Bitcoin Forum

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A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

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From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.

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24/11/2018  9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.

currently btc is trading at  3940$ on binance .

we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.


as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.

Aaaand support lines keep getting broken it seems. I thought a new week would see us recover from that sudden plunge but the trend hasn't changed. Hopefully you're wrong dude but current happenings point out to exactly what you said.

we will most likely have some sort of correction to 5450-5700 before attempting another low. unless BTC makes a daily close above 7500 , it will always be safer to short it. many people keep their eyes closed and waiting for 20k again , i know not every is a trader. but it really does pay off when you sell high and buy low. my plan is to get more BTC shorting it, not to get more fiat. as i am pretty sure BTC will sky rocket. but it's just not now. not until 2020.

This is serious and I think $4950 is the next support level.  The market capitalization of the cryptocurrencies has also fall to $168billion . It seems the market is taking the way it went up last year and it might been heading towards $3000. This time last year I didn't think I have a thought that bitcoin is going to fall to this level and I was even saying and analyzing that the lowest it will go is $10,000.$20,000 is not possible this year again.  We are praying for bitcoin to go above $7000 before end of the year.  If bitcoin recovered next week then I believe that is going to get above $6,000.

Watching the price go down with fiat in your pockets always feels good.

My current buy targets;

>$4000<$4500
>$3000<$3500 BIG

It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will fall down that much, and in case of the sub $4000 target it might take weeks or months to reach that price, but that's my plan. I went long on Bitmex just now because the price has been oversold and I expect some form of a recovery, probably back to $5500 to later fall back down.

I'm counting on 4900. We have strong support there! The price will definitely stay there for a while. Next, I also expect positive news that will give a new impetus, and after we will be able to fall below the levels of 4200 - 4300$. I am definitely sure that we will gain a foothold below the weekly trend. $ 4261 is the level of 0.786 Fibonacci and in my opinion the rebound will be from this price!

There should be some horizontal support here at the $4,800-$4,900 area. But price is still grinding down without a sign of seller exhaustion. This is really quite the selloff...... lots of momentum here!

If we manage a bounce soon, I assume selling near $5,500 will be a good bet. There's a lot of resistance to work through. Ultimately, I'm eyeing the long term uptrend line from 2016. It's standing at $3,800 and rising.

Breaking lower the 4900 <-- not 4900 but if price falls below 4000, it will be a very bad moment. There is no doubt it will cause massive panic in people and a lot of them will sell bitcoin, which, in fact will speed up fall process instead of recovery. On another hand we have miners, they need profitable mining, maybe big players will still mine while bad prices but there is no doubt it will rise soon, at least on point where mining will be profitable.

I don't think any of the current traders think even a second about what miners are going through. Price doesn't follow miner demand, miners follow price action and adjust themselves by adding or removing hashrate.

CNBC Brian Kelly at $5500 said he bought in, which usually is a bad sign, and it turned out to be. Right now CNBC expects the price to drop significantly lower, and these statements usually mean the opposite.

Let's give it a day or so to see if they are still the perfect counter benchmark. For what it's worth, the market seems like it has been sold out like mad, which usually translates into a mild recovery.

It should be on the chart the lowest price is above $4900, based on the horizontal line in the picture above, but the price is already under $4900? is the current condition of bitcoin getting worse? I hope that positive news will quickly come and hold the price of bitcoin to down, because it's very bad for all of us..

Charts now are pure bullshit, we have here a big dump the will be followed for a bigger buy force that will put us in a huge bull run, never seen im history before.

Ya right  ;D

Seeing the current conditions is very likely to drop to below 4000, and certainly will cause panic, at the moment I just keep on monitoring the market, it might start entering the market when prices are below 4500. Many expect prices to improve in 2019 it might happen but not in the early months.

Doesn't the fact that bitcoin went below these "support lines" argue against the validity of using TA to trade?  I'm a long-time skeptic of technical analysis, and this just shows me that the market does what it wants with no regard to these fancy voodoo TA techniques and terms.

You got that right, although I'd argue that "the world" is hardly even aware that there are any cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin.  It's a very small population of people who are even aware of these shitcoins, ICO scams, and now this hash war thing.  Shitcoins are destined to crash to zero--or at least most of them are, and I don't need TA to verify that for me.  One of these days people are going to wake up and realize that no merchant is ever going to accept them and there's no practical use for them, not even as a store of value because of the extreme volatility.

well indeed the market does what it wants to do, it does not really react to charts, but charts react to price.  we as TA people in most cases see the same chart and think that same thoughts, when price broke the trend line bottom which was about 5900$ i personally sold out, and obviously i was not alone in this as my whole worth of btc is not even 0.00000000000000001% of the market cap. but it does accumulate with other traders. causes the panic and price dips.

fundamentals are of course way stronger than Technical, if tomorrow satoshi comes out and prove himself and say BTC is scam, no support and no TA will hold btc from going to 0. on the other hand if we get ETF approved, prices will care less about any Resistance on the chart and will shot to surpass ATH.

but in normal market condition TA does work "not all the time tho :D " . and if you use it right, you simply end up with more BTC in your wallet.

cheers.

If nothing else it's a fine demonstration that TA is a crock of shit.

There have been plenty of people calling for sub 3 grand lows which is fair enough. I did not see one single example of a prediction for this particular brutality.

