Is 2019 the new 2015?

[Febo]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.





Night is darkest right before the dawn.

[1715583997]

1715583997

[1715583997]

1715583997

[1715583997]

1715583997

[BitHodler]

While there definitely are plenty of similarities, I prefer to remain conservative. It wouldn't even surprise me if the whole year of 2019 turns out to be similar to what we are subject to right now, which are tight range movements.

I want to see new local highs instead of continuous lower lows, and as long as that isn't the case, there is no reason to be optimistic about the market. 2017 was a crazy year, so there is always a possibility to see lower levels.

Positive aspect is that most people do expect the price to go down further, which means that they may have sold in order to buy back lower. Once these people realize they made the wrong decision they'll fomo in again to not miss out.

[MuffinMaster]

In my opinion, this is how it will be. After such a long period of falling prices, investors (those big and small ones) have lost confidence in cryptocurrencies. Everyone thinks that the cryptocurrencies are too unstable to earn money on them. In order to restore confidence, the cryptocurrency market needs about a year of stabilization and investors will start coming back.

[buwaytress]

Wasn't in the market at 2015, in fact was distinctly unaware of price at all all the time til I properly owned by first satoshis in 2016, so if that's a marker of how price wasn't all that important about Bitcoin in 2015, then I will be the last person to mind if this year turns out to be that!

[deisik]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190. Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year

I wish it were so

But it doesn't look like this at all. I actively traded in 2015 and thus have "first-hand" feelings of the price action back in the year. And today (i.e. after the last 3 weeks into the new year) it looks and feels very different. These days we see mostly stagnating prices, while in 2015 it was an entirely different picture in this regard. Prices constantly moved up and down in the range of 5-10% every other day, with regular major corrections and rebounds. It was an active market in 2015, today it is mostly a dead one

[exstasie]

I probably sound like a broken record by now, but it's way too early to say. There hasn't been any technical sign of a significant bottom yet, nor have we established a medium term uptrend to suggest the bear market might be over. A sideways year of accumulation like 2015 is definitely possible, but it's the best case scenario.

We could still be waiting for a V-bottom like January 2015 to mark the bottom. In that case, we haven't seen the bottom yet nor begun the long sideways period. Alternatively, we could be in for another year of downtrending just like 2018.

[livingfree]

We will see but it's an interesting comparison for year 2015 which determines positive ending for this year. But one thing that we can be sure of, cryptocurrency market is totally unpredictable.

It seems that JP is FUDDING again about bitcoin.
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-valuable-in-a-dystopia-but-not-anywhere-else-jp-morgan-analyst/

Like what happened when Jamie Dimon FUD before. It's an accumulation period where institutions are trying to get ready so I think $8,000 by the end of the year is an ideal prediction.

[exstasie]

It seems that JP is FUDDING again about bitcoin.
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-valuable-in-a-dystopia-but-not-anywhere-else-jp-morgan-analyst/

Like what happened when Jamie Dimon FUD before. It's an accumulation period where institutions are trying to get ready so I think $8,000 by the end of the year is an ideal prediction.

It's either intentional FUD, or their analysts tend to fall into the same sentiment cycles as retail investors. At the top, JP Morgan analysts were predicting Bitcoin to become a traditional asset class like gold. Now that they think the opposite, you can guess how close we are to the bottom.

[STT]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

I think whats more interesting is what happened the year after this where it held above the 400 area, which was about 23% of the total decline.   So on here



If we repeat that % scenario now I can state a few prices that would relate.   7150 would be the same 23.6% recovery point, above the previous 6k area.

I think more leverage was involved in the 2017 price peaks, where as the 2014 scenario came from the Mt.Gox prices being higher there then everywhere else.    I dont believe in a repeat exactly, we just want to observe positive behaviour and I would guess a large part of that is time or digest price movements and then build

[aceptamosbitcoin]

I think we are in a completely different state of bitcoin development and adoption.

Back in 2015 governments doesn't care about crypto, tax agencies too, ICO was a rare exotic and so on. Now regulations are more tight and ICO euphoria is behind us. We will need some powerful catalyzer to see the down and new highs.

[BitBustah]

No I don't think it will compare at all, if anything 2018 was like 2015 and we should be beginning a new bull run anytime now.  Just be patient and good things will come.

