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Author Topic: Analysis - DT Depth 2 - Profile Distribution  (Read 170 times)
DdmrDdmr
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November 13, 2018, 04:53:26 PM
Last edit: November 14, 2018, 03:03:43 PM by DdmrDdmr
Merited by suchmoon (4), LoyceV (2), Piggy (1)
 #1

1. Introduction.

@Piggy has kindly made available some interesting raw data, that allows us to get some insights into some global Bitcointalk profile related information. Specifically, I looked at the Trust profile information.

The information provided in this analysis is related to the Default Trust layout, without customization of any sort, and set at depth 2 (if that is not your setting, the numbers presented here will vary from you profile vision, and the detailed profile trust information provided in a list further ahead on this post). The base considered is that of 2.437.064 forum profiles (profiles as of a week ago roughly).

Trust has 3 components (A: B /C), whose exact current calculus I have not been able to find (the core thread on the topic is Marketplace trust), where:

  A is the Trust Score.
  B is the number of unique users who have given the dealt with person negative feedback.
  C is the number of unique users who have given the dealt with person positive feedback.

Edit: @suchmoon posted on another thread a link to a post by @theymos, where he explains the current Trust algorithm in detail (see: Minor trust score algorithm change). After reading through, I've changed the description above for B and C.


I’ve included a complete list of all <> 0 Trust profiles, along with some profile information here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17iRvcL149--2erpOmU0VufebRINo4BFvvoYHPVb-bBY/edit?usp=sharing


2. Trust Score (A) - Distribution

Trust Score (A) has the following distribution across the complete Bitcointalk profile base:


Things that stand out:

a) 1.940 profiles have positive trust (0,08% of all profiles), 14.969 have negative trust or unknown (0,614%), and the remaining 2.420.155 profiles have this value set to cero (99,306%).

b) Positive trust is concentrated on Legendries (423), Hero Members (323), Sr. Members (293), Full Members (254), Members (215) … and strangely enough Newbies (303).

c) There are even 15 cases of Brand New with positive trust, although only three have been active during 2018: MindlessElectron (a self-declared bot account), nemya and avanpay.

d) Negative or unknown Trust is concentrated on newbies (7.691), Brand New (1.937), Members (1.530), Full Members (1.515), Sr.Members (1.083), Heroes (573) and Legendries (248).

e) There are 45 entries will a Null value, corresponding to profiles with the value ?? (unknown - examples: winter and BlockEye).

Top 25:
Code:
trust               rank                userId    UserName                      LastActive          URL
356: -0 / +36       Donator             18321     OgNasty                       2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=18321
333: -0 / +34       Legendary           134378    Blazed                        2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=134378
270: -0 / +27       Legendary           133846    monbux                        2018-08-27          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=133846
240: -0 / +24       Legendary           37522     Tomatocage                    2018-05-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=37522
210: -0 / +21       Legendary           81292     Stunna                        2018-11-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=81292
180: -0 / +18       Legendary           136592    devthedev                     2018-10-20          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=136592
178: -0 / +18       Legendary           113670    Mitchell                      2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=113670
178: -0 / +18       Legendary           31288     John (John K.)                2018-11-01          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=31288
175: -0 / +18       Copper Member       346731    minerjones                    2018-11-04          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=346731
170: -0 / +17       Administrator       35        theymos                       2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=35
170: -0 / +17       Legendary           15728     TECSHARE                      2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=15728
170: -0 / +17       Donator             18614     CanaryInTheMine               2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=18614
167: -0 / +17       Legendary           162384    hedgy73                       2018-11-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=162384
150: -0 / +15       Legendary           38894     SaltySpitoon                  2018-11-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=38894
142: -0 / +15       Legendary           3420      dooglus                       2018-11-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3420
141: -0 / +15       Legendary           30747     Vod                           2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=30747
140: -0 / +14       Legendary           122354    Carra23                       2016-07-27          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=122354
140: -0 / +14       Legendary           79720     cooldgamer                    2018-09-04          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=79720
140: -0 / +14       Legendary           224612    bithalo                       2018-11-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=224612
139: -0 / +14       Legendary           109430    TookDk                        2018-09-22          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=109430
138: -0 / +14       Legendary           18640     SebastianJu                   2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=18640
137: -0 / +14       Legendary           169515    EcuaMobi                      2018-11-01          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=169515
129: -0 / +13       Legendary           153656    TheNewAnon135246              2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=153656
129: -0 / +13       Legendary           64507     philipma1957                  2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64507
120: -0 / +12       Legendary           353680    chronicsky                    2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=353680