+1000

Yeah we need to be realistic, the broken support line seems going to make more panic situation for every traders, and I believe this is not the end of falling, but everything is just speculation, with this unstable market there are possibilities that the market is going to turn over sooner, so its important ti not fall into the fud news and start the panic sell

A huge amount of different people who are supposedly great at technical analysis have repeatedly got their price predictions wrong.  It certainly feels like any successful predictions they're making are by chance.

I don't think technical indicators are really very useful for predicting the Bitcoin price.  They're very overused.

The Support lines were broken all of sudden. This is not natural dump at all. I think it was manipulation by the big whales who want us to be panic and sell in panic. Once people will sell in panic, those whales will buy back all in cheap.

Cryptos slowly cascading into the realm where Technical Analysis don't determine price actions. For crash that was grossly manipulated, TA don't play any role in determining how high or low it would go. I mean at the ATH $20K, no TA specialist will boast of prediction prices to get those levels.

I think the supporting lines are just getting preparing for what is we are waiting for, the bull run. It is not panic that caused the trader and holder to sell so but the urge to push the bitcoin on its trigger point for skyrocketing. Bitcoin will not fall down as it already has the place to reign for so many more years even the market is really unstable. Market will bounce and that's for sure.

FOr a trader they should react for this kind of news in my opinion because we are predicting that the price not yet hit the bottom so it makes no sense to hold or buy more coins for traders so they should sell it and wait for the bottom to buy it back.I hope the bottom will not be too far from the current prices if not then the crypto market takes huge time period to get back the the cap same values as 2017.

Bitcoin has been defying all sorts of technical analysis right from onset thus its more of fundamentall analysis tends to be inclined to its Price Actions whenever there is a massive dump major support lines are easily broken by the price thus sending a wrong signals for TA traders that is why I prefers forex trading to crypto trading.

The next major support based on trading view analysis is around 4100$ and if it breaks to 3000$ channel , It could goes back around 2500 once more , and that would be tragic!

As long as it's rapid and brutal enough I could live with it. What would suck enormously is if it took month after nothing month to get there. That could be all too conceivable sadly.

I agreed, this is a sudden dump after a long side trend, it seems manipulation by big whales, people will start selling in panic and it will become a good chance for these whales to buy it at cheap price, BTC will recover soon or later, it make take from some months to year, we should remain patient.

That's true, but still I am optimistic about the future. All it takes is a major trigger and the prices can easily cross the five-digit mark. Miracles can happen... such as an ETF approval from the SEC, or legalization in China.

" BTC broke all major support lines, and the worse is yet to come. "

the worst is yet to come? we fall from $ 6500 to $ 4500, is that not the worst?


2900-3100?

this will be very bad, if the price drops to $3100 we will see a big panic sale and it will be very bad, I hope this does not happen and that the price stay above  $5000

I can't see the purpose of such posts except to spread the panic. Of course that everything is possible with Bitcoin price but so far there are no indicators that would point to such big dump. And as far as panic selling is concerned we can see that now already.

If bitcoins keep breaking support lines in the next three consecutive support lines, then the hope of bitcoin resurrecting will be death. The worst has already begin with the fork of Bitcoin cash which has shake the crypto market.

It doesn't have to be all that bad, because I am sure that ~$3000 is where bots will start to pool up so much buy support, that it very well may turn out to be the bottom. If you look at the charts of last year august/september, that's the level where the price found a bottom after a pretty harsh selloff tanking the price from $5000 to $3000.

The positive side of this selloff is that it grants investors certain taxation advantages, which somewhat makes me think that we won't be seeing any noteworthy increase this year.

I no longer plan to spend anything on black friday sales, but solely use my fiat to buy myself some more coins. Bitcoin at these levels offers more bang for your bucks.

the only value that BTC can't go to is a negative number. anything from 0 to million is technically possible. when btc dropped from 19k to 10k we thought it was the bottom ! , 6k we were like okay this is the very bottom.

identifying the bottom is really difficult. but one thing for sure. as long as we are above 7500$ "prev high" , we are still in a bear market any there is no limit for how low we can go. but i am placing my bet on 2900-3100 to be the bottom of this bear market, somewhere around mid to end of 2019.

many users still continue to dream of crypto and are trapped in a complex set of trends so they find it hard to think logically, when the crypto price drops seriously they cry and make panic sales. Current issues that overwrite crypto force all users to be more selective in choosing which crypto continues to be good and the ecosystem will eliminate many unproductive crypto to scam

Nit only you expecting bitcoin will stay strong at price value 6000$ upto 6600$ before end of the year 2018
The contrate barrier of bitcoin will completely crack came from the people support
Well its part of volatile currency nibidy can control
All we had to do is kept faith and stay cooll to forget all stress

Yeah i feel it too that there is still more worst for this current price will come like if ETF products will be rejected again, the SEC is hunting down crypto related projects that are questionable and the increasing hacked exchanges all over the world. So brace yourselves so that we could endure the worst.

I also think like you, another time it will go down, or collapse, everything will collapse

I do keep on saying this, there is no "support line" or "resistance" or anything in bitcoin.
You look at some charts and think that there is, but in reality you are very very much wrong. There is no chart, there is no indicator, there is no support line or resistance.

There are only whales. If a whale comes in and buys 2-3 billion dollar worth of bitcoin in the span of a week, do you know what will happen ? Next week the price will be $10k+ easily.

