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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 8, 2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

The Pound-Dollar pair broke its three-day losing streak, trading near 1.2700 during the Asian session on Thursday. The gains could be driven by a weaker US Dollar (USD) as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to begin cutting rates more aggressively in September.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September is 72.0%, up from 11.8% a week earlier. The expectation of deeper rate cuts could put pressure on the US Dollar in the near term.

According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed confidence earlier this week that U.S. inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target. Daly noted that "risks to Fed mandates are becoming more balanced and that there is an openness to the possibility of rate cuts at upcoming meetings."

As for the British Pound, rising risk aversion associated with escalating tensions in the Middle East may cause traders to abandon risk-sensitive currencies such as the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to two US intelligence officials, Iran and its allies are preparing a potential retaliatory strike against Israel. Such a response is expected following the recent assassinations of a top Iranian Hezbollah military commander in Lebanon and a senior Hamas leader in Tehran, according to CNN.

Meanwhile, the British pound's gains may be tempered by increased expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points at its August meeting. In addition, market expectations now include the possibility of two more quarter-point rate cuts by the Bank of England before December.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2700, if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 9, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair ended its three-day losing streak, trading near the 1.0920 mark during the Asian session. The EUR/USD pair's rise could be attributed to a decline in the US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to heightened expectations of a dovish policy from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, EURUSD ran into trouble when US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 fell to 233,000, below market expectations of 240,000. The decline followed an upwardly revised reading of 250,000 in the previous week, which was the highest in a year.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the U.S. dollar against six other major currencies, has pulled back from recent gains and is trading around 103.20. In addition, declining U.S. Treasury yields are weighing on the dollar, standing at 4.01% and 3.97% respectively at the time of writing.

On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that a reduction in monetary policy may be "appropriate" if inflation remains low. Schmid noted that the Fed's current policy "is not that restrictive" and that while the Fed is close to its 2% inflation target, it has not yet fully achieved it, Reuters reported.

On the euro, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that the central bank could continue to cut interest rates if inflation slows in the near future. Rehn said: "Inflation continues to slow, but the path to the 2% target remains bumpy this year," according to Reuters.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 12, 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

Tuesday will see the release of monthly UK employment data and US Producer Price Index (PPI), followed by UK and US consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, Thursday's preliminary UK second quarter GDP data will impact sentiment around the British Pound (GBP) and help determine the next leg of directional movement for the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) recent move to cut interest rates on August 1 for the first time since 2020, bets on two more rate cuts in 2024, and ongoing unrest in the UK continue to undermine the British Pound's position. In addition, the risk of further escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East provides some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and puts pressure on GBP/USD.

Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has decided to directly attack Israel and may do so within days in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July. Nevertheless, expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) may deter Dollar bulls from aggressive bets and serve as a tailwind for GBP/USD.

Hence, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for a resumption of the three-week downtrend from the mid-1,3000s, or the yearly peak reached in July. In the absence of any market-important economic releases on Monday, dollar price dynamics will weigh on GBP/USD and create short-term trading opportunities.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.2800, if the level is fixed above, we take Buy positions, if the level rebounds, we take Sell positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Producer Price Index

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday. Safe-haven currency flows may limit the yen's decline, which could be linked to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

A special session of the Japanese parliament is scheduled for August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise interest rates last month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be invited to the session, organized by the lower house's financial affairs committee, government sources reported citing Reuters.

The USD/JPY pair is gaining support amid easing pressure on the U.S. dollar due to lower expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September fell to 50% from 85% last week. Nevertheless, the betting markets continue to rate the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting at least 25 bps at 100%.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 14, 2024 EURUSD

An event to look out for today:

12:00 GMT+3. EUR - GDP Volume Change

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair is trading on a flat note near 1.0990 in the early European session on Wednesday. Traders are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of important economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US. Keep a close eye on the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) and the US consumer price index (CPI) for July.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for US final demand rose 2.2% y/y in July versus 2.7% in the previous month, lower than the 2.3% expected. The monthly PPI increased 0.1% y/y after rising 0.2% in June. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.4% y/y in July, up from 3.0% in June, below the market consensus forecast of 2.7%.

Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, while a 50 bps rate cut in September is not out of the question, but it will be entirely data dependent. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday emphasized that the latest economic data has given him "more confidence" that the Fed will be able to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, more evidence is needed before he would be willing to support an interest rate cut.

The Eurozone economy is estimated to have grown 0.3% in the second quarter from the previous quarter and 0.6% from a year earlier. Weaker than expected GDP growth figures may have a negative impact on the Euro (EUR) exchange rate against the US Dollar (USD).

