Is 2019 the new 2015?

[Taki]

I dont know why everyone expect repeating of some previous year. Why bitcoin should behave the same? I think every year is unique and this year is going to be special as well. Of course, we can find something similar in every year, but there is nothing special to search, bitcoin consists from ups and downs. As I love to say - we should hope for better, but also we should to be prepared for worst.

[deisik]

I dont know why everyone expect repeating of some previous year

In simple terms, because people want to believe

For example, if you want to believe that Bitcoin is going to crash further, you will probably come up with the idea like we have been in a bear market for over a year already and there is no chance that it is going to change soon (actually, it is a damn good assumption, at least statistically). On the other hand, if we want to believe that Bitcoin has already bottomed or going to bottom very soon, you will start to draw analogies with 2015. But ultimately, neither approach is internally correct as it is only a matter of belief or faith, even though one can turn out to be correct in the end (just like a broken clock is right twice a day)

[Febo]

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough

Why can't we expect the price to drop so much?

Many altcoins including the top ones have dropped over 90% already (e.g. Litecoin has fallen 17 times from its ATH to its recent low). But how will Bitcoin be much different from them if things turn really bad for it? 3k is still a huge price from any point of view (other than looking at it from the 2017 highs) and there is a lot of room below, so to speak. I hope it won't be like that but saying it is impossible is not a good way to go in both trading and investing

Are you serious. 99.9% drop would be price of Bitcoin at $20. Bitcoin will not go under $170 that was bottom 4 years ago unless something fundamental changes. And It will not go under much higher then that 4 years old bottom since many things dd changed in that time. Actually Bitcoin was not under $20 fro full 6 years. That is more then half time of its existence.

[Oilacris]

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough

Why can't we expect the price to drop so much?

Many altcoins including the top ones have dropped over 90% already (e.g. Litecoin has fallen 17 times from its ATH to its recent low). But how will Bitcoin be much different from them if things turn really bad for it? 3k is still a huge price from any point of view (other than looking at it from the 2017 highs) and there is a lot of room below, so to speak. I hope it won't be like that but saying it is impossible is not a good way to go in both trading and investing

Are you serious. 99.9% drop would be price of Bitcoin at $20. Bitcoin will not go under $170 that was bottom 4 years ago unless something fundamental changes. And It will not go under much higher then that 4 years old bottom since many things dd changed in that time. Actually Bitcoin was not under $20 fro full 6 years. That is more then half time of its existence.

After all of those hard forks was done, no one would think that bitcoin price would drop to $20 these days. A lot was happening in the past and it surely makes bitcoin as worthy as people adapt to it during its lows and look at it now. It is gaining some fame through all of the people in the world just like the stock market.

[deisik]

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough

Why can't we expect the price to drop so much?

Many altcoins including the top ones have dropped over 90% already (e.g. Litecoin has fallen 17 times from its ATH to its recent low). But how will Bitcoin be much different from them if things turn really bad for it? 3k is still a huge price from any point of view (other than looking at it from the 2017 highs) and there is a lot of room below, so to speak. I hope it won't be like that but saying it is impossible is not a good way to go in both trading and investing

Are you serious. 99.9% drop would be price of Bitcoin at $20. Bitcoin will not go under $170 that was bottom 4 years ago unless something fundamental changes. And It will not go under much higher then that 4 years old bottom since many things dd changed in that time. Actually Bitcoin was not under $20 fro full 6 years. That is more then half time of its existence

Honestly, I don't expect Bitcoin to go under 1k myself

But in my post above I referred to a sort of Black Swan event, i.e. something that could potentially lead to prices this low. You might have heard about a bug recently discovered in the Bitcoin vanilla wallet, haven't you? If exploited, it would be that Black Swan event capable of wreaking total chaos in the cryptocurrency world and likely rendering Bitcoin useless and worthless in less than no time

I think the Bitcoin developers should develop an emergency plan if something as dangerous is going to happen for real. I don't know what it could be but maybe instantly freezing the network and then rolling back the blockchain in a consistent and reliable manner. I know this is not a good thing but it will be the lesser of two evils. And we have already been there anyway in 2012, if I'm not mistaken

[JohnBitCo]

I dont know why everyone expect repeating of some previous year. Why bitcoin should behave the same? I think every year is unique and this year is going to be special as well. Of course, we can find something similar in every year, but there is nothing special to search, bitcoin consists from ups and downs. As I love to say - we should hope for better, but also we should to be prepared for worst.