There is no indicator or support line for "2-3 billion dollar worth of bitcoin bought out of nowhere and none of us expected it". What could happen when someone sells billions of dollars in bitcoin is something we already saw this week so there is no need for an example. So you see, all those things you read on those charts are worthless, it all depends on couple rich people doing something.

At the beginning of the year, many people waited at the end of 2018 for a repetition of last year’s bitcoin price increase. Initially, it was clear that after last year’s jump in prices, the market would not recover so quickly. The market is cyclical. Many draw conclusions based on their hopes, not from arguments.

If we look at bitcoin journey from 2017 to 2018 it might be shocked, but look from 2009, this is not a strange thing where bitcoin falls after ATH in certain years. It is possible to recover in 2019, but indeed 2018 is a year that is quite heavy compared to 2017

This market goes on a cycle. No one expects the 'brutality' that we're going to encounter at the end of the year. Support lines are broken, sellers out number buyers, panic creates more panic and we don't know when this will be over. I personally thought that $5000 support will not be broken, I guess I'm wrong.

And I understand some losing hope. But if you're really in for the long haul, this is far the best opportunity for everyone to be a bagholder. If by chance it went below $4000 and nothing is buying, then I don't know, we don't need to wait further as those are good buying point.

As far as I remembered back into previous months were most people do speculate that 5400 would already be the strongest support yet we are tanking on the price of 6k+
up and possible decrease wont really go below on the support range but look at  we now.We did break the lowest support of 4400 and dropping even more lower. Next would be 3300
if dumping would continue then trust and confidence will surely be affected.

a lot of fraud in the crypto business makes people bored to reinvest, and I think, people who are losing money in crypto trading and those who have been deceived in the ICO scam business have traumatized them, not to touch the crypto business anymore, so that asset prices on the market going down,

I am afraid if people are no longer interested in bitcoin and cause the price of Bitcoin to collapse violently, so what will the fate of Bitcoin be in the future.

I've always been fascinated by the concept of 'support'. Where does it come from? Who decides? Why is it even a thing?

I've never believed in it. If there's gains to be made by pissing all over commonly accepted barriers then you can bet your bippy someone's going to do it.

It used to be taken as stone cold fact that Bitcoin never went below its previous all time high. Post late 2013 no one mentioned the possibility it would go below $266 yet it did by over $100. This is why I don't think there's any point in making strong assumptions about possible bottoms, especially months in advance which is what these support levels are.

Or we can even conclude that at this point in time, TA is not really applicable because the market is driven by market sentiments. I agree, we never thought that "X" and "Y" price could not be broken but look at where we are right now. All TA's are out of the window, except for those who are claiming that they have predicted this downtrend as early as 2018. So moral lesson here, TA might not work in the long run including support or resistance levels.

I totally agree with you. I have always said that technical analysis is practically useless for crypto exchange markets. The actions of price manipulators are unpredictable.



I guess that the Bitcoin miners already collected too many coins and they decided to sell BTC in order to pay for electricity or reimburse other expenses.

It also does matter that the Bitcoin inflation is still high. Every day the miners receive about 1800 new BTC coins. To only stabilize the price, it is needed to buy $4400 * 1800 = about $8 millions each day. In fact, the mining industry is centralized in China by several mining pools. It goes without saying, they can crash crypto exchange markets by simultaneously selling a huge amount of coins.

The demand is not there and it seems like there is an over-supply of the coins. The situation will only improve if the big players resume their purchases. And that looks unlikely for the next 1-2 years.

A lot of expectations were put on bitcoin hitting 20k+ this year ending. It only took bitcoin few weeks to brrsk all major support Lines holding it for months. There are those who said we must see 3k before something good will happen.  With all indications, it shows that the price of BTC is heading to 3k.

24/11/2018  9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.

currently btc is trading at  3940$ on binance .

we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.


as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.

About 1 month recently, the cryptocurrency market has been making my surprise. The fluctuating of the exchange rate and the sharp decrease is always. BTC has broken all about support zone, and I think it will continue to decrease in the next day because of the panic sell of the investors.

It would be hilarious if the $3000 level (which most people have so much confidence in) turns out to be nothing but a wall of paper sellers easily burn through with their fierce selling pressure.

Don't forget that plenty of stop loss orders will be lined up just under or over $2900 which might tempt whales to troll the market even further by triggering these orders. It pays off to set up buy orders well below that level just in case. If they are triggered, you at least made sure to have bought coins well below that support level you probably wouldn't be able to buy at by doing it manually.

Thanks for the analysis. Everything is very sensibly described. I anticipate a similar situation, but still hoped for a rebound. Now I take note of the new information.

For those who believe that charts and technical analysis is nonsense, I want to ask: What are you guided by when doing price movement analysis?

I think that I can’t wait for an answer, so I just want to write. Only technical analysis and charts can give a real idea of ​​the market situation and price movement. Without them, you generally will not have any idea about the possible movement of prices.

if that level does not hold, you simply get out of the market and wait for the next support at 1800$, also what you mentioned is right, i assume a wise man won't go balls deep at any level,i will always keep fiat just in case. but one thing for sure is the SL hunting, i don't usually set a SL, i wait for a candle close of 4H at least. i literately rode every way up of the prev large triangle. i knew for sure i would sell the moment it breaks, but i never sat a SL, i waited for a candle to close and it always closed above the trend line so i was never worried, the only time i did exist was the time i published this topic. it was a huge candle closed below support, and it was a very clear sign for more dip. so my advice is to always wait for a candle close to avoid most of the manipulation.





i can answer for them :D. those people do not look at the charts , they buy BTC whenever they feel like it and whenever they have the cash, and keep waiting for ATH, the moon boys and the hodlers will sell at 20k this is one thing for sure, but you know what's going to happen later? btc will go to 40k only then they will decide to buy, by then we going to sell at 40k and wait for them to give it back at 20k.

