The American doomsday by Tom Lee

[WinslowIII]

You don't understand, Draper didn't actually participate in either ico. What happened was he got involved way early before either ico was held, and then when the actual icos were being held his name was plastered all over them for his belief and involvement in them. My bet is he was given a shit ton of free coins before either ico was held in exchange for his endorsement. That's the worst case, the best case is he got coins for a small fraction of what actual ico buyers paid. In both cases, neither pumped, they both raised outrageous amounts and have just bled down - in Tezos case ico participants were lied to and didn't get any tokens for a whole fucking year after the ico was held, instead of the Fall 2017 expectation.
Do some fucking research on these, Draper comes out stinking like a fucking swindler in both situations. He took no risks, used his reputation for his great call in 2015 for a 2017 $10k price to get people to buy these shitcoins and he shouldn't be given a free pass - his reputation and credibility are damaged to anyone watching. I wouldn't listen to a GD thing he ever said again, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Did anyone force people to invest in these ICO's? Nope.

It's up to you to do basic level research, and to not invest in anything just because whatever well known entity owns a large chunk of it.

I value what Draper does for Bitcoin, and that's a whole lot more than what most of the so called Bitcoin maximalists have contributed to Bitcoin combined. He wants Bitcoin to do well, invests money into startups aiming to build on top of it, and that's something I value a lot. Whatever he ends up doing with shitcoins or ICO's is not my problem because that's not something I am interested in.

He used his name to profit off those who trusted him to be above the typical crypto slimeball. Many found out the hard way he's no different. End of story.
After the shit he pulled, and knowing that if crypto went to zero he would still be a billionaire, anybody listening to anything he has to say is a moron.

[bbc.reporter]

I cannot give any plausible reason except that I am using Tom Lee's prediction on the S&P as a counter indicator basing it on his failed predictions on bitcoin last year. I also started the thread as another joke on Tom Lee hehehe.

Also, giving it more thought, stock market crashes have always caused investors to hold safer investments like gold and bonds. I am not certain if this will change and make all of them invest in bitcoin, however there are big investors who understand the technology enough to be confident on its potential. Those big investors might also be the reason why the ETF is a possibility.

Are we talking about a stock market correction or a larger economic crash? I don't think it's possible to see a real crash in stocks (like 1929) without triggering a severe recession or depression. So it's an important question to keep in mind.

In an economic crash, all markets will generally suffer. Just look at 2008. Gold fell hard like everything else. It just didn't fall quite as hard as stocks.

I was talking about the larger economic crashes that might last for 5 or more years. Also, it does not have to be only in America, there are other countries like Venezuela or Zimbabwe that have there economies agonizing or have agonized from hyperinflation. Holding bitcoin in these countries is a reasonable solution, I reckon, which also might make it a better investment outside of those countries.

[deisik]

Between the high and low of 2008, gold fell 34% in value over a period when Bear Stearns and other huge banks collapsed and the government was engaging in bailouts

Okay, I'm not going to boil over this point

But here's the gold price chart which you wanted for everyone to see and draw their own conclusions:



Personally, I'm strongly inclined to think that this minor and short-lived correction with higher lows was mainly due to these banks selling out the contents of their gold vaults in an attempt to provide liquidity they so desperately needed back in the day. Well, maybe, it was not just banks alone as some governments might have been involved in this sell-off too, but that had nothing to do with gold falling in value on its own, which the chart clearly shows (and the fall was nowhere near 34%, just in case)

Gold had been rising prior to 2008 and continued to rise after 2008 till 2012

[BitHodler]

Holding bitcoin in these countries is a reasonable solution, I reckon, which also might make it a better investment outside of those countries.

It depends on how you look at it. It's easy to say for an outsider that Bitcoin is a reasonable solution and/or hedge, which is true, but the majority of the people there can't do anything with Bitcoin.

You can't pay for your daily necessities with Bitcoin, which is what they actually need because they live from day to day not knowing what the next one will bring. News outlets have been fooling people about crypto adoption there.

If one local store accepts payments in Bitcoin, they directly refer to it as 'Venezuela Bitcoin adoption growing' where they add tons of gibberish to the story to spice things up. Not cool.

