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Author Topic: Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart !  (Read 556 times)
mikeywith
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December 14, 2018, 07:49:22 PM
Merited by dbshck (2), 1Referee (1), LeGaulois (1)
 #1








looking at the monthly chart i can see 3 reason on why 2500-3000 could be the bottom of this bear market.


1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$


* even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$

*if this scenario plays out , expect a sideways market for about 300 days !

* however during this market we can see up to 90% increase in price. before another decline to form the double bottom

* if 2500 is the lowest of the wick then we could rally up to 5k next year Q1  most likely after Bakkt launch.

-------------

should this support fail then we are simply screwed  Grin.



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December 14, 2018, 08:13:58 PM
 #2

looking at the monthly chart i can see 3 reason on why 2500-3000 could be the bottom of this bear market.

1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$

* even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$

I've never really looked at monthly MAs on Bitcoin before. But I have a similar analysis, based on the 200-week MA. It's the same logic: it acted as support twice at the 2015 bottoms and we never closed below. It currently stands at $3,175 (Bitstamp), so we punched below it earlier today.

If it's going to act as support again, we only have a couple days left before the weekly candle closes. I'm excited to see if it closes back above.

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December 14, 2018, 08:33:23 PM
 #3

should this support fail then we are simply screwed  Grin.

so if things are too bad for bitcoin, we can only do this:



we need to take a holiday so that we can relax and forget the price for a while, people are getting paranoid because the price is falling a lot, before I saw people saying it will fall to $3000, then I heard it will fall to $1500, then I heard it's going to fall to $1000 and then I heard it's going to fall to $600

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December 14, 2018, 10:06:36 PM
 #4

That chart looks about right. I think we could see a short lived drop down into the 2000s below that support, but basically 3000 I think will be the long term support for the bottom. I don't think it'll be 300 days until the bull market starts though, not with several Wall St institutions bringing out exchanges, trading desks, etc in 2019. Going into 2019 there is a much more positive growth outlook than there was going into 2015. But I could see somewhat sideways trading in the 3000 - 5000 range going until mid-year before the tide turns.
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December 14, 2018, 10:37:40 PM
 #5

It's almost scary how similar the post 2013 bull run correction is compared to the correction we're going through right now.

At the very end there was a harsh crash similar to the one from $6000 to where we are right now, and currently it's waiting for the mini flash crash (if it pops up to begin with) to form a bottom which will be followed up by a recovery. If that happens as well, then lol, I'm not sure what to think of it.

Currently there seems to be quite a decent chunk of buy support between $3100-$3200 and I expect it to ignite one massive wave of buy orders as soon as $3000 comes close. I expect the big walls to be hiding there.


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December 14, 2018, 11:34:53 PM
 #6

Judging by the open interest change today it seems that the selling is drying up and the path of least resistance is on the upside at least temporarily.

Look at the open interest and how it changed when we hit the new lows. Yesterday the OI actually increased during the break because it looks like the OI decreased during the short squeeze up till $3300 area.

Today we had the lows tested again and very little open interest change, only when we got that $100 spike upwards did it decrease which was the shorts covering.

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December 14, 2018, 11:40:50 PM
 #7

In the short run, we could see further decreases in price due to the fact that investor confidence right now is extremely low, and that fear is quite widespread across the market. As a result, I fully expect prices to dip below $3k at some stage.

But we are definitely close to the bottom. Your analysis is pretty much spot on, in my opinion, as the previous bear market bottomed out at around this level of percentage loss from the ATH as well. Even though that's not a sufficient enough piece of information alone to say that we're close to the floor, it will definitely play a role in this current market, especially as investors see this as a bottom signal.

However, the actual recovery is probably very far away still. Expect lots of sideways movements and further dips in the coming months. I don't expect bullish sentiment to return this year or even in 2019.

 
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December 15, 2018, 04:14:17 AM
 #8

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.
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December 15, 2018, 04:30:24 AM
 #9

It's almost scary how similar the post 2013 bull run correction is compared to the correction we're going through right now.

it is scary in my opinion too but not because the two drops are similar (since they have absolutely no similarity) but only because the chart of these two times looks the same!
which makes wonder about the reason why we ended up seeing the same chart when the situation today has nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.

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December 15, 2018, 04:31:19 AM
 #10

should this support fail then we are simply screwed  Grin.

so if things are too bad for bitcoin, we can only do this:



we need to take a holiday so that we can relax and forget the price for a while, people are getting paranoid because the price is falling a lot, before I saw people saying it will fall to $3000, then I heard it will fall to $1500, then I heard it's going to fall to $1000 and then I heard it's going to fall to $600
We are really getting paranoid as the days goes by which we do really stressed out ourselves too much on the current market condition not only on BTC but on some alts as well.
Speculative market do have continuous speculative views so I'm aint surprised that we would able to hear out different numbers along the way.

