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Author Topic: BTC broke all major support lines, and the worse is yet to come.  (Read 1427 times)
mikeywith
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December 15, 2018, 07:43:51 PM
 #101

I don’t know if the market is still going to drop below this $3,401. I hope this is the bottom price. What most of us expected to happen this year, it just didn’t happen how we expected it to happen. I thought that by now there would have been a Bull, but instead the price keeps dropping and has circulating between $3.3k and $3.6k. I hope it doesn’t go below that and drop down to $2k,cause that wouldn’t be a good thing for the market.


there is nothing interesting about 3401, the actual support area is actually a little under it, it's 2900-3100 depending on the exchange and whether it is against USD or USDT.

also what matters now is the daily close, as we could easily have a wick all the way down to 2500-2600 and still close above 3000$, so what we should be looking at is a daily candle close, as long as we do not close below it, it makes more sense to buy, the moment we close below the support, we short the market with SL being above 3k as it will act as the new resistance. regardless of what type of a trader you are, i suggest you stick to larger frames when we approach the support area, because the volatility at the level can be crazy and many SLs will be hit,bang bang !

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December 16, 2018, 05:36:10 PM
 #102

I don’t know if the market is still going to drop below this $3,401. I hope this is the bottom price. What most of us expected to happen this year, it just didn’t happen how we expected it to happen. I thought that by now there would have been a Bull, but instead the price keeps dropping and has circulating between $3.3k and $3.6k. I hope it doesn’t go below that and drop down to $2k,cause that wouldn’t be a good thing for the market.


there is nothing interesting about 3401, the actual support area is actually a little under it, it's 2900-3100 depending on the exchange and whether it is against USD or USDT.

also what matters now is the daily close, as we could easily have a wick all the way down to 2500-2600 and still close above 3000$, so what we should be looking at is a daily candle close, as long as we do not close below it, it makes more sense to buy, the moment we close below the support, we short the market with SL being above 3k as it will act as the new resistance. regardless of what type of a trader you are, i suggest you stick to larger frames when we approach the support area, because the volatility at the level can be crazy and many SLs will be hit,bang bang !


And that's a very gloomy scenario but more likely to happen that us seeing the market surge. And last i checked, the green volume still doesn't look sturdy. Though many are saying that 3k line is a strong support. Hopefully it is.

 
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December 16, 2018, 08:23:11 PM
Merited by criptix (5)
 #103




waiting for a break out. Shocked

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December 17, 2018, 02:33:17 AM
 #104

I don’t know if the market is still going to drop below this $3,401. I hope this is the bottom price. What most of us expected to happen this year, it just didn’t happen how we expected it to happen. I thought that by now there would have been a Bull, but instead the price keeps dropping and has circulating between $3.3k and $3.6k. I hope it doesn’t go below that and drop down to $2k,cause that wouldn’t be a good thing for the market.


there is nothing interesting about 3401, the actual support area is actually a little under it, it's 2900-3100 depending on the exchange and whether it is against USD or USDT.

also what matters now is the daily close, as we could easily have a wick all the way down to 2500-2600 and still close above 3000$, so what we should be looking at is a daily candle close, as long as we do not close below it, it makes more sense to buy, the moment we close below the support, we short the market with SL being above 3k as it will act as the new resistance. regardless of what type of a trader you are, i suggest you stick to larger frames when we approach the support area, because the volatility at the level can be crazy and many SLs will be hit,bang bang !


And that's a very gloomy scenario but more likely to happen that us seeing the market surge. And last i checked, the green volume still doesn't look sturdy. Though many are saying that 3k line is a strong support. Hopefully it is.

depending on your goals, to me, i hope it does not hold due to 2 main reasons

1- for trading, it will be a very nice and easy trade, as the way down is very clear, unlike the way up which is now full of obstacles.
2- the lower the bottom the better the rally  Grin

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December 17, 2018, 08:28:07 PM
Merited by STT (1)
 #105




waiting for a break out. Shocked






nicely done, approaching resistance so getting ready to close my long position , i might open short positions should i see a reversal candle.

