Interesting USDt chart

[coolcoinz]

I've recently noticed this little thing. Might shed some light on the recent price action.




To explain, blue line is USDt/USD chart, orange line is BTC/USD. Note that BTC was slowly rising, but at some point on 13th November our so called "stablecoin" started to lose value to USD to the point where it dragged all cryptocurrencies down. I've seen people say that it's normal for USDt to lose value during a crypto crash, because it's after all another coin, and people are going through it to sell other cryptos, but this shows that it did not go down because people were selling, it went down when the price of Bitcoin was in fact rising. A whole day before the recent 15% crash.

Now, let me put my tinfoil hat on. On the same day, the 13th, we get this: https://cryptonews.com/news/bitfinex-users-struggle-with-fiat-withdrawal-2905.htm
Is Bitfinex messing up the price for us, or is it all just a coincidence?

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[NeuroticFish]

To explain, blue line is USDt/USD chart, orange line is BTC/USD. Note that BTC was slowly rising, but at some point on 13th November our so called "stablecoin" started to lose value to USD to the point where it dragged all cryptocurrencies down. I've seen people say that it's normal for USDt to lose value during a crypto crash, because it's after all another coin, and people are going through it to sell other cryptos, but this shows that it did not go down because people were selling, it went down when the price of Bitcoin was in fact rising. A whole day before the recent 15% crash.

Now, let me put my tinfoil hat on. On the same day, the 13th, we get this: https://cryptonews.com/news/bitfinex-users-struggle-with-fiat-withdrawal-2905.htm
Is Bitfinex messing up the price for us, or is it all just a coincidence?

I think that USDT issues are not related to this fall. Actually when USDT started to have issues BTC gave the impression it have been rising (but it was rising only against USDT, not USD).
Also, now USDT seems to have been recovering, so it "would" be no reason for BTC to react like this.

Plus, Bitfinex liquidity / withdrawal issues are not new, I've read that they have issues since August or so (I thought it was USD, not USDT though).

[coolcoinz]

I think that USDT issues are not related to this fall. Actually when USDT started to have issues BTC gave the impression it have been rising (but it was rising only against USDT, not USD).

Yet on the chart you can clearly see that USDT was losing value to USD and BTC, while BTC was rising against USD.
The loss of USDT value against USD clearly preceded the BTC/USD crash.

Also, now USDT seems to have been recovering, so it "would" be no reason for BTC to react like this.

It is, and so is the number of longs, but it doesn't change the fact that it could have been responsible, or at least partially responsible for the crash.

Plus, Bitfinex liquidity / withdrawal issues are not new, I've read that they have issues since August or so (I thought it was USD, not USDT though).

They aren't new, but they tend to reappear at the worst possible moments.

[NeuroticFish]

Yet on the chart you can clearly see that USDT was losing value to USD and BTC, while BTC was rising against USD.
The loss of USDT value against USD clearly preceded the BTC/USD crash.

That's correct.

It is, and so is the number of longs, but it doesn't change the fact that it could have been responsible, or at least partially responsible for the crash.

The difference is too big. I don't hold the universal truth, but in my eyes they look unrelated.
August or so (I thought it was USD, not USDT though).

They aren't new, but they tend to reappear at the worst possible moments.

That's also correct. And also their volumes are big, so we can't just pretend it's not happening.
But again, then Bitcoin should have fallen in or since August..

[tdrinker]

I would like to suggest that if USDT were to fall in value independently that might help bitcoin in the short term, because a lot of pairs are USDT/BTC and people would have to offer more tether for one bitcoin. It might drag with it the other btc/usd pairs. At least until people realized that the reason was because of problems converting tether to usd.

[leavolnhals]

I've recently noticed this little thing. Might shed some light on the recent price action.




To explain, blue line is USDt/USD chart, orange line is BTC/USD. Note that BTC was slowly rising, but at some point on 13th November our so called "stablecoin" started to lose value to USD to the point where it dragged all cryptocurrencies down. I've seen people say that it's normal for USDt to lose value during a crypto crash, because it's after all another coin, and people are going through it to sell other cryptos, but this shows that it did not go down because people were selling, it went down when the price of Bitcoin was in fact rising. A whole day before the recent 15% crash.

