How likely do you think it is we see triple digits in 2019?

[stupido656]

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 23 days, unless target hit earlier  

[gentlemand]

I'm going to give it a 38.7% chance. You can have blow off tops where the price ludicrously overshoots, and indeed we had one. This means you can just as easily have blow off bottoms where it crazily undershoots.

Both prices are talked about, obsessed over and referred to for years afterwards but in reality very little actual money changes hands. They're the tippiest tips.

I'll wait for the end of Q1 next year before thinking the possibility of it has receded.

[BrewMaster]

the start of this rise was from above $1k which is 4 digits so even if price were to have some ridiculous drop it shouldn't go lower than that! which would be impossible for me to imagine because despite what we all know about manipulation, it is not that powerful to cause such a gigantic drop...

[exstasie]

"Triple digits" at this point is like "double digits" was in 2015. It's a unicorn. The chances are extremely low, unless you firmly believe Bitcoin's long term uptrend is over and we're beginning our descent towards $0. Assets don't fall below historical yearly supports, and then recover and bubble to new highs. That doesn't happen.

I'm glad to see even old timers think there's a good chance. Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy! Double digits seemed obvious back in 2015 too. But they never came, and then bears got massacred.

[gentlemand]

I'm glad to see even old timers think there's a good chance. Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy! Double digits seemed obvious back in 2015 too. But they never came, and then bears got massacred.

I'm not gloomy in the slightest but I never, ever expected to get as high as it did. Thusly similarly I'm probably not expecting it to get as low as it possibly might. It don't really matter. Let's get it out the way and forge onwards. I'll be here no matter what.

[exstasie]

I'm glad to see even old timers think there's a good chance. Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy! Double digits seemed obvious back in 2015 too. But they never came, and then bears got massacred.

I'm not gloomy in the slightest but I never, ever expected to get as high as it did. Thusly similarly I'm probably not expecting it to get as low as it possibly might. It don't really matter. Let's get it out the way and forge onwards. I'll be here no matter what.

In a long term uptrend, it really doesn't matter how high it goes. There's no upper limit. But I don't use that as a gauge for how low the price should go in a crash (because we're in a long term uptrend). In an uptrend, we wouldn't plunge below historical cycle highs (2013). Triple digits might not spell out "Bitcoin is dead" but it would tell me the 2009-2017 uptrend was dead.

[1Referee]

the start of this rise was from above $1k which is 4 digits so even if price were to have some ridiculous drop it shouldn't go lower than that! which would be impossible for me to imagine because despite what we all know about manipulation, it is not that powerful to cause such a gigantic drop...

Actually, we briefly dipped below $800 last year January, so there is some sort of a gap still.

In most cases, if it concerns an empty increase, the price drops back to where it started. I think the Japan and Asia developments were legit price drivers, which is $2000-$3000'ish. The empty pump that followed afterwards was related to the futures and the ICO boom.

I'm sure that many still remember how the price dumped from $5000 to $3000 and jumped back up again. It didn't stop there for nothing. I remember someone over at Goldman Sachs was expecting much lower lows at that point, but it didn't happen. If it drops below $3000 without jumping back over it, then there is no level safe to call a bottom.

[thecodebear]

0%

I think we'll see under $3k but under $2k seems highly unlikely, let alone under $1k.

[Dirk2017]

Really? as low as 3 digits by next year? This sounds scary but i don't see it will badly go beyond that figures so i vote 0% to 20% chances. Many nations are already using Bitcoin as alternative currency for their direct spending so for me becoming below $1000 just like that is really impossible but if ever it will going to happen then better find another non crypto investments then.

[WinslowIII]

"Triple digits" at this point is like "double digits" was in 2015. It's a unicorn. The chances are extremely low, unless you firmly believe Bitcoin's long term uptrend is over and we're beginning our descent towards $0. Assets don't fall below historical yearly supports, and then recover and bubble to new highs. That doesn't happen.

I'm glad to see even old timers think there's a good chance. Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy! Double digits seemed obvious back in 2015 too. But they never came, and then bears got massacred.

2015 the altcoin market was still having pumps/dumps and governments hadn't cracked down on exchanges with this fucking kyc bs. In short, back in 2015 the future was still full of the promise of the unkown. and ethereum with it's idea of launching shitcoin icos was growing wings.
There is absolutely no guarantee the crypto market pumps again, and we all know the alternative to that - zero. The only way forward is legit honest to God adoption by the masses, never before has bitcoin been closer to do or die than now.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy!

Indeed, not just for bitcoin but for the stock market as well.  I'm reading a whole bunch of bearish sentiment whilst browsing the world wide webbers lately.  I'm not sure if this is all due to political uncertainty or if the economy is actually in trouble. 

