Tom Lee's final analysis of the year

[timerland]

Lmao. Can't believe that he actually is blaming the "markets" for not reaching the price targets that he has constantly set.

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

No one is asking them for target prices. He is the one that is putting it out there for mainstream media to make articles on. He is also the one that has constantly changing his predictions, without any tangible backing.

With such a bearish sentimented market, I really don't see any chance that bitcoin will be able to rebound to its "fair value" (which he randomly set at $13k-14k, again without any actual analysis backing it) any time in the near future.

Market prices are never determined by a "fair value", it's never that simple. Also, there is no absolute "fair value". IIRC, even he had predictions of BTC going way above the fair value estimate by the end of the year, although that prediction has been replaced by many more new ones now.

[bbc.reporter]

@timerland. I predict Tom Lee's next statement would be Hold, you cannot lose if you don't sell hehehe. That advice is good for bitcoin and some cryptocoins, however it would also be showing the bagholders' attitude of giving up and blindly holding on.

[cellard]

Lmao. Can't believe that he actually is blaming the "markets" for not reaching the price targets that he has constantly set.

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

No one is asking them for target prices. He is the one that is putting it out there for mainstream media to make articles on. He is also the one that has constantly changing his predictions, without any tangible backing.

With such a bearish sentimented market, I really don't see any chance that bitcoin will be able to rebound to its "fair value" (which he randomly set at $13k-14k, again without any actual analysis backing it) any time in the near future.

Market prices are never determined by a "fair value", it's never that simple. Also, there is no absolute "fair value". IIRC, even he had predictions of BTC going way above the fair value estimate by the end of the year, although that prediction has been replaced by many more new ones now.

It would be cool if guys like this sold. I don't really know who Tom Lee is beyond some asian guy that goes on CNBC to talk about Bitcoin from time to time so im not going to judge him, what I mean is that generally, it's a good sign when we see "famous bitcoin people" selling, because that is how markets typically capitulate. Case in point, this idiot just said that Bitcoin is dead and whatnot:


https://www.ccn.com/teenage-crypto-millionaire-erik-finman-says-bitcoin-is-pretty-much-dead-offers-hope-for-bitcoin-cash/

I wonder if he got paid by Ver to shill his BCash and whatever other altcoins he's holding. Anyway, idiots with big tweeter megaphones selling on a bear market: Get ready to buy, we are nearing the bottom.

[BrewMaster]

@timerland. I predict Tom Lee's next statement would be Hold, you cannot lose if you don't sell hehehe. That advice is good for bitcoin and some cryptocoins, however it would also be showing the bagholders' attitude of giving up and blindly holding on.

saying "hold" now is not a bad suggestion actually! and it doesn't make you a bag holder if you hold now. right now is not the bubble burst of $20k that makes holding bad, there is no drop going on either. we are 80% down already.
in fact selling now makes you a dumb person. it would be like going to a party after the party is over, everyone has left, the food is gone and then start wooing your way in

[bbc.reporter]

@BrewMaster. Yes it is. However, it is only because he has no other strategy but to be a bagholder.

Bagholders have become the most ardent supporters of the coin they are holding. I would expect Tom Lee to be our loudest supporter on 2019 hehehe.

[WinslowIII]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.


Bullish Tom Lee

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

Read the full article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

If that isn't a face that just got wrecked I don't know what is. I guess a noose around his neck would give the ultimate wrecked face. Let's face it, this dude needs to just stfu and watch like the rest of us.

[hahay]

What about the increase that is happening now, is that possible if the predictions will become a reality?
Although it seems impossible, but I hope the prediction will at least be close to the predicted value at the end of the year and I'm ready to sell.

[Herbert2020]

What about the increase that is happening now, is that possible if the predictions will become a reality?
Although it seems impossible, but I hope the prediction will at least be close to the predicted value at the end of the year and I'm ready to sell.

most of these predictions were outrageously high. like for example Tom Lee has been speculating a new ATH by the end of this year not just a regular rise. a regular rise would have been more possible (like going back up above $9k) but setting a new ATH is simply not going to happen soon after a big bubble burst like what we had this year.

[el kaka22]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).

You cannot assume a fair value for bitcoin but it should be derived based on few bitcoin ecosystem parameters like the total active wallets/address, in and out per address and factors which are determining the supply. Even it is an approximate estimation, it is similar to any commodity/stocks/bonds' fair value calculations. Moreover, everything in this world may have a fair value but it is an rough-estimate of actual value. "Fair-value" is a most common term in trading houses.

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k.

Any bitcoiner who is following the markets for years, will definitely say that the current prices are a definite wrong. I like Tom Lee's faith on bitcoin's future and that is the reason he still has not changed his year end predictions. I believe he will be at least 50% true with his price levels by end of this year.

[elloco4ever]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).

You cannot assume a fair value for bitcoin but it should be derived based on few bitcoin ecosystem parameters like the total active wallets/address, in and out per address and factors which are determining the supply. Even it is an approximate estimation, it is similar to any commodity/stocks/bonds' fair value calculations. Moreover, everything in this world may have a fair value but it is an rough-estimate of actual value. "Fair-value" is a most common term in trading houses.

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k.