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0990, if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 15, 2024 GBPUSD

Events to watch out for today:

09:00 GMT+3. GBP - GDP Volume Change

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in retail trade volume

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD retreated and fell below 1.28500 on Wednesday after Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell on both sides of the Atlantic, breaking the Pound's four-day winning streak. Traders will be awaiting UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth data and US retail sales.

UK GDP growth for the quarter is expected to fall to 0.6% from a previous reading of 0.7%, while UK GDP year-on-year is expected to rise to 0.9% from a previous reading of 0.3%. In the US, retail sales for the month are expected to rise to 0.3% after 0.0% in June.

US CPI inflation came in at 2.9% y/y in July, slightly below the expected 3.0%. Core inflation also fell to 3.2% y/y from the previous reading of 3.0%. Both core and core monthly CPI rose 0.2% mom in July, exceeding forecasts of 0.15% and 0.17% for core and core CPI, respectively.

Despite the decline in consumer inflation, investors were expecting an even lower reading following this week's US Producer Price Index (PPI), which showed a greater reduction in producer-level price pressures. However, it appears that the reduction in price pressures is not being passed on directly to consumers. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the betting markets currently estimate the probability of a double rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18 at only 40%, down from 50% at the start of the week and 70% the previous week.

The UK Consumer Price Index rose year-on-year in July but fell short of average market forecasts, coming in at 2.2% versus the expected 2.3%. This figure is still above the previous reading of 2.0%, while the core inflation index fell to 3.3% from the previous reading of 3.5%.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.2850. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.2810.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 16, 2024 USDJPY

An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Building Permits

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) bounced back against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, possibly due to Japan's recent second quarter GDP growth, which supports the possibility of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike in the near future.

However, the Yen could face challenges from political uncertainty in Japan due to reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek re-election as party leader in September, effectively ending his term as Prime Minister.

The USD/JPY pair is declining as the US dollar loses ground amid lower Treasury yields. In addition, traders are fully pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, the dollar received support as recent better-than-expected US economic data eased market fears of a US recession. In addition, later in the North American session, preliminary data on Michigan consumer sentiment index for August and building permits for July will be released.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 19, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) is appreciating against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day amid hawkish sentiment towards the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The latest data on Japan's second quarter GDP growth confirms the possibility of an interest rate hike by the BoJ in the near future.

Japan's machinery orders, a key indicator of capital spending, rose 2.1% month-on-month in June, exceeding the forecasted 1.1% increase. Markets await Japan's inflation data later this week to get further insight into the direction of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

The US Dollar continues to lose ground after dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut by the US central bank in September. In addition, US economic data last week showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated weakening inflation.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly on Sunday emphasized that the U.S. central bank should take a gradual approach to reducing borrowing costs, the Financial Times reported. In addition, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned that central bank officials should be cautious about pursuing restrictive policies longer than necessary.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD rose on Monday as investors started the new trading week by buying euros in the broad market. The price has consolidated at 1.1080 and and is aiming for 1.1100. Recently, poor data from the US has renewed investor fears of an impending recession in the US.

The middle of the week is quiet as markets await key PMI data from the EU and the US as well as the start of this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. All three of these events are expected to hit the markets on Thursday.

The EU purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to rise in August. The EU manufacturing PMI for the month is expected to rise to 46.0 from 45.8, while the services PMI for the same period is expected to remain at 51.9.

On the other side of the Atlantic, US PMI data is expected to soften on Thursday. The US manufacturing PMI for August is expected to fall slightly to 49.5 from 49.6, while the services PMI is expected to fall a full point to 54.0 from 55.0.

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which kicks off a multi-day central bank extravaganza on Thursday, investors around the world will be watching for any signals from Fed policymakers on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

The latest bets for a double rate cut in September have fallen significantly since peaking at 70% two weeks ago. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the betting markets rate the probability of a 50 bps rate cut. Sept. 18 as one in five. Overall, markets are still fully factoring in the likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut in September, with three or four quarter-point rate cuts expected before the end of the year.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 21, 2024 GBPUSD

An event to look out for today:

21:00 GMT+3. USD - Publication of the Fed meeting minutes

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD added another third of a percent on Tuesday, hitting a new 13-month high and closing in the greenback for the third consecutive day as sterling takes advantage of the dollar's weakness in the broad market. Market sentiment is holding high ahead of the release of key business survey results and the upcoming start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Wednesday will give markets another opportunity to take a breather before the release of important data in the second half of the trading week. August UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is expected to rise slightly, with the services PMI component expected to rise to 52.8 from 52.5. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1.

