Grin Observer - GRN/BTC - Price Movement and Discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Grin Observer
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Whenever there is a significant change in market depth, please update this thread with a new depth chart, and a good price chart with some TA is also welcome, feel free to comment on these if you have something to worth contributing)

Posting guide lines:
 Please lets keep this thread clean. ( I will be removing any off topic posts )
 Do not post random comments on this thread, unless it is directly related to the last wall update (ex. The 1K ask was was NOT sold into, it was removed after being tested)

as requested, i have started a new thread.
this thread is now a self-moderated topic.
I will try and keep this thread clean, with only facts, current trends, past price movements, depth charts, etc.
I promise to not delete post simply because i do not agree with the bearish TA.

thank you for your input!

We needed more regulation around this bitch.

the rules of this thread is an attempt to keep this thread from having +1000 post when price is doing big moves, and instead relay important indicators during critical moments.
also when the market is more calm we can expect to see wall posts and TA price charts, back to back without any relevant chatting, making easier to analyze.
there are other threads where speculators can discuss their sentiment, just not here...

That 1000+ page thread was getting kinda useless.

thats fine too,
I'm looking for quality charts or good TA bearish or bullish.

asking good questions example....

Interesting pattern I've noticed. It's been sort of bouncing upwards for the last 4 days. Is there a technical term for this sort of thing?

is also welcome here.

just don't be posting about your "FEELINGS" and you won't get delete.  

Disclaimer: All posts in this thread are for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this thread should be construed as financial advice.

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[HairyMaclairy]

Some basic Grin TA

We started with the expected huge spike on zero volume, followed by a few days of price discovery.  A bottom was found around 0.0006 followed by a short period of consolidation and now starting to trend upwards.  We had a period of resistance around 0.00125 which was starting to look like a local top, but we have just broken through that and now sitting on 0.001269 (Bitforex).  

The chart is naturally sparse without details but there is a possible resistance point at 0.0019 assuming we get that far. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Link to the CoinGecko page with basic exchange information.  The Hotbit volume looks like it is fake with numerous trades recorded in the spread between published bid / asks without those public bid / asks ever moving. 

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/grin

[HairyMaclairy]

In short term price action, a recent rally to 0.0013 and then bounce off.  Can we break through on third attempt?

[bbc.reporter]

Grin is following bitcointalk.org's traditions. Will it be the next bitcoin hehehe?

In any case, there are not much grin distributed for the market to discover the real price of each coin yet. This present grin market is easily manipulated, I reckon.

[infofront]

Nice thread you've got here. You're just missing Nazis.

[HairyMaclairy]

Can I be honest?  

I love the tech but think the infinite emissions policy is broken.

And the dev team haven’t put themselves in a strong position by announcing there will be regular hard forks.  

So soon enough someone will hard fork it with a 4 year halvening cycle.  

Which begs the question - what happens to Grin with a contentious hard fork?

It is not broken. Infinite supply assures better and fairer distribution because it discourages hoarding, which would also make the market discover a fair price for each grin.

It might not be perfect, but what coin has a perfect distribution?

The rest of your post is useless speculation.

Grin is designed to discourage hoarding by having an aggressive inflation schedule.  The risk here of course is that supply exceeds demand during bear markets.  

Basic economics teaches us that the price is driven towards zero when supply exceeds demand.  

Of course the price is unlikely to ever reach zero, simply because there will be demand just at a much lower price.  All of us would be happy to buy 1 million Grin for $1, given how powerful the underlying tech is.  Grin *will* have buyers of last resort, so long as the tech is not fundamentally broken.  

It just means that the price will likely stay depressed over the long term and could it make more volatile.  It's a funny sort of analysis to say that Grin is likely to be more used as a currency because it is more volatile, than say Bitcoin.  

[HairyMaclairy]

Nice thread you've got here. You're just missing Nazis.

Nazis posting quality TA are fine.  

Break out past 0.0013.  Bullish. 

[infofront]

Some have been looking to Ravencoin's early days for comparison. It was something of a big deal last year, though not as much as Grin. The cypherpunk pedigree and mantle of "possibly the next bitcoin" were similar. Bonkers early emission rate also very similar.

It launch in early Jan. 2018, but I can't find good trade data before ~Apr. 2018, so comparisons are tough to come by.

[HairyMaclairy]

Interesting comparison.  I didn't pay any attention to RVN at the time so don't know a lot about it.  

Edit:  the concept sounds appealing - tokens on Bitcoin - but I think it would need to be a sidechain to have a desirable level of security for me.  

Grin continues to climb.  Now at 0.0014

[bitebits]

Lurking from the shadows, interesting thread.

[Cryptotourist]

Nice one Hairy!

What this thread needs on it's first page, is a historical snapshot:

[Last of the V8s]

Can we talk about how the op constantly criticises the grin team and their decisions? In order to manipulate the price down? Or is that considered "off topic"? Whatever that may mean?

[consideritdone]

Grin is mooning https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/grin 

[Cryptotourist]

Can we talk about how the op constantly criticises the grin team and their decisions? In order to manipulate the price down? Or is that considered "off topic"? Whatever that may mean?

Sure we can talk, but isn't that the name of the game? Saying one thing and doing the other.
Whale investors prefer cheap Grin you know.

[kurious]

Over 0.0016 now, an impressive 39% increase.

I've been waiting for an exchange I'm already using to list it, but it seems I am missing out on some decent volatility.  

I am expecting Grin to follow a pattern a little more akin to Monero's, which had a lot of interest in advance, no institutional backing, idealistic devs, fair launch etc.  Monero's initial trading range was higher than it got back to for many months, then there was no serious rise until two years had passed.  

The lack of major exchange listing when supply is relatively low is balancing things right now. It's a Goldilocks price.  I would expect more spikes up as larger exchanges come on board, but medium term a slide as the large emission takes it's toll and supply swamps demand in a flat(ish) general market that is still seeing BTC dominance high.

Long term (and the market is more mature, so things should move faster than when Monero appeared) if the tech proves its use case, supply and demand will tend to balance out and of course there should be a bull run to help out.

TLDR:
IMHO: Probably no rush to buy - but if you want in now, be prepared to trade, average down and accumulate for a while.

[HairyMaclairy]

Can we talk about how the op constantly criticises the grin team and their decisions? In order to manipulate the price down? Or is that considered "off topic"? Whatever that may mean?

I would be very happy to discuss the emissions schedule with you.  It is entirely possible you might change my mind. I am trying quite hard to be open minded about it.   

So please go ahead. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Now up 58% today. We are running very hot at the moment - entering spike / bubble territory imho but you can never really tell how long these things will run




Edit.  WTF 5 minutes later

[Last of the V8s]

  Come to think, have probably been quite hypocritically manipulative enough myself on the political side. So let me just say it's been an honour to watch you at work

[Cryptotourist]

Come to think, have probably been quite hypocritically manipulative enough myself on the political side. So let me just say it's been an honour to watch you at work

^^^. +1 GO's merit