Now, let me put my tinfoil hat on. On the same day, the 13th, we get this: https://cryptonews.com/news/bitfinex-users-struggle-with-fiat-withdrawal-2905.htm
Is Bitfinex messing up the price for us, or is it all just a coincidence?

Trading floors have different prices and so the manipulation is evolving in our market. This is a psychological battle. If you catch up with the whale's thoughts, you will definitely get rich soon. USDT / BTC is a great trick for many investors. They mistakenly think USDT is a fraud and bought a BTC at a very high price.

[mazdafunsun]

I think that USDT issues are not related to this fall. Actually when USDT started to have issues BTC gave the impression it have been rising (but it was rising only against USDT, not USD).
Also, now USDT seems to have been recovering, so it "would" be no reason for BTC to react like this.

Plus, Bitfinex liquidity / withdrawal issues are not new, I've read that they have issues since August or so (I thought it was USD, not USDT though).

[/quote]

Almost everyone have red the suspucions about USDT being involved in BTC pump a year ago, this is why they wont try it again ( if it was ture in the first place). I am keeping open mind on this matter, possibly they tried to manipulate the market to short BTC. This is just my speculation tough.

[alex_gr_cc]

I noticed this a year ago. There is nothing surprising. When the bitcoin falls, it means that everyone is buying USDT. Thus, the demand for USDT rises and its price rises.

[BitHodler]

Almost everyone have red the suspucions about USDT being involved in BTC pump a year ago, this is why they wont try it again ( if it was ture in the first place). I am keeping open mind on this matter, possibly they tried to manipulate the market to short BTC. This is just my speculation tough.

People never believe that Bitcoin can increase or decrease naturally. If it goes up it has to be related to manipulation, and the same applies to when the price goes down. This market is crazy to its core and driven by speculation.

Anyone can dump or pump the price as long as you have sufficient funds to do it with. Some times whales get excited and buy up the price, and some times they lose patience and dump the price overselling the market. Not a big deal.

I actually like that people can express their confidence or lack of confidence by buying or selling USDT, because it's the people doing it, not a central bank trying to dictate the market to have it play out in its advantage.

[pixie85]

I noticed this a year ago. There is nothing surprising. When the bitcoin falls, it means that everyone is buying USDT. Thus, the demand for USDT rises and its price rises.

I think that OP wasn't pointing out at USDT rising in value when Bitcoin is falling, but at USDT losing value before Bitcoin did. Like USDT was signalling an incoming selloff across the markets.
You're buying BTC with USDT every hour. Your BTC is rising in value to USD and your USDT losing value to USD every hour, like it did on the chart. What do you do? You stop buying BTC with USDT at a loss and dump all USDT.

[Micerker]

Bitcoin really affects all other Altcoin, but for USDT it does not change much. You can see that when the whole market dumps turn red but USDT increased because of buying surge and USDT decreased when the market returned to stable. We find that Bitcoin never affects it and this is just a coincidence.

[1Referee]

Plus, Bitfinex liquidity / withdrawal issues are not new, I've read that they have issues since August or so (I thought it was USD, not USDT though).

They aren't new, but they tend to reappear at the worst possible moments.

Bitfinex is definitely a dark cloud hanging above this market, but I'm not sure to what degree they are doing this on purpose.

I think the problems around Bitfinex's fiat withdrawals become more apparent during selloffs because more people are looking to cash out fiat. If during normal times people trying to cash out fiat already have problems, you can imagine what happens when the number of people cashing out goes x100 or even more during selloffs.

Looking at their cold wallet status, it looks like the worst part of the panicking is over, otherwise their cold wallet would continue to deflate as time goes by.

[jademaxxiss012]

USDT is created something uniquely and it even consider as a crypto where its market is almost having the same where it has its own market price volatility. The Crypto has no huge fluctuations and this maybe put to good use on holding or day trading with huge volumes of trade per day. Profits could be difficult to have if one has smaller volume of trades.