Why the Crypto Market Remains ‘Moderately Bearish’ in 2019

[Lmaooo]

With the exception of Ethereum, which seems to have started the year with all guns blazing ahead of the Constantinople fork, it won’t surprise anyone that the market analysts SFOX rate crypto as “moderately bearish” entering 2019. In fact, with further sharp drops in all major coins today, perhaps even the word “moderately” is wishful thinking.

However, unlike many price predictions based on the instincts of even the most credible CEO or economist, the SFOX Volatility Report is based on more than just sentiment.

The cryptocurrency dealer and market analyst takes into account trading volume, price, and volatility data from eight major exchanges. They then come up with an index by analyzing three major factors: market sentiment, volatility, and how the sector, in general, is advancing.

Throughout 2018, this index ranged from highly bullish to positively bearish with November and December the most volatile months on record.

CCN | https://www.ccn.com/why-the-crypto-market-remains-moderately-bearish-in-2019/

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[mahilchii]

That's really frustrating to see the CMC chart. The prices of top coins are dropping very cheaply, I was hoping for a massive pump as the first priority but crypto has some other thoughts. I think some big whales will be behind this downfall.

[pooya87]

With the exception of Ethereum, which seems to have started the year with all guns blazing ahead of the Constantinople fork,

ETH is a pump and dump coin and it only got pumped because of its fork hype and the time was right too since it was dumped hard prior to the small pump (down to $80ish). not to mention that it wasn't "guns blazing" pump either since it was a small pump which couldn't even bring it to $200! and it was killed in its infancy.

it won’t surprise anyone that the market analysts SFOX rate crypto as “moderately bearish” entering 2019.

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.

[Kemarit]

That's really frustrating to see the CMC chart. The prices of top coins are dropping very cheaply, I was hoping for a massive pump as the first priority but crypto has some other thoughts. I think some big whales will be behind this downfall.

Then you need to be mentally tough here because we will see the price fluctuating wildly in the first quarter. There's no indication of bull run and we might experience another drop to $3000 something if panic sellers will push the sell button. Possible that whales tried to manipulate the price again, or speculators getting bored of the sideways trend we have been seeing and just decided to dump to take some profits, rinse and repeat.

[clrpod]

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.

Just because the price didn't break that support level yet doesn't mean the market is overall bearish. It may not be bearish for the last month or so we've been stuck in this range but for the last year the price has been trending downwards. Until there are 2-3+ months of growth the market will and should still be considered as bearish.

[gabmen]

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.

Just because the price didn't break that support level yet doesn't mean the market is overall bearish. It may not be bearish for the last month or so we've been stuck in this range but for the last year the price has been trending downwards. Until there are 2-3+ months of growth the market will and should still be considered as bearish.

I agree. A little push upwards doesn't take us out of the woods by a long shot. The bears for me still hold the advantage over the bulls who seem to be enjoying themselves hibernating and watching people being beaten black and blue.

[budiarmed]

Still in bear market conditions because recovery cannot be done in a short time with poor market conditions, remain calm and be patient.

[dothebeats]

I'd cling more on the market's sentiment which will cause the poor performance of the cryptomarket in 2019. Most people won't buy into a mess when there are no definite signals available anywhere; they need some sort of assurance that their money isn't going to a waste. As for the developments happening within the ecosystem, I'm pretty sure that most people are just waiting for Bakkt to launch and that's pretty much their signal in buying (that is if it gets approved, he he), but for now, everything is mere speculation and assumption by us.

[StarofBTC]

All of these bearish forecasts are basing their theory on one thing ; volume. We have really low volume and always have a chaotic drop whenever a big sell happens. Now it is quite easy to sell 500 million dollar worth of bitcoin considering there are early investors and really rich folks who got into bitcoin a bit later.

However, its a lot harder to buy 500 million dollar worth of bitcoins considering it is first of a legal hassle for tax reasons plus you would make the market go higher because of your buy order and wouldn't be capable of buying bitcoin at the market value because of your own big purchase.

If the volume keeps staying low all we have to have is one big sell like Craig did 2 months ago and we will see another big drop in the price which is why bitcoin and crypto in general is "moderately bearish" until we get to a level where either price is high again so we don't have to worry about the drop or we have big enough volume to eat up any big sales.