Bottom 25:
Code:
trust               rank                userId    UserName                      LastActive          URL
-9999: -14 / +4     VIP                 67058     TradeFortress                 2018-10-31          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=67058
-9999: -16 / +10    Hero Member         89329     master-P                      2016-01-19          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=89329
-2048: -11 / +0     Newbie              650557    magic max                     2015-11-24          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=650557
-2048: -11 / +0     Jr. Member          1764044   alia                          2018-03-06          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1764044
-512: -9 / +0       Legendary           8198      Inaba                         2014-12-31          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=8198
-512: -9 / +0       Hero Member         177007    Pierre11                      2018-02-07          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=177007
-505: -9 / +7       Legendary           35312     Maidak                        2017-08-11          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=35312
-256: -8 / +0       Legendary           197593    amaclin                       2018-09-29          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=197593
-256: -8 / +0       Full Member         525055    GotaPauj                      2015-11-27          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=525055
-256: -8 / +0       Jr. Member          1738568   eNazifKoin                    2018-05-19          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1738568
-240: -8 / +16      Sr. Member          343899    BiPolarBob                    2018-06-07          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=343899
-128: -7 / +0       Legendary           202115    Betcoin.AG                    2018-11-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=202115
-128: -7 / +0       Newbie              154345    haightst                      2018-03-12          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154345
-128: -7 / +0       Hero Member         309031    Kozan                         2016-06-02          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=309031
-128: -7 / +0       Member              311138    Archerbow550                  2017-08-06          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=311138
-128: -7 / +0       Full Member         561660    Ralobot.com                   2016-03-16          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=561660
-128: -7 / +0       Member              562146    Magnesium Coin                2016-08-09          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=562146
-128: -7 / +0       Hero Member         874254    game-protect                  2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=874254
-128: -7 / +0       Sr. Member          485410    SNavy                         2016-10-10          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=485410
-128: -7 / +0       Full Member         44366     BFL                           2017-07-11          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=44366
-128: -7 / +0       Full Member         397854    Ninjahitoko                   2016-07-14          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=397854
-128: -7 / +0       Brand new           517700    fuck_her_rightinthepussy      2016-08-17          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=517700
-114: -7 / +14      Copper Member       358020    Quickseller                   2018-11-03          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=358020
-64: -6 / +0        Member              152722    TheGambler                    2018-03-22          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=152722
-64: -6 / +0        Hero Member         403194    BTCBLOGGER                    2017-11-11          https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=403194

Since there are many accounts that do not even login, I’ve also narrowed down the data to accounts that have logged in during 2018, with a non-cero trust value:



a) 1.343 profiles that have logged-in during 2018 have positive trust, while 7.882 have negative trust or unknown.

b) Positive trust is concentrated on Legendries (390), Hero Members (225), Sr. Members (189), Full Members (159), Members (121) … and Newbies (123).

c) Negative or unknown Trust is concentrated on newbies (3.486), Brand New (675), Members (964), Full Members (1.045), Sr.Members (749), Heroes (393) and Legendries (201).

d) 54,56% of non-cero Trust profiles have logged-in during 2018.

I crossed the average earned merit per segment x rank, to see if there were significant differences:

 Nevertheless, I wouldn’t really pay too much notice to the above table, since we do not know the order of events on the Negative Trust segments (i.e., many likely got their awarded merit before the negative trust, not after the negative trust).

The following I think have less weight in the big picture, so I’ll just lay out the distributions without further additional comment:


3. Negative Ratings (B) - Distribution

Global distribution:


Logged-in during 2018 distribution:




4. Positive Ratings (C) - Distribution

Global distribution:


Logged-in during 2018 distribution:




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suchmoon
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November 13, 2018, 05:21:56 PM
 #2

Great data as usual. Just a small nitpick: [1..10], and then (10..20] would probably make more sense than [1..10) and [10..20) because of how scores "age".

E.g. if you get +1 from DT the score will gradually (over a months?) go up to 10 and stay there.

So [1..10] would reflect all those with aging or fully aged +1 ratings, (10..20] would be +2 etc if there are no negatives.

Edit: I'm talking about #2.

For #3 and #4 you might want to use a different word instead of "score" - it's not the same score as in #2, but rather a number of positive/negative ratings, right?

DdmrDdmr
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November 13, 2018, 05:46:22 PM
 #3

<...>
Thanks for the suggestions. I do have some doubt's in terms of the interpretation of each individual figure (which are now clearer to me), and I also saw that there are concentration of values on the multiples of 10 values of the score. I’ll modify the OP as per your suggestions to facilitate interpreting the information.

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