I really do not know the beef you guys have with TA, but TA is never a croc of shit!! Take it or leave it, once you understand the volatility of the market and you know what you are doing, the benefit of TA is to guide you and not to tell you exactly what will take place in the future.

Maybe I should start with the economical term of TA;

It is just an analysis bro and to identify trading opportunities, it is not a price prediction or some voodoo shit. This is basically also one of the reasons why a lot of newbies as well approach the market without thinking of using stop loss management. We are all retail traders, trying to feed off the whales manipulation, take it or leave it, TA is just there to let us know what we need to know about the market.

"It is just an analysis bro and to identify trading opportunities, it is not a price prediction or some voodoo shit. This is basically also one of the reasons why a lot of newbies as well approach the market without thinking of using stop loss management. We are all retail traders, trying to feed off the whales manipulation, take it or leave it, TA is just there to let us know what we need to know about the market."

This.

I am a newbie at trading and i totally agree with what he said...... and in my opinion, BTC falling this "low" is a good thing...... there will be a buying point or might I say a re-buying entry point for mass people that will trigger .....well, something. But that just my opinion. ETH is kind of getting there.

Cheers to all, much love, stay safe and don't hate my first comment.

Today it broke 4000$ , now struggling to rise above it but I don't think it can , next support is around 3800$ , Let's hope it doesn't break that or it would go to 3000$ , it all happened in one week from 6300$ to 3800$ , hows that possible?!

Although shitcoin always has a bad impact and only under 1% of the total has a positive value (can be applied in daily activities) but indeed the most influential is this hash war. They always fuss about selfishness, arrogance and their belief that with this hardfork, they are still confident that they can bring crypto forward more advanced, but the impact that has occurred to date is 180 degrees.
What's your opinion about those thing ?

the bears are losing moment, a bullish divergence is starting to show on the charts, but the volume is still low, and I do not think this is the beginning for the rally but rather a correction, i will be looking for  short signals. i could be wrong that's one thing for sure, but what it makes more sense to short the market now,at this point we will see many bull traps, a good 5-15% increase , people start thinking this is it, they go all in ,  and get liquidated.

unless you are buying for the long term, then it's stupid to long now. but if you are just trying to hunt for bottom then it makes sence to buy every dip with small positions, so that your average buying price will be reasonable.but if you are a day trader, then you will be set for bull traps, the low 4k will most likely be the new resistance for now, hard to break to the up side, of course when i say break i mean at least a 4hr candle close and not a 1 or 5 mins candles.

but overall , the bulls are coming back, i do think the 3500 support is starting to become strong but it might not sustain, am still looking for 2.9-3.1k . but i will buy again at 3.4k to 3.6k if the i see similar rejection to the last one.

It seems as if TA is in valid at this moment.  Crypto is just moving in a direction we all cant understand at the moment.  Hopefully after this bearish season comes the but run

if you are a day trader , or learning how to trade i suggest you give this a look > http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/price-action-trading-forex?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6rOkxrXw3gIVZ7vtCh33Rww1EAAYASAAEgLn4_D_BwE


the easiest and the best strategy is the simplest one. i tried every indicator and other methods, but to me, the basic support/resistance lines with the basic price action is the most accurate. as nothing is 100% correct all the time, but if used right, you will most likely succeed.

this not a financial advice what so ever, trade at your own risk.

Of course, TA does not work in such situations on the cryptocurrency market. At this moment, the fear has the greatest power and push investors to take decisions. At the moment the least experienced players lose the most. When "weak hends" sell everything - prices will start to grow.

In the chart showing above, I think bitcoin will continuously going down also. If the next support line will break, I assume that there is a tremendous decrease in the price of bitcoin. Due to the current situation of the market, I avoid to buy cryptocurrencies. I don't know where and when I will start again but for now, I just want to be silent in trading.

I see a lot of people supporting the 3k area, and I have a feeling that 3k will eventually break and we will see a short flash crash (true capitulation). No idea where that ultimate bottom will be though.

People are generally wrong when it comes to crypto. If enough of them believe something will happen, it likely won't, and let $3000 be exactly what people aim for. It will either drop well below that mark, or bottom out well above it.

The latter is somewhat of a fact with how the price briefly dipped under $3500 today, and it's now waiting for support around $4000 to hold firm. Without a whale unloading thousands of coins at once it's doable.

It requires one spark to get people to fomo in, and when they start to believe the bottom is in, believe me, they will fomo in. I can't say how sustainable that growth will be, but at least it's a major contributor to a more positive sentiment.

People, regardless of how much risk they exposed themselves to, are going through a horrible time right now. I hope it will end soon.

couldn't agree more, finding a perfect bottom is usually impossible, that is why you need to buy close to where you think that is. if you sold the break out of the triangle, then you are already in profit, and the best thing to do as i said a few times before , is to buy in portions. that 3000$ might not be the bottom, it could be 2500$ or 3500$ for that matter. 

