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Author Topic: How do play this momentum?  (Read 495 times)
timotron (OP)
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December 19, 2018, 10:00:18 AM
 #1

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!


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December 19, 2018, 10:31:07 AM
 #2

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!



I won't start thinking this is too positive until BTC price breaks $4500, that for me would be a big signal that a reversal is near or already in progress. This is one of the first times in the last few months that BTC (and the whole market) has had a day of big increases, followed by a lull and then another day of big increases. Previously it had always been big increases followed by a slow slide back to the previous support level.

So my strategy is hold and wait, but at least enjoy seeing some green!

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December 19, 2018, 11:29:58 AM
 #3

If you want to go aggressive then OP might fit your bill. But if you're not sure of what to do because this might be a bull trap then I guess is just to hold and wait. For me breaking $3800 will be a big psychological test and so if it could build a momentum to $4000. Waking up with a good pump was always a thing to behold specially with what we witnessed in almost a year. But don't celebrate yet but scramble and look at what strategy your going to implement before everything breaks loose.  Grin

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December 19, 2018, 12:24:05 PM
 #4

If you want to go aggressive then OP might fit your bill. But if you're not sure of what to do because this might be a bull trap then I guess is just to hold and wait. For me breaking $3800 will be a big psychological test and so if it could build a momentum to $4000. Waking up with a good pump was always a thing to behold specially with what we witnessed in almost a year. But don't celebrate yet but scramble and look at what strategy your going to implement before everything breaks loose.  Grin

I too am looking at this as a bull trap for now and am steering well clear of making any significant movements. At this point I see the risk in either direction being too high so the best strategy is to stay put. I can not be confident enough in my conviction that this is a bull trap but I hope that I am wrong. Unless you enjoy trading very short term volatility with high risk then right now is not the time for action.

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December 19, 2018, 01:25:27 PM
 #5


Oh I'm not betting it on a 10% price increase with nothing worth to hype about. Its just too soon and I don't wanna be hasty so I guess I'm also on team play safe for now. Just gonna watch the market and scream YES if there's a significant price increase.

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December 19, 2018, 02:25:08 PM
 #6

To my opinion it's too eary yet to make any conclusions.
This might be the sign of potential revovery but according to previous experiences from many years spent with Bitcoin it's wise to wait next couple of days before making any conclusions or predictions.
But I think this is good moment for quick win trading on a daily basis. Soon situation might change in the opposite direction again.

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December 19, 2018, 02:35:06 PM
 #7

I wouldn't be too optimistic at this moment, and would tread carefully and not get impulse buys. This could be another bull trap setup just like the previous run to $4000 then back to $3200, or this time even worse. Even though the resistance level $3700 was recently broken, I still don't believe that we already have the strength to push forward and settle on to a new range. I could be wrong though as the upward movements seem to not be contested by the bears in any way, and short positions are already removed in some of the exchanges I frequent on.

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December 19, 2018, 03:21:12 PM
 #8

Don't go long for now. I am seeing a major head and shoulder forming in the 15 minute chart we are currently forming the right shoulder so we need to set some precautions on our trades, if BTC breaks 3,750 let us expect that the correction will be confirmed and shorting it now might be a good idea while you still see your portfolio green. Keep in mind that the bear market is still not over this is just a price rally we are experiencing in this season there is nothing major about it except for a play of profit.

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December 20, 2018, 09:36:19 AM
 #9

Don't go long for now. I am seeing a major head and shoulder forming in the 15 minute chart we are currently forming the right shoulder so we need to set some precautions on our trades, if BTC breaks 3,750 let us expect that the correction will be confirmed and shorting it now might be a good idea while you still see your portfolio green. Keep in mind that the bear market is still not over this is just a price rally we are experiencing in this season there is nothing major about it except for a play of profit.

How can you be sure that the bear market isn't over? It's too soon to say for definite that it is but this bullish movement could be the start of the reversal. Personally I would avoid any shorts below a price of $6000. The potential for loss seems much higher than the potential for gain. Most people here suspect a bullish market will return eventually, if it comes earlier than expected your shorts are going to become very costly.

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December 20, 2018, 09:58:30 AM
 #10

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

at the end of a bear market, they tend to look the same because bears are still in control. take 2015 for instance. the bottom came in january, but the first rally to the $300s was quickly sold down. it looked like a bull trap and most people expected the bear market to continue. in hindsight, it was the beginning of the bull market. but it wasn't obvious until october or so, ~9 months after we hit the bottom.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

i'm not even touching alts yet. i prefer to trade bitcoin futures on bitmex right now. i only like alts when it's super easy money---"alt season". when literally everything pumps.