Thursday will see the release of the US PMI business activity survey and the start of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which runs through the weekend. Wednesday will see the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, but overall markets will be focused on Thursday's results for reasons to move.

The S&P Global PMI US Manufacturing PMI for August is expected to be unchanged at 49.6, while the Services PMI is expected to drop a full point to 54.0 from 55.0. The start of the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to attract investors' attention on Thursday, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday will set the general tone for market sentiment early next week.

Trading recommendation: We are watching the level of 1.3050. If the level is fixed above, we consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds, we consider Sell positions.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 22, 2024 USDJPY

Events to watch out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits

16:45 GMT+3. USD - Composite PMI

USDJPY:

Traders expect Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda to address parliament on Friday, where he will discuss the central bank's decision to raise interest rates last month.

A Reuters poll conducted from 13 to 19 August and published on Wednesday showed 31 of 54 economists expect the BoJ to raise borrowing costs before the end of the year. The median forecast points to a 25 basis point hike, bringing the year-end rate to 0.50 per cent.

The US Dollar (USD) rose on Thursday, helped by a small recovery in Treasury yields. However, USD gains may be limited as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points (bps) in 2024. Market analysts remain divided on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting is 65.5%, up from 71.0% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 34.5% from 29.0% a day earlier.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 145.90. We consider sell orders at the price level of 145.20.

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Golden predictions come true!

Gold prices (XAUUSD) have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $2,550 per ounce for the first time in history.

Our long-term forecast from April 18, 2024, is coming true, with gold rising over $120 per ounce and steadily pushing towards new records.

Factors driving gold prices and expert opinions:

• Major central bank purchases: Gold prices are rising due to significant metal purchases by central banks, boosting its value.
• Geopolitical instability: Increased geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, is driving demand for gold as a safe haven. Ongoing conflicts in various regions also contribute to the rising prices.
• Fed rate cut expectations: Investors anticipate a potential rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, making gold a more attractive option. According to CME, there's a 75.5% probability of a rate reduction from the current 5.25–5.5% to 5–5.25%, enhancing gold's appeal.
• Growth projections: Analysts at ING and other financial institutions predict that gold prices will peak in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially reaching $2,700 per ounce by year-end and $3,000 in the long term.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 23, 2024 EURUSD

An event to look out for today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will deliver a speech

EURUSD:

The EURUSD pair is regaining positive momentum today and for the moment seems to have paused its pullback from the one-year high reached on Wednesday. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.1125.

Data released on Wednesday showed that US job growth in the last year to March was much weaker than originally anticipated. In addition, a rise in weekly initial jobless claims pointed to a cooling labour market, which, along with a decline in the US manufacturing PMI, suggests that the economy is in danger of slowing down. This, in turn, confirms market forecasts of an imminent start to the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cutting cycle in September and does not help the dollar to capitalise on a nice bounce from its low since the start of the year. This largely overshadowed the mixed Eurozone PMI data released on Thursday and is proving to be a key factor providing some support for EUR/USD.

Indeed, the preliminary composite Eurozone PMI from S&P Global came in at 54.1 compared to the forecast of 53.5, although it showed a slight decline from 54.3 in the previous month. Meanwhile, business activity in Germany, the Eurozone's largest economy, contracted for the second consecutive month and more than expected. In addition, wage growth in the Eurozone slowed to 3.55 per cent in Q2 2024 from 4.74 per cent in Q1 2024. This in turn strengthens the case for two more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year. This could deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the common currency and limit any meaningful strengthening movement in EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, reports from the ECB's July meeting indicated that the September meeting was perceived as an appropriate time to reassess the level of monetary policy tightening. In addition, ECB Governing Council member Martins Cazacs expressed confidence that inflation will return to the 2% level and also said that he is willing to discuss another interest rate cut at the September meeting. Thus, any further upward movement could face some resistance, although bearish sentiment around the US Dollar may continue to act as a tailwind for EUR/USD.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 26, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair continues to rise for the second session, trading near 1.11900 during the Asian session on Monday. The rise in EUR/USD is attributed to the decline in the US dollar following a dovish speech by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “The time has come for policy adjustment.” Although Powell did not specify when the rate cut would begin or what its potential size would be, markets expect the U.S. central bank to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting.

In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasized on Friday the need for the U.S. central bank to gradually lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that monetary policy is currently as restrictive as possible and the Fed is now focused on achieving its employment mandate.