I see some very smart answers in here... congrats on that!
What we forget too many times is that of course the best is to buy absolute low and sell absolute high, but this will probably never happen, so there is big chunk in between where real money is made. So yes we are currently getting into low levels, nobody knows where bottom will be, but buying at prices 3 - 4k$ seems very reasonable for a longer term. Spare something in case we go below 3000, it doesn't have to be much, just something to feel better when you buy at 2000 :D

So whoever is buying at the moment he is doing at least something right : He recognised major cycles well, as we are close to bottom. And this is, afterall, the most important!

For me the current situations looks like a good time to buy. We are risking, it's trading, it's crypto market, everything is uncertain and volatile. Sure, BTC could resume its falls. Momentum remains to the downside, despite the recovery. But we aren't focusing on the coming few weeks only, right? As a theoty, whales that have accumulated Bitcoin outside the exchanges are dumping it on the market to trigger a broader sell and to push prices down. And after prices dropped sharply, they will accumulate some more and eventually push prices higher. So, summing up, no panic selling for me. I'm holding what I have and planning to buy more.

This is what I've scared of. When bitcoin will fall down, I assume it will recover but I do not when it could be. There is no momentum for cryptocurrency as of now and we are all waiting for a news that will make the market green. Leaving cryptocurrency is such a fool decision, we must be positive no matter what happens.

so the low 4k area did really become resistance, and we did bounce from there, i shorted at 4100 and am closing my position now at 3792.

the bulls started to show some strength, the 3500-3700 will become a strong support. since the fall no level held the price like this, so it's making me a bit worried about shorting atm. following Binance chart any close 4 hr close below 3700 will be a good short signal.

the worse has begun to come, the price has gone down some days to reach $ 3800, I think there will be a lot of investors going away because they have been waiting to start at the beginning of the year when prices continue to decline slowly and now they are falling far. this is not good for all and hopefully the market will improve soon and crypto has its glory again as soon as possible

To be successful you should not think like the average person, for the average person BTC is done, and it is never going to 20k again, the smart investors have been looking for cheap crypto since last year. i am almost certain that we are pretty close to the bottom, so unless you are a day trader, then this is pretty much the wrong time to sell, most people bought btc for 8-10-15k and they are selling it now to cut loss! it's very stupid that they have waited this long and giving up now.

what I am worried about is a few months of side-ways market where price would be ranging from 2-6k for months if not years before the bull run starts, more people will fold , but those who hang in there are going to get the reward.

this is not a financial advice by any means, but buying btc from 2 to 4k is something you will never regret in 3 years from now.

seconded. the moment i saw bitcoin floating on $6k-$7k, i start to plan to accumulate more. now drop another 3k. it is like on black friday sales. its good to shake off weak hands, end of 2017 do alot of damage to the market. panic sell now is not a smart move.

The chart of the bitcoin is becoming good again, the price of the bitcoin reached $4000 per each again. There are now major support lines that can ensure that the bitcoin will not fall under $4000 per each again.

Miner is also in this condition, in a very big loss position. All players seem to start having to think twice about entry, given that the recent events have taken place quite to the surprise of many. However, this condition is sure that it only applies temporarily

i have to disagree, the chart of bitcoin still look very bearish. i am not giving you any exact entries what so ever, but i suggest you be careful and do not fomo.

as for the support lines , the strongest support BTC had by far is the 5800-6200 area, that was the only support one could bet on, held well for the whole year, the 4k support is nothing, we could pass through it like a hot knife through butter. the only support before 2700-3100$ is the recent low of 3600$.

should we continue to go up (unlikely) the 5800 will be the strongest resistance ever, you will be surprised about the selling pressure coming on the way.

And what you just said is basically the mistake a lot of people tend to make with TA. The fact that TA is there does not mean it is going to tell you exactly what will happen, it is there to guide you and nothing else which is why there would not be a TA without a stop loss. TA is not some voodoo shit that will predict the future for you and until people started realizing that before they will understand better.

Anyone who thinks TA is bullshit, should attempt trading the market without the understanding of the market. At least, this makes it simple, as the market has broken a major support, then you look for the price action in the next support, while shorting the market at that point. Plain simple!

It is most definitely a very good time to buy; there is no doubt about that. One thing I am sure of is that we have a market that is growing daily and is giving a chance to everyone to not have a chance to be a part of it.

It is just very unfortunate that instead of some people to be seeing the good side to getting into the market now, they are busy seeing the things they should not be seeing which is making them all panicky and then missing out on great opportunities like we are having now. The worse may be yet to come, but rather than approaching FUD as a problem, it is always better to approach it as an opportunity.

 opportunity ? FUD ? huh ! what are you talking about. i am not satoshi and bitcoin is not my wife. I want to make $$ . i don't know why are you into crypto if not for that ! . when i said the worst is yet to come and sold all of my btc the price was about 5.7k , it went like 37% down. if i wana buy all in right now, it means i am getting 25% discount. should the price go to back to 5.7k again " the time i started the FUD' i would have at least 36% more btc. if i catch another low, i get even more BTC.

there is no FUD here,i am just an average dude and most people who read my shit are average folks with tiny to no impact on the market, i will always SELL btc whenever the chance is there, i could care less where is it going to the next month or year, my target is to get as many BTC as i can before the bull run begins. cheers

Did you see the volume today? It was 6.5 billion! That's almost 10% of overall market cap. Is that a signal in TA?