 
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December 15, 2018, 04:42:15 AM
 #11

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.

all that needs to happen is for selling to dry up. nothing needs to fundamentally change or improve. it's just a matter of supply and demand. bitcoin's market value is mostly based on speculation about future adoption and future utility IMO. people aren't going to sell based on scaling woes any more than they did in 2016 or 2017.

there are two long term pivots at $3k visible on the monthly chart, and the monthly 50ma / weekly 200ma are both in this area. shorts are also near historical highs. so there's a confluence of technical reasons for a major bottom here.

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December 15, 2018, 06:19:24 AM
 #12

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.

most of the things you said here are wrong and all of them are irrelevant to price!
for starters most investors in bitcoin has never given a shit about its scaling. most of them are in it for the money or are in it for the freedom thanks to its decentralization and lack of government involvement.
as for altcoins, ICOs and all that crap, none of them are truly dead. they are just undergoing their natural course of getting pumped and then dumped. and again nobody gives a shit about KYC not to mention that there is no KYC more than it was in 2017.

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December 15, 2018, 09:38:38 AM
 #13


should this support fail then we are simply screwed  Grin.


You screwed us! The whalecumulators are always scanning this forum to find opportunities to disappoint the plebs!

Or are you sent by the whalecumulators, to start this topic, to give us hope, and only for "them" to crash the market again?

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gabmen
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December 15, 2018, 01:43:28 PM
 #14


should this support fail then we are simply screwed  Grin.


You screwed us! The whalecumulators are always scanning this forum to find opportunities to disappoint the plebs!

Or are you sent by the whalecumulators, to start this topic, to give us hope, and only for "them" to crash the market again?

One thing i've learned that it's not really reliable to base things from historical charts anymore. That's why we're in this kind of mess since many people were expecting an upward turn since historically, charts indicate that last quarters of recent years were more bullish.

 
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December 15, 2018, 01:53:32 PM
 #15

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.

Smart money is buying while everyone else is crying and screaming.  They do the opposite of what the mainstream noobs are doing.  There is just too much money in vested in crypto infrastructure for it to fail and a lot of people in government own crypto so they want to see it succeed.  One thing is for sure, this is thel ast chance we will have to get rich off crypto.
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December 15, 2018, 01:58:09 PM
 #16

This is a possible scenario indeed but between theory and practice, there is always a difference... Even if I like this situation enough, I don't think the same thing will happen. We are in unknown territory at the moment, and the sphere is really different compared to 2013-015, there are many more things to consider.

It's almost scary how similar the post 2013 bull run correction is compared to the correction we're going through right now.

it is scary in my opinion too but not because the two drops are similar (since they have absolutely no similarity) but only because the chart of these two times looks the same!
which makes wonder about the reason why we ended up seeing the same chart when the situation today has nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.

This.

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December 15, 2018, 03:59:25 PM
 #17

There is nothing firmly stating it could go down %85 before it takes off, I mean price doesn't really have to drop %85 exactly like it did previously, it could go down 90% or it could go down %80 and nothing would change. It will eventually go up that is the most certain part of this calculation, I am not sure what the bottom will be but I know the price won't be capped around here and eventually go back to previous all time high prices and go even above those prices, this maybe in couple months or in couple years but it will eventually happen.

What this tells all of us is that even if you buy right now and the price goes lower there is no need to worry because in couple years you will have an investment that made you quadruple of your investment and even more. We just don't know WHEN that will happen but we know it WILL happen.
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December 15, 2018, 04:20:29 PM
 #18

Can't say I'm not liking the chart, but I'm now quite careful when we talk about lines that are never crossed yet or thresholds never broken. Bitcoin's been doing new things in the past 2 years, bucking RSI trends, breaking 30, 60 and then whatever-day average lines, so if we see BTC fall below 2.5k (certainly not implausible now) then yeah, we're pretty much in yet further new territory.

I'm "liking" 300 days of sideways movement though. It's what I'd been expecting for a long time, but if I've learnt any lessons, 2019's going to surprise in some fashion.

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December 15, 2018, 04:40:38 PM
 #19

Really i don't know if the price will go to 2500$, but i can't be sure of nothing, anyway i will still hold and wait for the bull run even if will not start next year, i can wait, but i think in 2019 we will have a bull run.

 
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December 15, 2018, 04:47:06 PM
 #20

Considering that during a bear market every bit of bad news will more likely impact the price, it will be interesting to see whether or not Bakkt will be given permission to launch their Bitcoin backed futures.

If not, we might be up for even more blood on the streets. The CFTC might very well consider the current market to not be a healthy environment to launch these products in, all to "protect" investors.

Or they simply don't want any product that's backed with Bitcoin. Based on that, I think it's more likely to see Bakkt yet again delay their launch than to have them launch next month. We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic.
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