As for the euro, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Friday that slowing inflation along with weakness in the eurozone economy strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs next month, Bloomberg reported. Growth prospects in Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector, are quite weak, strengthening the case for a rate cut in September.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 27, 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

At the start of the new trading week, the GBP/USD exchange rate saw a slight decline, falling below 1.3200 on Monday. This marks the end of a seven-day winning streak that saw the pair rise more than 3% from 1.2800 to a 29-month high of 1.3230.

UK markets were closed on Monday due to a bank holiday, which had the effect of reducing the volume of sterling flows and providing a boost to the US dollar. Following a period of heightened risk appetite, markets are currently adopting a more cautious stance in light of the Federal Reserve's indication that a rate cut is likely to occur in September, barring any significant shifts in economic data.

The economic calendar for the upcoming trading week is expected to be relatively inactive. On Thursday, the anticipated figure for US gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter is expected to remain unchanged at an annualised rate of 2.8%. The focus on Friday will be on the July core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% month-on-month. The year-on-year PCE inflation rate is forecast to increase from 2.6% to 2.7%. Nevertheless, investors anticipate that inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may result in a rate cut in September.

US durable goods orders saw an unexpected increase of 9.9% in July compared to the previous month, exceeding the projected 4.0% and reversing a revised contraction of -6.9% in June. However, concerns persist as, when excluding transport costs, durable goods orders declined by -0.2% month-on-month, worse than the anticipated 0.0% and 0.1% in June, which were revised down from 0.5%.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 28, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) declined slightly against the US dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, conflicting outlooks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Friday that the central bank may consider further interest rate hikes if its economic forecasts prove accurate.

The yen's decline may be limited by hawkish sentiment around the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted at a symposium in Jackson Hole that ‘the time has come for policy adjustment.’ However, Powell did not specify the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts.

In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday that ‘it's time’ to start cutting interest rates, probably by a quarter of a percentage point.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets fully expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 29, 2024 GBPUSD

Events to watch out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - GDP volume change for the quarter

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is back to the 29-month high set on Tuesday at 1.3266. The pair is being helped by renewed selling in the US Dollar despite the prevalence of risk-off-oriented flows following disappointing guidance from US AI titan Nvidia.

The diverging monetary policy outlook between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) also remains in favor of the GBP/USD uptrend.

ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Wednesday that he is waiting for more information before deciding whether to support an interest rate cut in September. Nevertheless, markets expect the ECB to cut borrowing costs next month amid easing price pressures and an uncertain economic outlook.

Stronger-than-forecast economic data in recent months and optimism about the new Labor government are supporting the British pound. Comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey also support the British Pound. Bailey stated that “policy should remain restrictive for long enough until the risks of inflation holding steady around the 2% target over the medium term dissipate. Therefore, the exchange rate will be sustainable.” According to a Reuters poll, economists expect another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the Bank of England this year

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.3220. Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.3170.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 30, 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

Following the release of Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is showing signs of recovery against the US Dollar (USD). The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish stance on monetary policy is reinforced by rising inflation in Tokyo, which in turn supports the Japanese Yen and exerts downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.6% year-on-year in August, up from 2.2% in July. The core CPI also increased to 1.6% year-on-year in August, up from the previous reading of 1.5%. Furthermore, Japan's unemployment rate saw an unexpected increase to 2.7% in July, above the market estimate and June's 2.5%. This represents the highest rate since August 2023.

The decline in the USD/JPY may be limited as the US dollar maintains its recent gains following the release of stronger-than-expected economic data on Thursday. However, dovish comments from the Federal Reserve may curb further dollar strength.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 02, 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate ended a three-day losing streak on Monday, trading near 1.1050 during the Asian session. The increase in EUR/USD can be attributed to a decline in the value of the US dollar (USD) in response to the dovish stance adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the July US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index may provide support for the USD, limiting the potential for the pair to rise further.

On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in July, matching the previous reading of 2.5% but falling short of the forecast of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, saw a 2.6% year-on-year increase in July, matching the previous reading of 2.6%. This figure was slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.7%.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction in the Federal Reserve interest rate at the upcoming September meeting. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic, one of the most prominent hawks on the FOMC, stated last week that it may be an opportune time to consider a rate cut due to further cooling inflation and higher-than-expected unemployment. The FXStreet FedTracker indicator, which rates the tone of Fed officials' speeches on a dovish to hawkish scale of 0 to 10 using a special artificial intelligence model, rated Kashkari's words as neutral with a score of 5.6.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau stated on Friday, according to Bloomberg, that there are 'good reasons' for the central bank to consider cutting its key interest rate in September. Mr. de Galhau suggested action at the upcoming meeting on 12 September, noting that a decision on a new rate cut would be fair and prudent.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

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