Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis.

[mikeywith]

 before you start reading. if you think TA is useless, gtfo now because this is going to be painful to read.

if you believe in TA and history repeating itself on the chart, jump in this could be very interesting.


I made a few posts regarding Bitcoin price prediction, with no bragging what so ever, i managed to sell before the collapse, re-bought very close to the last low, thanks to TA ( this line goes to those who say TA is bullshit but didn't gtfo   ) > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.100

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Ok b.s aside  let us first start with analyzing the big picture of bitcoin, and why do i think that we have either bottomed out or just about to bottom out.

I will be combining a few a technical views, some of which i have mentioned before.

1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



the chart you looking at is the BLX, it has the longest data you can possibly find, the first candle goes to first of July 2010.

looking at the chart, we can clearly see that the 50 MA was never closed below and price did have a wick going under but not a single monthly close below.

while the current monthly candle have not really touched the MA which is why i think we could possible have make another slightly lower low with a wick that can go to as low as 2000$ but the monthly candle has to close above 2900$ for this 50 moving average to be valid.

2- 200 Moving Average on the weekly chart



almost the same look of the monthly 50 MA, except that on this weekly chart we did actually touch the 200MA and bounce right of it, you can also see that the 200 weekly moving average has never had a single weekly close below it, price did have a wick but not a close, and this suggest that if we were going to go down again to touch the monthly 50 moving on the monthly then price will come up fast enough before a weekly close.

3- The 2800-3100 is a major support/resistance level.



this price level has acted as both support and resistance level for about 105 days during last year. for 105 days it was the only critical line on site level that traders had their buys and sells around, it held the almost 35% drop in Aug 2017 and price surged from there.

 many traders have been setting their long positions at around the area, which justifies the recent pump, as many traders think that we bottomed out and are trying to enter as early as the can.

4- The Stotcastic RSI on the monthly chart



 the Stochastic RSI is at as low as the bottom of 2014 ranging at around 0.24 , while we still need to see a cross to confirm the start of an up trend , and since is is a monthly chart so another 500-1000$ drop from the latest low won't have much of an impact on the monthly layout which indicates an over sold market that is ready to change bullish.


5- The RSI on the monthly chart




The current value of the RSI is 45 while the last bear market had a bottomed out at 44, this only indicates that there is no much room for more dips, and the bottom should be there or just around the corner.


6- The ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart

 

sorry about the dark black ground on this one.

nothing much to say about this, it's clear that every time the red cloud appears, the bear market get's closer to end.


7- The lack of support below this level.



The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

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Now giving the fact that these analysis are based on large time frames, so the results will only confirm in months from now, saying we could have bottomed out does not mean you look at the hourly chart and say why are we dropping , the chart on the small time frame still looks as bearish as hell, so if you are a day trader then you should be following the current trend to place your positions, but if you are a long term trader then you should be only using any potential dip to buy so you can level up a good average price of your holdings.

it makes 0 sense to sell now if you are planning to hold for so long, i expect the price to test the 5k region and then make another leg down, this can be a good change to short and then to re enter the sub 3k as most likely every bottom has to be tested twice before making a V shape to the upside.

also keep in mind that the end of bearish trend does not mean the start of a bull run, it usually means a few months of consolidation between the bottom and the last high of the last leg down , which in our case if we were to assume 3k to be the bottom then the siedways market will be between 6k and 3k which can last from a few months to a whole a year before breaking the 6k and going on a bull run that will mark new ATHs.

long story short, buy around 3k , sell around 6k  until once of those levels are broken then you act accordingly. if you don't know how to trade,and you failed to sell at 5.7k then don't sell now, the room to the upside now is more than that to the downside.

This is not a financial advice, trade safe. follow the trend.






 

[1713561332]

1713561332

[bitserve]

Very good analysis, thanks!

[pixie85]

I don't know why people are waiting for that wick below 50MA so much. Usually in such setup when every noob trader is telling you to wait for the capitulation candle with long wick to invest it can never happen because every trader will try to outsmart the others and put orders higher to be sure to catch that wick right below 3000 dollars. It will build an impenetrable wall of orders that in time will go closer towards 3000.

[mikeywith]

I don't know why people are waiting for that wick below 50MA so much. Usually in such setup when every noob trader is telling you to wait for the capitulation candle with long wick to invest it can never happen because every trader will try to outsmart the others and put orders higher to be sure to catch that wick right below 3000 dollars. It will build an impenetrable wall of orders that in time will go closer towards 3000.

how did you come up to the conclusion that anybody said you should wait for a wick to enter?

[exstasie]

Very rigorous analysis. Thank you!

The current value of the RSI is 45 while the last bear market had a bottomed out at 44, this only indicates that there is no much room for more dips, and the bottom should be there or just around the corner.