High volume with no significant increase in price is usually a sign for reversal, and still i do not really give volume that much of a thought, i use plain support / resistance and price action

Based on which exchanges?

On the exchanges I watch (Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Bitmex), volume was down yesterday vs. the day before. There's been decent volume on this bounce overall, but it still doesn't compare to the dumps earlier in the month. I was hoping to see a higher volume bottom, to be honest.

ok it was not exactly 6.5B , but anyway he means the total volume of major exchanges which is calculated by coinmarketcap.

here https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

A lot of investors has been quitting, this is really frustrating as people keep losing money day by day. Bull run has been predicted a lot of times but what we see every time is not we expect, it’s always the opposite of everything and the price has dropped low to $3735. I don’t even think there will be bull run like some are still predicting on December. I’m looking forward to next year as someone once predicted.

Who really cares when? What matters is now and what matters in the long run is the future. I know things may be a little bit scary for some, but in the real sense, what is there to be scared of? We have a market that is certainly saying I have a lot of goodies to give out in the short term at very good price and then we have some people who are just busy forgetting the fact that the market's future is still very great and instead of taking advantage of it now, they are busy getting themselves worried over a market that is low in value just in the short term. If people cannot be taking advantage now, I wonder when they will

The volume is still better than what it used to be before all of this happened because people (specially the rich people) have been gathering bitcoin from these prices thinking it is a good low price to get to be prepared for the future. Do you know what tells ?

People believe that 4 thousand dollars is a much better place to buy compared to 6 thousand dollars, which tells me the price is barely moving anymore downwards because if it did there would be even more volume to buy, if people think 6 thousand dollars is a decent price point to get into and believe that 4 thousand is even greater don't you think same people would say it is AMAZING to buy from 3 thousand as well ? Of course there is still bad things going around and it would be really hard to convince people otherwise but we need to see the good in bad as well.

The breakdown of important support levels should be expected because the trend is too steep up we have seen in recent years.
The reason for the breakdown in my opinion was the situation with the constant transfer of the date for ETF futures. The uptrend lasted more than 2 years and the break of the strong trend is a sign of a deep correction. But maybe it's for the better after a big correction there is always a chance of even more impulsive upward movement. We will wait, time will tell.

a zoom in the charts, for those who are interested in smaller time frames > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5079220.new#new

I'm still targeting $3500 US but I will accumulate in small steps along the way also.

if you are buying for the long run then its good to stat buying every dip, finding a perfect bottom is nearly impossible.

From the look of things, it seems clearly that the worst drop is about tk come. In the past few days, I have seen alot of news hinting to this. First of all, the sudden drop of bitcoin from $6k range down to $4k was very swift and many never expected it. The market is still very fluid, the bear is still strong, we might see further dips.

now the price is in the range of $ 3800 - $ 4500 and this has lasted 2 weeks, I am pessimistic the price will rise high at the end of the year, but what I always remember is that crypto can give us surprises anytime and anywhere

All of that bears would be exhausted someday and it is time for all of the bulls to make Bitcoin great again and would make a lot of people happy.

you are right, by zooming out to the weekly chart, things do look worse

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5080235.new#new
yup the previous support that held for a whole year will be the worst Resistance for the bulls. the selling pressure around 5.5-6k will be stupidly high. only some major good news can beat it.

2018 for Bitcoin was the "bloody year." But the cryptocurrency price chart is repeated, the author of the post has already written about it. This is not the first crisis, look at the dynamics of Bitcoin for all the years and you will understand what I am talking about

We are approaching the 2900-3000 support zone,  which is the lowest part of the visible support zone, there is probably tons of SL and buy orders at the area.i expect a very high volume there, could be a very goo chance to go long for a quick scalp, but should we close below it, i'll be selling every thing !.

What you say is not wrong, but I have a strong belief that the price will increase in a way and time that we cannot predict before.


True, it looks like 2019 will be a good year for the growth of cryptocurrency, especially for the price of bitcoin that we love.


This thing is very likely to happen, but we should not only be fixated and focus on the decline, but we must also be optimistic and believe that the value of bitcoin will certainly increase to meet the expectations of everyone involved in it.

If you're a trader optimism shouldn't be coming into it. You owe it to yourself to be pragmatic. If you believe it's going to carry on falling then do something to capitalise on it. When optimism returns, and there are few signs for now, go and unemotionally milk that instead.

That line has already been broken, but this time around I think it wouldn’t go down anymore and won’t pass the current line. The next move might likely be upwards but nobody is sure about that yet. There have been predictions that bull will be anytime from now, but we don’t know when actually and it might not be this December.

We only have few weeks to go before we end this year and despite of lot of good news the price is still on downtrend. So therefore, if you're a short term trader you'll stress out yourself from the crash but if you're a long term holder, you won't mind the current crash thus you'll accumulating more to hold.

---

Nice one for OP as his speculation happened, though doing TA isn't accurate but at least we have something that we can look into.

