Why the Crypto Market Remains ‘Moderately Bearish’ in 2019

[deisik]

We're very close to the point where in 2015 the price found its all time bottom around $152 so it will be interesting to see if we see something similar happen this time. Considering how similar the selloffs were, it wouldn't even surprise me, especially with how tax sales could also be a factor to take into consideration with how we have more professional entities in the space than ever before

Let's hope you will be right, this time like never before

With that said, though, let's not forget that in 2015 there actually were two lows. The first, which you already mentioned, was set somewhere in January or February (don't remember which month for certain), while the second in late August of that year when the price went below $200 for a few minutes at Bitfinex (I had been there and seen the exact moment with my own eyes). And if there is in fact some similarity between then and now, we may have to wait a little longer than most of us expect or hope

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[clrpod]

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.

Just because the price didn't break that support level yet doesn't mean the market is overall bearish. It may not be bearish for the last month or so we've been stuck in this range but for the last year the price has been trending downwards. Until there are 2-3+ months of growth the market will and should still be considered as bearish.

not at all.
we don't need the bull market to start (in other words we don't need to see 2-3 months of big rises) for the bear market to end. the thing is, even the drop below $6k doesn't make the current trend "bearish" at least in my opinion because if you look at WHY it dropped this low you can see that it wasn't because of some trend or anything like that. that trend (the bearish one) had ended long time ago. the drop was purely because of a large scale attack on bitcoin from the BCash people which whales got behind to make more money from shorting bitcoin.
that in my view is not a "trend", it is more like an incident

6k to 3k may not have been because of a trend. 20k down to 6k was and remaining at around 3k following the dip is also a sign of that. If it was just because of an incident (as you put it) then we'd have seen a swift reversal back towards 6k. We didn't see that because people were still bearish enough not to want to buy up the supply even at lower levels.

[tomahawk9]

I am starting to think maybe there are people in the world with enough money to create some sort of FUD in order to make people sell their coins and drop the price so they can buy cheap before the SEC and Bakkt happens

I think we've experienced that sort of stuff in the past. News outlets don't exactly release FUD articles just because they want to create panic among bitcoin holders, there's gotta be some sort of shady stuff going on behind the scenes that makes these websites (like cnbc or cnn) want to spread bullshit articles. But I doubt the last drop was due to some whales trying to tank the prices so that other whales can buy cheap, or because of some FUD, I think it was mainly a pullback after not being ble to break the 4k, again.

[South Park]

That's really frustrating to see the CMC chart. The prices of top coins are dropping very cheaply, I was hoping for a massive pump as the first priority but crypto has some other thoughts. I think some big whales will be behind this downfall.

If it was not for the whales it is likely the price will be even lower, after all who do you think is buying all the coins of the investors that panicked and were selling their coins? The whales of course, so if anything we should be happy the whales believe in this market and buy so many coins, but whales despite their power cannot make the price of most coins to go up so until more investors decide to come back to the market we are stuck with a market which will not move much.

[BitHodler]

If it was not for the whales it is likely the price will be even lower, after all who do you think is buying all the coins of the investors that panicked and were selling their coins? The whales of course, so if anything we should be happy the whales believe in this market and buy so many coins, but whales despite their power cannot make the price of most coins to go up so until more investors decide to come back to the market we are stuck with a market which will not move much.

It's good to see someone defend whales rather than accusing them of manipulating the price downwards to buy in cheaper. There is no shortage of whales are manipulators fools in here....

Most of the people don't provide buy support to an exchange, whales do. The average buyer places an order at market price and have it filled near instantly in most cases.

Whales provide buy support to protect what they hold in Bitcoin, which means that they protect your value as well. It's hard to think of entities who aren't down from +$6000 to where we are right now in terms of USD portfolio value.

[deisik]

That's really frustrating to see the CMC chart. The prices of top coins are dropping very cheaply, I was hoping for a massive pump as the first priority but crypto has some other thoughts. I think some big whales will be behind this downfall.