No, I think bitcoin chart follow the same pattern again and again. Even though the adatopion of bitcoin is far more now than in 2015 but the charting pattern are almost similar.

it could happen because I see there is good news for bitcoin in 2020 there will be a halving, if you look at some halving events that occur in bitcoin it will make the price of bitcoin very expensive, so wait until 2020.

Yes, last time bitcoin price spiked at halving and I am thinking the same will happen on the next bitcoin Halving. I am waiting for 2020 where we will see next bull run for bitcoins.

[Febo]

This are 4 years of Bitcoin cycle. Both 2015 and 2019 are the "Hard times create strong men" year.

[Google+]

I dont know why everyone expect repeating of some previous year. Why bitcoin should behave the same? I think every year is unique and this year is going to be special as well. Of course, we can find something similar in every year, but there is nothing special to search, bitcoin consists from ups and downs. As I love to say - we should hope for better, but also we should to be prepared for worst.

many people still compare something that happened last year because they saw from the graph that happened and saw from the journey of the cryptocurrency price to see the development of cryptocurrency from year to year.

[bitcoin31]

We cannot know if this year is look like in the year of 2015 because I want the value of the bitcoin to increase again. When bull run started we cannot know too what is the possible price of the bitcoin we hope more than 10,000 dollars we see so we can get more money. But now there is no bull run happen maybe the sign of the bull run last year december stopped and we need to wait more.

[Herbert2020]

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough

Why can't we expect the price to drop so much?

for the same reason why you can't expect the price to continue rising without a stop and reversal. at some point after the rise from $900 to $20000 it had to stop and come back to the balanced level. and now is the same, it has to go back up to go back to balanced levels.

Many altcoins including the top ones have dropped over 90% already (e.g. Litecoin has fallen 17 times from its ATH to its recent low). But how will Bitcoin be much different from them if things turn really bad for it?

are you seriously comparing shitcoins that drop 90% and more to bitcoin?!!
they drop because they are pump and dump and have to drop because their value is fake and purely based on speculation since they have no other usages in real world.
when bitcoin drops, it still has the real usages in real world so there is additional demand on top of the speculations.

3k is still a huge price from any point of view (other than looking at it from the 2017 highs) and there is a lot of room below, so to speak. I hope it won't be like that but saying it is impossible is not a good way to go in both trading and investing

just because 3000 is a big number, it doesn't make it a high price. what's next? you are going to say $312000 is too high for Berkshire Hathaway price and it has a lot of room to go down?!!

[wildey]

yes, this is truly a similar year, except that in 2015 there were not so many negative things, and now there are many negative things spread. however, I think, the potential this year has is the same as in 2015. I am sure, mid-year will show a good development for the price of bitcoin. maybe at the end of this year the price of bitcoin could be above $ 5,000.

[deisik]

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough

Why can't we expect the price to drop so much?

for the same reason why you can't expect the price to continue rising without a stop and reversal. at some point after the rise from $900 to $20000 it had to stop and come back to the balanced level. and now is the same, it has to go back up to go back to balanced levels

That's a crappy argument if you ask me

There is no and cannot be "same reason" here. No asset can rise indefinitely but that doesn't in the least mean that it can't fall to 0, and this is particularly true with respect to speculative ones, like Bitcoin or whatever. According to this logic, the stock of dotcom companies couldn't turn into garbage just because these companies couldn't rise to infinity either. Somehow I thought people have actually learned something after the 2018 crash

Many altcoins including the top ones have dropped over 90% already (e.g. Litecoin has fallen 17 times from its ATH to its recent low). But how will Bitcoin be much different from them if things turn really bad for it?

are you seriously comparing shitcoins that drop 90% and more to bitcoin?!!

Bitcoin can easily follow them. But if you want to believe (Bitcoin or otherwise), who am I to stop you?

