Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis.

[adaseb]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway   ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250 or even go lower to $100, it never did and I had a large loss.

[Pursuer]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway  ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250 or even go lower to $100, it never did and I had a large loss.

I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.

[exstasie]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway   ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

Yes indeed. There are a couple key differences this time though. For one thing, sentiment doesn't seem to have hit despair levels like we saw back then. People are turning bullish off any $200 pump. There's still lots of hope in the air.

I agree about the low volumes, but another key difference was the high volume at the January 2015 bottom, which marked the lowest point of the bear market. We still haven't seen a similar event this time around to help confirm the bottom is really in:

[mikeywith]

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

TA wise i'd say it's well over 70% that we have bottomed, but the fact that everyone and their mother is thinking so makes it look like we have not, i don't like to see the majority of people being optimistic , most think that buying bitcoin at 3k is the deal of their lives, nothing TA based but this fact alone makes me worry, market bottoms are not supposed to work this way, as long as i still see people calling for bottom it's safe to assume that we could very likely fall from here.

but i also don't really care, and so shouldn't anybody else, as long as you don't treat bitcoin like a lottery ticket then you will always be on the winning side, let's just work with that we got now.

here is what we know.

the mid-low 3k is a strong support.
the mid low 4k is a strong resistance.
the mid-high 5k is the strongest resistance ahead that will likely never break for at least Q2,Q3 2019  even if this is the bottom.
be it the bottom or not, we should expect a very low volume, side ways for days/weeks followed by a spike or a dip of 300-500$ from time to time.

i expect the coming 6 months to be slow as fuck, Q4  2019 should be much more interesting.

[figmentofmyass]

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.

it didn't drop significantly but like 2011, the hash rate plateaued during the bear market. i don't have any sources in front of me, but i remember hearing some stories of miners liquidating their operations in late 2014 or early 2015 because of the bear market. when you consider that businesses of scale like bitmain were taking over the market at that time, there were likely lots of smaller and more marginal operations being forced out of business.

[joy99]

I wouldn't call for bitcoin's bottom out because right now in traders/investors want to take their profits, they will just selling and take their profits and then back to our 33.3K again. This is how they a]keep doing us so I don't trust the market and its price movement beause some people can choose to destroy the market.

[Ipwich]

I wouldn't call for bitcoin's bottom out because right now in traders/investors want to take their profits, they will just selling and take their profits and then back to our 33.3K again. This is how they a]keep doing us so I don't trust the market and its price movement beause some people can choose to destroy the market.

Do you mean 3.3K? Well, who really knows, if they are selling I'm sure there are only the whales who are doing that.
Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.

Let the whales do their thing, they'll be tired bringing the price down eventually, next thing will happen is a price uptrend. s

[buwaytress]

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.

it didn't drop significantly but like 2011, the hash rate plateaued during the bear market. i don't have any sources in front of me, but i remember hearing some stories of miners liquidating their operations in late 2014 or early 2015 because of the bear market. when you consider that businesses of scale like bitmain were taking over the market at that time, there were likely lots of smaller and more marginal operations being forced out of business.

Actually, I do recall reading similar stories about that period. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to have evidenced itself in the historical charts I've seen about hashrate. Or if it did, it pales in comparison to the drop we saw last year. Like you said too, Bitmain's problems are the other big indicator that it's a lot more severe this time around.

OP, utxo analysis released recently is also indicating bottom is near... Seller exhaustion and accumulation the indicators. Let's see. 1 month left before q1 is over.

[mikeywith]

Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.

and how do you exactly know that the "majority of investors sold at higher 10k?" this is rather an thought of speculation, giving that we are 70%  down from 10k it doesn't seem like majority sold at 10k.

[LeGaulois]

Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.

and how do you exactly know that the "majority of investors sold at higher 10k?" this is rather an thought of speculation, giving that we are 70%  down from 10k it doesn't seem like majority sold at 10k.