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December 17, 2018, 10:20:00 PM
 #106

This thing is very likely to happen, but we should not only be fixated and focus on the decline, but we must also be optimistic and believe that the value of bitcoin will certainly increase to meet the expectations of everyone involved in it.

If you're a trader optimism shouldn't be coming into it. You owe it to yourself to be pragmatic. If you believe it's going to carry on falling then do something to capitalise on it. When optimism returns, and there are few signs for now, go and unemotionally milk that instead.

That's right, I agree with what you have said, so "buying and HOLD" is something that other people and I have to do right now because this's the single most effective way to grow the price, and besides especially when BTC prices increase, surely we will also get a tremendous profit, I'm sure this will definitely happen.

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December 19, 2018, 01:05:05 AM
 #107

This thing is very likely to happen, but we should not only be fixated and focus on the decline, but we must also be optimistic and believe that the value of bitcoin will certainly increase to meet the expectations of everyone involved in it.

If you're a trader optimism shouldn't be coming into it. You owe it to yourself to be pragmatic. If you believe it's going to carry on falling then do something to capitalise on it. When optimism returns, and there are few signs for now, go and unemotionally milk that instead.

That's right, I agree with what you have said, so "buying and HOLD" is something that other people and I have to do right now because this's the single most effective way to grow the price, and besides especially when BTC prices increase, surely we will also get a tremendous profit, I'm sure this will definitely happen.


I have nothing against HODL if you know how to HODL, HODL takes skills too. you can do it if you have the patience to wait for years.

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December 25, 2018, 12:11:08 AM
 #108

  

i closed every single long position for now. should have closed right at the resistance especially with that shooting star forming on the 4H, but i got greedy and closed at 4% less profit, but still with overall about 20% profit from the falling wedge which is not bad.

why did i close my long positions ?

1-we are approaching the 4500$ strong resistance (bitfinex)
2- BTC has formed a kind of a rising wedge which if we break, we will dip to possibly 3750$
3- Bearish divergence and exhausted bulls starting to show on the trend.

what am i going to do next?

1- short the market if we break the wedge " SL will be a close above the breaking candle.

TP will be 3940, 3770   or manual close should any bullish signal appear on the chart.

2- il long the market if we the 4h candle break above the red resistance and close above, it will be safe to buy with SL being a candle close below the resistance which will then act as a support.

TP will be 4800, 5400 or a manual close if things go south.

*tho i doubt scenario 2 is going to happen, but if it does, we gotta take some very nice profit because the run will be quick.



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December 25, 2018, 12:26:14 AM
 #109

Aaaand support lines keep getting broken it seems. I thought a new week would see us recover from that sudden plunge but the trend hasn't changed. Hopefully you're wrong dude but current happenings point out to exactly what you said.
for all traders must always be optimistic.
 if you see that the current developments may still not be good, then we must rearrange new techniques in trading.
maybe we can make a long-term trade to prevent sharp losses, or if the situation still hasn't changed, then we can get out of the trade first, we can wait for prices to move up.
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December 25, 2018, 03:06:24 AM
 #110

 

i closed every single long position for now. should have closed right at the resistance especially with that shooting star forming on the 4H, but i got greedy and closed at 4% less profit, but still with overall about 20% profit from the falling wedge which is not bad.

why did i close my long positions ?

1-we are approaching the 4500$ strong resistance (bitfinex)
2- BTC has formed a kind of a rising wedge which if we break, we will dip to possibly 3750$
3- Bearish divergence and exhausted bulls starting to show on the trend.

what am i going to do next?

1- short the market if we break the wedge " SL will be a close above the breaking candle.

TP will be 3940, 3770   or manual close should any bullish signal appear on the chart.

