ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be

[figmentofmyass]

The reason more simply put then this magic cloud stuff is moving averages and because its easily understood this might make it a similar correlating strong factor behind this area being the very lowest.

I had never considered this but the moving 200 week average is at these prices apparently.   I never consider that but true enough look back and this MA has marked near bottom pricing over the long term average trend which overall has been up.

yeah, masterluc and some others are pointing to the 200 MA as a bottoming factor. the thing about that is, we spiked below it twice in 2015 when the market was capitulating. we should probably still be prepared for that.

btw, ichimoku is based on moving averages. it just compares multiple periods instead of a single lookback. you have your fast MA and your slow MA (crosses result in a bullish vs bearish cloud) and S/R based on a lagging span. it's useful for quickly getting a holistic view of things.

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[riska hanissa]

It's a good idea to include the time frame on the chart that you shared, or better if you give a direct chart link to trading view.

Maybe what you analyze can indeed be sideways in a few months, for the lowest price "tf gives different results.

[mikeywith]

It's a good idea to include the time frame on the chart that you shared

it's in the first line "weekly chart". thanks

[glowing10]

I think that this could be the bottom out price available for this year and might not return for long time so people who even have 100$ should invest in this market because that could really give multiple times return in this year if you stay invested with top coins .

[Wilhelm]

I think most would agree that $3k is the current bottom.

[wuvdoll]

The problem is that ichimoku only deals with the stats and charts and so forth we have, it can give you the result as long as you provide it with data. All the above, there are data that we do not posses in chart shape which also affects the price considerably.

I expected this withdrawal from contention of the SEC deal would bring the price down a lot but apparently some people heard about it earlier and managed to get out a lot faster and dropped the price already. There are some "news" that we hear all the time that affects the price which ichimoku can not really show. What if a whale comes up and sells 50 thousand bitcoins all at once tomorrow, what will happen to price ?

It will bottom really hard, probably close to 1000 dollar levels, can ichimoku predict that? No. Hence use this method to understand what market is "supposed to" do but also be careful.

[exstasie]

I think most would agree that $3k is the current bottom.

"Current bottom".....you mean just a local bottom before we head lower? Or that $3K is the bottom of the whole bear market?

If most people really agree on the bottom (like they did at $6K), we're probably heading lower. It's very rare for markets to do exactly what everyone expects. When real bottoms are made, everyone is usually in disbelief and expects lower.

[BitHodler]

If most people really agree on the bottom (like they did at $6K), we're probably heading lower. It's very rare for markets to do exactly what everyone expects. When real bottoms are made, everyone is usually in disbelief and expects lower.

Currently the general sentiment amongst people seem to be that they do expect the price to at least test the $3000 mark. Considering how much we went down already, that would be a welcome change in direction.

$6000 was all about a bull run before the end of the year, and of course with people like Tom Lee speculating about $20k to happen you know where things will likely go. I was literally waiting for it to happen but hoped to be wrong.

We haven't broken through any previous lower high in the last 13 months, so we'll see when the market finally turns bullish, but I remain conservative. Want to see $5k, preferably $6k to be bullish again.

[1Referee]

I expected this withdrawal from contention of the SEC deal would bring the price down a lot but apparently some people heard about it earlier and managed to get out a lot faster and dropped the price already.

If the news was sold in advance, it was very likely done during the brutal 50% selloff last year.

What if a whale comes up and sells 50 thousand bitcoins all at once tomorrow, what will happen to price ?

I don't think any whale is stupid enough to do that. No exchange is able to withstand that level of selling. I'm sure that in case a whale with that many coins is planning to unload his coins, it is either done through the OTC market where there are enough buyers ready to empty his bags, or that the whale uses various exchanges to sell these coins in batches of 500-1000BTC and have the process of selling take weeks or even months.