[exstasie]

Between the high and low of 2008, gold fell 34% in value over a period when Bear Stearns and other huge banks collapsed and the government was engaging in bailouts

Okay, I'm not going to boil over this point

But here's the gold price chart which you wanted for everyone to see and draw their own conclusions:

And here is the time period in question—during the 2008 financial crisis:


You also posted a line chart, at what looks like a monthly time frame. That means all price extremes (highs and lows) are omitted and only monthly closing prices are shown. Here is a more useful chart for our purposes:



High: $1,032.35
Low: $681.75

= 33.96% decline in value

Personally, I'm strongly inclined to think that this minor and short-lived correction with higher lows was mainly due to these banks selling out the contents of their gold vaults in an attempt to provide liquidity they so desperately needed back in the day. Well, maybe, it was not just banks alone as some governments might have been involved in this sell-off too, but that had nothing to do with gold falling in value on its own

The 2008 crisis was relatively short-lived for stocks too (only a few months longer than gold's correction). It also ended with higher lows, followed by new all-time highs. That's totally irrelevant to the point at hand: the 2008 crisis saw both markets fall significantly in value. Rationalize it however you want, but that's what happened.

(and the fall was nowhere near 34%, just in case)

See above.

Gold had been rising prior to 2008 and continued to rise after 2008 till 2012

Why do you keep repeating that? The question is: "What was the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the gold market?"

And you're responding with: "Gold was in a long term bull market." That doesn't answer the question, nor does it address what actually happened to gold prices during the last financial crisis (a 34% crash in value).

[figmentofmyass]

There's no coincidence that these were 2 of the biggest icos in history, and both were endorsed by Draper. They were both also complete fucking failures for anyone participating in them. Rationalize it any way you want, but Draper's credibility went down the toilet afaic. He's just another shady name in the shadiest market the world has ever known.

they just said he was an "investor" right? that shouldn't mean much at all. i understand that it might have made gullible investors feel better about dumping money in, but it really doesn't indicate any involvement whatsoever.

i assume every successful venture capitalist has made a boatload of failed investments anyway. most startups are destined to fail. draper isn't immune to that at all and no offering in this industry will be.

i do think he's a bit of a loon, one example being his obsession with breaking california into multiple states. so i never took him that seriously anyway.

[deisik]

High: $1,032.35
Low: $681.75

= 33.96% decline in value

What does this chart show exactly? What is it, futures or spot market, and whose fixing, to begin with?

Why do you keep repeating that? The question is: "What was the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the gold market?"

And you're responding with: "Gold was in a long term bull market." That doesn't answer the question, nor does it address what actually happened to gold prices during the last financial crisis (a 34% crash in value).

I thought I explained it in my post. Did you read it?

Yes, gold was in a long term bull market, and there was no reason for it to crash due to loss of value. The part which you missed or chose to miss in my post was exactly about that. If someone or some entity dumped massive amounts of gold into the market at heavily discounted prices (as the gold market doesn't look very elastic to absorb so much gold in so little time span), you would get precisely this effect. So the correction was short lived or even one-off only probably due to liquidation of someone or something. Does that answer your question? Why are you so unhappy with it, really?

[bintangkejoraku]

this person often makes predictions that make a scene in the community, but after he said about his predictions in 2018 I would never believe what he said again.

[exstasie]

High: $1,032.35
Low: $681.75

= 33.96% decline in value

What does this chart show exactly? What is it, futures or spot market, and whose fixing, to begin with?

Physically settled daily futures (London gold market). Feel free to try and find HLOC data from another liquid gold market that looks any different. Daily futures and spot are very tightly correlated, but futures markets have much better historical data and are more liquid anyway.

Why do you keep repeating that? The question is: "What was the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the gold market?"

And you're responding with: "Gold was in a long term bull market." That doesn't answer the question, nor does it address what actually happened to gold prices during the last financial crisis (a 34% crash in value).

I thought I explained it in my post. Did you read it?

Yes, gold was in a long term bull market, and there was no reason for it to crash due to loss of value. The part which you missed or chose to miss in my post was exactly about that. If someone or some entity dumped massive amounts of gold into the market at heavily discounted prices (as the gold market doesn't look very elastic to absorb so much gold in so little time span), you would get precisely this effect.

LOL, the market dumped 34% over 9 months. It's ridiculous to claim this loss of value is due to temporary lack of market liquidity. It's much more logical to look at the significant global financial crisis and market contraction that was occurring at the time.

So the correction was short lived or even one-off only probably due to liquidation of someone or something. Does that answer your question? Why are you so unhappy with it, really?

You're the one who starting arguing with me. All I said was that gold fell during the 2008 crash, just like everything else. You denied it, so I just gave you the facts.....

[bbc.reporter]

Holding bitcoin in these countries is a reasonable solution, I reckon, which also might make it a better investment outside of those countries.