If it was not for the whales it is likely the price will be even lower, after all who do you think is buying all the coins of the investors that panicked and were selling their coins? The whales of course, so if anything we should be happy the whales believe in this market and buy so many coins, but whales despite their power cannot make the price of most coins to go up so until more investors decide to come back to the market we are stuck with a market which will not move much

Actually, it perfectly well works in reverse too

Or who do you think is driving prices down these days, sharks or small fish? Without whales we would be trading in a very narrow range at whatever price, though at higher prices, as I explained in this topic, the market becomes a lot more volatile and basically anyone with a couple of bitcoins in their pockets can easily move the price in either direction (or start an avalanche of sell-offs). So any way you look at it, it is the whales who are responsible for any big price action, and as we are going downhill most of the time now, it is them at work as well

[xuan87]

I think there are few reasons why the expert think we are going to have bearish market in 2019, I think the investors still frustrated with the big correction in 2018 so they don't really dare to make huge purchase yet, and many people think that the market still full of manipulators,so the chance to make profits is hard, and with no big companies said want to adopt crypto then the gloomy situation might be continue, but it's just a prediction, everything still can change

[deisik]

I think there are few reasons why the expert think we are going to have bearish market in 2019, I think the investors still frustrated with the big correction in 2018 so they don't really dare to make huge purchase yet, and many people think that the market still full of manipulators,so the chance to make profits is hard, and with no big companies said want to adopt crypto then the gloomy situation might be continue, but it's just a prediction, everything still can change

This is another example of how distorted the thinking of the majority of Bitcoin users is

They are not in Bitcoin to use it as intended, i.e. a currency, a means of payment, and so forth. They want big companies to adopt crypto so that they can have a chance to make profits. I suspect it won't work that way. In fact, it worked for once in the past (though without big companies), but there might not be a fresh restart or second chance as many are hoping for. It doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to die or disappear, it means that its speculative value and thus its usefulness for speculation are going to shrink considerably

[talkbitcoin]

it is too soon to predict how the market is going to be in 2019 let alone make the conclusion already and call it bullish or bearish. we have just entered this year and we did it after one of the biggest dramas in bitcoin community with another one of BCASH's attacks against bitcoin that also succeeded in crashing its price.

for the market to move ahead, it first has to heal from the damage that was done to it and the investor confidence to come back as the healing process continues. then we can see the real trend shape up. which doesn't have that much chance to continue being bearish since it was bearish for over a year now.

[jhongzjhong]

~snip

for the market to move ahead, it first has to heal from the damage that was done to it and the investor confidence to come back as the healing process continues. then we can see the real trend shape up. which doesn't have that much chance to continue being bearish since it was bearish for over a year now.

But the question is how to heal the market itself if investors didn't invest? They are now afraid to invest due to this continuously down price in the market. Or we must blame those whales investors because they are continuing in manipulating the crypto market cap. However, let's wait for the result of ETF and BAKKT implementation, that probably it will help to heal the price in the market.

[wuvdoll]

People still can't see the fact that it has been just 3 weeks. We should be looking at the upcoming news instead of looking back on the history of bitcoin. No matter what happens people always look at how market has moved instead of the potential moves. There were a lot of people who believed bitcoin would go up on December because it did last year, we have seen how wrong there were, now maybe same people or maybe different people are expecting a drop in bitcoin because its January and it dropped last year.

It never does the same thing again and again every year, if it did we would all be rich by buying during summer and selling during December. We should look at the future and what it holds for bitcoin, instead of news coming up out of nowhere all the news we have in our hand says that bitcoin will be going up this year. Maybe not a whole lot but even a bit.

[ololajulo]

bitcoin is still hanging around the bottom and wants to be sure we have seen the bottom. Except for those who bought during the last bull, +$3000 is a good bottom for the last ATH. Your moderate bearish is the side ways moment we expect, to old time bitcoin users they are so relax and they are taking their time. Those that are worried are those that dont have enough fiat to deal with thing till the market gets back.

[1Referee]

People still can't see the fact that it has been just 3 weeks. We should be looking at the upcoming news instead of looking back on the history of bitcoin.

The article title is bait, but what else can you expect from news outlets? And what news are you referring to? There is no news that will lift the market back up. The history of Bitcoin in terms of price action has proven to be a more than reliable indicator of what will happen in the future, so it makes sense to pay attention to that.