Any bitcoiner who is following the markets for years, will definitely say that the current prices are a definite wrong. I like Tom Lee's faith on bitcoin's future and that is the reason he still has not changed his year end predictions. I believe he will be at least 50% true with his price levels by end of this year.

Yes you are right, his experience in this field speak about his prediction. No one cannot easily predict the market but yes Tom Lee might be right in his statement. Like you said we can expect atleast a 50% reality with his price levels, However there is no guarantee in crypto let us wait till is end to the year for a change.

[davinchi]

He doesn't know what bitcoin will do no more than any of us. He might have some experience in the field of economics but it doesn't really reflect on something as volatile as bitcoin. He might have been right and the price could have been 10+ thousand dollars if the bitcoin cash war thing didn't happen, I mean we don't know maybe the price would have gone down anyway or stayed the same or went up, its just a "if" scenario so we are not really sure about it.

Tom Lee doesn't really care about the price anymore than us as well in the sense that when he makes a number and tells it he doesn't really has a big math behind that logic, he just makes it up just like the people come here and write "bitcoin will be $1k" and leave, its just a speculation and nothing more than that.

[exstasie]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).

You cannot assume a fair value for bitcoin but it should be derived based on few bitcoin ecosystem parameters like the total active wallets/address, in and out per address and factors which are determining the supply. Even it is an approximate estimation, it is similar to any commodity/stocks/bonds' fair value calculations. Moreover, everything in this world may have a fair value but it is an rough-estimate of actual value. "Fair-value" is a most common term in trading houses.

No way, these ideas don't apply to Bitcoin. The fundamentals from analyzing blockchain activity are really opaque. We don't know if lost coins are really lost or when existing wallets will become active. We can't know how expansive a network is (or how many users there are) just by looking at transactions. It's impossible to know how many entities are involved, how much is merely inefficient or unnecessary movement of coins or spam. In terms of Metcalfe's Law, we can't extrapolate number of users from number of wallets, but even if we could, we still can't put a "number" on its value.

[posi]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).

You cannot assume a fair value for bitcoin but it should be derived based on few bitcoin ecosystem parameters like the total active wallets/address, in and out per address and factors which are determining the supply. Even it is an approximate estimation, it is similar to any commodity/stocks/bonds' fair value calculations. Moreover, everything in this world may have a fair value but it is an rough-estimate of actual value. "Fair-value" is a most common term in trading houses.

No way, these ideas don't apply to Bitcoin. The fundamentals from analyzing blockchain activity are really opaque. We don't know if lost coins are really lost or when existing wallets will become active. We can't know how expansive a network is (or how many users there are) just by looking at transactions. It's impossible to know how many entities are involved, how much is merely inefficient or unnecessary movement of coins or spam. In terms of Metcalfe's Law, we can't extrapolate number of users from number of wallets, but even if we could, we still can't put a "number" on its value.

I agree with what you said and I'm not always serious about any statement made by this person(Tom Lee,McAfee etc.) because they are just admirers of bitcoin, they have money than us and all they do is manipulate the market through there voice or social media account so we can follow their statement while they make more money out of us.

[wedatin]

Fair market for some of my coins was 17k, next is 50k, and 100k, then some are priced at 1 million each.   Hey, I determine what I sell my coins for.    Good luck, I'll never completely sell all for inflated fiat though.

17k maybe later next year. 50k maybe 2020.

[bbc.reporter]

What about the increase that is happening now, is that possible if the predictions will become a reality?
Although it seems impossible, but I hope the prediction will at least be close to the predicted value at the end of the year and I'm ready to sell.

Hehehe that might be the reason why bitcoin will not reach near its predicted value because you and many others like you have the same plan. However, the others are planning to dump before you on $5k.

[Slow death]

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong.

who decides the price is the sellers and the buyers

He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.

 

he is upset because his prediction that the price would be $15,000 by the end of the year has failed and this is affecting his ego.


Tom Lee Maintains $15,000 Year-End BTC Prediction Despite Market Crash

the current price of bitcoin is $4100 and are missing 11 days to 2019 ... so there is no chance of his prediction becoming real and he knows it and so now says that the market is unfair

[eroejoe]

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).
I guess that Tom Lee just wants to spread some optimism amongst the small traders/newbies.He doesn't want to make a proper analysis.

I think that we do not need to give attention to guys like Tom Lee, he is speaking about his speculation, his analysis is never proved right, or I did not heard that he was right even single time.

[Slow death]

his analysis is never proved right...

Aug. 18, 2017, 12:24 PM

Wall Street's biggest bear thinks bitcoin will surge to $6,000

on August 18, 2017 the price was $4200 and Tom Lee was right in his prediction, of course this was luck, but he was right on his price forecast. These guys hit it lucky so we should not believe their predictions

[bbc.reporter]

@Slow death. I reckon Tom Lee might be making a similar example of how newbies make and however lost their investment in bitcoin speculation. There are victims in every bubble hehehe.

[WinslowIII]

Looks like idiot tom lee is giving up https://cryptonews.com/news/tom-lee-gives-up-on-forecasting-bitcoin-price-3110.htm

I stopped listening to anything he had to say along with taking litecoin seriously when he announced he sold all his litecoin. I have absolutely no idea why people here keep talking about him.
Actions speak louder than words, he exited out of all his crypto at a great time, people who followed his lead vs listened to his horseshit predictions came out very well.