He's half right, I wouldn't say it's the majority but there are sure a lot of folks who left the market. At 20k-15k-10k I have no idea but the market has been cleaned a lot. Maybe something not bad in the end since only people who believe in the cryptos uses will stay (generally speaking I mean)

expect the coming 6 months to be slow as fuck, Q4  2019 should be much more interesting.

+1 I find the market boring recently

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@LeGaulois - Slow moving, sideways markets are great for accumulating. Don’t complain about great opportunities to gobble up cheap coins.

We all know where this market is going eventually so let’s have some patience

[LeGaulois]

I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.

[2chase]

I can say with confidence that Bitcoin has long been no longer like ordinary money. The current political situation on the planet is something that has a much greater impact on Bitcoin than technical analysis. That is why technical analysis to predict the price of Bitcoin is possible only for short periods of time.

[mikeywith]

I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.

assuming we have bottomed, then you "might" see  those numbers by end of 2019, maybe Nov / Dec .

it's very likely that we will be ranging between 3 and sub 4k range till then, hardly possibly anything above 5k, now all of this assuming we have already bottomed, things will take longer if we have not.

[LeGaulois]

I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.

assuming we have bottomed, then you "might" see  those numbers by end of 2019, maybe Nov / Dec .

it's very likely that we will be ranging between 3 and sub 4k range till then, hardly possibly anything above 5k, now all of this assuming we have already bottomed, things will take longer if we have not.

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

[mikeywith]

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

goods news = bear market about to hit

it has always been this way, the fact that we see less good news and more bad news alone is good, it might not make sense, but you can look at the charts, compare it with news timing, it's almost always the same case, people talk about btc dying and going to 0 = bull run soon and vise versa.

and i still do think that 7-8k is doable by year end, but the fomo won't kick in by then, the biggest fomo of btc history will be pass 20k .

[hotimbineh]

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

goods news = bear market about to hit

it has always been this way, the fact that we see less good news and more bad news alone is good, it might not make sense, but you can look at the charts, compare it with news timing, it's almost always the same case, people talk about btc dying and going to 0 = bull run soon and vise versa.

and i still do think that 7-8k is doable by year end, but the fomo won't kick in by then, the biggest fomo of btc history will be pass 20k .

all forum members certainly don't care about the negative news from some sites and individuals, because we are still optimistic that bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

[Sanitough]

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

goods news = bear market about to hit

it has always been this way, the fact that we see less good news and more bad news alone is good, it might not make sense, but you can look at the charts, compare it with news timing, it's almost always the same case, people talk about btc dying and going to 0 = bull run soon and vise versa.

and i still do think that 7-8k is doable by year end, but the fomo won't kick in by then, the biggest fomo of btc history will be pass 20k .

all forum members certainly don't care about the negative news from some sites and individuals, because we are still optimistic that bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

7-8k is very conservative as prediction, if the bear will be over this year,  we can easily get back to $6,000.
I don't know but my prediction this year is we are going higher than 7-8k , probably we will reach $10,000 this year, which is 50% of the ATH last 2017.

[mikeywith]

bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

well assuming we have bottomed then most likely we will go way pass 7-8k in 2020, assuming we haven't bottomed then 7-8 won't happen anywhere before 2021. the next coming months should be give is a clear signal of what to expect for 2020, i think by June we will have enough data to confirm the outcome.

[Kelvinid]

bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

well assuming we have bottomed then most likely we will go way pass 7-8k in 2020, assuming we haven't bottomed then 7-8 won't happen anywhere before 2021. the next coming months should be give is a clear signal of what to expect for 2020, i think by June we will have enough data to confirm the outcome.

It only be happen if the trend will continue to rallying going up but thinking how it fluctuates, we still not get high percentage for its continuous pumps. Last 2017 it started to rise by second quarter and hoping it will happen this year again even though not just like of 2017 event but at least we could see some inclining activities around.