Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis.

[STT]

all forum members certainly don't care about the negative news from some sites and individuals

I would not say all, theres still quite alot of speculators who use leverage to participate in the market and thats naturally going to make the price flakey and unstable until pricing can find a sure footing to rise up past resistance.   We have to break through ceilings that have set from previous support lost, old buyers who just waited or left a sell order at their buy price have to be passed on the way back up.

This is all just normal markets but BTC still has alot of doubt in it and I dont think leverage helps fight this as the hot money will just flee and sell when tested.   A proper bottom price is found when some attempt to force price down to shake out people but there is no takers.    A bear will sometimes bluff attack an enemy its unsure of to assess the risk rather then take the actual fight, we have alot bluff bear attacks that arent especially real and it probably takes real holders to stand their ground and hold anyway.    Genuine usage helps alot

The whole 4500 to 6000 is a battleground.   Right now we just staging the fight to get to 4500 and that might take till summer for all I know

Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250

I'm sure I sold some around then and assumed it was not doing much.   The hype of halvening meant it fell a little and nobody thought much of the idea of a bottom there.

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[mikeywith]

Here is an update regarding the OP.

up to this moment, more signals are starting to appear on the charts are suggest we have already bottomed.

everything mentioned in this analysis will be invalidated if we close below both 200SMA on the weekly and 50SMA on the monthly, as well as the  major support area that still sits around 2700-3200. these now are the major bottom-guide-line , this is pretty much all we have from history data.

a close below 2700$ is a probably a fall to 1100$  or 1800$ at best case scenario although that is a very week support.


so what do we do now ?

we stay calm, relax. do not rush to sell should price dip fast below support areas, wait for at least a daily candle, we are closer to the bottom than ever, some shaking out will happen, many people will fold right before the bull run, DO NOT RUSH,DO NOT FOMO, relax and watch only the daily chart for now, do not stress yourself with small time frames, nothing major is going to happen, we will probably have this slow market around for months, a few wicks can happen here and there, do not fall for it, and when you see a clear sign for another waterfall, do not sit there and wait, dump it while you can.

[adaseb]

Here is an update regarding the OP.

up to this moment, more signals are starting to appear on the charts are suggest we have already bottomed.

everything mentioned in this analysis will be invalidated if we close below both 200SMA on the weekly and 50SMA on the monthly, as well as the  major support area that still sits around 2700-3200. these now are the major bottom-guide-line , this is pretty much all we have from history data.

a close below 2700$ is a probably a fall to 1100$  or 1800$ at best case scenario although that is a very week support.


so what do we do now ?

we stay calm, relax. do not rush to sell should price dip fast below support areas, wait for at least a daily candle, we are closer to the bottom than ever, some shaking out will happen, many people will fold right before the bull run, DO NOT RUSH,DO NOT FOMO, relax and watch only the daily chart for now, do not stress yourself with small time frames, nothing major is going to happen, we will probably have this slow market around for months, a few wicks can happen here and there, do not fall for it, and when you see a clear sign for another waterfall, do not sit there and wait, dump it while you can.

You should post some updates charts, especially the 200 SMA weekly. Basically since we had a huge rally in the last 200 weeks the 200SMA price keeps increasing every week that goes by. Currently its at $3448, when you made this thread back in December it was at $3220.

Now depending how much chop we keep getting for the next few months, price can go nowhere and it might reach $3900 for the 200 SMA weekly and it can easily break it while the $3100 might still hold.

[iv4n]

Here is an update regarding the OP.

up to this moment, more signals are starting to appear on the charts are suggest we have already bottomed.

everything mentioned in this analysis will be invalidated if we close below both 200SMA on the weekly and 50SMA on the monthly, as well as the  major support area that still sits around 2700-3200. these now are the major bottom-guide-line , this is pretty much all we have from history data.

a close below 2700$ is a probably a fall to 1100$  or 1800$ at best case scenario although that is a very week support.


so what do we do now ?

we stay calm, relax. do not rush to sell should price dip fast below support areas, wait for at least a daily candle, we are closer to the bottom than ever, some shaking out will happen, many people will fold right before the bull run, DO NOT RUSH,DO NOT FOMO, relax and watch only the daily chart for now, do not stress yourself with small time frames, nothing major is going to happen, we will probably have this slow market around for months, a few wicks can happen here and there, do not fall for it, and when you see a clear sign for another waterfall, do not sit there and wait, dump it while you can.

What to do now? If you truly believe that this is bottom sell what you can and buy more bitcoins, if you aren`t sure than wait with what you have and buy something extra if you can afford it. I will share one nice picture I saw the other day, you judge it for yourself:

What you think, does he regret his decision now?

[exstasie]

What to do now? If you truly believe that this is bottom sell what you can and buy more bitcoins, if you aren`t sure than wait with what you have and buy something extra if you can afford it. I will share one nice picture I saw the other day, you judge it for yourself:

What you think, does he regret his decision now?

If he never bought back, sure.

At the time, it was an excellent sell though. From there, Bitcoin fell all the way to $2 over the next several months. Selling $14 and buying back a year later at $5-7 after price stabilized and broke the 2011 downtrend = $$$. That's the best way to trade this market. Don't worry about tops and bottoms, just trade the trend.

[2chase]

I do not really hope for classical technical analysis when it comes to Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is no longer an ordinary financial asset, now its fate depends on world political change much more than on technical analysis. Technical analysis has not shown us the real situation for a long time.

