Bull Run or Dead Cat Bouncing ?

[Zin-Zang]

Opinions on Recent Market Upswing

Bull Run




OR



Dead Cat Bouncing




 

[RussaX]

Maybe you are too late buying at the best price. I am positive that we might not see 3200 again but don't get me wrong I don't think that we will get bull run but rather reach stable market at around 4-6k for the next months.

Investors have got excited and this uptrend is just chain reaction because people fear of missing out so we might get small correction but uptrend might continue.

[franky1]

bull run=
2016 $300^
2017 $900^
2018 $3200^

daily/weekly volatility=
cubs(small bears) v
calves(small bulls)^

personally i use the mining cost/market dynamic numbers to help find the bottomline support which has been a good guide for years of knowing the bottom.

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

[NeuroticFish]

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

Interesting. However, many have claimed that 6000$ was the bottom because it was close to the mining costs. (I didn't agree back then, I claimed the mining costs are not so well known.)
We are still under 4000$, so either miners are mining at a loss and still don't care, either the mining cost was close to 3000$-3500$.
Only in this case your theory could be correct, although historically (eg when Bitcoin has fallen under 250$ in 2015 and stayed low for almost a year) the price has its periods when it was clearly under the mining costs.

[ngm22585]

Bull run, in my opinion.

[nghiemtamk]

 

I would say neither. It is a positive move toward a bull run, but I don't think that we will see a real effect of it before the next year.

[avikz]

It is entirely based on the timeline you are considering to determine whether it is a bull run or dead cat bounce. Simple enough!

If you are comparing with the late 2017 - dead cat bouncing!

If you are an early starter - Bull run, most certainly!

Hope this helps!

[jawakoak]

bullrun or not, who bought some coin last week make a lot of profit right now, waves and doge its look like have bullrun first

[kelz1]

I'm betting that this is just a dead cat bounce, the bears have full control over this market and they can dump it down anytime. Bull run will begin in January next year as bakkt is released

[Kiryahs]

Sell everything and buy back in january

[AB de Royse777]

bull run=
2016 $300^
2017 $900^
2018 $3200^

200% gain from 2016 to 2017.
255.56% gain from 2017 to 2018.
In 2019 if it gains just 200% then price will be $9600^

I am wondering what will it be for real in 2019.

[irenegaming]

I think it can be a combination of both, right now people are so exeptic that they wouldn't recognize a bull run even if it happened for a continuous month, so we have to wait and see what really happens, who can blame them, with this disastrous market falling all year long.

[ranman09]

If you are comparing with the late 2017 - dead cat bouncing!

If you are an early starter - Bull run, most certainly!

haha! you're right, It depends on how you look at the charts. Better consider the history next time starters. History repeats itself.

[bhabygrim]

It is really hard to say but it could be a Dead cat bounce,
But we are all hoping for a bull run,
We still have to monitor it to know if it is a bull run or a dead cat bounce.

[coinlocket$]

Reading around the web it seems to be bouncing, it seems a huge pump with low trust, but hey we had people on 2017 betting on bitcoin at 100k by the end of 2018  .

[ramesh770]

bull run=
2016 $300^
2017 $900^
2018 $3200^

daily/weekly volatility=
cubs(small bears) v
calves(small bulls)^

personally i use the mining cost/market dynamic numbers to help find the bottomline support which has been a good guide for years of knowing the bottom.

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

So as per your view right now it is just preparing the next bull run, but it will take some more time to jump ATH, but now if i am not wrong $3100 wont break. So it is good time to start accumulating bitcoins

[Crypto_Samuel]

I will be sure it's a bullrun when BTC breaks resistance around the $4K mark, that can open the door for a move towards $4,5K.

[suzanne5223]

It is entirely based on the timeline you are considering to determine whether it is a bull run or dead cat bounce. Simple enough!

If you are comparing with the late 2017 - dead cat bouncing!

If you are an early starter - Bull run, most certainly!

Hope this helps!

Yes, the time line can be use to know what the side which the crypto market drift to but I want you to know that the graph representation is also a guessing type of prediction because every thing is rely on the mining status. However, I presume we're yet to reach the bull run market.

[Asian_Dynasty]

Opinions on Recent Market Upswing

Bull Run




OR



Dead Cat Bouncing




 

I think Dead Cat Bouncing 

[franky1]

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

Interesting. However, many have claimed that 6000$ was the bottom because it was close to the mining costs. (I didn't agree back then, I claimed the mining costs are not so well known.)
We are still under 4000$, so either miners are mining at a loss and still don't care, either the mining cost was close to 3000$-3500$.
Only in this case your theory could be correct, although historically (eg when Bitcoin has fallen under 250$ in 2015 and stayed low for almost a year) the price has its periods when it was clearly under the mining costs.

PRICE is not the underlying value
first 3 quarters of 2018 $5800 was a good measure.. then in october hashrate curved down. and then price curved down in november.


in 2015
the hashrate was between 250peta-400petahash during the stagnant period which doing math of asics at the time... it was break even/profitable there was a bit in august 2015 which touched on the break-even testing the bottomline.. then by autumn the hashrate and the market price moved up