[thecodebear]

Moderately bearish in that I expect the price to stay between $3000 and $4500 (also possible to see a brief drop below 3000) for the next half year or so yes. It's moderately bearish because there is no reason to expect the bull run to start in the near future (though certainly I think later in the year).

[arpon11]

With the exception of Ethereum, which seems to have started the year with all guns blazing ahead of the Constantinople fork, it won’t surprise anyone that the market analysts SFOX rate crypto as “moderately bearish” entering 2019. In fact, with further sharp drops in all major coins today, perhaps even the word “moderately” is wishful thinking.

However, unlike many price predictions based on the instincts of even the most credible CEO or economist, the SFOX Volatility Report is based on more than just sentiment.

The cryptocurrency dealer and market analyst takes into account trading volume, price, and volatility data from eight major exchanges. They then come up with an index by analyzing three major factors: market sentiment, volatility, and how the sector, in general, is advancing.

Throughout 2018, this index ranged from highly bullish to positively bearish with November and December the most volatile months on record.

CCN | https://www.ccn.com/why-the-crypto-market-remains-moderately-bearish-in-2019/

November and December has been the most volatile time of the year and 2018 was not exempted.  I think the word moderate bearish is not familiar with some of us traders and I am coming across it for first time. However,  the bearish trend that started since January 2018 till this moment has cage the bull traders and it is truth that many of them has started to change strategies by hedging bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies with usdt.  Traders are taking little profits from the little movements that happened to bitcoin and others coins and that has makes the pricing to remain in bearish position.

[mikeywith]

TA confirms the theory as well, i pointed this out on one of my analysis, anyone who has been through a few bear market knows that it's always followed by some sort of flat likely bearish swing that can last for months/years.

some people think that going up will be as at the same speed of going down, this is wrong, look at the charts, history always repeats itself

Bear > sideways > Bull

if we would assume that 3.2k was our bottom, then we can range between the bottom and 5-6k for at least Q1,Q2,Q3 of 2019,  the only good thing about crypto that even in it's flat season the gains and the losses are a lot , due to this small market cap, everything from now or wherever the bottom is, will be slow until the break of ATH again when then we will see some fast upward movements, but going by the book, everything now points to a boring year, nothing major till 2020.

[clrpod]

TA confirms the theory as well, i pointed this out on one of my analysis, anyone who has been through a few bear market knows that it's always followed by some sort of flat likely bearish swing that can last for months/years.

some people think that going up will be as at the same speed of going down, this is wrong, look at the charts, history always repeats itself

Bear > sideways > Bull

if we would assume that 3.2k was our bottom, then we can range between the bottom and 5-6k for at least Q1,Q2,Q3 of 2019,  the only good thing about crypto that even in it's flat season the gains and the losses are a lot , due to this small market cap, everything from now or wherever the bottom is, will be slow until the break of ATH again when then we will see some fast upward movements, but going by the book, everything now points to a boring year, nothing major till 2020.

Precisely, it's happened every time so far with bitcoin and with nearly everything form of investment ever. Confidence in a market takes time to recover. The only people who are truly in belief that the price will make a miraculously recover in the matter of weeks or a couple of months are clearly clueless as to the way things work and always will be.

[pooya87]

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.

Just because the price didn't break that support level yet doesn't mean the market is overall bearish. It may not be bearish for the last month or so we've been stuck in this range but for the last year the price has been trending downwards. Until there are 2-3+ months of growth the market will and should still be considered as bearish.

not at all.
we don't need the bull market to start (in other words we don't need to see 2-3 months of big rises) for the bear market to end. the thing is, even the drop below $6k doesn't make the current trend "bearish" at least in my opinion because if you look at WHY it dropped this low you can see that it wasn't because of some trend or anything like that. that trend (the bearish one) had ended long time ago. the drop was purely because of a large scale attack on bitcoin from the BCash people which whales got behind to make more money from shorting bitcoin.
that in my view is not a "trend", it is more like an incident

[5ensei]

Calling it an incident makes perfect sense. The stable price for bitcoin should still be $6500 and it would still be if not for the BCH hash war. When bitmain gets control of itself and people stop wasting time on ABC / SV then bitcoin and the rest of the market will get back to normal

[el kaka22]

We all see this bearish news all the time recently, ever since 2019 started we all have been seeing these news that talk about how bitcoin still looks bearish, how bitcoin will reach new lows before going up, how volume is not enough.

