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Author Topic: Why the Bitcoin Bubble Burst is Good for Crypto  (Read 249 times)
cybersofts
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January 06, 2019, 08:24:57 AM
 #1



Even the most ardent crypto evangelist must admit that bitcoin appears to have been the worst investment of 2018, at least in pure dollar terms. The cryptocurrency has lost almost 80 percent of its market capitalization since it established an all-time high at around $327.15 billion. The adoption rate and volume have dropped likewise. Organizations that were planning to launch their bitcoin-based services have delayed their projects or scrapped them entirely. As any seasoned trader would say, the bitcoin bubble is bursting — or has burst already.


The Anatomy of a Bitcoin Bubble

In pure dollar terms, the bitcoin price is on the downside of its largest-ever price bubble.


The surprising upturns and downturns of a financial market can confuse onlookers. It eventually is a game of passing sentiments – from one investor to another. If one sells, other buys. But in the event of a crash, when one sells, nobody wants to buy. It starts with a few investors dumping assets at high, then spirals outward. Other investors flock the selling action purely because of panic and price starts plummeting faster. It attracts more selling pressure, leading to fission.

What 2018 brought to the bitcoin market was a lot or sellers against limited buyers. In 2017, it was the opposite – more buyers against fewer sellers. The diverse performance of both the financial years, in successive order, shows that investors were purchasing bitcoin on either the speculation of a bull run or to acquire other digital assets that also promised higher returns in less time.

ICOs, as they are called, were a phenomenon back in 2017. Ethereum-enabled blockchain projects, claiming to be the next Apple or Microsoft, raised funds after selling their unregistered, unregulated digital assets for top cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The buy orders, therefore, started piling up, leading the bitcoin’s value to its all-time high at $20,000.

The year 2018 was the time of delivery, but no ICO turned up for the show. According to a research paper published by the Carroll School of Management at Boston College, almost half of the blockchain projects were found to be failing within four months of their introduction.

“What we find is that once you go beyond three months, at most six months, they don’t outperform other cryptocurrencies,” researcher Leonard Kostovetsky had told Bloomberg. “The strongest return is actually in the first month.”

The biggest takeaway is that that these blockchain projects had an ample amount of bitcoin tokens with them. So, they could have likely dumped their bitcoin reserves for fiat to either run away or to pay for their operational costs. Hence, the bubble burst.

Digital Currency Group founder Barry Silbert supported the theory during an interview to CNBC. Galaxy Digital Holdings’ chief Mike Novogratz also told Bloomberg that ICO market is pretty much dead after “a lot of hype,” and that bitcoin will emerge out of its depression down the road.


Bitcoin: the Long Road to Recovery

On the logarithmic charts, bitcoin’s decline looks less concerning.


The bursting of a bubble does not necessarily mean the death of the underlying asset. The financial industry is full of such examples where traditional metrics defined the overvaluation of markets followed by a long-term bearish correction.

The dot-com bubble, for instance, comes close to resembling the crypto bubble. In the late 1990s, the introduction of the internet prompted a massive wave of speculation in dot-com companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which listed most of these tech startups, jumped from under 500 at the beginning of the 90s to establish highs over 5,000 in March 2000. The index plunged by 80 percent after that but recovered back by 2015 to set new highs.

The crypto market has crashed similarly after most of its startups failed after raising millions of dollars in over-hyped investments. Bitcoin, as many believe, is the survivor of a market-wide wipe off.

Lou Kerner, a crypto venture capitalist, called bitcoin the Amazon of crypto, stating that the digital currency would survive the crypto bubble burst similarly to how Amazon did after the dot-com crash.

“If you go back to the internet bubble, which is what a lot of us in crypto look at for direction, Amazon, arguably one of the greatest companies in the history of the mankind, was down over 95 percent over two years,” he told CNBC in November.

    Crypto has been so weak because most of it there’s no underlying value outside of confidence. [But] bitcoin, itself, we think is going to replace gold eventually. Gold is an $8 trillion thing.

The market is already preparing a welcome for bitcoin as it transits from retail to more serious institutions in 2019. Bakkt, a bitcoin futures platform backed by Intercontinental Exchange, will be launched at the end of January. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would also provide its final take on the VanEck’s bitcoin ETF which, if approved, could open the gates of multi-billion dollars worth of investments into the bitcoin space.


Bitcoin Dominance Rising

Bitcoin’s market share climbed, even as its price declined.


Bitcoin dominance refers to the market share of bitcoin against the rest of the crypto market. Ever since the crash started taking place, investors constantly flocked back towards bitcoin. Since November, bitcoin has been occupying around 50 percent of the entire crypto market, reflecting investors’ improved sentiment.

Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp, in his latest report, also found that Bitcoin is growing on almost the metrics other than economics. In 2018, the crypto market led by the digital currency raised $3.12 billion in investment, four times more than in 2017; the academic and user interest in it grew twofold; the coin’s development repository saw more commits than any other crypto project; and its Lightning Network solution gained momentum all across the community.

“Yes, bitcoin fared poorly [concerning the] exchange rate in 2018,” said Lopp. “But by almost any other metric the system is improving and growing. Those of us who are dedicated to this system shall continue to BUILD and add value; we have no control over the market, but I expect that it will catch up to us sooner or later.”

With strong fundamentals behind it, bitcoin would most likely correct, but it would be more mature than the earlier corrections. Rich investors, who are already hit by a US stock market crash, would be more inclined to move their value towards safe havens like the dollar, the yen, and gold. Bitcoin, being a relatively new phenomenon, could catch their eyes once its infrastructure will be ready to handle more volume and liquidity.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/op-ed-why-the-bitcoin-bubble-burst-is-good-for-crypto/
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January 06, 2019, 08:37:25 AM
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Galaxy Digital Holdings’ chief Mike Novogratz also told Bloomberg that ICO market is pretty much dead after “a lot of hype,” and that bitcoin will emerge out of its depression down the road.

Seems like Novogratz is finally in capitulation mode. He wasn't singing this tune at all several months back. That's really encouraging to see. I was starting to wonder if he and Tom Lee were ever going to give in. I'm glad to hear the ICO market is all but dead too. We've been waiting patiently for that market to deflate.

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Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp, in his latest report, also found that Bitcoin is growing on almost the metrics other than economics. In 2018, the crypto market led by the digital currency raised $3.12 billion in investment, four times more than in 2017; the academic and user interest in it grew twofold; the coin’s development repository saw more commits than any other crypto project; and its Lightning Network solution gained momentum all across the community.

“Yes, bitcoin fared poorly [concerning the] exchange rate in 2018,” said Lopp. “But by almost any other metric the system is improving and growing. Those of us who are dedicated to this system shall continue to BUILD and add value; we have no control over the market, but I expect that it will catch up to us sooner or later.”

Good stuff. Reminds me a lot of 2014. The next bubble will be epic.

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January 06, 2019, 08:50:00 AM
 #3

I see the burst as another opportunity for people to buy cheap bitcoins because many of us failed to fill our pockets before 2017 market boom.
This is an opportunity for us to buy cheaper bitcoins, HODL, and sell later when the price is high - at the next bull run, lol. who agrees with me?     
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January 06, 2019, 03:38:37 PM
 #4

The best part is that we had so many coins and so many people trying to start new coins to get rich quick will be dying off slowly and will be gone forever. Even if a bull comes later we will see the googles and amazons of the world getting bigger and bigger (bitcoin and ethereum respectively) but meanwhile smaller horrible ones will die and people will forget they even existed.

Thinking about spending a trillion dollar cap back in the day into a thousand crypto currencies makes me cring, if we managed to squeeze that into just top 20 coins instead of diluting the crypto space we could have had a much much bigger bitcoin/ethereum and all the other top 20 coins instead of sharing it with other smaller coins. With the new bull people will be careful about smaller coins and will instead try to invest into bigger ones which will make the next bull much better.


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February 04, 2019, 05:37:21 PM
 #5


Thinking about spending a trillion dollar cap back in the day into a thousand crypto currencies makes me cring, if we managed to squeeze that into just top 20 coins instead of diluting the crypto space we could have had a much much bigger bitcoin/ethereum and all the other top 20 coins instead of sharing it with other smaller coins. With the new bull people will be careful about smaller coins and will instead try to invest into bigger ones which will make the next bull much better.

well
so that mean , era of ICO is over ?
if people do like what u say ,
of course , we can see hundreds of coins will die.
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February 06, 2019, 06:53:20 AM
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Thinking about spending a trillion dollar cap back in the day into a thousand crypto currencies makes me cring, if we managed to squeeze that into just top 20 coins instead of diluting the crypto space we could have had a much much bigger bitcoin/ethereum and all the other top 20 coins instead of sharing it with other smaller coins. With the new bull people will be careful about smaller coins and will instead try to invest into bigger ones which will make the next bull much better.

well
so that mean , era of ICO is over ?
if people do like what u say ,
of course , we can see hundreds of coins will die.

Yeah,the good news is that the shitty ICO era plus the "small pump&dump altcoin" era are over.Nobody is buying into this shit anymore.Which means that more money will be concentrated into the big cryptos,during the next big bull run,which means the next crypto bubble will be epic.