3k is still a huge price from any point of view (other than looking at it from the 2017 highs) and there is a lot of room below, so to speak. I hope it won't be like that but saying it is impossible is not a good way to go in both trading and investing

just because 3000 is a big number, it doesn't make it a high price. what's next? you are going to say $312000 is too high for Berkshire Hathaway price and it has a lot of room to go down?!!

0 is the lowest price potentially possible for the Berkshire Hathaway stock. Much bigger institutions failed (see Lehman Brothers)

[STT]

a bug recently discovered in the Bitcoin vanilla wallet, haven't you? If exploited

Sounds big but thats not the protocol just some software that interacts with it.    Mt. Gox was a pretty big event for disturbing the price, it was the main exchange for volume of Bitcoin traded but it still wasn't important enough to call it off for the whole deal.   It was just a mistake for too many people to rely on a centralised website like that.   So far as I know there isnt a giant dependence on any 1 wallet so I dont see a bug would be as big news as previous failure we saw and then moved past

[1Referee]

yes, this is truly a similar year, except that in 2015 there were not so many negative things, and now there are many negative things spread.

What negative things are you referring to? Bitcoin is fundamentally much further in every way than it was back in 2015, there are legacy institutions building infrastructure around Bitcoin, and the Lightning Network is exploding and actually experiencing use. Positivity after positivity, yet people are blinded by the bear market they find more interesting than what's happening under the hood.

Ah well, people apparently want to see the price go up in order to believe that Bitcoin is doing well. 

[deisik]

Ah well, people apparently want to see the price go up in order to believe that Bitcoin is doing well. 

But isn't that a valid assumption?

If Bitcoin is actually doing well as you say, why doesn't its price grow after all? Maybe, things are not as good as they seem to you? For example, you refer to an expansion in Lightning Network use but how do you gauge this expansion really? If you are you looking at the data from 1ml.com, 632 bitcoins can't make a dent in Bitcoin's total supply. We would need something to the tune of 100k bitcoins removed from the market to make a meaningful impact on Bitcoin's price (but that may take years)

[b3j0]

that is a very extraordinary comparison, but in my opinion it is not that easy to predict the price of bitcoin. if the price of bitcoin only reaches $ 8k at the end of the year, that means bitcoin failed to reach the new ATH.

[Febo]

that is a very extraordinary comparison, but in my opinion it is not that easy to predict the price of bitcoin. if the price of bitcoin only reaches $ 8k at the end of the year, that means bitcoin failed to reach the new ATH.

I give like 1% chances BTC will reach new ATH this year. Why do you think that Bitcoin will make a x10 in short 11 months? 1% is extremely extraordinary.   My prediction seems quite ordinary.

[STT]

Before the high in 2017, we had 2016 and the rise before the bigger move.     We really are not at that point of even previous year prior to any bigger move, so how could we really predict a new high.

It is very unlikely, possible overall but it would make more sense to see a situation develop beforehand enabling that bigger rise.   Its generally how these things go, theres a swell before the big waves appear in practise

[mirakal]

that is a very extraordinary comparison, but in my opinion it is not that easy to predict the price of bitcoin. if the price of bitcoin only reaches $ 8k at the end of the year, that means bitcoin failed to reach the new ATH.

I give like 1% chances BTC will reach new ATH this year. Why do you think that Bitcoin will make a x10 in short 11 months? 1% is extremely extraordinary.   My prediction seems quite ordinary.

That's pretty conservative, I think we loss our faith with BTC already.

1% is tantamount to saying it's not gonna make an ATH this year, well for me I'm very much thankful already if I see it rise to $10,000
but I would not loss my hope that this year we can still achieve the best price, it all depends on the news, if there is a big news and people FOMO, then
we know already what's next, we could be surprise with the new ATH.

[btc78]

This is not Micheal J Fox movie(Back to the Future)that past can be bring back lol

But theres alot of similarities if we will look back at 2015 ,though this is not enough reason to expect another good things to come and fall for traps again.theres some issue of manipulation and we must consider those before putting another amount again.but if that will happen then it is something cause for celebration