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December 20, 2018, 12:27:39 PM
 #11

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!



Since yesterday morning I think what this price rise means. I had hoped that the real price was the rise and the bullish pre-collection of power. But what will we do if it is the Bull trap?
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December 20, 2018, 04:23:46 PM
 #12

Honestly I just wanted to get out for a while. I will definitely get back and I am already working on some stuff that will get me more bitcoins and that is the important part but for me right now the real question was am I happy with this price and can I get out of bitcoin and sustain my life with the fiat I get for a while before I can actually build up more bitcoins later on.

If I can work for the next 5 weeks with the money I have and not spend the money I will make from now on, that means I will be in profit which is all I cared about honestly. That is why I am out of bitcoin for the day but in 5 weeks time I am hoping to be in bitcoin a lot more. If you ask me, if you can afford to leave, leave right now, sell your coins and get out, than start getting back into bitcoin once the price settles to something less volatile.
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December 20, 2018, 06:36:14 PM
 #13

I'll be waiting for drops back in the 3000s to buy more, already bought a bunch in the 3000s the past few weeks.

Pretty sure price will fluctuate in the 3000s and 4000s for months to come, will be looking to buy whenever it is in the lower range.
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December 20, 2018, 06:58:30 PM
 #14

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

Let's wait for the next few days that we will discover.


My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!

I agree with the strategy on bitcoin. but honestly these altcoins are a great loss of time and money, the altcoins go up a lot without any reason and they fall a lot for no reason, I saw something that left me very shocked:

A few weeks ago a certain creator of a certain altcoin went to twitter and made his announcement and minutes later altcoin rose 15%, hours later altcoin rose 35%... but when I paid attention to the announcement I wondered:

he made an announcement and it was not a partnership, it was an announcement of implementation of a technology, but that does not mean that altcoin will have much demand in the future, so what was the reason for that altcoin to rise 35%? result days later altcoin fell 40% and did not rise any more. In fact in January of last year the same altcoin was worth 0.004btc and today is worth 0.001 btc. Be careful with altcoins

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December 20, 2018, 07:54:26 PM
 #15

Track the 8 day average which is roughly 4hr bars and 50 MA     Thats your short term momentum, we go up and down within that but I call that the phase change.  When above this line we are positive as now and many look for long play and below it speculators will try to make a quick buck off catching shorts.

Right this moment in time I was watching 4050 and there a fib level support at 4000,  so really thats my line in the sand to watch the tide change .    We have the idea of 4500 and much higher above but also the possible pullback to check previous support was good

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December 20, 2018, 11:15:53 PM
 #16

I don't think these charts mean anything any more, the unpredictability means all these experts and analysts are making all sorts of predictions. One of them is bound to be right and then that person is deemed to be the oracle of btc prices

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December 20, 2018, 11:25:46 PM
 #17

interesting ideas going around, cool strategies too!

I just have this phrase in my mind the whole day...

   There is just one way for BTC, and it is UP!

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December 20, 2018, 11:32:10 PM
 #18


No strategy at all at the moment. Just executed it recently.

This recent price increase should not be taken as big deal for now in terms of speculating "much especially" at;
a) "if this will be the start of the bull run"
b) "is this a bull trap"
c) "are whales manipulating again the market"

Let's allow the progress for at least several days before we can somehow conclude another positive speculation on our book of expectations.

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December 21, 2018, 06:00:10 PM
 #19

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!



That's going to be a little agressive for me though. Determining if it's a good time to buy or sell will be quite a challenge and getting too carried away may prove to be costly. I probably will pass making any major move.

 
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December 21, 2018, 08:51:45 PM
 #20

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!



I honestly think that this is a bull trap.

You might see a few short term cycles of oscillating prices between $3k-5k, but I don't think that it's going to go above this range at the moment. Compared to the last bear markets, there is still quite some time to go before the time elapsed from the 2017 ATH matches the time taken for the recovery from the 2015 bear market to occur.

Prices have corrected quite a bit today, and it seems like that even $4k is posing significant resistance. My strategy right now is still accumulating, since I have always believed that anything below $6k is worthwhile to do dollar cost averaging on. I wouldn't bother trading the short term price fluctuations, if your end goal is to hold for the long run.
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December 21, 2018, 10:52:15 PM
 #21

For me right now it’s a good time to collect coins if you have spare cash. If your plan is long term investing then  don’t wait for the lowest bottom because you will miss the train. Just start buying in small amounts every few days and take an average of all. Any sub 6.000 is good for me to buy. And I just plan to sell some when it gets to 30K even if it takes a few more years to wait.


