can clearly see the benefit of it. because without things such as ETF if you wanted to buy gold as an investment you had to also dedicate a space in your garage for storing this gold! now with ETF you are buying gold without needing to store it. but it is not the same with bitcoin! you can store $0.01 or $100 million on a piece of paper alike. so you don't need ETF and that can only bring the manipulation part of it in the market instead. not to mention that many of the proposals don't even have to be backed by actual bitcoins!

ETF gold is not that different from ETF bitcoin if you think about it. Sure, the most obvious reason for an ETF for gold to exist is the fact that storing gold is cumbersome, specially for big multi millionaire investors.

But now think about it: With an ETF for bitcoin, people that want exposure to bitcoin but don't want to learn and stress about securing it themselves would use the ETF to delegate the task.

Actually it's exactly the same. With both gold and bitcoin the point is to own and secure it yourself, but not everyone thinks the same. Any decent ETF will be backed by the underlying so fractional reserve is not possible. Actually there's higher risk of that with gold than BTC which is strictly limited in amount and cryptographically secured at all times. With gold supply is unknown.

The conclusion is:

1) We cannot avoid governments releasing ETF's
2) If the ETF is decent, it will be bitcoin backed, which means super bullish

[Juggy777]

All the ETF really does is give some investors the illusion that they are putting there money into bitcoin when they are in fact not this does take away a lot of the investment that would actually be in bitcoin.
I don't agree with what his says keeping the price down forever and all this nonsense as long as it is still possible for people to trade bitcoin freely then the people who know to actually hold there keys will bring the price up regardless of a ETF.

I feel bitcoins etf is a good idea as these institutions are buying physical bitcoins, and giving their value based on the prices of bitcoins. Also they'll be under direct supervision of governments which will make them much more secured, and even insured from hacks, which the exchanges are prone to. I believe the key to a bull run is adoption and money pouring in bitcoins, and bitcoins etf can tap on the middle class people income which shall trigger another bull run.

[pooya87]

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Also, can you explain how the ETF removes bitcoin's currency aspect?

it is not the ETF that is doing that, it is people!
the mentality of people is changing. over the years they have gone from "bitcoin is freedom from banks and government" to "when can i become rich selling bitcoin". that is why most people are excited about ETF. and sadly most of them don't even know what ETF is.

[bbc.reporter]

@pooya87. The when can I become rich selling bitcoin type of attitude harmonizes with the description of bitcoin's function as a store of value for wealth. Would you say that the people's willingness to invest im bitcoin does not add any value to it?

Also, holding bitcoin as an investment has already occurred years before the ETF's proposal. How do you reckon does it give freedom if not by selling fiat for holding bitcoin?

[timerland]

Can the economists of the forum explain how the ETF opens for Wall Street the possibility of manipulating the price by diluting it with derivatives? I reckon it would be harder to do compared to gold because bitcoins can be traded easily over the counter worldwide without a need of an exchange or central authorities issuing ETFs.

Also read Andreas Antonopolous' comment because it also applies on wbtc.

In any case, wbtc is nothing but a new token issued by Bitgo for users to trade in Ethereum based decentralized exchanges while your bitcoins are in Bitgo's custody that requires KYC. I shake my head hehehe.



When the term Bitcoin ETF is mentioned in the crypto community, it is likely accompanied with a positive response precisely because of its tendency to skyrocket the token to a larger platform for investment, thus birthing bigger returns.

However, a cryptocurrency investor has expressed his concern for what might become of Bitcoin if the SEC agrees with the Bitcoin ETF applications. Certain that the token will lose its value, the user under the pseudonym “mariner2525” cried out via Reddit saying

"Bitcoin ETF is the worst thing that could ever happen to crypto. They’ve been rigging gold and silver – they will totally rig Bitcoin price by diluting it with derivatives.
After ETF- and a temporary spike in price – Bitcoin will be dead low all the time”

Antonopoulos explained that Bitcoin ETFs are aimed at making Bitcoin a tradable instrument suited for the stock market, which places it under the supervision and control of a custodian who holds the actual Bitcoin while investors are left with a share in their funds and not the Bitcoin itself.

In his words

“ETFs fundamentally violates the underlying principle of peer-to-peer money, where each user is not operating through a custodian but has direct control of their money because they have direct control of their keys”

Read in full https://zycrypto.com/etf-will-kill-bitcoin-for-good-investors-express-skepticism/

I absolutely agree. With ETFs, it's not going to really benefit day to day bitcoin users at all. The thing is that these ETFs are attempting to target whale investors as well as institutions who want to invest in bitcoin, without having to hold bitcoin themselves.

The fact that someone who is investing in an ETF is not able to hold any bitcoins, or anything that is backed by bitcoin sounds like an extremely dangerous idea. It can obviously start manipulation of the market as well even though I do think that's less of a concern with bitcoin as you mentioned due to the more liquid nature of actual bitcoins, compared to chunky gold/silver pieces that needs to be melted into bars.

But all of this means that ETFs shouldn't be hyped up like it is being right now. It defeats the purpose of a decentralized crypto in the first place, as a store of value. With the wbtc created by Bitgo, it defeats the purpose of a decentralized exchange as the funds need to go through a centralized checkpoint before it can be converted from BTC to wBTC. Both of these instruments aren't something that I personally would appreciate or use at any stage, even if ETFs do get approved.