Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis.

[Wind_FURY]

My theory.

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

I believe the smarter traders, who are ahead of everyone, are starting to accumulate, before everyone has full knowledge of the situation that the best time to buy might be now.

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[figmentofmyass]

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

i don't think everyone is waiting for a capitulation. some traders and especially old timers, yeah, but not everyone.

you may be right that too many people are expecting new lows right now. but that may just mean a relief rally or short squeeze is coming. it doesn't necessarily mean the downtrend is over. market sentiment is fluid and will keep adjusting to price action. we could bounce to $5k and everyone might turn bullish. and then we might be headed for capitulation.

[fabiorem]

The same kind of analysis was made when it was in the 6000s. People thought it was the bottom, because it sidelined there for months. And here we are, looking at the 3000s.

So, I dont think we bottomed. However, I also dont think we will be in this bear market forever, like some believe.

If this year is to be a repetition of 2015, price could be in the 3000s for the most part of the year, with some ups and downs. Price recovery will be slow, not only because of the cycle, but also due to the participation of Wall Street and other "legitimate" investors in the scene. They try to tame every asset they touch, and bitcoin is a very wild asset.

[STT]

Its the role of markets to even out volatility, thats the job they are paid to do really.   Capitalism in theory is about personal profit but the ironic benefit to society is it provides a service, in this case a more reliable price should be the result.

The big bears say thats not possible and they believe the supply of Bitcoin is endless, that doesn't exactly make sense though.   Some of their ideas are just based off the concept of copyright but this is a flaw in the wider world anyway.   Russia, China even India has been illegally copying various patented medicines and mass producing them regardless of apparent world trade laws and restrictions.
  Long story short, the finance view of the world is far from 20/20 and they can easily be wrong here.    Stuff like XRP I have zero faith in as the development and production is not open ended, its biased to the company.   So long as BTC is productive basis for trade then 3000 can be the bottom price, development can determine price more then the speculators

2015 roughly as I remember it, alot of fuss around the halvening (more of a false dawn in exact terms).   Some now think thats it again for a possible timing to buy.

[exstasie]

The same kind of analysis was made when it was in the 6000s. People thought it was the bottom, because it sidelined there for months. And here we are, looking at the 3000s.

So, I dont think we bottomed. However, I also dont think we will be in this bear market forever, like some believe.

If this year is to be a repetition of 2015, price could be in the 3000s for the most part of the year, with some ups and downs.

If 2019 = 2015, then the low $3,000s are probably like the low $200s. Not the ultimate low, but the bottom of the long term accumulation range. We should be prepared for a gut wrenching plunge below the range lows in a final capitulation. In fact, it happened twice in 2015: capitulation in January and a retest in August. Hopefully that'll end with a Wyckoff Spring or V-bottom that helps confirm the end of the bear market.

It's hard to be any more specific than that.  I think the old saying "history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes" applies here.

[Wind_FURY]

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

i don't think everyone is waiting for a capitulation. some traders and especially old timers, yeah, but not everyone.

Then would you agree that the right time to start accumulating is now?

you may be right that too many people are expecting new lows right now. but that may just mean a relief rally or short squeeze is coming.

My point is, the act of waiting, while doing nothing at the same time, will cause the holders not to "capitulate".

it doesn't necessarily mean the downtrend is over. market sentiment is fluid and will keep adjusting to price action. we could bounce to $5k and everyone might turn bullish. and then we might be headed for capitulation.

Yes, because the whalecummulators might not be done with their own accumulation. If the plebs pump, they dump. They don't want to be disturbed.

Tinfoil hats on.

[adaseb]

Even though hind-sight is 20-20, we all could see the $6K breaking due to the fact that everybody assumed it was the bottom and everybody assumed that it "must" go up in November 2017 since November is usually a very bullish bitcoin month, sentlement was very bullish back then. Many people took leverage positions and were pretty much liquidated unless they only took a 1x long or added to their balances.

Right now however its the opposite. Looking at the forum and most trollboxes everybody is extremely bearish on ETH and BTC. They are expecting $20 ETH and $1000 BTC. And they are also shorting the bottom and if we start an acceleration anytime in the next couple of weeks it might lead to a huge short squeeze to the $5000-$6000 area.

When we get there its hit and miss what will happen. It will either reverse and head back down, or we might get a huge cup and handle or it will engulf the area and we might be heading to $7000. Only time will tell.

[figmentofmyass]

Then would you agree that the right time to start accumulating is now?

if we're talking about building a long term position, i think it's prudent to wait for signs of accumulation first. i've never seen a chart like this immediately erupt into a parabolic bull market. there should be lots of time left. nobody should be desperate to buy right now.

[davis196]

Very in depth technical analysis.All the people that were predicting a 1500 USD btc price during the winter have to read this.There will be a massive price recovery during the spring.By massive,I mean the price will recover to around 5000 USD,which is pretty good.I don't expect a "10K USD or more" btc price this year.

[wuvdoll]

if we're talking about building a long term position, i think it's prudent to wait for signs of accumulation first. i've never seen a chart like this immediately erupt into a parabolic bull market. there should be lots of time left. nobody should be desperate to buy right now.