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December 21, 2018, 11:24:28 PM
 #22

For me right now it’s a good time to collect coins if you have spare cash. If your plan is long term investing then  don’t wait for the lowest bottom because you will miss the train. Just start buying in small amounts every few days and take an average of all. Any sub 6.000 is good for me to buy. And I just plan to sell some when it gets to 30K even if it takes a few more years to wait.


Yes, definitely a good time to start but considering for a long term investment, you better won't do it. With the current system and its volatility risk, it is better to indulge into short term investment. There is no guarantee for the price hike in the future and took advantage in every pumps happen.
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December 22, 2018, 03:08:27 PM
 #23

Look to find appropriate times to short. I think this is a temporary recovery so look for the right time to set a short and take advantage of falling prices. Even if the market does recover then there's going to be a lot of bumps along the road, shorts will make great profit in those.

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December 22, 2018, 04:49:20 PM
 #24

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!

Exactly good luck you will need. Why dont you just try to gather as much wealth as you can and buy Bitcoins now and whole 2019 and securely store them. In 2-3 years when next ATH is expected spend some and store the rest for your future.  This way you risk nothing. With trading you risk a lot because it will need just one "mistake" and you will lose everything.
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December 27, 2018, 11:19:04 PM
 #25

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!


The market will not enter in a bull run soon, so the most likely scenario is that we are looking at a bull trap however some coins could show some recovery once in a while thanks to the active development of their developers but you need to read the news of those coins to know if the growth could be sustained or if there is nothing happening in that coin and the growth was caused by speculation.
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December 28, 2018, 08:29:40 AM
 #26

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!

I definitely don't expect the bullish momentum in the past few weeks to continue for much longer. We are already seeing some major resistance at the $4k level, which is not really surprising at all given the fear and uncertainty that is still within the market, which is characteristic of capitulating investors.

Long term wise, this is an excellent point to buy still. Regardless of whether or not there is a short term rally, prices are still under $5k, and I believe that level should be quite low when compared to the potential that bitcoin has in the future with mass adoption, and institutional use.

However, I wouldn't trade on leverage in neither long nor short because I simply don't think that it's worth the risk given the volatility. There is every possibility that a short term rally or dump could happen, without any signs beforehand. Unless you're an actual day trader, I would only view this market as a long term accumulating opportunity, and not trade the peaks and troughs between week or month long cycles.

Smiley
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December 28, 2018, 10:16:46 AM
 #27

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!



it is very difficult to determine every choice in trade or investment speculation. market turmoil is difficult to predict. so I don't do a lot of investment activities, but I can trade when the market grows even temporarily.

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December 28, 2018, 01:54:03 PM
 #28

Looks like a bull trap since the prices gone down again after the holidays so this is just happened because of enthusiasm among the crypto currencies that prices will increase after this Christmas and New year.
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December 31, 2018, 10:36:50 AM
 #29

Based on prices today it appears that the crypto market pump was just a bull trap due to the over powering nature of the bears. No-one should be worried though as the bakkt is only a few weeks away, unless there is another delay due to the US shutdown
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January 01, 2019, 01:06:59 PM
 #30

It's difficult to predict the crypto market but we can research the market trend and decide base on those data. I think the best strategy with this market situation is to accumulate more bitcoin if you can afford to invest more money. Yeah it could be high risk but you can gain huge profits if you buy it while the price is at lower level. It's still bitcoin the best currency that will bring the cyptomarket to a bullish if we have patience to wait until it fully recovers.
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January 02, 2019, 02:01:55 PM
 #31

Based on prices today it appears that the crypto market pump was just a bull trap due to the over powering nature of the bears. No-one should be worried though as the bakkt is only a few weeks away, unless there is another delay due to the US shutdown
Today the price increase is happening again and in my opinion this is not a trap, but this is a sign if market conditions will recover soon. believe me this year everything will be better.
Happy New Year  Smiley

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January 03, 2019, 08:52:47 AM
 #32

Is this another bull trap? Or first sing of bull market beginnings?

My strategy is the following:

Bet on trends, holding and selling tops (try at least), re-buying at few % drops, wait till next station.

Once made some profits, bet on other coins which did not start the uptrend, or are at the beginning of the up-trend.

Attention with people selling ALTs for $BTC !! Don't forget the Stop-loss!