As far as bitcoin goes, I've come to expect the unexpected and learned that pretty much anything can happen as far as the price goes.  Once upon a time I thought that if bitcoin hit $10k that the USD would be worthless and the global economy would be in crisis--and then bitcoin did hit that price and kept climbing and I was wrong about the USD and the economy. 

Since very few people really use bitcoin in commerce, it's main function is essentially speculation.  Not a store of value, not a safe-haven asset, not a currency to buy things with, but an almost pure speculative asset.  Thus, the price can go any which way the wind blows, and that wind depends on investor sentiment, news, and rumor.  I've not read any news that was so discouraging that it would account for the drop we've seen, so I'm assuming that a lot of investors who bought bitcoin below $3000 are taking their profit off the table.  I'm sure some weak-handed individuals are getting frustrated and/or anxious and are selling at a loss.  But as far as bitcoin hitting triple digits at some point in 2019....I'm leaning toward no.  But I'm not 100% confident it's not going to fall that much; it certainly could.

That ETF decision being made in February should be interesting.  I have a feeling that whichever way it goes, the price of bitcoin is going to move.  I never thought it was a huge deal either way or that having a bitcoin ETF was critical, but that doesn't mean other investors agree with me.  Can't wait to see the outcome of that.

[gentlemand]

2015 the altcoin market was still having pumps/dumps and governments hadn't cracked down on exchanges with this fucking kyc bs. In short, back in 2015 the future was still full of the promise of the unkown. and ethereum with it's idea of launching shitcoin icos was growing wings.
There is absolutely no guarantee the crypto market pumps again, and we all know the alternative to that - zero. The only way forward is legit honest to God adoption by the masses, never before has bitcoin been closer to do or die than now.

Agreed about the adoption. Not agree about death. It's looking better than at any other time in terms of what's underlying. And are you ever going to let go of this weird theory about kyc? The next level won't happen without it, or rather won't be permitted to happen.

Once BTC is boring alt pumps will be back. Look at factom recently. That's an echo of the olden days.

[thecodebear]

Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy!

Indeed, not just for bitcoin but for the stock market as well.  I'm reading a whole bunch of bearish sentiment whilst browsing the world wide webbers lately.  I'm not sure if this is all due to political uncertainty or if the economy is actually in trouble. 

As far as bitcoin goes, I've come to expect the unexpected and learned that pretty much anything can happen as far as the price goes.  Once upon a time I thought that if bitcoin hit $10k that the USD would be worthless and the global economy would be in crisis--and then bitcoin did hit that price and kept climbing and I was wrong about the USD and the economy. 

Since very few people really use bitcoin in commerce, it's main function is essentially speculation.  Not a store of value, not a safe-haven asset, not a currency to buy things with, but an almost pure speculative asset.  Thus, the price can go any which way the wind blows, and that wind depends on investor sentiment, news, and rumor.  I've not read any news that was so discouraging that it would account for the drop we've seen, so I'm assuming that a lot of investors who bought bitcoin below $3000 are taking their profit off the table.  I'm sure some weak-handed individuals are getting frustrated and/or anxious and are selling at a loss.  But as far as bitcoin hitting triple digits at some point in 2019....I'm leaning toward no.  But I'm not 100% confident it's not going to fall that much; it certainly could.

That ETF decision being made in February should be interesting.  I have a feeling that whichever way it goes, the price of bitcoin is going to move.  I never thought it was a huge deal either way or that having a bitcoin ETF was critical, but that doesn't mean other investors agree with me.  Can't wait to see the outcome of that.

The November big drop was from the BCH hard fork / split / hash war. Tanked the whole market just cuz people panic sold. I don't know why people panic sold just because of BCH, but it is clear thats what it is because the crash happened the very next day after the hard fork once BCH madness started.

ETF could be a very big deal because it opens up an easy way for traditional investors (retail and institutional) to get a piece of Bitcoin, without worrying about wallets and buying off crypto exchanges and whatnot. I don't think the effect will be immediate but I think it'd bring in a huge amount of money to Bitcoin that otherwise would not invest.

[Baofeng]

0%

I think we'll see under $3k but under $2k seems highly unlikely, let alone under $1k.

Exactly. I think if the price goes under $3K, we might see the bears fully exhausted at that point. And we might not see another drop off after that. So for me its highly unlikely that we're going to see bitcoin goes below 4 digit again. It will be going like full circles though if ever we touch it, imagine January 2017 @700 a pop and December 2018 < $1K, possible but very unlikely to happen.

[exstasie]

Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy!

Indeed, not just for bitcoin but for the stock market as well.  I'm reading a whole bunch of bearish sentiment whilst browsing the world wide webbers lately.  I'm not sure if this is all due to political uncertainty or if the economy is actually in trouble. 

It's obviously tough to say for sure. With no new lows in sight, this could end up another sideways chop fest that leaves bears wanting. On the other hand, the logic of the business cycle says to be wary of a major contraction since the economy has been so strong in terms of growth, unemployment, etc. I think if we consider the weakness in equities in Q1 this year, people are rightfully worried.