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February 06, 2019, 07:34:39 AM
 #7

it seems like some people are always way too late to the party and never fail to be late! at this point talking about bitcoin bubble and its burst is like talking about ancient history that has been long over and concluded. we are 85% below the bubble ATH for goodness sake. and yeah it was a good thing for bitcoin when it happened and those of us who knew better were saying it ever since.
now is the time for talking about how accumulation is good for you when price is still low and near the bottom although it may not be the lowest price.

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February 06, 2019, 01:53:36 PM
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It is also not talking about how the bubble existing in the first place is not really good but aftermath could be good.

I understand that a bubble crashing could potentially have benefits but also at the same time I think being a bubble is the cause of all this problems.

People look at the ICO's and 20 thousands and so forth and they say "well it wasn't sustainable so look at it this way at least we will have an amazon of crypto", I understand bitcoin will be amazon of crypto but why would we have a dotcom bubble to begin with, why have something that is not sustainable to begin with ?

Why wouldn't we slowly increase from 800 dollars 2 years ago to 3500 today in a slow and steady manner instead of having all these ups and downs constantly? Wouldn't that be better than the bubble and crash ?
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February 06, 2019, 08:31:53 PM
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Why wouldn't we slowly increase from 800 dollars 2 years ago to 3500 today in a slow and steady manner instead of having all these ups and downs constantly? Wouldn't that be better than the bubble and crash ?

Better? Maybe, but it would be incredibly unnatural. Bitcoin is so volatile because it's incredibly speculative. Many people think it will revolutionize money and during the bull markets that attitude dominates, so speculators try to front run adoption through investment. On the other hand, many people think it will crash and burn like tulip mania, and during the bear markets this attitude (that Bitcoin is a bubble) dominates.

Sentiment fluctuates between these two poles the same way the market fluctuates from bull to bear and back to bull. It's impossible to prevent this boom-bust style action because we're all intensely speculating about what the future will look like. Bitcoin could be mass adopted (millions USD) or it could be abandoned (zero). In between is a whole lot of volatility. I would never expect it to be slow and steady.

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February 08, 2019, 11:29:15 PM
 #10

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The bursting of a bubble does not necessarily mean the death of the underlying asset. The financial industry is full of such examples where traditional metrics defined the overvaluation of markets followed by a long-term bearish correction.

That should be your main take away from the article.

Bull and bear markets are inevitable, in all markets. Bitcoin is no different, except the fact that its idea is quite foreign to a lot of people mean that media will often make things out worse than they actually are, and investors will panic much more significantly when prices are dropping in a bear market. The fact that bitcoin is decentralized and has no price control mechanism also means that market swings can be significantly larger.

But does the bear market actually do any damage to bitcoin itself, as a currency, and its ability to transact value globally, over the internet? Absolutely not. In fact, it could even wipe out some unrealistic expectations of bitcoin that has been developing through the bull market that are completely unsustainable. Bitcoin has not intrinsically changed, all that has is the price, and given that institutions and investors in general are still showing big time interest in bitcoin I don't see any reason to be concerned whatsoever.

 
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February 09, 2019, 11:34:11 AM
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Even the most ardent crypto evangelist must admit that bitcoin appears to have been the worst investment of 2018, at least in pure dollar terms.
I'm not an evangelist by any means, never mind being the most ardent, nor most knowledgeable but Bitcoin's anything but the worst investment anyone could have made in 2018. I can think of at least 2 fiat currencies that lost way more than 80% of their value last year.

Even if we're talking of 1 asset class (crypto), almost any other crypto was outperformed by Bitcoin (or rather, performed worse).

In pure dollar terms, the bitcoin price is on the downside of its largest-ever price bubble.
I think the largest bubble hasn't been surpassed... refer to post Mt Gox.

The year 2018 was the time of delivery, but no ICO turned up for the show. According to a research paper published by the Carroll School of Management at Boston College, almost half of the blockchain projects were found to be failing within four months of their introduction.

Sounds like an underestimation. Probably more accurate, half didn't even try to succeed. Half that did didn't have a chance. I can't think of any project in 2018 that should have delivered a product that could safely call itself a success. It was those in 2016 and 17 that really made something that at least had a community of users.

