Hello subscribers and other traders. This week I'm going to do something a little different. We have seen some seriously crazy price action this past week, and it's given me a lot of data to process. For this week's report, I wanted to fully explore some of the errors in last week's projections for reasons of both accountability and rigor. I'm currently testing a hypothesis about leading versus lagging patterns in the indicator data, and the game theory involved in the snapback we just saw. I also want to leverage some python scripts that I've been putting together to get a more solid picture of the data, as the price function has been seriously testing my methods lately. I suspect that there are a few hidden assumptions that hold mainly during bullish price action that do not hold during bear markets, as most of the data I have collected I did so during upwards trends.
Since my reports are generally a combination of general analysis and short-term projections, I will be posting below a projection for the next week that leverages the models I have already published in previous reports so that you all will have something to work with for the next 24 hours. This will save space in the full publication which will be largely devoted to re-analysis of the the same indicator data sets that I explored last week to form a more complete model for Bitcoin price behavior during bear markets, and more specific price-targets to complement the projection below.
This full report will be released via email in pdf form tomorrow evening (EST).
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all graphs are 3-day scaleA, linear scale
https://i.imgur.com/9fJskBL.pngB, log scale
https://i.imgur.com/9jhivU6.pngC, linear scale with exponential moving resistance
https://i.imgur.com/4SOWpsD.png---
A shows one possible mid-term resistance modeled as a line defined by the last ATH and the third local maximum at around $700 (these are the points upon which the drawn line was constructed). its multiple points of contact in recent price data and lack of major violations make it relatively robust.
B shows a line constructed from the same two points, but projected onto a log-scale graph. it, too, is relatively robust with multiple points of contact and only one minor violation.
C is a composite graph on a linear scale with the log-scale line appropriately transformed into an exponential decay curve. you can see that they are built on the same two points as that is where they intersect. there is a significant amount of evidence to suggest that most linear phenomenon, like the moving support/resistance that defines triangles, are actually better modeled with exponential decay curves, but the linear models work well on most scales.
i created this chart to visualise the two competing mid-term resistances. one of them overlaps with the linear short-term resistance that drove the price slowly downward during March (FIGURE A), and the other one is better modeled on the log-scale chart and is significantly higher.
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why are we bothering with locating the resistance? because the same fractal model i detailed on
page 17, Week of 31 March*, can be applied to the current price environment (please refer to the bolded page for the diagram i am annotating.):
in the first two iterations of the pattern, the
c-phase is associated with a long-wicked "reversal" candle. in these iterations, this phase is also terminated when a new high is made above the high associated with the long-wicked candle. once this price point is reached, the
a-phase begins, a bullish resolution.
in the third iteration of the pattern, the
c-phase fails to exhibit a strong recovery in prices, and shows a bearish resolution as the price makes a new low. of course, this is also apparent in the
C-phase, in the largest fractal.
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in conclusion, the 3-day-scale price data shown above has met the criteria for an "auxiliary
c-phase" with a bullish resolution. we have made a new high above the high associated with the long-wicked reversal candle. the next
a-phase should roughly correspond with a strong bullish correction up to the mid-term resistance, as in the two similar iterations.
in effect, over the course of next week i expect a strong movement up to at least the linear resistance followed by a short bullish consolidation, and then a final move up to the decay-curve resistance.
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6-hour scale
https://i.imgur.com/KVsTRmn.png---
at this very moment we are forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern which, in this price environment, tends to also be a
continuation pattern, meaning it will break out in the same direction as the trend. this formation is micro-term bullish
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further analysis to be included in this week's report. it has really been a great joy publishing my work and i appreciate you all bearing with my sometimes hectic schedule.
--arepo
*please ignore the barely visible black-type "A", it was an error