The November big drop was from the BCH hard fork / split / hash war. Tanked the whole market just cuz people panic sold. I don't know why people panic sold just because of BCH, but it is clear thats what it is because the crash happened the very next day after the hard fork once BCH madness started.

That doesn't prove people were selling because of BCH at all. People were more likely selling because price dropped through support and they were cutting losses.

[WinslowIII]

2015 the altcoin market was still having pumps/dumps and governments hadn't cracked down on exchanges with this fucking kyc bs. In short, back in 2015 the future was still full of the promise of the unkown. and ethereum with it's idea of launching shitcoin icos was growing wings.
There is absolutely no guarantee the crypto market pumps again, and we all know the alternative to that - zero. The only way forward is legit honest to God adoption by the masses, never before has bitcoin been closer to do or die than now.

Agreed about the adoption. Not agree about death. It's looking better than at any other time in terms of what's underlying. And are you ever going to let go of this weird theory about kyc? The next level won't happen without it, or rather won't be permitted to happen.

Once BTC is boring alt pumps will be back. Look at factom recently. That's an echo of the olden days.

Bitcoin was boring for months, now it's panic dumping. Kyc is a huge deal, before it was wild west anonymity, now it may as well be penny stocks. Next thing you know we will have to hire brokers to trade.

[magneto]

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 23 days, unless target hit earlier 

It's extremely unlikely given the circumstances that we are in now.

The past bear market in bitcoin (2014) have saw prices go down around 80% before stability. I don't expect this bear market to be that different.

Even though historical performance isn't necessarily always an indicator of what will happen, there is simply no reason for BTC to go down to 3 digits. Firstly, I still believe that there will be firm demand for bitcoin at the $3k level, which will have strong support. Secondly, institutional investors that are just entering the market during this period of bearishness will likely seize the buying opportunity if BTC does tumble down below $3k, as well individuals that are investing in BTC in the long term.

There will simply be too much demand looking at it on a macro scale, if prices do fall to $2-3k, which will stop it from going down further. While 3 digits is possible, I think that would take some real failures in the network, or several prominent countries imposing bans on BTC at the same time to make it happen.

[Herbert2020]

I'm glad to see even old timers think there's a good chance. Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy! Double digits seemed obvious back in 2015 too. But they never came, and then bears got massacred.

I'm not gloomy in the slightest but I never, ever expected to get as high as it did. Thusly similarly I'm probably not expecting it to get as low as it possibly might. It don't really matter. Let's get it out the way and forge onwards. I'll be here no matter what.

lets not forget about all the damage that these ups and downs are doing to bitcoin. if you stop looking at bitcoin as a hardcore believed or as some people see it as short term profit making machine then you can see how bad it looks from outside.
we have an invention that was supposed to be a payment system which is going to $20000 then falls down to $3000.... we are all talking about adoption but we are also preventing it by having this kind of volatility.
i will also be here no matter what. but at what cost? i think something seriously needs to be done about manipulation if we want to see bitcoin grow and not just rise in price.

[exstasie]

I'm glad to see even old timers think there's a good chance. Sentiment is getting mighty gloomy! Double digits seemed obvious back in 2015 too. But they never came, and then bears got massacred.

I'm not gloomy in the slightest but I never, ever expected to get as high as it did. Thusly similarly I'm probably not expecting it to get as low as it possibly might. It don't really matter. Let's get it out the way and forge onwards. I'll be here no matter what.

lets not forget about all the damage that these ups and downs are doing to bitcoin. if you stop looking at bitcoin as a hardcore believed or as some people see it as short term profit making machine then you can see how bad it looks from outside.
we have an invention that was supposed to be a payment system which is going to $20000 then falls down to $3000.... we are all talking about adoption but we are also preventing it by having this kind of volatility.
i will also be here no matter what. but at what cost? i think something seriously needs to be done about manipulation if we want to see bitcoin grow and not just rise in price.

Very few people complain about Bitcoin's upside volatility, only its downside volatility. The fact is, volatility is a defining characteristic for the Bitcoin market because it's an experimental, speculative asset and liquidity is so low in both directions. There's no way around it.

I don't think manipulation is a big problem. I think manipulators cause short-term spikes on spot exchanges to net themselves profits on Bitmex, but I don't think many entities are capable of crashing the market and keeping a lid on it. That happened because of strong sellers and weak buyers. There just isn't much demand for BTC these days.

[talkbitcoin]

how likely do you think it is we see $35000 price in 2018?

i'll give 3 digits in 2019 the same amount of likelihood as $35k in 2018. most people miss the fact that despite all the drama and the dumps we are still talking about a very lively market that consists of many investors who are not just trying to push the price down but also try to buy a lot of bitcoin.