I am starting to think maybe there are people in the world with enough money to create some sort of FUD in order to make people sell their coins and drop the price so they can buy cheap before the SEC and Bakkt happens, after all we are all waiting for that news and if both of them happen together than the price should be going really high and what better way to spend your money than making sure bitcoin drops before those things happen and buying bitcoin.

You don't even have to make a huge amount of "donation" to these news websites, if you give them the news they will publish it.

[deisik]

With the exception of Ethereum, which seems to have started the year with all guns blazing ahead of the Constantinople fork, it won’t surprise anyone that the market analysts SFOX rate crypto as “moderately bearish” entering 2019. In fact, with further sharp drops in all major coins today, perhaps even the word “moderately” is wishful thinking

I wouldn't rely too much on the coming Constantinople fork of Ethereum. The forks we have seen recently (like the one which led to the so-called hash wars) seem not to have a refreshing effect on stagnating prices lately (as we have been trending sideways since November crash), if only downwards. Apart from that, Ethereum itself and its forks are not trustworthy in my opinion. Last time they did something to that tune, it ended with a disaster and led to creation of yet another fork that became known as Ethereum Classic (which, as I suspect, is not much better either)

Or it may be not the last time really, but you get the point

[BrewMaster]

With the exception of Ethereum, which seems to have started the year with all guns blazing ahead of the Constantinople fork, it won’t surprise anyone that the market analysts SFOX rate crypto as “moderately bearish” entering 2019. In fact, with further sharp drops in all major coins today, perhaps even the word “moderately” is wishful thinking

I wouldn't rely too much on the coming Constantinople fork of Ethereum. The forks we have seen recently (like the one which led to the so-called hash wars) seem not to have a refreshing effect on stagnating prices lately (as we have been trending sideways since November crash), if only downwards. Apart from that, Ethereum itself and its forks are not trustworthy in my opinion. Last time they did something to that tune, it ended with a disaster and led to creation of yet another fork that became known as Ethereum Classic (which, as I suspect, is not much better either)

Or it may be not the last time really, but you get the point

the hype of that fork seems to already be over and in fact i believe the recent small drop in bitcoin price might have been because of the ETH fork hype dying off and the whales dumping the  coins they bought for short term profit.
people doesn't seem to be so happy about the big change they are forcing on them regarding this switch from PoW to an inferior algorithm.

[deisik]

With the exception of Ethereum, which seems to have started the year with all guns blazing ahead of the Constantinople fork, it won’t surprise anyone that the market analysts SFOX rate crypto as “moderately bearish” entering 2019. In fact, with further sharp drops in all major coins today, perhaps even the word “moderately” is wishful thinking

I wouldn't rely too much on the coming Constantinople fork of Ethereum. The forks we have seen recently (like the one which led to the so-called hash wars) seem not to have a refreshing effect on stagnating prices lately (as we have been trending sideways since November crash), if only downwards. Apart from that, Ethereum itself and its forks are not trustworthy in my opinion. Last time they did something to that tune, it ended with a disaster and led to creation of yet another fork that became known as Ethereum Classic (which, as I suspect, is not much better either)

Or it may be not the last time really, but you get the point

the hype of that fork seems to already be over and in fact i believe the recent small drop in bitcoin price might have been because of the ETH fork hype dying off and the whales dumping the  coins they bought for short term profit.
people doesn't seem to be so happy about the big change they are forcing on them regarding this switch from PoW to an inferior algorithm

Wow, they are going to switch over to POS, right?

That would be exceptionally interesting to see how things will proceed with this fork. Though I would no doubt sell my ethers if I had any. Yeah, I know you already expect this question, but why do you think that POS is an inferior algo compared to POW, really?

From my perspective, POW is a huge waste of electricity, making Bitcoin (or any other coin using it) completely unfit as a world money if it ever comes to that. And it is not only that, of course

[1Referee]

Possible that whales tried to manipulate the price again, or speculators getting bored of the sideways trend we have been seeing and just decided to dump to take some profits, rinse and repeat.

It's not manipulation, just a logical movement. It failed to break out, so what usually happens is that the price goes down. If you don't sell, then someone else will, and that usually triggers a bit of a panic reaction.

We're very close to the point where in 2015 the price found its all time bottom around $152 so it will be interesting to see if we see something similar happen this time. Considering how similar the selloffs were, it wouldn't even surprise me, especially with how tax sales could also be a factor to take into consideration with how we have more professional entities in the space than ever before.