One note about the above. Inherently, the value of this indicator analysis (and in fact the same goes for the historical Stoch and Ichimoku comparisons) depends on the long term uptrend continuing. We are essentially assuming "this is a correction to a trend which will continue, and we are reaching historical reversal levels." I think that's a solid analysis, but there is a distinct and perhaps even significant possibility that the overall trend will reverse into a bearish super-cycle. In that case, RSI and Stochs can grind the ground for many months on end during strong downtrending.

The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

I think it's important to emphasize the weekly candle close. There can definitely be a liquidity event that causes a temporary move below the $3,000 support zone. The key is that bulls buy it up quickly and we wick back above support.

Great analysis Mike. It's great to have another analyst on the forum!

[mikeywith]

One note about the above. Inherently, the value of this indicator analysis (and in fact the same goes for the historical Stoch and Ichimoku comparisons) depends on the long term uptrend continuing. We are essentially assuming "this is a correction to a trend which will continue, and we are reaching historical reversal levels." I think that's a solid analysis, but there is a distinct and perhaps even significant possibility that the overall trend will reverse into a bearish super-cycle. In that case, RSI and Stochs can grind the ground for many months on end during strong downtrending.

yes indeed, we could enter into a very long bearish trend, the RSI and the Stoch themselves are not my favorite indicators at all, i use them as an extra indication just because some other traders do, and many traders rely generally on divergences on those indicators, so when you have the stoch at a very low level,even with price continuing to the downside, the speed will differently has to decrease/slow down and that will show on the RSI ,MACD and the Stoch and will create whatever refer to as a bullish-divergence which many traders count on.

and again this is mind game, you want to try and look at the charts from as many points of view as possible, to hopefully join the crowd by making the same decision as they do , and by crowd i mean the money crowd not the people crowd that usually end up losing.

I think it's important to emphasize the weekly candle close. There can definitely be a liquidity event that causes a temporary move below the $3,000 support zone. The key is that bulls buy it up quickly and we wick back above support.

Great analysis Mike. It's great to have another analyst on the forum!

indeed focusing on the weekly close as well as the monthly close are always the most important, people place their long term traders on the hour chart and when things go south they blame the whales for manipulating the market when almost all the signs are there.

thanks for the feedback, would be great to see some of your analysis too.

happy holidays.

[WinslowIII]

My analysis is this: bitcoin is either going to nothing or $100k+ by end of 2021. There's no gray areas with this asset.

[buwaytress]

I take a big interest in TA, but not as gospel truth. There's of course a lot to take from charts and history, and I don't dismiss any of it, except perhaps from those 2010/11 periods where I feel price and volume is irrelevant as placed only in the hands of the few - even if they did set the market up.

As exstacie said, just because this is the ground doesn't mean a reversal will happen. I'm well ready and have been for a while for RSI to flitter around these levels, and MAs to just taper off for a really long time.

My analysis is this: bitcoin is either going to nothing or $100k+ by end of 2021. There's no gray areas with this asset.

That's always been my "analysis", based on maybe nothing but circumstancial evidence... that Bitcoin has no bottom or ceiling and is as likely to go as high as we can't imagine, as it is as low as no one can expect. There is no grey, nor black or white.

[greensheep]

Good long term analysis.
As sometimes it is mentioned, there is not enough volume for this to be capitulation, I think it is possible for this to be the bottom.
Capitulation could indeed still come after a retest of the 5.8-6K region and test below 3 K briefly.
Either way the bottom will need to be retested.

Regarding the volume during capitulations, it could be considered that during previous bottoms, coins were worth less and thus more coins were owned by individuals.
Which then could dump more coins at once which led to more volume.

[wuvdoll]

TA is definitely BS when it comes to bitcoin. The trouble is not that TA is a valid way to calculate bottoms and even tops and anything in between, it definitely calculates stuff very precisely, the BS part comes from the fact that whenever something major happens in bitcoin the price moves very quickly without caring about what the TA shows.

The biggest example we can give for this happened just a month ago when Craig Wright sold off about 8 thousand bitcoins all at once, now which type of TA could have predicted something like that, bitcoin price went down 10%+ in half an hour and TA couldn't calculate that. Hence, yeah on a regular day TA is great and would definitely work on calculating correct prices if no outside involvement happens but it is BS when something major like that happens.

[BitHodler]

The biggest example we can give for this happened just a month ago when Craig Wright sold off about 8 thousand bitcoins all at once, now which type of TA could have predicted something like that, bitcoin price went down 10%+ in half an hour and TA couldn't calculate that.

I find it very hard to believe that you know how many coins CSW dumped on the market, and more precisely said, I find it harder to believe that you can point out that he has dumped coins to begin with.

People act like the Bcash gang tanked the market by dumping large numbers of coins on the market, yet no one can point me to any factual information about their addresses.

