deisik (OP)
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December 31, 2018, 10:41:41 AM
Last edit: January 08, 2019, 08:52:24 PM by deisik |
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As the famous Warren Buffett once ironically observed, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. Now that the tide is gone, it's time to check what's left and pick it up
Many trading folks, me included, like quoting him, whether spot on or completely beside the point. But the talking crowd doesn't really care about the real insights and nuggets of wisdom this man shares, other than what is right at the surface. And there's always more to his words and sayings than the majority sees. In this post I'm going to show you what it means in practice and how to make use of it
In this particular case, for example, the market crash has shown which coins are going to kick the bucket and which have good chances to survive. But these are extreme cases, while there's a lot of space in between as well as room for action and improvement. Basically, falling prices let you clearly see what assets are performing better and which are worth neither your time nor dime. Bear market is kind of an eye-opener for you and reality check for your investment decisions
And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
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Hydrogen
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January 02, 2019, 05:07:28 PM |
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Bear market is kind of an eye-opener for you and reality check for your investment decisions
And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going
.... Interestingly, we have little indication of a bear market. All economic and business metrics appear positive and hint at growth. What we're seeing with the DOW is a massive dump by whales, executives and major stock holders. It could be coordinated and hint @ market manipulation. These questions are difficult to answer. Especially for someone like me who hasn't paid much attention to markets for a long time and is constantly surprised at the low standards of information available. |
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deisik (OP)
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January 02, 2019, 05:36:25 PM |
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Bear market is kind of an eye-opener for you and reality check for your investment decisions
And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going
.... Interestingly, we have little indication of a bear market. All economic and business metrics appear positive and hint at growth As another famous dude - John Keynes - said, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or something to that tune). From this perspective, it doesn't really matter if the outlooks are bullish and metrics are positive. Anyway, personally I stick to a very simple definition of a bear market. It is the one which goes south for long enough time to consider it in a long-term downtrend If prices continue to decline, the market is infested with bears, end of story |
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bitmover
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January 02, 2019, 06:34:33 PM |
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And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
This would be "buy high, sell low". Concerning traditional investments, a smart asset allocation would tell you to do the opposite. However, as we are in this crazy cryptocurrency market, I don't think it would be wise to buy more of a coin that lost 90% of its value (as it may never recover) I have a few coins that lost about 90% of their value... they are almost worthless now. I will not sell them... because they aren´t worth anymore.. but I will hold, and see if they recover at least a little so I can sell in the future... |
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WinslowIII
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January 02, 2019, 08:33:15 PM |
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Bear market is kind of an eye-opener for you and reality check for your investment decisions
And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going
.... Interestingly, we have little indication of a bear market. All economic and business metrics appear positive and hint at growth If prices continue to decline, the market is infested with bears, end of story What the hell? You have that totally backwards. Every coin sold is a coin bought. Bears sell in bear markets, bulls buy - so the lower prices go the market is being infested with bulls. |
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deisik (OP)
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January 02, 2019, 08:38:31 PM |
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And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
This would be "buy high, sell low" You got it totally backwards If prices continue to decline, the market is infested with bears, end of story
What the hell? You have that totally backwards. Every coin sold is a coin bought. Bears sell in bear markets, bulls buy - so the lower prices go the market is being infested with bulls. If it were so, the prices would be rising Not every coin gets sold, that's what is driving prices down. When there is a rush of sellers wanting to sell at a certain price, there is a lack of buyers at that price, per definition. Then the overwhelming supply is not met with weak demand as some coins in the orderbooks remain unsold. That moves the price lower to a new equilibrium or balance due to competition between sellers as there's always someone willing to sell at whatever price. Sellers stand for bears, buyers for bulls, the end is history |
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WinslowIII
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January 02, 2019, 10:12:09 PM |
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And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
This would be "buy high, sell low" You got it totally backwards If prices continue to decline, the market is infested with bears, end of story