[mikeywith]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

[Japinat]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

Now that it seems we are in the bull run, we might heard again john mcafee shilling some of the coins.
This guy had some success in the past and gain a of followers on his pump game, but it was a pump and dump, and in the end, he didn't have
to risk any amount of money just to make good money.

[omonuyak]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

That is why it is good for speculators to comeout with analysis in backing up of what they are telling us.  I think we are going to have good days in days to come and for me I am really seeing positive outlook in all things.

[Ipwich]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

That is why it is good for speculators to comeout with analysis in backing up of what they are telling us.  I think we are going to have good days in days to come and for me I am really seeing positive outlook in all things.

I believe in OP that Bitcoin has Bottomed out, and that made me so confident going forward because I know I survive until BTC bottomed out.
It's my goal to ensure good profit and holding for long term is still my best way of achieving it, I'm just glad that there are people who shares their opinion about crypto and they are bullish as well.

[LeGaulois]

The value has lost something like $200 or $300 in just one day which makes me think that despite analyses, predictions or statistics there is currently something unnatural that is causing this volatility that doesn't fit with the current market, the BTC value and/or other things.
I mean, we currently have a volatility rate that we had before when Bitcoin went from $15k to $20k (for example).

[lionheart78]

The value has lost something like $200 or $300 in just one day which makes me think that despite analyses, predictions or statistics there is currently something unnatural that is causing this volatility that doesn't fit with the current market, the BTC value and/or other things.
I mean, we currently have a volatility rate that we had before when Bitcoin went from $15k to $20k (for example).

It is already given that during a certain period, Bitcoin fluctuates.  People trade, buy and sell, other plays the market playing along within the support level and resistance.  I hope that you are right about seeing the pattern towards $15k to $20k. and somehow the news about China planning to ban cryto mining won't affect the market.  This kind of news somehow plays as a wild card and often times make the TA and technical predictions to fail.

[figmentofmyass]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

you think we have formed the top of this rally? looks like we're gonna close with a bearish engulfing on the daily.

i was hoping to tag at least $5600 but we're at the point where this is liable to dump at any time. it's been a good ride into this resistance.....

[mikeywith]

you think we have formed the top of this rally? looks like we're gonna close with a bearish engulfing on the daily.

i was hoping to tag at least $5600 but we're at the point where this is liable to dump at any time. it's been a good ride into this resistance.....

not sure if you are following my other thread > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.40

I have mentioned that we were going very likely going to have a rally to the 50SMA which we almost hit , only 2.77% off.

i have also mentioned this

if you entered at the weekly close then you are now at decent profit, move your SL to break even, and start taking profits slowly.

we can very likely test 5600$ but i would exist all long positions and probably enter short positions at 5450$.

price went to as high as 5490$ , 5450 was the perfect place to at least close long potions if you are not into shorting.


we can very likely still touch the 5600$ mark or even have a wick through to 5700$  but the problem with this area in particular is the lack of support. 4600$ is the nearest reasonable support therefore it makes no sense to risk 800$ on the way down for that 150$ on the way up.

but as i type price is at 5080$ so that risk wise is almost equal, if i was still in any long positions  a close below 4590$ would be my SL and the last top 5490$ would be my TP.


i am in shorts potions now, entered at 5450$ , slowly locking in profit despite the fact that the signs are leaning towards a bigger correction to the downside.

[mikeywith]

so, Has Bitcoin Bottomed out ? or are you still waiting for 2k?  

meanwhile, I am watching for a break out on this triangle, gotta be a good move I suppose, don't miss out  !

[STT]

I was thinking also its something of a crossroads, not a time to really stand in the way whichever way it breaks.    Btw 200 weekly and 50 monthly should be fairly close as there is roughly 4 weeks in a month, they are quite near to similar price averages

I'm waiting for daily channel to break, as of yet its mostly threatened to break upwards not downwards; July 2nd low was the best attempt.    It cant be called a failure but at least some of the people in the price were wanting more to build when its only waved up and down for over a fortnight, just that can lead some to sell.   I dont know it leads to a sell but thats really the power move I would expect rather then upwards directly from here.



Any trader wants volatility for the profit of the movement, but dont think thats a reason by itself.    If it were then 6000 would be a good move and its the year average and very familiar bottom pricing to previous sells

[mikeywith]

The possiblity of breaking this channel to the upside is more likely than not, my only concern as of now is that gravestone doji, it clearly shows that the bears are very strong from 12k to 14k , a dozen of sell orders must be there, it is unlikely that we can break it on first attempt.

The other problem is, the next sell-off might continue a bit lower, but overall on an up trend like this one, it is always wiser to bet on the upside.

[Febo]

so, Has Bitcoin Bottomed out ? or are you still waiting for 2k?  

Some are still waiting. But they dont even expect it this year but only mid next year. It almost sounds like trolling.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51741555#msg51741555

[STT]

I agree its better to go with a bullish bet with a trend that has clearly resembled upwards for so long, its not the first time I've heard that over the years.   Expecting a trend break is going against the odds.    You might well be right going on this news which I just spotted, generally when they are wanting to ban BTC its completely ironic and a sign of its growing usage

[mikeywith]

generally when they are wanting to ban BTC its completely ironic and a sign of its growing usage

Technical analysis aside, if you want to be on the winning side, avoid everything the news tell you, when the news are bad, it's a great chance to buy bitcoin, I can almost exactly predict where this rally is going to stop, the new ATH will be right about when everyone and their grandmother start talking about ETF and how the world is just about to adopt BTC and get rid of all the dollar bills , when you hear that shit, go short   , as of now, the news are not so great, which is a very bullish sign as you mentioned, but also they are not as bad, so this rally might be a bit slow.