Good luck all!



Just hope it's not a bull trap, but I think it's not because we see many altcoin and bitcoin make an increasing since December and although there was a correction, some altcoin still increase. You have a good strategy, and it could apply at the market only if the coin is up and down in daily or weekly. But if the coin cannot go up and still on the lower price for a long time, then you need to cut loss the coin or hold it until the price can increase back.

Usually, I don't make a stop-loss in trading because I've always watched the market movements so if the price is down, I will prepare to re-buying especially if the down price is more than 10% drops. I am sure if the coin is down, it will bounce up to the highest price and believe it or not, we can see it's happening in the market.

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January 06, 2019, 09:43:40 PM
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 #33

Sometimes it is much easier and safer not to try to trade and not to try to maximize profits, but simply to keep the coins you have. Because selling your asset you can then not have time to buy it back for the reason that the price for it will change a lot and you will be late. Risking this way can only those who have good experience in trading.
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January 06, 2019, 10:28:08 PM
 #34

Usually, I don't make a stop-loss in trading because I've always watched the market movements so if the price is down, I will prepare to re-buying especially if the down price is more than 10% drops. I am sure if the coin is down, it will bounce up to the highest price and believe it or not, we can see it's happening in the market.
I assume you are referring to longer term 'trading' (i.e. buy low sell high) rather than day trading? Otherwise it makes no sense to ignore stop losses, especially if leverage is involved.

People ignore how important stop losses are. I have seen how newbies have no clue about why their balance on Bitmex has been wiped out, where they in some cases accuse Bitmex of stealing their funds, lol. It's mind boggling how stupid people are. Using an exchange you think works the same as a spot exchange is fatal.

Sometimes it is much easier and safer not to try to trade and not to try to maximize profits, but simply to keep the coins you have.
Finally someone with sense in here. There is no point in forcing yourself to trade each and every time. Accept that holding your coins is better than losing them, especially when a market has broken its main support level.
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January 06, 2019, 10:34:22 PM
 #35

I can only see a zone of accumulation between 3200 and 4600. So in this case in any fall greater than 5% I try to buy or readjust my positions in the projects that I believe the most. But I was wrong in the 5k believing that it was also a zone of accumulation. So... Sad
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January 07, 2019, 06:15:53 AM
 #36

One way with the right amount of risk/reward is basically to use a website which tracks liquidations and open interest such as

https://tensorcharts.com/u/bitmexstats

Look for any pivots which result in a large open interest reduction or any red/green spikes which indicate margin calls.

Generally price reverses at these levels because traders are too predictable where they put their stop losses or where they get their accounts liquidated.

Just do the complete opposite and you have the upper hand because your stop loss will be very tight and your profit potential is huge.

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January 07, 2019, 11:00:39 AM
 #37

I honestly think that this is a bull trap

There's too many such traps recently

Which makes one question the validity of the concept as it pertains to this state of the market. More likely, it is just volatility that got carried away due to lack of both supply and demand. There is a lack of supply at the lower end of the range (i.e. below 3.5k) and a lack of demand at the higher end of it (i.e. above 4k). So we are kinda stuck in this blind alley. How long it is going to last no one knows for sure, so trade the range while you can

With that said, though, don't forget that the longer the price stays in a certain range, the stronger will be the next break-out as it tacitly builds momentum. The last time the price had seemingly stabilized or even stagnated (depending on your perspective), it ended with a monumental crash, a mother of all crashes, that had eaten away over 50% of Bitcoin's value within just a few short weeks

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January 07, 2019, 02:29:41 PM
 #38

Its happening again, another easy pump and maybe a bull trap again. I play safely during this trend, I don’t trade much and I only buy bitcoin and some coins on its dump price. This year looks so great for me as the ETF have the chance now to be approved and for sure it can help the market much. Make a good start now to get more coins.

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January 08, 2019, 04:28:03 PM
 #39

I can only see a zone of accumulation between 3200 and 4600. So in this case in any fall greater than 5% I try to buy or readjust my positions in the projects that I believe the most. But I was wrong in the 5k believing that it was also a zone of accumulation. So... Sad
It is not such a big deal, in a few years you will see your prediction and you will laugh about the fact that you were worried about buying bitcoin at 5000, the price of bitcoin will go many times higher than its current price and once that happens a few hundreds of dollars of difference in the price that you paid to get them will not make such a huge difference, just make sure you can hold your coins long enough to see positive results and your strategy will work perfectly.

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...Next Generation Crypto Casino...
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