Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis.

[sirohige]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

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[joshy23]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

Trying to wait for the bottom will only caused a delayed for your investment to prosper, starting to buy and wait will results to a good position after
some time, as many things can happen after this long bearish trend has been replaced by the new bull market, preparing your mindset to take the
jumped and risk for better results.

[michellee]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

I think they can wait for a while to buy bitcoin because I think after the price makes the high price, it will go down for a while, so that is the best time to them to buy bitcoin. But if they miss that time, then I don't know if they will see a low price again except if there is a flash dump that might happen in anytime.

[mikeywith]

I think they can wait for a while to buy bitcoin because I think after the price makes the high price, it will go down for a while, so that is the best time to them to buy bitcoin.

this is the likely scenario,  what most people don't understand about market shifts is that it has to be slow and it takes time, so the moment they  see bitcoin rising 300$ they think this the cheapest it will be, they jump in , prices drop, they sell for loss, rinse and repeat.

or the worse scenario is, they buy now, a few months later, price is back at where they bough or lower, they give up, sell , and then bull run starts.

[toknormal]

with no bragging what so ever, i managed to sell before the collapse, re-bought very close to the last low, thanks to TA

Just about everybody sold something "at the top" and bought something "a the bottom".

The question is, did you sell your entire stash and re-buy it at the bottom ? That would be the measure of "faith in TA"  

[STT]

I dont think he should have to sell absolutely everything, that sounds like an overally risky gamble based strategy.   From what I've seen people only have to be right in general to do very well, trying to time the exact top and bottom is a bit of a fallacy.    The reason for that might be that volume is not highest at the peak price, it thins out which is why it looks sharp on the graph as there is not enough buyers there to keep the price.  
Once its spiked up then others following recognise and tend to join into the sell, it gathers momentum and so on.   On the more positive side, that can happen with the bottom where its not really recognised by many and quite a few are exhausted by the move and got their heads on the desks or hands as literally they gave up.  

  Its ironic I guess, actually trying to be one of the few at the top or bottom is not a sensible target and I try to learn or recognise that joining into a trend is actually healthy.    Forming good instincts is all I hope for really, as I think this will make me far better off then that lucky gamble win scenario imo

[mikeywith]

The question is, did you sell your entire stash and re-buy it at the bottom ? That would be the measure of "faith in TA"  

sold everything at the break down from 5700$ , but did i go all in  at the exact bottom? indeed not,  this is not how trading work, you short and long bitcoin to generate more btc whenever the chance presents itself, i do not care where the bottom is, it's irrelevant, i would buy more btc if we go above 6k than if we head to 3k , for a hodler, it's stupid , for a trader it makes sense that you follow the trend.  these are two different things that you shouldn't be mixing together.

[jozymens7]

Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.

[shesheboy]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

Anything can possibly happen because cryptocurrency are still volatile  .  2020 is still a long year and no one can guarantee that halving can improve the growth of the coins  .   its hard to say this but the truth is that there is no bottom price limit for all the cryptos  . they can all drop until they hit zero  depending on the mood on the investors and hodlers  .

[exstasie]

Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.

We really don't know if the market bottomed out yet or not. Maybe, maybe not. Top callers and bottom callers get slaughtered by the market, always. Good TA always waits for confirmation.

So the bottom may very well be in, but wise traders will continue betting on the long term bear trend until it's confirmed over. It's the only sensible way to approach the market as a trader. That means selling into the current rally with the expectation of revisiting the $3,000s or lower.

[toknormal]

The question is, did you sell your entire stash and re-buy it at the bottom ? That would be the measure of "faith in TA"  

sold everything at the break down from 5700$

That's practically the bottom given that the top was $19,500. So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

[mikeywith]

That's practically the bottom given that the top was $19,500. So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

5,700$ is the top now, you can only dream to be able to sell it for that price, and based on your comment i can only assume that you don't know shit about trading, shorting btc at 5700$ and taking profit at 3k area is a ton of profit, btc fell  almost 50% from that level, if i was to re-buy now i would have  1.5BTC for each 1 BTC sold at 5.7k , let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

[Wind_FURY]

That's practically the bottom given that the top was $19,500. So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

5,700$ is the top now, you can only dream to be able to sell it for that price, and based on your comment i can only assume that you don't know shit about trading, shorting btc at 5700$ and taking profit at 3k area is a ton of profit, btc fell  almost 50% from that level, if i was to re-buy now i would have  1.5BTC for each 1 BTC sold at 5.7k , let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

Ok, you know a lot of shit about trading. But what would be more profitable if I want to make some money from the Bitcoin market today, your active day trading strategy, or the HODL?

[Sanitough]

Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.

That's just them feeling expert and knows the future, but the fact is they are wrong most of the time.
When more and more people are agreeing to the price whatever TA is that, it will reflect to the public's perception and in that way, whales can abuse us.
What's the use of TA if the market is still under the manipulation of the whale, they don't need any indicator, they just do what they want.

[1Referee]

let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

If anything, if this ascending triangle we're in breaks out, shorters will very likely be rekt just as hard longers were rekt seeing the price tank from $6000 to where we are right now. Bullish market people expect higher prices, bearish market people expect lower prices. I don't blame people for being conservative, but there is no point in exaggerating this whole situation.

[fabiorem]

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

I have noticed that, too. It seems we are having higher lows, instead of lower highs. It looks like a reversal, but it is going slowly, giving us time to prepare. I think it is safe to buy in small amounts, right now, but with some orders at lower prices, in case it falls more.

Another thing I noticed is that a certain exchange (cant recall which one, right now) have increased the margin trading for its users. Maybe it is a sign that people are losing interest in it, and want to accumulate, instead of margin trading.

[LUCKMCFLY]

let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

If anything, if this ascending triangle we're in breaks out, shorters will very likely be rekt just as hard longers were rekt seeing the price tank from $6000 to where we are right now. Bullish market people expect higher prices, bearish market people expect lower prices. I don't blame people for being conservative, but there is no point in exaggerating this whole situation.

I totally agree with you, although I am not in favor of believing in the triangles, but I can say that in the market phase we are, the Strong Hands are going to have to raise the price to try the offer, and obviously the triangle will break upwards, but the logic and understanding of the market that goes much further, will indicate that it will go down, because simply the Strong Hands need to take profits after those movements, since they will not allow themselves to lose. Then the triangle breaks, but then the fall will be brutal, obviously at that moment the analysis is will invalidated.

[exstasie]

let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

We can't discard $3,200 yet; it's a weekly pivot at historical support (200-week MA).

However there's been no sign yet that it's actually a bottom. We haven't been able to a form a higher high on the weekly chart since 2017 and that's still true today. With no such recovery and no high volume capitulation at the bottom, there's just no reason to put much stock in the December low. It's probably just a local bottom like the September 2014 pivot.......more blood to come.

[mikeywith]

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily.

i think you have missed understood my statement, maybe if you read it in context it will make more sense, that statement was a response to that guy who said selling at 5.7k  and buying at 3.2k is more or like

So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

he thinks that selling at 5.7k was selling at bottom, but anyway i know he doesn't know shit, so no point re-explaining anything.

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway  ?

[exstasie]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway   ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.