I don’t know if the market is still going to drop below this $3,401. I hope this is the bottom price. What most of us expected to happen this year, it just didn’t happen how we expected it to happen. I thought that by now there would have been a Bull, but instead the price keeps dropping and has circulating between $3.3k and $3.6k. I hope it doesn’t go below that and drop down to $2k,cause that wouldn’t be a good thing for the market.

there is nothing interesting about 3401, the actual support area is actually a little under it, it's 2900-3100 depending on the exchange and whether it is against USD or USDT.

also what matters now is the daily close, as we could easily have a wick all the way down to 2500-2600 and still close above 3000$, so what we should be looking at is a daily candle close, as long as we do not close below it, it makes more sense to buy, the moment we close below the support, we short the market with SL being above 3k as it will act as the new resistance. regardless of what type of a trader you are, i suggest you stick to larger frames when we approach the support area, because the volatility at the level can be crazy and many SLs will be hit,bang bang !

And that's a very gloomy scenario but more likely to happen that us seeing the market surge. And last i checked, the green volume still doesn't look sturdy. Though many are saying that 3k line is a strong support. Hopefully it is.

https://i.imgur.com/Y6CEjfN.jpg


waiting for a break out. :o

depending on your goals, to me, i hope it does not hold due to 2 main reasons

1- for trading, it will be a very nice and easy trade, as the way down is very clear, unlike the way up which is now full of obstacles.
2- the lower the bottom the better the rally  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/gFGkL19.jpg


nicely done, approaching resistance so getting ready to close my long position , i might open short positions should i see a reversal candle.

That's right, I agree with what you have said, so "buying and HOLD" is something that other people and I have to do right now because this's the single most effective way to grow the price, and besides especially when BTC prices increase, surely we will also get a tremendous profit, I'm sure this will definitely happen.

I have nothing against HODL if you know how to HODL, HODL takes skills too. you can do it if you have the patience to wait for years.

  https://i.imgur.com/jp9kJG4.jpg

i closed every single long position for now. should have closed right at the resistance especially with that shooting star forming on the 4H, but i got greedy and closed at 4% less profit, but still with overall about 20% profit from the falling wedge which is not bad.

why did i close my long positions ?

1-we are approaching the 4500$ strong resistance (bitfinex)
2- BTC has formed a kind of a rising wedge which if we break, we will dip to possibly 3750$
3- Bearish divergence and exhausted bulls starting to show on the trend.

what am i going to do next?

1- short the market if we break the wedge " SL will be a close above the breaking candle.

TP will be 3940, 3770   or manual close should any bullish signal appear on the chart.

2- il long the market if we the 4h candle break above the red resistance and close above, it will be safe to buy with SL being a candle close below the resistance which will then act as a support.

TP will be 4800, 5400 or a manual close if things go south.

*tho i doubt scenario 2 is going to happen, but if it does, we gotta take some very nice profit because the run will be quick.

for all traders must always be optimistic.
 if you see that the current developments may still not be good, then we must rearrange new techniques in trading.
maybe we can make a long-term trade to prevent sharp losses, or if the situation still hasn't changed, then we can get out of the trade first, we can wait for prices to move up.

https://i.imgur.com/RdFTk9e.jpg

say TA is b.s   ;D.

closed partial of my short position, moved SL to break even. currently at local support 3940$.  we could bounce from here, but am not going to open any longs just yet, will add more shorts if we break 3940.

from the graph you gave it was terrible because the price could fall whenever it could happen, you should be able to learn from the 2017 price increase until the end of 2018, there will be no coins that always have a price move to go up, so you should be careful .

If we closely take a look on the graph, there is a certain thing that signifies. It signifies that we cant predict the market trend, even we created a lot like these seem still we dont know. If we compare the current chart we have now, still far away from what it have since from the start. Personal adoption into the market still be our option to survive.

https://i.imgur.com/LGjAcpf.jpg

3770 TP reached, nice little profit.


going long now, 3600-3700 is a good support, potential H&S formation

SL : 3650

TP 1 :3970
TP 2 :4250

Right now the bitcoin price is nearby 3600+ below your SL:3650, so i think your SL  got triggered as in most of the exchanges the price is down below 3600 level. So what will be the next position to take in the market.

https://i.imgur.com/yzPJOQe.jpg

price did not go below 3686$ on bitfenx. it's important the you treat each exchange differently, and stick to the one you use.

> https://cryptowat.ch/markets/bitfinex/btc/usd

on binance price was as low as 3540$ because that's BTCUSDT. the point here is to use the support line as your SL, regardless of what the numbers show.

if you look at my chart, you see a green line at 3689.3$ that was the support line that was supposed to hold the price, and price bounced just about 70 cents above it.

on the exchange that had 3550$ then that support line was at the price.

the support line is drawn based on the prev support 25 and 27 nov , and as Resistance on 9 dec and 17 dec. it is a very critical level and it will look almost the same on as a whole on any exchange, but the prices will be different.

also you should not refer to SL as per exact number " as i explained in my prev posts", i do not set auto SL, i set Auto TP but not SL. you need to wait for at least an hour candle close below the support, you set a price alert on trading-view , you get and email or sms when prices crosses that target, you then wait for the candle close, if it closes below you exist, if not you don't.

but if you know you are way too far from your pc /phone and won't be able to react, then you may set an automatic SL.

i hope you understand.

as for the next steps, i closed half of my potions at TP1 , waiting for 4250 on biftnex with my SL changing to close below 3800 because 3800 is now a new local support that should hold the price up.

