NEW BAKKT game

[JayJuanGee]

Almost forgot about it to be honest. And now that we're a month away, plus 17 days means we have exactly 40 days and nights til the outcome of this competition is decided... providing our friends at Bakkt keep their word, of course!

Am I feeling good about my $8888 price prediction? Why not? Most chartings seem to show a slightly downward trend for the mid term view.

You do realise you already lost, right? It's the highest price (Bitstamp BTC/USD) reached between the start and end of the game. And that one is $13880... Only EatonABooger (current leader) and those with higher prices have a chance to win...

Hahahahaa

Even though I have some reservations about these kinds of games, it is interesting to see that the rules of this particular game had incentivized bullish predictions, even if some of the actual game participants might NOT have read (or understood) the actual rules language.

Ah yes I did know I lost a long while back, the smiley face sad face thingie micg did helps remind me every time haha.

My English I just realised totally said something else but I meant to say I think we are still going down, so the winner is probably not going to change in 40 days. Can I blame typing and thinking on mobile?

Bitcoin does have a strange way of proving predictions wrong so throwing my hat into da ring of destiny.

Yes.  I wonder what the odds would be that the current winner would be displaced.

40 days is a decently long time in bitcoinlandia in terms of what can happen with price.  Maybe less than 33.333% odds that the current winner would be displaced?

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[LoyceV]

Yes.  I wonder what the odds would be that the current winner would be displaced.

40 days is a decently long time in bitcoinlandia in terms of what can happen with price.  Maybe less than 33.333% odds that the current winner would be displaced?

I wonder what the odds are that BAKKT gets delayed again. Their track records shows that chances are pretty high!

[JayJuanGee]

Yes.  I wonder what the odds would be that the current winner would be displaced.

40 days is a decently long time in bitcoinlandia in terms of what can happen with price.  Maybe less than 33.333% odds that the current winner would be displaced?

I wonder what the odds are that BAKKT gets delayed again. Their track records shows that chances are pretty high!

In the past weeks, I have made some other posts in that line of skepticism, too, such as saying : "I will believe it when I see it."   

Funny, you did not venture a probability estimate, Loyce?  Maybe I would put a delay at less 33.333%, too?  So I am inclined to give it quite a bit better than 50/50 odds of launching on schedule, in my current thinking.

[Jating]

As per latest tweet:

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1166743438332743685?s=20

On Sept 6, our Warehouse will begin offering secure storage of customer bitcoin to prepare for the launch of Bakkt Bitcoin Daily & Monthly Futures when they launch on Sept 23

These contracts will enable physical delivery of bitcoin with end-to-end regulated markets and custody

Everyone now is getting excited or at least seeing this as a positive news that can boost the market price again. This could be a big opportunity to all of us so let's see how it will pan out, how many are willing to be early participants in Sept. 6.

[buwaytress]

I'm really wondering at the logic of giving someone like Bakkt permission to "Warehouse" your money weeks before they deliver a product they've delayed all year long. Why would you move your money around twice and expose it to more points of failure?

But let's see. Maybe they're also trying to gauge if the interest is as strong as they first thought, or if people have lost confidence.

I'll wager they're doing it as a backup in case they can't launch. Then it'll be some excuse of when we launched Warehouse, the interest was not strong enough and the feedback was to adjust several more things, so we've decided to take the advice of our investors and continue developing the requested options. This will push full-Bakkt...

[LoyceV]

I'm really wondering at the logic of giving someone like Bakkt permission to "Warehouse" your money weeks before they deliver a product they've delayed all year long. Why would you move your money around twice and expose it to more points of failure?

I haven't really looked into it, but I wouldn't easily trust their "secure storage of customer bitcoin". If BAKKT f*cks up and loses all coins, is there an insurance company that gives you back your Bitcoins? Or some dollar value at the moment of the hack, which you'll receive many years later (Mt. Gox anyone?) when Bitcoin went up 50-fold and you missed out on that?

Most people don't trust banks, but they trust the government guarantee that guarantees their savings (here up to 100,000 euro) in case the bank loses their money. I'd like to see stronger guarantees than that before I'll ever trust a company with storing my Bitcoin for anything longer than a quick exchange.