2- il long the market if we the 4h candle break above the red resistance and close above, it will be safe to buy with SL being a candle close below the resistance which will then act as a support.

TP will be 4800, 5400 or a manual close if things go south.

*tho i doubt scenario 2 is going to happen, but if it does, we gotta take some very nice profit because the run will be quick.






say TA is b.s   Grin.

closed partial of my short position, moved SL to break even. currently at local support 3940$.  we could bounce from here, but am not going to open any longs just yet, will add more shorts if we break 3940.

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December 25, 2018, 03:51:12 AM
 #111

from the graph you gave it was terrible because the price could fall whenever it could happen, you should be able to learn from the 2017 price increase until the end of 2018, there will be no coins that always have a price move to go up, so you should be careful .
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December 25, 2018, 11:18:06 AM
 #112

If we closely take a look on the graph, there is a certain thing that signifies. It signifies that we cant predict the market trend, even we created a lot like these seem still we dont know. If we compare the current chart we have now, still far away from what it have since from the start. Personal adoption into the market still be our option to survive.


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December 28, 2018, 12:53:35 AM
 #113

 

i closed every single long position for now. should have closed right at the resistance especially with that shooting star forming on the 4H, but i got greedy and closed at 4% less profit, but still with overall about 20% profit from the falling wedge which is not bad.

why did i close my long positions ?

1-we are approaching the 4500$ strong resistance (bitfinex)
2- BTC has formed a kind of a rising wedge which if we break, we will dip to possibly 3750$
3- Bearish divergence and exhausted bulls starting to show on the trend.

what am i going to do next?

1- short the market if we break the wedge " SL will be a close above the breaking candle.

TP will be 3940, 3770   or manual close should any bullish signal appear on the chart.

2- il long the market if we the 4h candle break above the red resistance and close above, it will be safe to buy with SL being a candle close below the resistance which will then act as a support.

TP will be 4800, 5400 or a manual close if things go south.

*tho i doubt scenario 2 is going to happen, but if it does, we gotta take some very nice profit because the run will be quick.







3770 TP reached, nice little profit.


going long now, 3600-3700 is a good support, potential H&S formation

SL : 3650

TP 1 :3970
TP 2 :4250



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December 28, 2018, 03:07:11 AM
 #114

 

i closed every single long position for now. should have closed right at the resistance especially with that shooting star forming on the 4H, but i got greedy and closed at 4% less profit, but still with overall about 20% profit from the falling wedge which is not bad.

why did i close my long positions ?

1-we are approaching the 4500$ strong resistance (bitfinex)
2- BTC has formed a kind of a rising wedge which if we break, we will dip to possibly 3750$
3- Bearish divergence and exhausted bulls starting to show on the trend.

what am i going to do next?

1- short the market if we break the wedge " SL will be a close above the breaking candle.

TP will be 3940, 3770   or manual close should any bullish signal appear on the chart.

2- il long the market if we the 4h candle break above the red resistance and close above, it will be safe to buy with SL being a candle close below the resistance which will then act as a support.

TP will be 4800, 5400 or a manual close if things go south.

*tho i doubt scenario 2 is going to happen, but if it does, we gotta take some very nice profit because the run will be quick.







3770 TP reached, nice little profit.


going long now, 3600-3700 is a good support, potential H&S formation

SL : 3650

TP 1 :3970
TP 2 :4250




Right now the bitcoin price is nearby 3600+ below your SL:3650, so i think your SL  got triggered as in most of the exchanges the price is down below 3600 level. So what will be the next position to take in the market.

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December 28, 2018, 11:46:47 PM
 #115

Right now the bitcoin price is nearby 3600+ below your SL:3650, so i think your SL  got triggered as in most of the exchanges the price is down below 3600 level. So what will be the next position to take in the market.



price did not go below 3686$ on bitfenx. it's important the you treat each exchange differently, and stick to the one you use.