What the hell? You have that totally backwards. Every coin sold is a coin bought. Bears sell in bear markets, bulls buy - so the lower prices go the market is being infested with bulls. If it were so, the prices would be rising Not every coin gets sold, that's what is driving prices down. When there is a rush of sellers wanting to sell at a certain price, there is a lack of buyers at that price, per definition. Then the overwhelming supply is not met with weak demand as some coins in the orderbooks remain unsold. That moves the price lower to a new equilibrium or balance due to competition between sellers as there's always someone willing to sell at whatever price. Sellers stand for bears, buyers for bulls, the end is history I'm talking about those holding bitcoins - as the price tanks, bears leave the market, not inundate it. What you are left with before the next bull market is a market full of bulls, not bears - this is what enables it to achieve the next bull market peak. |
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deisik (OP)
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January 03, 2019, 08:35:34 AM
Last edit: January 04, 2019, 11:00:22 AM by deisik |
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And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
This would be "buy high, sell low" You got it totally backwards If prices continue to decline, the market is infested with bears, end of story
What the hell? You have that totally backwards. Every coin sold is a coin bought. Bears sell in bear markets, bulls buy - so the lower prices go the market is being infested with bulls. If it were so, the prices would be rising Not every coin gets sold, that's what is driving prices down. When there is a rush of sellers wanting to sell at a certain price, there is a lack of buyers at that price, per definition. Then the overwhelming supply is not met with weak demand as some coins in the orderbooks remain unsold. That moves the price lower to a new equilibrium or balance due to competition between sellers as there's always someone willing to sell at whatever price. Sellers stand for bears, buyers for bulls, the end is history I'm talking about those holding bitcoins - as the price tanks, bears leave the market, not inundate it. What you are left with before the next bull market is a market full of bulls, not bears - this is what enables it to achieve the next bull market peak. Oh, now you are talking about the state before the next bull run (implicitly postulating it) Obviously, in a bear market bears don't leave it. If they did so as you (erroneously) assume, the price wouldn't be able to tank so much. Bears are not the ones that just have the coins, they are the ones who have them and want to sell them at the current price, per definition. Note that we are talking about what exists at the moment without making any assumptions about a future market. As I said in my previous post, it is not the coins that get sold, it is the coins that don't and which don't get bought due to not enough buyers, the coins that stay in the orderbooks that make the price drop. It is called resistance, get used to it. If your theory were correct and bears had taken their loot home (or didn't bring it to the table in the first place), we would have already had a bulls market (which we don't yet) |
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Naida_BR
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January 03, 2019, 11:19:58 AM |
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As the famous Warren Buffett once ironically observed, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. Now that the tide is gone, it's time to check what's left and pick it up
Many trading folks, me included, like quoting him, whether spot on or completely beside the point. But the talking crowd doesn't really care about the real insights and nuggets of wisdom this man shares, other than what is right at the surface. And there's always more to his words and sayings than the majority sees. In this post I'm going to show you what it means in practice and how to make use of it
In this particular case, for example, the market crash has shown which coins are going to kick the bucket and which have good chances to survive. But these are extreme cases, while there's a lot of space in between as well as room for action and improvement. Basically, falling prices let you clearly see what assets are performing better and which are not worth your time. Bear market is kind of an eye-opener for you and reality check for your investment decisions
And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
This describes totally and in very detail the whole 2018. The year that passed was a corrective year where we get rid of coins that are not worth being in the crypto market. A bear market is a good indicator that shows which projects are performing well and which are not. I agree with the quote of Warren Buffett but I don't agree with his insights for the cryptocurrency market. |
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deisik (OP)
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January 03, 2019, 11:37:08 AM |
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As the famous Warren Buffett once ironically observed, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. Now that the tide is gone, it's time to check what's left and pick it up
Many trading folks, me included, like quoting him, whether spot on or completely beside the point. But the talking crowd doesn't really care about the real insights and nuggets of wisdom this man shares, other than what is right at the surface. And there's always more to his words and sayings than the majority sees. In this post I'm going to show you what it means in practice and how to make use of it
In this particular case, for example, the market crash has shown which coins are going to kick the bucket and which have good chances to survive. But these are extreme cases, while there's a lot of space in between as well as room for action and improvement. Basically, falling prices let you clearly see what assets are performing better and which are not worth your time. Bear market is kind of an eye-opener for you and reality check for your investment decisions