[exstasie]

I haven't really looked into it, but I wouldn't easily trust their "secure storage of customer bitcoin". If BAKKT f*cks up and loses all coins, is there an insurance company that gives you back your Bitcoins? Or some dollar value at the moment of the hack, which you'll receive many years later (Mt. Gox anyone?) when Bitcoin went up 50-fold and you missed out on that?

They announced a few months ago that they obtained a $100,000,000 insurance policy on their cold storage:

The exchange has also secured insurance for funds stored offline.

“Bakkt uses both warm (online) and cold (offline) wallet architecture to secure customer funds. The majority of assets are stored offline in air-gapped cold wallets that are insured with a $100,000,000 policy underwritten by leading global insurance carriers,” he wrote, though he did not identify who these carriers were.

This is in contrast to Coinbase, who only has an insurance policy on their hot wallets. Of course if you lose BTC in an insurable event, you can only expect (at best) to be compensated with the dollar equivalent at the time of the event, paid in USD.

[El duderino_]

If everything go as planned then 23 Sept. is the release right?

So the 10 of Oct. we have the winner... I need to read my own rules again, damn this sh*t has already taken to long of time

[buwaytress]

If everything go as planned then 23 Sept. is the release right?

So the 10 of Oct. we have the winner... I need to read my own rules again, damn this sh*t has already taken to long of time

Yep. 17 days after 23 September, and that's the date promised. That's also the first expirations of futures for that trading week, so I'm pretty sure they absolutely need it to happen then, otherwise it'll be another month's delay.

Should start taking sidebets on it getting delayed again;)

[El duderino_]

If everything go as planned then 23 Sept. is the release right?

So the 10 of Oct. we have the winner... I need to read my own rules again, damn this sh*t has already taken to long of time

Yep. 17 days after 23 September, and that's the date promised. That's also the first expirations of futures for that trading week, so I'm pretty sure they absolutely need it to happen then, otherwise it'll be another month's delay.

Should start taking sidebets on it getting delayed again;)

You think it rather gets delayed instead of happening?

#trueHODLERSdon’tCARE

^
But its Fun to follow from a distance

[El duderino_]

So the 10th of Octobre we should have the winner!?

[Totscha]

So the 10th of Octobre we should have the winner!?

Yeah... Congrats to LoyceV!

[El duderino_]

So the 10th of Octobre we should have the winner!?

Yeah... Congrats to LoyceV!

Just imagine that.... +30K on Octobre 10th  

[LoyceV]

Yeah... Congrats to LoyceV!

I believe it when I see BAKKT actually launch

Do I need to start preparing long-term storage paper wallets for my kids' college funds yet?

[buwaytress]

Yeah... Congrats to LoyceV!

I believe it when I see BAKKT actually launch

Do I need to start preparing long-term storage paper wallets for my kids' college funds yet?

Same here. I don't know why even the Tom Lees don't seem to get that surprises are the norm now in this field. So if we see a couple more twists, it's kind of the least that could happen.

Let's see tomorrow. Still a good 24 hours++

Speaking of college funds. I have started preps for mine. But I'm not sure if I should now put a little in regular funds in case things go as (un)expected and Bitcoin takes a while to hit $1 mill =p

[gentlemand]

All the speculations and expectations will end tomorrow when we have the Bakkt platform live. It was delayed number of times which caused people to create unnecessary fuds.
Bakkt platform will launch Bitcoin futures which will give a lot of trust to the bitcoins and digital currencies and will help it make mainstream.

It's live right now as far as I can tell.

As many have predicted there ain't too much happening.

https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures-Contract/data?marketId=6137541

https://www.theice.com/products/72035483/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Daily-Futures-Contract/data

I think that's the last we're going to hear of it for quite some time. It'll count when it matters. Who knows when that'll be?

[exstasie]

It's live right now as far as I can tell.

As many have predicted there ain't too much happening.

https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures-Contract/data?marketId=6137541

https://www.theice.com/products/72035483/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Daily-Futures-Contract/data

Thanks for the links!

The October contract is showing live data but the daily isn't. 13 BTC volume in a few hours on the monthly contract. At least that shows a lot more interest than the OTC product VanEck just launched.

[cryptofrka]

Wow, it opened without any hype. It was announced as such a huge thing, I expected I'd at least hear about it somewhere other than BTT.

I assume congratulations to the winner are in order then

[El duderino_]

Alright..... see you guys on 10th of Octobre ....

[LoyceV]

I assume congratulations to the winner are in order then

Two weeks to go, give it time