It never does the same thing again and again every year, if it did we would all be rich by buying during summer and selling during December.

It seems that the charts disagree with your assessment. Admittedly, it's easy talking afterwards, but we can clearly see how similar the cycles still are.

Charlie Lee saw it coming and dumped his Litecoins and even warned people, but not many paid attention.

[exstasie]

There is no news that will lift the market back up. The history of Bitcoin in terms of price action has proven to be a more than reliable indicator of what will happen in the future, so it makes sense to pay attention to that.

I'm a big trend trader, so I'm with you. Although we've got to keep in mind that old adage, "past performance is no guarantee of future returns." That's why it's always good to take some profits off the table during each bubble. This gravy train won't last forever.

[buwaytress]

Charlie Lee saw it coming and dumped his Litecoins and even warned people, but not many paid attention.

That's something I've remembered and very, very few in my circles have, despite claiming to follow a lot of these big hodlers. In fact, if I recall more precisely, he was saying something like he's been in crypto for years, and if we can enjoy an ATH for Lite, then we can certainly prepare for $20 or something, which was way below 10% of ATH.

Wise words, however you see the guy, so we should be prepared for sub-2000 easily.

Good thing is, he's a believer in the long-term too, so if we think his low valuation will be reached, we can also think a return to ATH is a matter of when.

[exstasie]

Charlie Lee saw it coming and dumped his Litecoins and even warned people, but not many paid attention.

That's something I've remembered and very, very few in my circles have, despite claiming to follow a lot of these big hodlers. In fact, if I recall more precisely, he was saying something like he's been in crypto for years, and if we can enjoy an ATH for Lite, then we can certainly prepare for $20 or something, which was way below 10% of ATH.

Wise words, however you see the guy, so we should be prepared for sub-2000 easily.

We should certainly be prepared for that since it's very possible, but we should keep in mind Litecoin (and all altcoins) will always fall much further than Bitcoin. After the 2013 peak, Litecoin fell ~98% vs. Bitcoin's 87%. That 11% might not look like much, but deep into a bear market, it's huge. If Bitcoin fell that far in 2014 we would have bottomed near $25 instead of $150!

So while I'm prepared for the worst, I'm expecting higher. I'll be very surprised if we go sub-$2000.

[sunanbonang]

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.

now the price of bitcoin has reached $ 3,500, so in your opinion it's not bearish? if there is a sufficient price reduction in the likelihood of the price of bitcoin falling below $ 3k.

[el kaka22]

That is because bitcoin is the entry and exit points, that causes the bitcoin to move less fractionally then other coins. Think about it this way, when someone wants to get out to cash fiat currency, most of the world still have local places that allows you to sell your bitcoin to local currency and send it to your bank account right ?

Well, that means if you have bitcoin you sell bitcoin, and that's it, however if you have litecoin then you sell your litecoin and buy bitcoin with it, sell your bitcoin and get fiat. Which means litecoin is losing value by getting sold whereas bitcoin stays the same because it is both bought and sold. That is why whenever people get out of crypto in general bitcoin still drops but drops a lot less then the altcoins that are getting dumped.

[deisik]

Well, that means if you have bitcoin you sell bitcoin, and that's it, however if you have litecoin then you sell your litecoin and buy bitcoin with it, sell your bitcoin and get fiat. Which means litecoin is losing value by getting sold whereas bitcoin stays the same because it is both bought and sold. That is why whenever people get out of crypto in general bitcoin still drops but drops a lot less then the altcoins that are getting dumped

That's a poor man's logic

You could just as well say that if someone sells their litecoins for fiat, Litecoin loses value and that would do just fine as an explanation. In other words, you will have to leave no stone unturned if you actually wanted to find an exchange that would trade Bitcoin for fiat and would not trade Litecoin for the same fiat at the same time. Obviously, it is not the case with most shitcoins, but who cares about them and their holders anyway?

[BLAST2MARS]

I don't agree that it is just moderately bearish. And we never remain that way because 2018 was a devastation when we expected that btc will stay forever in the $6k price. In my opinion, we are on a severe stage of bear period.