And this is the whole thing. Bear market allows you not only to see where your investments are going but also lets you easily unwind them by selling poorly performing coins (if we talk about cryptos) and then proceed to buy more resilient coins at half the price as the market goes downhill. That's what most people overlook in bear markets and so fail to take advantage of. In a nutshell, it is a perfect time to change sails or even the ship itself, tide or no tide
This describes totally and in very detail the whole 2018. The year that passed was a corrective year where we get rid of coins that are not worth being in the crypto market. A bear market is a good indicator that shows which projects are performing well and which are not. I agree with the quote of Warren Buffett but I don't agree with his insights for the cryptocurrency market. Maybe, his insight on cryptocurrencies is more like outsight (or overlook). Regardless, he was making himself clear on crypto as early as 2014 (if I'm not mistaken) and then, given the circumstances and even more so for their consequences (the Mt. Gox affair, to give you a lead), his words might have been perfectly justified. And he may regret them now, and he can't possibly accept being wrong as that would question his other words. Other than that, Warren is also notorious for being very cautious about giving assessments on the future behavior of any asset out there His favorite phrase is, "I don't know" |
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Harlot
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January 03, 2019, 11:44:31 AM |
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I always respect the opinion of Warren Buffet even his comments about Bitcoin even though it is harsh and mostly negative I never got offended by it as I know he is talking about it as an investment opportunity and as an investor he couldn't take the risk of buying it into his portfolio. As for me I often get out of my position even before the bear market has affected my gains in this way not only my capital is not affected but it is also set to jump on the next target I am aiming to buy, but surely bear market for me is a buy season in which everything is at a discount. The only hard part about it is picking where you will put your capital on.
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aad140386
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January 03, 2019, 06:30:02 PM |
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You have a very abstract post. If you have found for yourself some coins that you consider really strong, then share it with the others, or why then this post? In the current falling market, everything falls. Bitcoin falls less, altos fall more, but everything falls. If the market starts to grow, the alts will grow faster than the cue ball. According to your philisophy, some of the coins have advantages over others. To be honest, I did not notice a single coin, which would have obvious advantages over others. But if you share your thoughts, I will be grateful.
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deisik (OP)
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January 03, 2019, 06:53:49 PM |
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You have a very abstract post. If you have found for yourself some coins that you consider really strong, then share it with the others, or why then this post? In the current falling market, everything falls. Bitcoin falls less, altos fall more, but everything falls. If the market starts to grow, the alts will grow faster than the cue ball. According to your philisophy, some of the coins have advantages over others. To be honest, I did not notice a single coin, which would have obvious advantages over others. But if you share your thoughts, I will be grateful.
I intentionally tried to keep it abstract Without the danger of being buried and lost in as useless as fruitless arguments and debates that are set to invariably follow otherwise. But truth be told, the reason for this topic was exactly because I personally felt what I'm trying to convey here and what Warren Buffett is warning us of. Basically, I felt it with my own skin in the game that if we cast away all the noise and bullshit produced by crooks like Craig Wright or Roger Ver and their braindead minions, Bitcoin itself is the ultimate survivor Myself, I'm inclined to think it is a game-over for the majority of altcoins, most of them. And if you have other coins, it may be the right time or even the last chance to unwind while the prices are that low (for Bitcoin). Sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear. But even if I'm wrong about Bitcoin, the approach still stands |
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Crypdon
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January 03, 2019, 07:58:11 PM |
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The bear market also tells you which coins get dumped first, these are the ones that people don't really care about - only a punt with a little hope. Most will hang on to major coins like ripple, Cardano and other top 10 coins.
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Oceat
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January 03, 2019, 11:12:51 PM |
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The bear market also tells you which coins get dumped first, these are the ones that people don't really care about - only a punt with a little hope. Most will hang on to major coins like ripple, Cardano and other top 10 coins.
Of course, they will drop since they were just following the path of Bitcoin. And yet we haven't seen the market rising, most people may have accumulated as many tokens they would like to hold in the long run. Most altcoin will follow when Bitcoin starts to have a bull run. And we will just have to wait for that time to come. |
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exstasie
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January 04, 2019, 01:01:50 AM |
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Interestingly, we have little indication of a bear market. All economic and business metrics appear positive and hint at growth.