Good luck.

if you want to learn how to enter a good trade read this > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5093916.msg49106511#msg49106511

https://i.imgur.com/ASCrcdZ.png

wait for a break-out , go long. set TP and SL .

true that. a bart top is still possible here, but that looks like a solid setup.

bigger picture, do you see us breaking $4200 (the december 23 high)? i'm thinking so. it looks to me like the start of C in a typical ABC. but i'm wondering if i'm getting ahead of myself.....

we have a more important level to break anyway. below is Binance chart, it's btcusdT, so it's a bit different from other exchanges.

https://i.imgur.com/Q5UPgvU.png

there is a very strong downtrend line that the bulls need to break, price will most likely not close above it, 3777$ seems to be it for this leg,
and it will head to test the uptrend line at about 3440$.

a break out to either direction will be a good trade, but i don't see this happening soon, it will probably be by next month, but should we break out to one direction, you don't wanna miss that.

if we break the triangle up, very likely we will break the 4200 but 4700-4800 will be it for Q1 and Q2

look at the bigger picture on the weekly chart
https://i.imgur.com/z2YRNsn.png

we have got the 20MA , a trend line and a horizontal resistance to break, being on the weekly charts, this only indicates that we need months of side-ways to break that, testing the trend line at 4700$ will unlikely break it,the bulls will probably be exhausted at those levels, the bulls need to bring those resistances to their zone, and this can be only done through a long extended period of sideways between the low of 3200 and those resistances.

here is an more detailed explanation > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49569375#msg49569375

if you are not a big fan of comparing old charts to current, just read the concept, every technical aspect points to the fact that this is nothing but a sucker rally that is going to be sold real fast.

and this of course based on the assumption that we have actually bottom, because if we have not, things are 3 times worse, assuming we bottomed thins still look bad for the bulls and the lambo guys, i am almost certain that nothing really interesting for the bulls is going to happen before at least Sep 2019.    

And the worst part can be under the 3K USD of Bitcoin! Bitcoin has broken all the support lines since August 2018 I think, and it continues! Actually, I want to see BTC under 3K USD very soon, because without crossing that line I don't think Bitcoin price can go up! Sometimes I can't believe that Bitcoin price is 3500 USD where I thought it can't go under 5K USD! But I have a strong belief that after breaking all the lines, Bitcoin price will create a new line in a positive way.

what goes up must come down, and the opposite is also true, based on bitcoin history, and most technical aspects, we have either bottomed, or are a few steps away from bottom. back in Nov last year i said that "2900-3100" is what most likely bottom , you can refer to the op, and i still side that, not to satisfy my ego, but this is what the charts are suggesting to be the higher probability.

there is another probability that suggests 1900$ and another one that suggest 1000$  > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5080235.msg48455090#msg48455090

while non of this has to be true, it really is important to be prepared for all these scenarios and to have a plan for each and every scenario, one must have a plan even for an out of no where spike to 10k next month.

if you are not planning your investments , you are as good as a gambler, regardless of where the market goes, you will always lose.

break out took a bit longer, but played out real nice, inistial target 3900$ is reached

https://i.imgur.com/v4UQgnE.png

we have also broke out of the triangle, that's a good sign for the bulls however ,am starting to lock some profit already, close 50% , moved the SL for the rest to breakeven point, TP is 4020$ and 4120$
, the resistance ahead is quite strong, i need to see a daily close above 4060$ to be extra bullish on the current trend.

---

again guys this is not a show-off or i told you so, i want to show you the breakouts are the most profitable trades one can make specially in a sideways market like this one.

my overall take on the market is still very bearish, we are still making lower highs , despite the fact we making higher lows as well, the overall trend is still very bearish, however a higher high above 4060$ will give more strength to this current uptrend, but don't FOMO.

Bulls are really exhausted and I'd recommend you to buy some short contracts. There too many many long positions are opened, so bears have a big liquidity that bulls don't.

it's been a while since i posted my trading set up, here is the current plan and view.

This is really hard to judge but theres a number of signs to the upside.  With us above 50 day average and also putting in a series of rising lower highs, it seems to be a very good challenge to the 4000 to 4500 doorway area.     That area itself can be resistance by itself enough to send us back down but also its entry to the bigger challenge of approaching 6000.    I'm not sure how to dismiss either possibility as occurring right now but just has to be said it looks to be positive momentum to me.   

Yes the bigger picture is a declining 200 day average and that obvious negative long term but its not really challenged that for a while.   Fall far enough and theres space for a rise like this to occur.   How much its linked to news or anticipation of events I'm not sure but price alone looks ok and plenty doubters is ironically good

In general, I would prefer that the cryptocurrency really be decentralized Independently of each other. It’s too bad that all this time replacing Bitcoin has affected the development of many projects. Today we are reaping the bad fruits of this trend. If in the future Bitcoin will not change anything, then really it is worth expecting only a bad development of events.

here is an update for the last set up


https://i.imgur.com/Edh0ZIZ.png


we did close below the trend line mentioned, and now heading low with almost no support all the way down to the trend line in green , which i have not drawn in the last post.

the support of this up trend line is somewhere around 3650$ , it's a strong support on the daily, and i will be monitoring the 4h chart when we approach that level,  the 3450-70$ however is a stronger support and that's where i would set my buy order without really having to monitor price actions, because that's where the 200 MA sits as well, so chances are we get a wick down to that level.

so i will be closing my short positions as we approach 3700$ and slowly opening longs as we approach 3650.

i will also be paying a close attention to the 200 weekly SMA, it's now the strongest defense line for the bulls, should it be broken i will be entering heavy short positions as i do expect the fall will be a big one if that would happen.