[figmentofmyass]

We haven't broken through any previous lower high in the last 13 months, so we'll see when the market finally turns bullish, but I remain conservative. Want to see $5k, preferably $6k to be bullish again.

i hate to say it, but those sound like great selling opportunities. being able to sell $6k again sounds fantastic, and i guarantee you i wouldn't be the only one doing so. you can't have a 9-month support (at $6k) fail, see the price chopped in half, and then immediately retake old support. that old support is now resistance---it's gonna need to be tested a couple times (probably over the better part of a year) before it breaks again.

[eaLiTy]

We will see sub-$3,000 bitcoins. There's really no question about it. We'll see sub-$1,000 bitcoins eventually, because bitcoin is on a long term down trend to zero, just look at the charts and read the sources.

If the price of bitcoin is going down to zero then the entire market will end up in zero and there is no doubt about it, it is a billion dollar market and what makes you think that it will eventually end up in zero, is there any theory behind it or have you found out any technical glitch that would take bitcoin to zero.

I think most would agree that $3k is the current bottom.

"Current bottom".....you mean just a local bottom before we head lower? Or that $3K is the bottom of the whole bear market?

If most people really agree on the bottom (like they did at $6K), we're probably heading lower. It's very rare for markets to do exactly what everyone expects. When real bottoms are made, everyone is usually in disbelief and expects lower.

It is not about a bunch of people agreeing about the bottom, if you do the technical analysis you can figure out the support level and resistance level and come to an conclusion on how the market will perform on either sides, if the market gets weaker the price will go down $3k and we will check the new support level and it goes like that. It is just an analysis to have an idea on how the market will perform in both directions, if the resistance is breached then we will have a good movement upward till the next resistance level is reached and so is the case with support levels.

[mikeywith]

It has been almost half a year since i posted this , 3 days after that I posted another one ( Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis )

We have gone too far , price is 150% up from bottom ( which i did not expect to happen this fast at all), but looking back in time, I know that it must have not been too easy to have the guts to stand against a strong down trend, or more like a water fall.

Hats off to everyone who had the courage and believed in TA enough to enter at those prices which we may very likely never see again.

[Distinctin]

It has been almost half a year since i posted this , 3 days after that I posted another one ( Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis )

We have gone too far , price is 150% up from bottom ( which i did not expect to happen this fast at all), but looking back in time, I know that it must have not been too easy to have the guts to stand against a strong down trend, or more like a water fall.

Hats off to everyone who had the courage and believed in TA enough to enter at those prices which we may very likely never see again.

I made the same action buying at the dip, but have not seen this thread before, thanks for sharing this, I'll take a look at your new thread.

Good luck!

edit - Had check the link,  I thought it was a new one.. do you have a new TA? Like the latest one?

[soxxx]

It has been almost half a year since i posted this , 3 days after that I posted another one ( Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis )

We have gone too far , price is 150% up from bottom ( which i did not expect to happen this fast at all), but looking back in time, I know that it must have not been too easy to have the guts to stand against a strong down trend, or more like a water fall.

Hats off to everyone who had the courage and believed in TA enough to enter at those prices which we may very likely never see again.

This thread was clutch, It was part of the reason why I kept accumulating, this truly was the first sign that we had bottomed.

[arpon11]

It has been almost half a year since i posted this , 3 days after that I posted another one ( Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis )

We have gone too far , price is 150% up from bottom ( which i did not expect to happen this fast at all), but looking back in time, I know that it must have not been too easy to have the guts to stand against a strong down trend, or more like a water fall.

Hats off to everyone who had the courage and believed in TA enough to enter at those prices which we may very likely never see again.

Bitcoin don't always follow what we think will happen. I always tell my friends that "the market has it own mind and you have to follow the market's mind in other to make profits and not get burn out"! Some of us has be following Bitcoin pricing for long and without using technicals or fundamentals indicators we can predict to some extent were the market is heading to and if we see a surprise move we should take it as normal things in the crypto currency market. Remember that many people are referring to bitcoin as a speculative market and speculation is what drive bitcoin market more than any technical or fundamental indicator.