No, this must be a right time for building long term positions. I am sure no indicator will show the beginning of a new trend well in advance and for those who do now want to miss out this steep bottom prices then may start buying some right away. Technical indicators may start showing signals about trend reversal only after bitcoin prices entering and sustaining above $5000 levels. Also, buying now is a non-technical one hence we should not go for "all-in", buying partial and then adding up later kind of plan will work with current markets for any long term investor.

Moreover, it is being frequently emphasized here : for a long term investors, all the times are good to buy. With respect to current market prices, this may be a life time opportunity to buy bitcoins under $4000 and we may never see prices trading under $4k levels forever here after. I am very much sure on this.

[exstasie]

Very in depth technical analysis.All the people that were predicting a 1500 USD btc price during the winter have to read this.There will be a massive price recovery during the spring.By massive,I mean the price will recover to around 5000 USD,which is pretty good.I don't expect a "10K USD or more" btc price this year.

I've been looking for a leg up to $5,000+ for a while, but I mainly see it as a shorting opportunity. Support from 2018 ($5,700+) should be resistance now, as well as the 200-day and 20-week MAs.

I'm open to the idea that December 2018 was the bottom, but bulls need to carve out a bottom over months. In the meantime, selling the top of this new range should be lucrative for the next several months.

[omonuyak]

Very in depth technical analysis.All the people that were predicting a 1500 USD btc price during the winter have to read this.There will be a massive price recovery during the spring.By massive,I mean the price will recover to around 5000 USD,which is pretty good.I don't expect a "10K USD or more" btc price this year.

That is truth and I strongly believe that bitcoin will recover above $10,000  before end of this year December.  The market however is currently moving in side ways and if you keep watching over the market you will understand that bitcoin is going to recover maybe around July or August.

[STT]

I dont agree that everyone thought 6000 had to be the bottom and that mass assumption is why market tested it.     I'm not sure 10,000 now as a recovery can be justified either, whats probably true for determining pricing is what level serves the greatest number of people and the market overall as a purpose.    So I'm thinking of housing where for a long time people pointed to how it always gained value over years however this is forgetting buyers needs relative to their earnings and what price is best for them.

If like in housing we need those buyers to have a lower price in order that BTC as a product continues to grow overall in population, in development and potential for its utility then its going to keep moving towards the price that gains the most buyers.     Its really upto that driving force to tell us where are you most involved and wanting to use BTC, our worries on numbers is just a dimension measured after market as a whole is most comfortable and ready again for crypto to fit their needs.   I think it is partly time and development tbh


As far as TA then its most easily observable relative to the 200 week average and measure strength maybe FIB levels from there

[mikeywith]

wait for a break-out , go long. set TP and SL .

[bustedsynx]

We just have to wait until March 1 and if Bitcoin breaks the $3,700 resistance levels. However, it's a 50/50 chance that Bitcoin breaks down to $3000 or below briefly. It's like waiting for the last of the weak whale hands to fall.

[Wind_FURY]

My theory.

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

I believe the smarter traders, who are ahead of everyone, are starting to accumulate, before everyone has full knowledge of the situation that the best time to buy might be now.

My theory could be proven right. Everyone waiting for a capitulation followed by a "surging rally" will be waiting in vain. Yes, like the song.

I believe the people trading the market are too smart for that now.

[gabmen]

We just have to wait until March 1 and if Bitcoin breaks the $3,700 resistance levels. However, it's a 50/50 chance that Bitcoin breaks down to $3000 or below briefly. It's like waiting for the last of the weak whale hands to fall.

We've been waiting for that for more than a year now dude. It may have already bottomed out or it may still take a plunge, it'll be very difficult to know even with the most constructive ta. I've grown tired of the btc drama and decided to just let it move where it wants. I'll just be flexible lol.

[mikeywith]

update : i still think we have bottomed, tho i also think it's too early to buy now, a flat market is about to take over for a few months "assuming we bottomed". i made a whole topic explaining my theory on why do I think that regadless of wether we have bottomed or not, to me, it's not the best time to buy BTC yet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49710747#msg49710747

read it, let me know what you guys think.

[buwaytress]

update : i still think we have bottomed, tho i also think it's too early to buy now, a flat market is about to take over for a few months "assuming we bottomed". i made a whole topic explaining my theory on why do I think that regadless of wether we have bottomed or not, to me, it's not the best time to buy BTC yet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49710747#msg49710747

read it, let me know what you guys think.

I've already just lost a bet today on Fairlay (for BTC to have touched $4k by 15th Feb 2019), was fully expecting to lose even when I took it in Dec though (the 5/1 was more like a consolation since it meant I couldn't get more coins at cheap price).

I think your theory has been shared by a lot of people, and has stood for a while. I still think we have yet to see the lows of the year, so I'm not 100% sure your bottoming out theory fits with that expectation of further lows, but I actually think it's not the worse time to buy now.

[jhongzjhong]

update : i still think we have bottomed, tho i also think it's too early to buy now, a flat market is about to take over for a few months "assuming we bottomed". i made a whole topic explaining my theory on why do I think that regadless of wether we have bottomed or not, to me, it's not the best time to buy BTC yet.

I followed all your Technical Analysis thread it seems to be true, I personally don't think the possible happen ahead because I don't want to get discouraged about happening the market. Only a few good news I wanted to read but when I saw your TA I am enlightened now and captured ideas in calculating the market price. Indeed, very informative tho.