It depends on how you look at it. It's easy to say for an outsider that Bitcoin is a reasonable solution and/or hedge, which is true, but the majority of the people there can't do anything with Bitcoin.

You can't pay for your daily necessities with Bitcoin, which is what they actually need because they live from day to day not knowing what the next one will bring. News outlets have been fooling people about crypto adoption there.

If one local store accepts payments in Bitcoin, they directly refer to it as 'Venezuela Bitcoin adoption growing' where they add tons of gibberish to the story to spice things up. Not cool.

However, we should remember that these countries are Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Countries which are suffering or have suffered from hyperinflation. Their people might not use bitcoin as currency for daily necessities, but they can use it to store their wealth unless gold or the US dollar are easier to buy.

[buwaytress]

Holding bitcoin in these countries is a reasonable solution, I reckon, which also might make it a better investment outside of those countries.

It depends on how you look at it. It's easy to say for an outsider that Bitcoin is a reasonable solution and/or hedge, which is true, but the majority of the people there can't do anything with Bitcoin.

You can't pay for your daily necessities with Bitcoin, which is what they actually need because they live from day to day not knowing what the next one will bring. News outlets have been fooling people about crypto adoption there.

If one local store accepts payments in Bitcoin, they directly refer to it as 'Venezuela Bitcoin adoption growing' where they add tons of gibberish to the story to spice things up. Not cool.

However, we should remember that these countries are Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Countries which are suffering or have suffered from hyperinflation. Their people might not use bitcoin as currency for daily necessities, but they can use it to store their wealth unless gold or the US dollar are easier to buy.

Initially, I thought it to also be true about Bitcoin not really being useful in these countries. Never mind Venezuela, finding someone providing a useful service or product in my own country isn't easy, and it's among the most technologically developed in the region.

But speaking to Venezuelans, and now even Iranians and Turks facing inflation, simply being able to hold value in Bitcoin, being able to then transfer that value abroad, and now finding it relatively easy to find a willing buyer for us dollar or euro... Makes Bitcoin absolutely a viable alternative.

[deisik]

So the correction was short lived or even one-off only probably due to liquidation of someone or something. Does that answer your question? Why are you so unhappy with it, really?

You're the one who starting arguing with me. All I said was that gold fell during the 2008 crash, just like everything else. You denied it, so I just gave you the facts.....

Wasn't it you who asked about the reasons why gold fell in 2008?

Actually, I didn't start arguing with you either. I just questioned the validity of your claim, and then I admitted that I was not going to quarrel over that point. Regarding your question, I see no reason why gold should have fallen in value on its own. To make things clear and not to engage in further futile debates, by falling in value on its own, I mean demand evaporating, not supply surging for some unspecified reason (e.g. due to massive sell-offs)

Basically, the abrupt (relative to a decade long growth) crash looks to me more like a sudden explosion in supply, not demand running low. And if you have to sell something in amounts which the market can't easily absorb, you would do better and get better price if you start selling slow allowing the market to rebuild itself and provide firm support. It is exactly how the Mt. Gox custodian had been selling bitcoins, without crashing the price (too much)

[deisik]

Initially, I thought it to also be true about Bitcoin not really being useful in these countries. Never mind Venezuela, finding someone providing a useful service or product in my own country isn't easy, and it's among the most technologically developed in the region.

But speaking to Venezuelans, and now even Iranians and Turks facing inflation, simply being able to hold value in Bitcoin, being able to then transfer that value abroad, and now finding it relatively easy to find a willing buyer for us dollar or euro... Makes Bitcoin absolutely a viable alternative.

You basically repeat what I have been telling here for years

That it is unlikely we are going to see mass adoption of Bitcoin as a means of exchange in the near future. But it doesn't in the least mean that Bitcoin is useless and worthless. It is perfectly equipped for remittances as you don't depend on third parties (read, rogue banks and governments alike) as well as the fee you have to pay doesn't depend on the amount transacted (so-called flat fees). If this area of application expands dramatically in the coming years, we may also expect the prices to stabilize and Bitcoin's use as a store of value expand as well

[snipie]

Tom Lee should go be an Uber driver, he killed his reputation with idiotic predictions. If bitcoin doesn't cross 6 figures in a couple years, Mcafee and Draper will join him as crypto analyst clowns.

When the bitcoin price was near 20.000$ we were all dreaming it will moon further to 100.000$ which didn't happen. Maybe after the next halving we will see the 6 digits?