[mikeywith]

This is off-topic, go start your own thread in Reputation or directly PM theymos, not sure how relevant is it to discuss the flag system in a technical analysis topic !

Not true, TA does work most of the time, just because you don't understand it does not mean it does not work, how do you think 3k was the bottom just randomly everyone decided to buy btc for 3k and not to sell it cheaper? there were many TA signals that we have bottomed and we actually did, TA is a combination of numbers and human psychology , if understood and used perfectly can most of the time keep you on the winning side.

[SuperTA]

Bro, nice chart but i think you posted this on the 20th december. I called the bottom of btc 3286 usd (bitfinex bottom was 3216) on the 7th of december 2018. Anyone who wants to see the prediction, i can give a link to the public forum and my private group.

But you were close enough and you have a very interesting approach. I like it Are you interested to post in my group?

[STT]

I didnt spot any regular trend until Feb and even then I'm doubting it will turn around properly like it has done.   I drew the chart right though in showing the trend of rising lows regularly.
   I'm glad I gave this guy merit, no idea why it would be evidence in anything negative when its a good topic in the right place, etc.     Some people are absolutely sound in their speculation and stating the current situations factors at least price wise, fundamentals is another forum section perhaps

TA is probability to me, its not stating certainties and thats why people hate it because they want to slam their fist on the table and declare this is the bottom price and no sell order shall pass.   Meanwhile reality, anything can happen and we merely can know what is most probable and that is profitable observation imo

[SuperTA]

I didnt spot any regular trend until Feb and even then I'm doubting it will turn around properly like it has done.   I drew the chart right though in showing the trend of rising lows regularly.
   I'm glad I gave this guy merit, no idea why it would be evidence in anything negative when its a good topic in the right place, etc.     Some people are absolutely sound in their speculation and stating the current situations factors at least price wise, fundamentals is another forum section perhaps

TA is probability to me, its not stating certainties and thats why people hate it because they want to slam their fist on the table and declare this is the bottom price and no sell order shall pass.   Meanwhile reality, anything can happen and we merely can know what is most probable and that is profitable observation imo

I didnt spot any regular trend until Feb and even then I'm doubting it will turn around properly like it has done.   I drew the chart right though in showing the trend of rising lows regularly.
   I'm glad I gave this guy merit, no idea why it would be evidence in anything negative when its a good topic in the right place, etc.     Some people are absolutely sound in their speculation and stating the current situations factors at least price wise, fundamentals is another forum section perhaps

TA is probability to me, its not stating certainties and thats why people hate it because they want to slam their fist on the table and declare this is the bottom price and no sell order shall pass.   Meanwhile reality, anything can happen and we merely can know what is most probable and that is profitable observation imo

yes, it's all about probability, nothing is 100% certain. But if you follow some rules you will gain in the longterm. Most of predictions will come true, if you follow as many rules as possible. Those rules gave me high probability bottom on the 7th of december at 3200 usd. It gave me 12.000 btc local top 2 days ago. It gave me more buying btc at 8900-ish area. It gave me shorting for the most of 2018 year. So, jf you manage all the rules and risk management together with TA, you'll be fine. I have those predictions made publicly if someone doubt this.

[SuperTA]

From my experience through the market fluctuations that have taken place over the days after the 2017 bull market it isn't possible to predict the reality. Once after reaching price closer to $20k the price of bitcoin began to fall. By that time there were predictions that the price won't go low to $5000, to the expectations things went away and we experienced very big low. Further slowly the growth has made the price over the past week reach close to $14000. In this regard I'm not sure with $3100 to be the low bottom, in no time anything could happen.

true, first we predicted only to 6000, not 5000 usd. But after 6000 didn't hold we shorted to 3280 usd. I knew we won't go lower than 3100 and i wrote those resons on the 7th of december.