If you don't know their addresses, you don't know whether they dumped or not. It's way more likely that investors have tanked the price down to where it was a week ago than these Bcash fraudsters.

[exstasie]

TA is definitely BS when it comes to bitcoin. The trouble is not that TA is a valid way to calculate bottoms and even tops and anything in between, it definitely calculates stuff very precisely, the BS part comes from the fact that whenever something major happens in bitcoin the price moves very quickly without caring about what the TA shows.

That doesn't discount the value of TA at all. It just means Bitcoin trends more strongly than other markets. Recognizing trends is one of the primary uses of TA. If anything, this makes employing it in Bitcoin more useful than other markets.

Most of the people ridiculing TA just made (or followed) a few bad predictions and use that as the basis for their ridicule. They never actually learned the value of TA or how to properly employ it.

[mikeywith]

TA is definitely BS when it comes to bitcoin. The trouble is not that TA is a valid way to calculate bottoms and even tops and anything in between, it definitely calculates stuff very precisely, the BS part comes from the fact that whenever something major happens in bitcoin the price moves very quickly without caring about what the TA shows.

That doesn't discount the value of TA at all. It just means Bitcoin trends more strongly than other markets. Recognizing trends is one of the primary uses of TA. If anything, this makes employing it in Bitcoin more useful than other markets.

Most of the people ridiculing TA just made (or followed) a few bad predictions and use that as the basis for their ridicule. They never actually learned the value of TA or how to properly employ it.

These Hodl MOON boys will never understand what are you trying to explain them, I am done trying to educate anybody who is not willing to learn. let them sit there in the dark crying and asking when moon? when lambo? 

[1Referee]

People act like the Bcash gang tanked the market by dumping large numbers of coins on the market, yet no one can point me to any factual information about their addresses.

I think it's safe to say that Bitmain and Roger did everything they could to artificially peg their shitcoin to 5-10-15-20% of Bitcoin's value to such degree, that they have burned through most of their Bitcoin holdings in the process. Bitmain's Bitcoin holdings have shown a massive decline when they publicly shared their coin balances.

Not sure when they show their next most recent balance sheet, but it will bring in more clarity in terms of what happened with their Bitcoin holdings. I bet their BCash holdings will be near 1.5 million by now, which is crazy if you think about it. If this continues, they not only own most of the hashrate and nodes, but also the coins in circulation.

Classic centralized piece of shit coin.

[mikeywith]

here is an update of the current situation for those intraday traders > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48868678#msg48868678

[el kaka22]

Bitcoin seems like on a bull trajectory even during it going down. When there was a bear market the price went down but it went down much quicker. Right now when we hit 4200 dollars it dropped to 3800 or so even higher, last time it went down from 4200 it went down all the way to 3400 even less. Which tells me it is really difficult to sell right now and even when a lot of people sell they are not overpowering the buy orders.

Hence, I think bitcoin will be fine in 2019, this is a good example of why 2019 will be a year of bull, maybe we will not hit 20 thousand dollars at all, maybe for another couple years we will not see those type of prices, however we will certainly go between 4-10 thousand dollars for this year, sometimes it will go up and sometimes it will have these small falls but in the end it will certainly be higher than what it is today.

[okala]

Very good analysis and more grace to you airborne. Technically I believe that bitcoin has bottom out and follow the analysis that you have made I think we should not expect bitcoin will not go below $3000. That means now should be the best time for us to invest into the market.

[mikeywith]

Very good analysis and more grace to you airborne. Technically I believe that bitcoin has bottom out and follow the analysis that you have made I think we should not expect bitcoin will not go below $3000. That means now should be the best time for us to invest into the market.

we can still dip more tho, but if it' for long term plan, then indeed it's a good time IMO

[mikeywith]

The monthly candle is going to close in 6 days, very important to watch whether we manage to close below the 50MA on the monthly or not, watch the 200 weekly MA as well, a close below the 200 will most likely confirm a close below 50MA on monthly, and therefore the TA would be invalidated and we will be looking at at another potential bottom.

as far as the current price goes , everything still looks in place, the sings leaning to this being the bottom, it will remain valid unless we see a close as mentioned above.

[figmentofmyass]

The monthly candle is going to close in 6 days, very important to watch whether we manage to close below the 50MA on the monthly or not, watch the 200 weekly MA as well, a close below the 200 will most likely confirm a close below 50MA on monthly, and therefore the TA would be invalidated and we will be looking at at another potential bottom.

as far as the current price goes , everything still looks in place, the sings leaning to this being the bottom, it will remain valid unless we see a close as mentioned above.

thanks for the update.

i'm also leaning towards the same conclusion, but markets sure have a way of making us doubt ourselves, don't they?

shorts are pretty low and the market is really choppy in general, so i'm on the sidelines until i see an obvious uptrend to ride. fingers crossed that we don't see any sustained candle closing below the 200wma/$3k area.