> https://cryptowat.ch/markets/bitfinex/btc/usd

on binance price was as low as 3540$ because that's BTCUSDT. the point here is to use the support line as your SL, regardless of what the numbers show.

if you look at my chart, you see a green line at 3689.3$ that was the support line that was supposed to hold the price, and price bounced just about 70 cents above it.

on the exchange that had 3550$ then that support line was at the price.

the support line is drawn based on the prev support 25 and 27 nov , and as Resistance on 9 dec and 17 dec. it is a very critical level and it will look almost the same on as a whole on any exchange, but the prices will be different.

also you should not refer to SL as per exact number " as i explained in my prev posts", i do not set auto SL, i set Auto TP but not SL. you need to wait for at least an hour candle close below the support, you set a price alert on trading-view , you get and email or sms when prices crosses that target, you then wait for the candle close, if it closes below you exist, if not you don't.

but if you know you are way too far from your pc /phone and won't be able to react, then you may set an automatic SL.

i hope you understand.

as for the next steps, i closed half of my potions at TP1 , waiting for 4250 on biftnex with my SL changing to close below 3800 because 3800 is now a new local support that should hold the price up.

Good luck.

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January 07, 2019, 11:29:20 PM
 #116

if you want to learn how to enter a good trade read this > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5093916.msg49106511#msg49106511

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February 11, 2019, 07:12:41 PM
 #117




wait for a break-out , go long. set TP and SL .

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February 11, 2019, 09:29:38 PM
 #118



wait for a break-out , go long. set TP and SL.

true that. a bart top is still possible here, but that looks like a solid setup.

bigger picture, do you see us breaking $4200 (the december 23 high)? i'm thinking so. it looks to me like the start of C in a typical ABC. but i'm wondering if i'm getting ahead of myself.....

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February 11, 2019, 11:23:39 PM
 #119

bigger picture, do you see us breaking $4200 (the december 23 high)? i'm thinking so. it looks to me like the start of C in a typical ABC. but i'm wondering if i'm getting ahead of myself.....

we have a more important level to break anyway. below is Binance chart, it's btcusdT, so it's a bit different from other exchanges.



there is a very strong downtrend line that the bulls need to break, price will most likely not close above it, 3777$ seems to be it for this leg,
and it will head to test the uptrend line at about 3440$.

a break out to either direction will be a good trade, but i don't see this happening soon, it will probably be by next month, but should we break out to one direction, you don't wanna miss that.

if we break the triangle up, very likely we will break the 4200 but 4700-4800 will be it for Q1 and Q2

look at the bigger picture on the weekly chart


we have got the 20MA , a trend line and a horizontal resistance to break, being on the weekly charts, this only indicates that we need months of side-ways to break that, testing the trend line at 4700$ will unlikely break it,the bulls will probably be exhausted at those levels, the bulls need to bring those resistances to their zone, and this can be only done through a long extended period of sideways between the low of 3200 and those resistances.

here is an more detailed explanation > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49569375#msg49569375

if you are not a big fan of comparing old charts to current, just read the concept, every technical aspect points to the fact that this is nothing but a sucker rally that is going to be sold real fast.

and this of course based on the assumption that we have actually bottom, because if we have not, things are 3 times worse, assuming we bottomed thins still look bad for the bulls and the lambo guys, i am almost certain that nothing really interesting for the bulls is going to happen before at least Sep 2019.    

hirngespenst
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February 11, 2019, 11:48:02 PM
 #120

And the worst part can be under the 3K USD of Bitcoin! Bitcoin has broken all the support lines since August 2018 I think, and it continues! Actually, I want to see BTC under 3K USD very soon, because without crossing that line I don't think Bitcoin price can go up! Sometimes I can't believe that Bitcoin price is 3500 USD where I thought it can't go under 5K USD! But I have a strong belief that after breaking all the lines, Bitcoin price will create a new line in a positive way.

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