What we're seeing with the DOW is a massive dump by whales, executives and major stock holders. It could be coordinated and hint @ market manipulation.
These questions are difficult to answer. Especially for someone like me who hasn't paid much attention to markets for a long time and is constantly surprised at the low standards of information available.
The economy is quite strong right now. GDP showed continued growth in 2018 and unemployment is quite low. While there are signs that growth may be close to peaking (in the sense of broad business cycles), I'd agree that people are too hasty to proclaim "bear market." There was arguably a lot of overspeculation in the stock market throughout 2017 and 2018, and now we're on the heels of a strong 10-year bull market. So it shouldn't be any surprise the markets have corrected down to 2017 levels. |
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Natalim
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January 04, 2019, 06:34:45 AM |
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I would agree with that, it's an eye opener, I myself understands now that shit coins has no chance to grow in the bear market, these coins are profitable during the bull, so I keep them, I only knew they were shit coins when they fell hard and seems like no one is interested in trading them.
Going forward, I believe what the bearish market thought us is to be smart and be matured, we've seen our coins potential and in the long run, we will be able to make the right decision based on our experience.
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awik p
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January 04, 2019, 06:55:32 AM |
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I would agree with that, it's an eye opener, I myself understands now that shit coins has no chance to grow in the bear market, these coins are profitable during the bull, so I keep them, I only knew they were shit coins when they fell hard and seems like no one is interested in trading them.
Going forward, I believe what the bearish market thought us is to be smart and be matured, we've seen our coins potential and in the long run, we will be able to make the right decision based on our experience.
but at least dirt coins will take casualties for those who are not yet good at analyzing. moreover the coin is from ico where many investors invest their funds. on the other hand there will be an evolution where only good coins will develop and still exist. so that there will be a positive competition |
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playboy654
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January 04, 2019, 07:46:28 AM |
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I would agree with that, it's an eye opener, I myself understands now that shit coins has no chance to grow in the bear market, these coins are profitable during the bull, so I keep them, I only knew they were shit coins when they fell hard and seems like no one is interested in trading them.
Going forward, I believe what the bearish market thought us is to be smart and be matured, we've seen our coins potential and in the long run, we will be able to make the right decision based on our experience.
but at least dirt coins will take casualties for those who are not yet good at analyzing. moreover the coin is from ico where many investors invest their funds. on the other hand there will be an evolution where only good coins will develop and still exist. so that there will be a positive competition Yes when we are analysing the good things it will be only showing our confident so investing and good times and good way will be the right thing for us and it is the helping equipment for our life doing itself is the better way. |
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deisik (OP)
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January 04, 2019, 08:26:12 AM |
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Interestingly, we have little indication of a bear market. All economic and business metrics appear positive and hint at growth.
What we're seeing with the DOW is a massive dump by whales, executives and major stock holders. It could be coordinated and hint @ market manipulation.
These questions are difficult to answer. Especially for someone like me who hasn't paid much attention to markets for a long time and is constantly surprised at the low standards of information available.
The economy is quite strong right now. GDP showed continued growth in 2018 and unemployment is quite low. While there are signs that growth may be close to peaking (in the sense of broad business cycles), I'd agree that people are too hasty to proclaim "bear market." There was arguably a lot of overspeculation in the stock market throughout 2017 and 2018, and now we're on the heels of a strong 10-year bull market. So it shouldn't be any surprise the markets have corrected down to 2017 levels. I think we should distinguish between real economy and financial one Obviously, stocks may be falling and if you are an investor that may look or feel to you like the end of days, while for the average Joe, I mean, for the one who is not heavily invested in anything (i.e. people from real world with real jobs), things don't necessarily look as grim. After all, the companies whose stocks are falling are not going anywhere provided they produce real value, not air (in Warren Buffett's terms) Apart from that, we shouldn't forget about the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rates (in reasonable limits, of course). When inflation rates rise, unemployment rates typically go down, i.e. more people get employed, which is good for the economy as a whole because the total output increases. To sum it up, things are complicated in the modern world |
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