[pooya87]

we won't be able to tell until the rally starts and is on its way and that can take an unknown amount of time. with that said i think we have already had that big sink that happened in 2015 since that was mostly with FUD and manipulative whale sales, similarly we had it at $6k when the manipulation and FUD caused the crash to below prices. although it is taking longer than 2015 to recover from this.
in any case i think the drops are over and there isn't much room left to manipulate it otherwise either so there is only one direction left to go.

[tomahawk9]

Well, 2015 was the year prior to the bitcoin halving so, maybe we'll see the same cycle this year as we get closer to next halving in 2020? I don't know, I don't want to draw any type conclusions so early and be overly optimistic. It's January, we should give it a few more months, or wait until the second half of the year, then people might come up with some type of analysis to see if we're actually having the same pattern in market movements.

[onrise]

Things might be much different than 2015 as in those years not many people were aware about the crypto currency and those who even knew where not sure if it was bubble at that time or not. But now people know the history and every knows about crypto and its future potential how it can grow and change many things.

[figmentofmyass]

in any case i think the drops are over and there isn't much room left to manipulate it otherwise either so there is only one direction left to go.

"there isn't much room"? sure there is. there's plenty of room between here and $0.

I think we are in a completely different state of bitcoin development and adoption.

Back in 2015 governments doesn't care about crypto, tax agencies too, ICO was a rare exotic and so on. Now regulations are more tight and ICO euphoria is behind us. We will need some powerful catalyzer to see the down and new highs.

it was in 2013 when we started seeing memos/guidance from agencies like FINCEN and the IRS. we didn't have ICOs back then, but we did have securities and ponzi schemes. everything just gets bigger and bigger with each cycle, but it's not fundamentally different. we don't need a catalyst for a bottom to form. what we need is for sellers to dry up.

[davis196]

Nope.2019 isn't the new 2015,because the bitcoin price isn't 300 USD.The level of awareness and media coverage regarding bitcoin is way higher,compared with 2015.Many people that were joking about bitcoin back then,are changing their minds and accepting the fact that bitcoin is here to stay.

[livingfree]

It seems that JP is FUDDING again about bitcoin.
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-valuable-in-a-dystopia-but-not-anywhere-else-jp-morgan-analyst/

Like what happened when Jamie Dimon FUD before. It's an accumulation period where institutions are trying to get ready so I think $8,000 by the end of the year is an ideal prediction.

It's either intentional FUD, or their analysts tend to fall into the same sentiment cycles as retail investors. At the top, JP Morgan analysts were predicting Bitcoin to become a traditional asset class like gold. Now that they think the opposite, you can guess how close we are to the bottom.

The market reacted accordingly and if we are sure about it, yes we're near at the bottom and there's gonna be the driving force that will push the price again upwards.

This kind of intentional FUD gives everyone a signal that we should be prepared soon. Whether this year is like 2019 or not, we'll know at the end of the year. But as of now, it's getting interested and more exciting on how low and high bitcoin will reach.

[STT]

^^ I dont think the nominal price matters that much, its a ratio of demand against supply.    We do have more Bitcoin available in 2019 then we did in 2015, thats the process of mining.
However also demand is greater, awareness is probably much more and its arguable that BTC has a wider range of usage in various contracts or facilities to exchange and trade.      I still think the hidden factor is whats occurring with USD and its QE unwinding, where does that value get used

[romero121]

As in the Op we're experiencing almost the same growth pattern that has taken place in the year 2015. The price was found to stagger within few limits for a much longer time period. Now the same is happening with the price moving to and fro within $3500-$4100. Today the market has gone low to $3500 in recent days. Users have begun to speculate about the Chinese New Year making a relation with the growth of cryptocurrency.

[Slow death]

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171.  Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190.  Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

Night is darkest right before the dawn.

in 2015 we had a very small market and the few people who were in that market already dreamed of high prices and had high expectations, so that every good news made the price increase. Today things are very different, they are different because the people's expectations have been broken along with the high losses from $20,000 to $3,500. And because of this people have moved away from the crypto world. We now need institutional investors and regulations to bring greater confidence to this market. we need stop scammers and volume manipulations. we need good quality projects for this market to be respected and reliable