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February 11, 2019, 09:35:26 AM
 #12

The bubble burst of bitcoin is good becouse  it being bitcoin price to the level were every one can invest.  New investors that desire to buy bitcoin when it was very cheap are now happy because with  $3600 one can now Buy a whole bitcoin that went as high $20,000 in December 2017. Of a truth the continue bearish market has affected every thing and many investors has lose hope of recovery but we strongly believe and encourage those that are buying now to continue as bitcoin is going to recover in no time.
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February 11, 2019, 10:07:44 AM
 #13

The bubble burst of bitcoin is good becouse  it being bitcoin price to the level were every one can invest.  New investors that desire to buy bitcoin when it was very cheap are now happy because with  $3600 one can now Buy a whole bitcoin that went as high $20,000 in December 2017. Of a truth the continue bearish market has affected every thing and many investors has lose hope of recovery but we strongly believe and encourage those that are buying now to continue as bitcoin is going to recover in no time.

I don't think that there are new investors buying in just because the price is very cheap. New investors are getting smarter I believed, and won't simply willing to take the risk on getting in today even if the price is still at a discount.

Mostly new investors loves to FOMO, so there's no way for them purchase at this long bearish market because they wanted to earn a quick and easy money and won't wait or HODL or it for a long time.

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February 11, 2019, 02:26:58 PM
 #14

I don't think that there are new investors buying in just because the price is very cheap. New investors are getting smarter I believed, and won't simply willing to take the risk on getting in today even if the price is still at a discount.

I think that new investors initially believed that buying dips was a good thing, but they have rekt themselves hard last year by doing so.

In the end, I don't believe that current prices are really that cheap, short term speaking. Looking at the price, and how we've been hovering between $3200 and $4000 for quite some time now, more people seem to consider this range to not offer an interesting enough discount. In fact, from what I have seen around me, and here on this forum, it really seems that people expect sub $3000 levels and save up their fiat for that.
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February 11, 2019, 02:28:12 PM
 #15

New investors are getting smarter I believed, and won't simply willing to take the risk on getting in today even if the price is still at a discount.

Mostly new investors loves to FOMO, so there's no way for them purchase at this long bearish market

The smart thing to do would be to buy at a cheap price when everyone else is undecided, rather than joining rhe bandwagon and buying with the FOMO, at which point you would be selling to the smart investors who purchased at lower prices, leaving you with an overpriced asset.
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February 11, 2019, 03:21:22 PM
 #16

By making the bubble blow and drop the price in order that investors are able to buy more isn't a good strategy that helps crypto. The are many more people that have bought their cryptocurrency with their life savings expecting to make a decent profit. If bubbles blow then these people will spread FUD that will eventually harm more the market and for a not actual reason.

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February 12, 2019, 08:18:30 PM
 #17

Even the most ardent crypto evangelist must admit that bitcoin appears to have been the worst investment of 2018, at least in pure dollar terms. The cryptocurrency has lost almost 80 percent of its market capitalization since it established an all-time high at around $327.15 billion. The adoption rate and volume have dropped likewise. Organizations that were planning to launch their bitcoin-based services have delayed their projects or scrapped them entirely. As any seasoned trader would say, the bitcoin bubble is bursting — or has burst already

That depends on which side of the trade you were on

For example, if you were shorting all the way down from 20k to 3k, 2018 was likely one of the most profitable years ever since Bitcoin's "known" history (i.e. since 2013) and quite comparable to what you might have earned if you were long since 2015 and till December 2017. Regarding halted or paused adoption, I don't believe in that as there was nothing to halt or pause. Most of these so-called "bitcoin-based services" were vaporware anyway (aimed at earning quick buck through hype), so nothing to be sad about

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February 12, 2019, 09:25:38 PM
 #18

The bitcoin bubble is an absolutely normal phenomenon - this market is quite young and it is actively developing, therefore the development of a market of this magnitude will always be associated with very high volatility, and this will be expressed in the fact that the bubble will periodically strongly inflate and then greatly deflate.

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February 12, 2019, 11:13:25 PM
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 #19

Mostly new investors loves to FOMO, so there's no way for them purchase at this long bearish market because they wanted to earn a quick and easy money and won't wait or HODL or it for a long time.
What else is there to do for people only knowing to buy low and sell high? There isn't much to do other than to wait for better times. Buying altcoins doesn't help either because they randomly pump. Try to guess which one pumps next....

Some however are starting to figure out how BitMEX works and try their luck there betting on up or down swings with insane leverage counts. It's sad to see how people force themselves to "make profit", but it's their fault entirely.

Some times it's better to stay away from the market and focus on other things....

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February 21, 2019, 08:54:03 AM
 #20

Yes, the bubble is a good thing because it is shuffling the market, removing the good from the bad and throwing the bad into the waste bin.

We have seen this from the ICO trend where many ICO companies are nowhere to be found because their coin is now shit coin and don't add any value whatsoever to this our great community. The project that would be left standing are the good ones.

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