[el kaka22]

You think they posses wealth at all ? I mean you think a Venezuelan who is having trouble finding food is going to just put their "wealth" into bitcoin somehow ? This is a whole country that lost weight because of how poor they are, do you really think all they care about is money at this moment ? I mean think about it, even if you had all the money in the world, the country itself is running out of food constantly, whenever they manage to gather enough money together they try to get food from other countries and than it ends very quickly and they are hungry yet again.

People died of starvation there every single day since this problem started. You think those people should just put their money into bitcoin? What money, what wealth ? We are talking about people who die of starvation, there is no wealth there at all.

[Slow death]

I cannot stop laughing.

I thought after that:

NOV 28, 2018

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Bear Markets Are a ‘Golden Time’ to Be in Crypto

DEC 13, 2018

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Says Fair Value of Bitcoin to Reach $150K Per Coin

the guy would stop appearing on news channels, because those erroneous predictions are destroying his reputation

NOV 20, 2018

Tom Lee Maintains $15,000 Year-End BTC Prediction Despite Market Crash

we are already in 2019 and the price is below $4000

[BitHodler]

Their people might not use bitcoin as currency for daily necessities, but they can use it to store their wealth unless gold or the US dollar are easier to buy.

I'm sure that there is a small percentage of people there with enough capital to park a chunk of it in gold or Bitcoin, but what can you do with it when you run out of funds at one point?

What people there need is the US dollar, which is easier to buy into, and easier to utilize in case you need it, because it's possible to spend it almost everywhere. Stability is a key element, and that's what the US dollar offers.

With Bitcoin you don't know what its value is going to be tomorrow or next year. People assume it will go up, and it likely will, but what if it doesn't? It's too much of a risk since there are no certainties here.

[bbc.reporter]

You think they posses wealth at all ? I mean you think a Venezuelan who is having trouble finding food is going to just put their "wealth" into bitcoin somehow ? This is a whole country that lost weight because of how poor they are, do you really think all they care about is money at this moment ? I mean think about it, even if you had all the money in the world, the country itself is running out of food constantly, whenever they manage to gather enough money together they try to get food from other countries and than it ends very quickly and they are hungry yet again.

People died of starvation there every single day since this problem started. You think those people should just put their money into bitcoin? What money, what wealth ? We are talking about people who die of starvation, there is no wealth there at all.

Venezuela is in a financial crisis, not in armageddon hehehe.

@BitHodler. However, it might be safer to hold a volatile but valuable asset or currency than to hold a fiat currency that cannot hold any value or has no value.

[1Referee]

With Bitcoin you don't know what its value is going to be tomorrow or next year. People assume it will go up, and it likely will, but what if it doesn't? It's too much of a risk since there are no certainties here.

The same basically applies to people in Venezuela using their native fiat currency. Today you can buy your groceries with X amount of fiat, while the next week you need twice as much in fiat to buy the same groceries.

The Bolivar lost way more of its value than Bitcoin from its near $20,000 peak to where we are right now. In other words, buying Bitcoin at near peak levels (most people buy way lower since only a few people buy and sell the top) and holding it till today was a better deal than holding X amount in Bolivars within the same time frame. The good thing here is that Bitcoin will be going up again so your paper losses will turn into paper profits, while the Bolivar will keep tanking.

Even a can of tuna with a limited shelf life is a better store of value than the Bolivar.

[hatshepsut93]

The same basically applies to people in Venezuela using their native fiat currency. Today you can buy your groceries with X amount of fiat, while the next week you need twice as much in fiat to buy the same groceries.

The Bolivar lost way more of its value than Bitcoin from its near $20,000 peak to where we are right now. In other words, buying Bitcoin at near peak levels (most people buy way lower since only a few people buy and sell the top) and holding it till today was a better deal than holding X amount in Bolivars within the same time frame. The good thing here is that Bitcoin will be going up again so your paper losses will turn into paper profits, while the Bolivar will keep tanking.

Even a can of tuna with a limited shelf life is a better store of value than the Bolivar.

Sure, losing 80% of your value is better than losing nearly all of it, but still it's pretty bad. Imagine someone from Venezuela putting their savings in Bitcoin at the ATH and now having only 20% of the original investment - this can be extremely devastating.

Of course Bitcoin will recover and will eventually surpass the previous ATH, but it takes time, maybe years, and poor people might not have it, as they struggle to survive every single day in Venezuela and other extremely poor countries. It's only easy to say "HODL" when you've put a small amount of your savings and wouldn't get too hurt even if Bitcoin goes to zero.